BKB’s mildly light-hearted look at Michigan football.
Can you say overrated?
Since 1989, Michigan has been one of the most overrated teams in college football. I’m not just saying that. Comparing the preseason ranking to the post season ranking, we see that Michigan is traditionally ranked higher than they deserve (negative differential = overrated by that many spots. Positive differential = underrated by that many spots):
Year…..Preseason…..Final…..Differential
1989…..1……………7……….-6
1990…..11…………..7……….+4
1991…..2……………6……….-4
1992…..7……………5……….+2
1993…..2……………21………-19
1994…..5……………12………-7
1995…..13…………..17………-4
1996…..14…………..20………-6
1997…..14…………..1……….+13
1998…...5…………...12……..-7
1999……7…………..5………+2
2000……6…………..11……..-5
2001……13…………20……..-7
2002……10…………9………+1
2003……7…………..6………+1
2004……8………….14……..-6
Avg. pre-Season Rank – 7.8125
Avg. post-season rank – 10.81
Michigan has been overrated in 10 of 16 seasons and has an “accumulated” over ranking of 48.
By way of contrast – Ohio State over the same period –
Year….Preseason…….Final….Differential
1989……-……………24…….+2
1990……25…………..-………-1
1991……17…………..-………-9
1992……22…………..18…….+4
1993……17…………..11…….+6
1994……20…………..14…….+6
1995……12…………..6………+6
1996……10…………..2………+8
1997……10…………12…….-2
1998……1…………..2………-1
1999……9…………..-………-17
2000……16…………-………-10
2001……-……………-……..---
2002……11…………1………+10
2003……2…………..4………-2
2004……12…………20……..-8
Avg. pre-season rank – 13.143
Avg. post season rank 10.36
Thus, during the same period, Ohio State has been overrated half the time (8 of 16) However, looking at the amount of overratedness – if I may coin the term – we see an accumulative over-ranking score of 12 (Michigan’s, again, was 48). Interestingly enough, in the 1998 and 2003 seasons Ohio State was “overrated” despite the fact that they finished #2 in 1998 and #4 in 2003.
It is interesting to note, for as much hype as Michigan gets in EVERY preseason, Ohio State and Michigan both tend to finish ranked 10 or so. You’d think, then, that Ohio State would get as much hype as Michigan. Does Ohio State get the same preseason hype? Nope, not according to the numbers. Maybe it’s better that way, I don’t know. That’s not the point. Point is, Michigan is constantly and consistently overrated. The media can’t help but jam the Maize and Blue down our throats. It’s embarrassing.
In the listed years Ohio State has 4 top 4 finishes, #1 in 2002, #2 in 1996 and 1998 and # 4 in 2003. Michigan has 1 top 4 finish, #1 in 1997. But, even considering that, every preseason out trots the Michigan hype wagon. Am I missing something? What has Michigan done to deserve all the pub?
Well, I’ll tell you what they’ve done. From 1901 to 1905 Michigan was the dominant force of midwestern college football. Of course, Minnesota was also kicking the hell out of teams in the early 1900’s too, but no one considers the Gophers a traditional power. Maybe there is some other reason Michigan keeps getting over rated to begin new seasons.
