Official Statistical Analysis Thread

[DaddyBigBucks]

...Ohio State has recovered, on average, 8 fumbles per season over the past six years. Only FIVE teams in Div. I-A (or whatever) have recovered FEWER fumbles in that time, and one of them (FIU) has only been I-A for one of those seasons. For the curious, the other teams are Kansas, LSU, SMU and Illinois. Our 12 fumbles recovered in 2002 was the most during that time. Our ranking of 47th in the country in 2001 (10 recoveries) was the best during that time.

FWIW: USC had the best average in the nation for BOTH interceptions (18.83 - tied with VPI) and fumble recoveries (16.00) from 2001 to 2006.

Addendum:

During the Tressel Tenure at Ohio State:

Winning Percentage - BCS Teams

1. Texas
2. USC
3. Ohio State

.
.
.


Fumble Recoveries - Div. IA

1. USC
2. Texas

.
.
.

...112. Ohio State

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Whatever happened to the art of stripping the ball?

Do you remember how in Tressel's first year we had that road game at the Rose Bowl against UCLA (of course)? Do you remember how ferociously our team worked at stripping the ball during that game? Where has that gone?

I wondered about that when I saw Pat Fitzgerald's press conference on BTN. His team won, but the thing that he expressed with the most passion was that his team did not work hard enough to strip the ball. I wondered if our coaches are having that talk with the Buckeyes after 3 straight games of zero turnovers.

So I did what I often do when curiosity gets the better of me. I broke out the spreadsheets. What I found is puzzling.

For Interceptions, Ohio State ranks 15th in the country and 1st in the Big Ten during the Tressel Era (2001-2006) with an average of 15.67 interceptions per season. You may recall that this was an item of particular focus last season after the dearth of picks in 2005. We went from snagging 6 of the opposition's passes in '05 (ranked 108) to 21 interceptions in '06 (ranked 3rd nationally).

Well maybe it's time to focus on stripping the ball and recovering it; because our ranking in Fumble Recoveries is not quite as good.

Ohio State has recovered, on average, 8 fumbles per season over the past six years. Only FIVE teams in Div. I-A (or whatever) have recovered FEWER fumbles in that time, and one of them (FIU) has only been I-A for one of those seasons. For the curious, the other teams are Kansas, LSU, SMU and Illinois. Our 12 fumbles recovered in 2002 was the most during that time. Our ranking of 47th in the country in 2001 (10 recoveries) was the best during that time.

FWIW: USC had the best average in the nation for BOTH interceptions (18.83 - tied with VPI) and fumble recoveries (16.00) from 2001 to 2006.

Addendum:

During the Tressel Tenure at Ohio State:

Winning Percentage - BCS Teams

1. Texas
2. USC
3. Ohio State

.
.
.


Fumble Recoveries - Div. IA

1. USC
2. Texas

.
.
.

...112. Ohio State

Thanks, Jam'o.

 

[smithlabs]

Disclaimer: If you don't like stats, stop reading now.

The Most Important Stats

As you might expect, the two most important stats are Scoring Defense and Scoring Offense, in that order. By combining these two stats; anyone schooled in both mathematics and football (like an OSU Engineering alum) can tell you that you will get a higher correlation than by watering them down with the other 16 numbers. The following number is less surprising than the first:

Correlation between winning % and Scoring Offense + Scoring Defense: -0.9554​

It may not be surprising, but that is a very high level of correlation.

Some of you may now be wondering if, since the other 16 numbers water down the correlation of the stats reflected on the scoreboard: what is the correlation of the other 16 numbers to winning percentage? Is there a correlation at all? Um, yeah.

Correlation of winning % to everything but SO and SD: -0.9068​

The fact that the 16 "non-scoring" stats combine to correlate more than 90% to winning absolutely blows my mind. Maybe you have more faith in stats than I do, but to me; this number is a shocker. If you are one of the people who believe that stats are meaningless; you can?t argue with this. ...Well, ok you may be mathematically challenged enough to argue with these results, but these numbers have not been tortured or massaged. This is as raw as numbers get, and they speak loud and clear: Stats Matter!

Ranking the Stats

The following ranks each statistic based on its correlation to winning percentage, and also gives OSU's rank over the last 6 years for each metric.

