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Official Statistical Analysis Thread

Discussion in 'Buckeye Football' started by DaddyBigBucks, Aug 7, 2007.

  1. MililaniBuckeye

    MililaniBuckeye The satanic soulless freight train that is Ohio St Staff Member Tech Admin

    I'll that after our next two games we'll be back in the top spot even by the season total metric. Most likely will gain the top spot in scoring offense, too...
     
  2. ScriptOhio

    ScriptOhio Everybody is somebody else's weirdo.

    Taking Stock: Buckeyes Still Producing Impressive Numbers at All Levels

    [​IMG]

    Every now and then it makes sense to take a look at where the Ohio State football team stands in relation to the rest of the nation.

    The rankings are one thing — and the Playoff Rankings will be out in a couple of days, but it’s always interesting to see just how much production the Buckeyes are responsible on both offense and defense.

    With the Ohio State offense and defense both rolling at unprecedented paces, the need to take stock and appreciate what they’re doing right now is even more apropos.

    Sitting at 8-0 for the first time since 2015 is an accomplishment for this program, so why not spend a few minutes taking a brief victory lap?

    For instance, the Buckeyes are scoring 48.3 points per game, which is third in the nation behind Oklahoma (49.3) and Alabama (48.6). Alabama and Ohio State have each scored 52 touchdowns this season, which is more than anybody else in the nation.

    The Buckeyes are scoring 48.3 points per game and they haven’t even played Maryland and Rutgers yet. The OSU school record for scoring is 45.5 points per game, accomplished during the 2013 season. After those first 10 games this year, the numbers may dip a bit as the Buckeyes take on Penn State, Michigan, possibly a Big Ten Championship Game opponent, and then one or two other talented defenses.

    Ohio State is fourth in the nation in rushing, averaging 284.3 yards per game on the ground. They are tops among Power 5 teams, however, with Boston College being the next closest at 282.3 yards per game. Against conference opponents, the Buckeyes are rushing for 308 yards per game, which is 55 more than anybody else in the Big Ten (Minnesota).

    One year after finishing second in the nation in passing with 364.3 yards per game, the Buckeyes have dialed things back in that area. They are currently 67th in the nation in passing yards per game, averaging 230.5 yards per outing. Their 28 touchdown passes is seventh in the nation, however, and only Georgia Southern — of 74 total pass attempts in seven games — has thrown fewer than the Buckeyes’ one interception.

    And we’ll see if it holds up, but Ohio State is currently averaging a school record 7.17 yards per play, which is .03 ypp ahead of the current best.

    Defensively, the Buckeyes lead the nation in points allowed, as opponents are scoring just 7.9 points per game against this Ohio State defense. They have allowed just six touchdowns this season. No other team in the nation has allowed fewer than nine.

    Among teams that have played eight games this season, Ohio State has allowed three fewer touchdowns than any other defense in the nation.

    Entire article: https://theozone.net/2019/11/buckeyes-impressive-numbers-all-levels/
     
  3. scarletngray

    scarletngray Gold Pants

    As good as the Offense has been the Defense is playing lights out. Stats are impressive on both sides of the ball.
     
  4. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Two teams are in the top 5, nationally, in both scoring offense and scoring defense.

    Playing in the All Cupcake Conference, Clemson is #5 in scoring, #3 defensively.

    Only Ohio State has scored > 50 points per game
    Only Ohio State has allowed < 10 points per game
     
  5. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    There has been speculation that there is probably a bigger difference in point differential between #1 and #2 in that metric than between any two adjacent positions.

    Turns out that speculation is right...

    upload_2019-11-10_10-5-10.png
     
  6. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    UMass is ALMOST a full TD behind NMSU at the very bottom of the rankings. The only difference of > a TD is between #1 and #2
     
    1926Buckeyes and brodybuck21 like this.
  7. MililaniBuckeye

    MililaniBuckeye The satanic soulless freight train that is Ohio St Staff Member Tech Admin

    I'm stealing this...
     
    charlohiottean likes this.
  8. sparcboxbuck

    sparcboxbuck What happened to my ¤cash?

    To continue the discussion, apparently in a more suitable place...

    Yes, parameters relative to observations could be problematic. That’s why I gravitated to something like an XGBoost ML model. I’d probably start with very shallow tree depth (max 3) and a crap ton of trees and let the XGB ensembling do the heavy work.

    Have also considered a hierarchical model here as well. I think that there are some natural hierarchies that exist that could reduce the error. The Bayesian model that I mentioned earlier was a hierarchical model as well but not in a traditional sense. Essentially the upper model (multivariate multiple regression) was used to predict the lower model’s beta weights. The scores resulting from the upper model were then used as a natural conjugate prior on the lower model (multinomial probit) betas. Only chose probit (as opposed to logistic) because of the well behaved math of the distribution of the betas relative to the prior.

    Anyhow, the upper model is where I think that things could be interesting in that the non traditional (and potentially correlated with the lower model predictors) can be added. Alas, I’m not sure if I have that code laying around anymore, and I certainly don’t have access to SAS/IML anymore. Pretty sure that I’d be able to find someone who has packaged it in R or Python though.

    Bringing it back to tOSU, Greg Allenby at Fisher was involved in the original development of that model when he was a Ph.D. student at U of Chicago under Peter Rosi. We got a copy of their paper prior to publishing and were using it in business right as it went to print. Fastest I’ve seen anything go from academia to industry in my career. :wink:

    Any ideas on where to get reliable data for something like this? I’d be very interested in giving this a go if you’re game... but I will say, I’m working on a crap ton of ML / AI / ANN pipelines for standardization for work. I’d probably start with those... but it would be interesting to see how they all perform relative to each other and what a potential ensemble model would look like.

    Let me know if you’re game. If costs for the data aren’t terrible I’d throw some cash at it for fun.
     
    BB73 and Buckeyeskickbuttocks like this.
  9. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    If there’s a way of getting the data we’d need without a web-crawler, I haven’t seen it. The problem with web-crawlers is the tedium of checking the data for accuracy. If we can find an easier way, I’d consider it
     
  10. Buckeyeskickbuttocks

    Buckeyeskickbuttocks Z --> Z^2 + c Staff Member

    Geek talk is awesome. You nerds pull this off and I'll reveal the truth about me not being everyone
     
  11. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Or I could just log back in as dbb and pretend I never said that...
     
  12. Buckeyeskickbuttocks

    Buckeyeskickbuttocks Z --> Z^2 + c Staff Member

    Seems wise. Let's do that.
     
  13. sparcboxbuck

    sparcboxbuck What happened to my ¤cash?

    Meh, I’m really lazy and would rather spend money than my time (because I’d rather do something positive for others by coaching). I’d start with Stats Inc. Lemme see what I can see.
     
    Fungo Squiggly likes this.
  14. muffler dragon

    muffler dragon Bien. Bien chiludo.

    Geek talk is infinitely better and more enjoyable than lawyer-speak. I still love ya though, but not like the lumber-lover loves lumber. Eh, @Fungo Squiggly ?
     
  15. Fungo Squiggly

    Fungo Squiggly Mortal enemy of all things Bucky Yahoo Pickem Champ Former Game Champion '18 Keeper League Champ '18 BPCFFB II Champ

    Haven’t a clue what you mean. But lawyers are the worst.
     

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