Maybe it’s all the National Championships Michigan has won? Michigan is alleged to have won the following 9 National titles (according to Ncaafootball.net):
1901 - Helms Athletic Foundation (HAF), National Championship Foundation
(NCF)
1902 - HAF, NCF
1903 - NCF
1904 - NCF
1918 - NCF
1923 - NCF
1933 - College Football Research Association, HAF, NCF
1948 - AP
1997 - AP, Football Writers Association of America, National Football Foundation
You’ll note that most of these championships, in fact 7 of them, are completely made up – figments of the imagination of some “foundation” that declares national champions on a historical basis. Since 1936, the year the AP first picked a National Champion, Michigan has won two championships. Two. That’s 1 every half century. Actually, depending on which poll you prefer, maybe Michigan has only 1 National Championship since 1936. (As you are probably aware, Michigan split the title with Nebraska in 1997)
Ohio State has the following National Championships:
1942 - AP
1954 - AP
1957 - UPI, Football Writers Association of America
1961 - FWAA
1968 - AP, FWAA, UPI, NFF
1970 - NFF
2002 - BCS
Of these seven National Championships, in stark contrast to Michigan, Ohio State actually was anointed champion by people who saw them play – at least theoretically. No made up titles here. Truth is, most people do not recognize the 1961 and 1970 championships. That’s fine. Even if you take them away, Ohio State has 5 modern National Championships. Michigan has 2. Apparently on the field results is not the cause of Michigan constantly being over rated to begin the season. (for what it’s worth, by the way, Minnesota has 6 National Championships, 1934, 35, 36 (first AP champion), 1940, 1941, and 1960. So, that’s four “modern” championships to Michigan’s 2, although, in fairness, Minnesota’s run from 1934 – 1941 accounts for all but 1)
Perhaps it’s all of Michigan’s great players? After all, Michigan sports 3 Heisman Trophy winners.
1) Tom Harmon (Home: Indiana)
2) Desmond Howard (Home: Ohio)
3) Charles Woodson (Home: Ohio)
As you can see, Michigan has been thieving their neighboring states for talent. Ohio State, of course, has almost as many Heisman’s if you just count the number of Heisman’s Archie Griffin won. In sum, Ohio State has 6 Heismans. Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, Howard Cassady, Archie Griffin, Archie Griffin, Eddie George. You should note also, that of these 5, only one (Eddie’s) was not “home grown.”
Well, it must be the fact that Michigan is the all time winningest program in college football. Michigan has won 842 football games. That’s a lot. No doubt about it. Ohio State has only won 764, in about 40 less games. A hefty 74% of the time Michigan takes to the field, they come out on top. Nothing to sneeze at. But, now, wait a second. What if we take away Michigan’s 1879 – 1935 seasons. In other words, lets look at only those seasons considered “modern” for National Championship purposes. Using only seasons 1936 – 2004 Michigan has won 523 games out of 732 total. That’s a 72.6% winning percentage. Not bad. Not bad at all. Still, Ohio State is right there with them having won 521 of the 724 games played during the same time period. That’s a winning percentage of 73.5, by the way – slightly better than the Wolverines.
OK, so once again we have a statistic that shows Ohio State as the better team, and despite this it is Michigan that becomes the media darling every fall. Perhaps I’ve ignored recent performance?
Well, from 1993 thru 2004 Ohio State has won 116 of the 150 games they’ve played. That’s right, since 1993 Ohio State can be counted on to win 78 percent of the time. Only Florida State, Nebraska, Tennessee and Miami(Fla) can boast a better record than Ohio State during this period. (Before falling off the radar, I might add, Nebraska was typically over rated more than Michigan, if you can believe it) Michigan, you ask? How have they fared since 1993? Well, 75 percent of the time they’ve played, they’ve won. 111 times in 148 chances. Not too shabby. Of course, it is more shabby than the five teams listed above. Oh, it’s also more shabby than the following schools as well; Marshall, Florida, Kansas State and Virginia Tech.
How about recent bowl results? Maybe that is why every single pre-season we get to hear about how Michigan has a shot at the title.
2005 Rose – lost to Texas
2004 Rose – lost to USC
2003 Citrus – beat Florida
2002 Citrus – Shellacked by Tennessee
Yeah, ok, so they are 1 – 3 in their last 4 bowls. But, what about Ohio State?
2004 Alamo – Beat Oklahoma State
2004 Fiesta – Beat Kansas State
2003 Fiesta – Beat Miami(Fla) won national title
2002 Outback – Lost to South Carolina.
Well, that’s not it either, as Ohio State is 3 – 1 over the last 4 bowls. Both OSU and Michigan have played in 2 BCS bowls in 4 seasons. Both have played in 2 non-BCS bowls, each winning one and losing one. Only Ohio State has won a BCS bowl as between the two… Still, it is Michigan that is media darling? I don’t get it.