Category______________Correlation to winning %____OSU?s Rank (2001-2006)
Composite___________________-0.9308_________________________7
Scoring Defense_____________-0.8685_________________________3
Scoring Offense_____________-0.8358________________________41
Pass Efficiency Defense_____-0.8035_________________________7
Rushing Defense_____________-0.8031_________________________5
Total Defense_______________-0.7545_________________________8
Pass Efficiency_____________-0.7509________________________18
Turnover Margin_____________-0.7144________________________41
Total Offense_______________-0.6722________________________68
Net Punting_________________-0.4973_________________________3
Punt Return Defense_________-0.4916________________________15
Rushing Offense_____________-0.4860________________________33
Punt Returns________________-0.4482________________________47
Kickoff Return Defense______-0.3402________________________45
Pass Offense________________-0.3137________________________94
Pass Defense________________-0.2900________________________48
Kickoff Returns_____________-0.2335________________________31
Penalties____________________0.1015________________________20
Penalty Yards________________0.1237________________________17

I thought this was a great post before the season. As the season started I kept thinking back to this post as saying - OSU is doing what matters. Now with three games under their belt I will try to repeat this analysis. I didn't used CNNSI's stat engine so it wasn't as clean as it could have been but here it is-

Category----------Correlation to winning-----OSU?s Rank (2001-2006)--Current Rank
Composite___________-0.9308___________7________________________?
Scoring Defense______-0.8685____________3_______________________5
Scoring Offense______-0.8358____________41______________________41
Pass Efficiency Defense_0.8035___________7_______________________6
Rushing Defense_____-0.8031____________5_______________________16
Total Defense _______-0.7545____________8_______________________3
Pass Efficiency_______-0.7509___________18______________________>50
Turnover Margin______-0.7144___________41______________________>50
Total Offense _______-0.6722____________68______________________48
Net Punting__________-0.4973____________3_______________________?
Punt Return Defense__-0.4916____________15_______________________?
Rushing Offense______-0.486____________33_______________________29
Punt Returns________-0.4482____________47_______________________?
Kickoff Return Defense_-0.3402__________45_______________________?
Pass Offense__________-0.3137__________94_______________________>50
Pass Defense ________-0.29____________48________________________9
Kickoff Returns_______-0.2335__________31_______________________?
Penalties_____________0.1015__________20________________________>50
Penalty Yards_________0.1237__________17________________________>50


What does this mean to me? The offense is doing good enough and the defense still kicks butt. The run D looks a little soft but the pass D looks stout. That is caused in part by letting YSU and Akron stay close and not putting them away early. Also, Locker is a lot better at running than he is at passing. I think this weekend should even those stats out a little:) It is surprising to me that OSU is so close to their average marks with a "rebuilding" team. This OSU team seems to be doing what it needs to win. My optimism is up that this season will be special.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

The official NCAA web-site, which incidentally is what I used for the original analysis, reports the numbers I show in the table at the bottom of this post. Not all the numbers are the same as what you report, but the overall message is right on. The Bucks are doing just fine.

At this early stage in the season, it is already fairly safe to predict that the Buckeyes' statistics in several of the most important metrics will be going up dramatically as the season goes on. The best example is Scoring Offense.

There has been a great deal of sloppy football played this year. Not just in Ann Arbor and South Bend, but all over.​

Many, many defenses have completely broken down on numerous occasions. Many of these same defenses will be just fine later in the season, but they're young and learning from mistakes.​

One of the results of this is that many teams have pumped up offensive statistics against defenses that have blown assignments. OSU on the other hand, has played 3 defenses that played very sound football. They had very different levels of talent, but they played sound. There may have been mistakes here and there, but they were not the glaring holes that were seen in, for instance, the Louisville secondary last weekend.​

Conversely, Ohio State has one of the many young offenses that have made its own mistakes and blown its own assignments on most of its possessions this year. We saw in the second half of the Washington game what happens when the Bucks play sound football on offense.​

As the season goes on the offenses that have fattened up on bad defenses will begin playing defenses that have gelled. Their stats will go down. Conference play will add to this effect as many teams will begin playing teams at their own level for the first time this season.​

Conversely, as OSU continues to gel, their stats will go up. We already saw this start to happen as the Bucks scored more points in the second half against the Huskies than they did in 60 minutes against Akron. Look for this trend to continue as the Bucks roll through the conference slate.​

