I guarantee you his recruiting class is going to be top 10 next year unless they have another one of these 15 man classes. But if it's closer to 25 it will be top 10. A top 20 class at Stanford is like a top 5 class at UM. Don't mistake being located in California makes it easy to recruit players to Stanford.
Using Rivals, Michigan's 2015 class had a 3.29 star average (coincidently right above Stanford's 3.27) which is #21 when ranked by star average. Our was 3.48 which was tied with Texas for 10th when ranked by star average. Our star average ranking (#10) almost mirrored our actually class ranking (#9). Guaranteeing a top-10 class is bold when half the top ten every year is comprised of SEC teams (six of the top 10 for the 2015 class were SEC teams). The highest ranked class that had a star average at our below Michigan's was Mississippi State at #16 (3.14), followed by Stanford at #18 (3.27). The lowest star average in the top 10 classes was 3.4 by #10 TAMU. Michigan not only needs to get more recruits, but better recruits.
I'd recommend using the 247 composite since it pulls in all of the recruiting services numbers and calculates a composite number which helps eliminate any bias any one service may have. FYI OSU is #6. Having said that, I'm basing it off of A) Michigan's brand name (I mean hell hoke recruited like an animal his first couple full classes) B) Harbaugh's name, and C) as I said it would have to be a fuller class (at least low 20's). Regarding their current recruiting class and their poor numbers, I wouldn't compare them to what you're going to get next year. He had literally no relationships built, and less than a month before signing day. Urban had over 2 months and had the benefit of the PSU situation (take out Noah Spence, Tommy schutt, cam Williams, armani reeves, and Joe O'Conner and look at that class ranking). So if they have the numbers, yes I'd be absolutely shocked if they aren't top 10.
Harbaugh had a chance to come in and make the same type of recruiting statement and failed huge. And as @Buckeyes86 posted above, David Shaw has recruited better at Stanford than did Harbaugh. As for the "Michigan brand name", it sure the fuck didn't help them for the 2015 class, now did it? It took him over three weeks on the job before he got his first commit, and of the eight commits he got for the 2015 class, only two were 4* (QB Gentry, and TE Wheatley who happens to be a legacy recruit). So, no, he's not a guarantee to get a top 10 class next year.
First off, perhaps Shaw's classes were better because the Stanford program had been rebuilt and was coming off a 12-1 season whereas Harbaugh had to rebuild the entire program and come off a 1-11 season? Eh probably not. Also again, you can't point to an outlier year where Hoke was a joke and they came off a 5-7 season. People like yourself can pretend Michigan doesn't have a great brand (I can't believe people convince themselves they don't), but to say "oh well look at 2015,obviiusly the brand didn't help much." yea no shit. They went 5-7, fired their coach, then hired their new coach who had zero relationships with any recruit with less than a month to build any. I'm telling you if their recruiting class is a comparable size to other teams in the top 10 (after looking that's probably more so mid 20s not low 20s) they will be in the top 10. Top 10 average per player at least if it's another small class.
A) keep telling yourself their brand isn't good. Hoke was pulling in top 5/10 classes his first couple of full classes, and that was right on the heels of the Rich Rod mess.