Can you say overrated?
Since 1989, Michigan has been one of the most overrated teams in college football. I’m not just saying that. Comparing the preseason ranking to the post season ranking, we see that Michigan is traditionally ranked higher than they deserve (negative differential = overrated by that many spots. Positive differential = underrated by that many spots):
Year…..Preseason…..Final…..Differential
1989…..1……………7……….-6
1990…..11…………..7……….+4
1991…..2……………6……….-4
1992…..7……………5……….+2
1993…..2……………21………-19
1994…..5……………12………-7
1995…..13…………..17………-4
1996…..14…………..20………-6
1997…..14…………..1……….+13
1998…...5…………...12……..-7
1999……7…………..5………+2
2000……6…………..11……..-5
2001……13…………20……..-7
2002……10…………9………+1
2003……7…………..6………+1
2004……8………….14……..-6
Avg. pre-Season Rank – 7.8125
Avg. post-season rank – 10.81
Michigan has been overrated in 10 of 16 seasons and has an “accumulated” over ranking of 48.
By way of contrast – Ohio State over the same period –
Year….Preseason…….Final….Differential
1989……-……………24…….+2
1990……25…………..-………-1
1991……17…………..-………-9
1992……22…………..18…….+4
1993……17…………..11…….+6
1994……20…………..14…….+6
1995……12…………..6………+6
1996……10…………..2………+8
1997……10…………12…….-2
1998……1…………..2………-1
1999……9…………..-………-17
2000……16…………-………-10
2001……-……………-……..---
2002……11…………1………+10
2003……2…………..4………-2
2004……12…………20……..-8
Avg. pre-season rank – 13.143
Avg. post season rank 10.36
Thus, during the same period, Ohio State has been overrated half the time (8 of 16) However, looking at the amount of overratedness – if I may coin the term – we see an accumulative over-ranking score of 12 (Michigan’s, again, was 48). Interestingly enough, in the 1998 and 2003 seasons Ohio State was “overrated” despite the fact that they finished #2 in 1998 and #4 in 2003.
It is interesting to note, for as much hype as Michigan gets in EVERY preseason, Ohio State and Michigan both tend to finish ranked 10 or so. You’d think, then, that Ohio State would get as much hype as Michigan. Does Ohio State get the same preseason hype? Nope, not according to the numbers. Maybe it’s better that way, I don’t know. That’s not the point. Point is, Michigan is constantly and consistently overrated. The media can’t help but jam the Maize and Blue down our throats. It’s embarrassing.
In the listed years Ohio State has 4 top 4 finishes, #1 in 2002, #2 in 1996 and 1998 and # 4 in 2003. Michigan has 1 top 4 finish, #1 in 1997. But, even considering that, every preseason out trots the Michigan hype wagon. Am I missing something? What has Michigan done to deserve all the pub?
Well, I’ll tell you what they’ve done. From 1901 to 1905 Michigan was the dominant force of midwestern college football. Of course, Minnesota was also kicking the hell out of teams in the early 1900’s too, but no one considers the Gophers a traditional power. Maybe there is some other reason Michigan keeps getting over rated to begin new seasons.