The tougher defenses at the end of the schedule will bring the stats down in the month of November. But mark my words, OSU will end the season ranked a good deal higher than 40th in Scoring Offense.
​

Composite___________________-0.9308_________________________TBD
Scoring Defense_____________-0.8685_________________________5
Scoring Offense_____________-0.8358________________________40
Pass Efficiency Defense_____-0.8035_________________________6
Rushing Defense_____________-0.8031________________________16
Total Defense_______________-0.7545_________________________3
Pass Efficiency_____________-0.7509________________________25
Turnover Margin_____________-0.7144________________________63
Total Offense_______________-0.6722________________________48
Net Punting_________________-0.4973________________________12
Punt Return Defense_________-0.4916________________________29
Rushing Offense_____________-0.4860________________________30
Punt Returns________________-0.4482________________________66
Kickoff Return Defense______-0.3402________________________45
Pass Offense________________-0.3137________________________65
Pass Defense________________-0.2900_________________________9
Kickoff Returns_____________-0.2335________________________46
Penalties____________________0.1015________________________87
Penalty Yards________________0.1237________________________52

 

[lvbuckeye]

the efficiency stats really caught my attention, because they are TEAM stats, not really offensive or defensive. when looking at offensive efficiency, defense and special teams are literally two thirds of the equation with regards to yards needed per point amassed. the flip side is true of defensive efficiency...

so, i crunched some numbers... first, a little history:

the '06 team averaged just over 11 yards per point.
in 2006 we forced teams to go 22 yards per point.

the '05 team averaged 12.9 yards per point.
in 2005 we forced teams to go 18.45 yards per point.

the '04 team averaged 13.3 yards per point.
in 2004 we forced teams to go 18.19 yards per point.

the '03 team averaged 13.4 yards per point.
in 2003 we forced teams to go 16.85 yards per point.

the '02 team averaged 12.5 yards per point.
in 2002 we forced teams to go 24.55 yards per point.

through three games, our offensive efficiency was 13.8 yards/point.
through three games, our defensive efficiency was 16.86 yards/point.

through four games, our offensive efficiency was 11.1 yards/point.
through four games, our defensive efficiency was 24.5 yards/point.

through five games, our offensive efficiency is 11.84 yards/point.
through five games, our defensice efficiency is 27.44 yards/point.

let's look at the rest of the top ten after the first month of the season:

USC offensive efficiency: 11.47 yards/point
USC defensive efficiency: 14.05 yards/point

LSU offensive efficiency: 11.06 yards/point
LSU defensive efficiency: 27.28 yards/point

Cal offensive efficiency: 10.81 yards/point
Cal defensive efficiency: 15.91 yarsd/point

Wiscy offensive efficiency: 12.80 yards/point
Wiscy defensive efficiency: 16.10 yards/point

Florida offensive efficiency: 11.14 yards/point
Florida defensive efficiency: 15.75 yards/point

USF offensive efficiency: 12.45 yards/point
USF defensive efficiency: 19.50 yards/point

Boston College offensive efficiency: 14.11 yards/point
Boston College defensive efficiency: 18.35 yards/point

Kentucky offensive efficiency: 10.56 yards/ point
Kentucky defensive efficiency: 17.49 yards/point

Oklahoma offensive efficiency: 9.18 yards/point
Oklahoma defensive efficiency: 17.81 yards/point

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Differential Statistical Analysis

To those of you who enjoy DSA, you'll both be happy to know that the spreadsheet has been populated and it is back for 2007.

Those of you familiar with DSA will recall that it compares a team's statistical results vs. their opponents to the average results other teams had against those same teams. It's easier to understand using an example, so here's how it works with Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense:

Note: As with previous years, games against lower division teams are factored out. This hurts the teams that bullied the smaller schools and helps the team *Michigan* that was "nice" to them.