Maybe it’s all the National Championships Michigan has won? Michigan is alleged to have won the following 9 National titles (according to Ncaafootball.net):
1901 - Helms Athletic Foundation (HAF), National Championship Foundation
(NCF)
1902 - HAF, NCF
1903 - NCF
1904 - NCF
1918 - NCF
1923 - NCF
1933 - College Football Research Association, HAF, NCF
1948 - AP
1997 - AP, Football Writers Association of America, National Football Foundation
You’ll note that most of these championships, in fact 7 of them, are completely made up – figments of the imagination of some “foundation” that declares national champions on a historical basis. Since 1936, the year the AP first picked a National Champion, Michigan has won two championships. Two. That’s 1 every half century. Actually, depending on which poll you prefer, maybe Michigan has only 1 National Championship since 1936. (As you are probably aware, Michigan split the title with Nebraska in 1997)
Ohio State has the following National Championships:
1942 - AP
1954 - AP
1957 - UPI, Football Writers Association of America
1961 - FWAA
1968 - AP, FWAA, UPI, NFF
1970 - NFF
2002 - BCS
Of these seven National Championships, in stark contrast to Michigan, Ohio State actually was anointed champion by people who saw them play – at least theoretically. No made up titles here. Truth is, most people do not recognize the 1961 and 1970 championships. That’s fine. Even if you take them away, Ohio State has 5 modern National Championships. Michigan has 2. Apparently on the field results is not the cause of Michigan constantly being over rated to begin the season. (for what it’s worth, by the way, Minnesota has 6 National Championships, 1934, 35, 36 (first AP champion), 1940, 1941, and 1960. So, that’s four “modern” championships to Michigan’s 2, although, in fairness, Minnesota’s run from 1934 – 1941 accounts for all but 1)
Perhaps it’s all of Michigan’s great players? After all, Michigan sports 3 Heisman Trophy winners.
1) Tom Harmon (Home: Indiana)
2) Desmond Howard (Home: Ohio)
3) Charles Woodson (Home: Ohio)
As you can see, Michigan has been thieving their neighboring states for talent. Ohio State, of course, has almost as many Heisman’s if you just count the number of Heisman’s Archie Griffin won. In sum, Ohio State has 6 Heismans. Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, Howard Cassady, Archie Griffin, Archie Griffin, Eddie George. You should note also, that of these 5, only one (Eddie’s) was not “home grown.”
Well, it must be the fact that Michigan is the all time winningest program in college football. Michigan has won 842 football games. That’s a lot. No doubt about it. Ohio State has only won 764, in about 40 less games. A hefty 74% of the time Michigan takes to the field, they come out on top. Nothing to sneeze at. But, now, wait a second. What if we take away Michigan’s 1879 – 1935 seasons. In other words, lets look at only those seasons considered “modern” for National Championship purposes. Using only seasons 1936 – 2004 Michigan has won 523 games out of 732 total. That’s a 72.6% winning percentage. Not bad. Not bad at all. Still, Ohio State is right there with them having won 521 of the 724 games played during the same time period. That’s a winning percentage of 73.5, by the way – slightly better than the Wolverines.
OK, so once again we have a statistic that shows Ohio State as the better team, and despite this it is Michigan that becomes the media darling every fall. Perhaps I’ve ignored recent performance?
Well, from 1993 thru 2004 Ohio State has won 116 of the 150 games they’ve played. That’s right, since 1993 Ohio State can be counted on to win 78 percent of the time. Only Florida State, Nebraska, Tennessee and Miami(Fla) can boast a better record than Ohio State during this period. (Before falling off the radar, I might add, Nebraska was typically over rated more than Michigan, if you can believe it) Michigan, you ask? How have they fared since 1993? Well, 75 percent of the time they’ve played, they’ve won. 111 times in 148 chances. Not too shabby. Of course, it is more shabby than the five teams listed above. Oh, it’s also more shabby than the following schools as well; Marshall, Florida, Kansas State and Virginia Tech.
How about recent bowl results? Maybe that is why every single pre-season we get to hear about how Michigan has a shot at the title.
2005 Rose – lost to Texas
2004 Rose – lost to USC
2003 Citrus – beat Florida
2002 Citrus – Shellacked by Tennessee
Yeah, ok, so they are 1 – 3 in their last 4 bowls. But, what about Ohio State?
2004 Alamo – Beat Oklahoma State
2004 Fiesta – Beat Kansas State
2003 Fiesta – Beat Miami(Fla) won national title
2002 Outback – Lost to South Carolina.
Well, that’s not it either, as Ohio State is 3 – 1 over the last 4 bowls. Both OSU and Michigan have played in 2 BCS bowls in 4 seasons. Both have played in 2 non-BCS bowls, each winning one and losing one. Only Ohio State has won a BCS bowl as between the two… Still, it is Michigan that is media darling? I don’t get it.