Example:

If your opponents have given up 21 points per game when the games they played against you are factored out, and you averaged 42 points per game against those teams, then your Differential Scoring Offense (DSO) is 42/21 = 2. Similarly, if your opponents score 21 points per game when the games they played against you are factored out, and you gave up 14 points per game against them, then your Differential Scoring Defense (DSD) is 14/21 = 0.667. As you can see, a higher number is better for DSO and a lower number is better for DSD. The same type of analysis can be done for yardage.​

The real power of this tool is that it allows us to create a new stat, the Differential Scoring Composite (DSC) that takes DSO and divides it by DSD. This gives us a single number by which to rank the relative power of each team. This combines offense, defense and (to a point) schedule strength into a single metric.​

The Rankings - DSC:

Rather than show the intermediate results for everyone, let's just look at the top teams in Differential Scoring Composite (DSC)​

Rank____Team___________________DSC
1_______LSU____________________7.224
2_______Ohio State_____________4.351
3_______Kansas_________________3.962
4_______Oklahoma_______________3.617
5_______South Florida__________3.148
6_______Kentucky_______________2.403
7_______Arizona State__________2.143
8_______Southern Cal___________2.128
9_______West Virginia__________2.035
10______South Carolina_________2.030
11______Colorado_______________2.005
12______California_____________1.945
13______Alabama________________1.943
14______Florida________________1.919
15______Illinois_______________1.913
16______Auburn_________________1.903
17______Oregon_________________1.874
18______Connecticut____________1.872
19______Nebraska_______________1.867
20______Cincinnati_____________1.850
21______Georgia________________1.784
22______Texas__________________1.738
23______Wisconsin______________1.731
24______Kansas State___________1.695
25______Washington_____________1.649
26______Rutgers________________1.584
27______Arkansas_______________1.562
28______Georgia Tech___________1.503
29______Michigan_______________1.456
30______Florida St.____________1.448
.
.
.
50______Purdue_________________1.174

​

• So USC and LSU are far and away better than everybody else huh? Well, LSU maybe.
  [*]There are two USCs in the top 10.
  [*]Colorado benefits from the epic Oklahoma collapse against them and will fall from their current #11 perch.
  [*]Illinois might be the 2nd best team in the Big Ten.
  [*]Michigan benefits from games vs. lower division schools being eliminated. They do seem to have righted the ship somewhat after their even-slow-for-them slow start.

EDIT: Added ranking and number for Purdue (next opponent as of this post). For more DSA with respect to Purdue, see this week's preview. Click on the Read More link in the Additional Information section on the front page (to be posted tomorrow, hopefully) and scroll down to Behind the Numbers.

 

[Jaxbuck]

-Seeing ASU that high makes me even more confident in my "not so fast" on the idea the Cal/USC winner will automatically go undefeated. Both teams have to play night games at ASU irc.

-We just might kill Purdue.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

DYC

DSA works the same for yardage as it does for points. Here are the top 30 in Differential Yardage Composite (DYC):

Rank____Team___________________DYC
1_______LSU____________________2.517
2_______Oklahoma_______________2.036
3_______Ohio State_____________1.844
4_______West Virginia__________1.775
5_______Colorado_______________1.762
6_______Southern Cal___________1.713
7_______Brigham Young__________1.666
8_______Arizona State__________1.641
9_______Oregon State___________1.611
10______South Florida__________1.559
11______Oregon_________________1.529
12______Texas__________________1.498
13______Kansas_________________1.466
14______South Carolina_________1.466
15______Nebraska_______________1.462
16______Rutgers________________1.439
17______Alabama________________1.425
18______Hawaii_________________1.417
19______Arkansas_______________1.400
20______Florida________________1.389
21______Boise St.______________1.370
22______Boston College_________1.368
23______Kentucky_______________1.361
24______Wisconsin______________1.321
25______Tulsa__________________1.316
26______Auburn_________________1.310
27______Michigan St.___________1.310
28______Clemson________________1.292
29______Pittsburgh_____________1.290
30______Houston________________1.269
.
.
.
85______Purdue_________________0.802

​

• Not surprisingly, DSC reflects actual results far better than DYC
• Though #18 in DYC, Hawaii is #38 in DSC.
• BYU is #7 in DYC, but #36 in DSC.
• Oregon State is #9 in DYC, but #55 in DSC.
• For those who care, Notre Dame is ranked #112 in DSC and #111 in DYC

 

[kippy1040]

DBB: Your stat analyses is as formidable as JT's TEAMs! Good show. Excuse me whilst I gird my loins to give your tome a second look.

I concur here on SanClements views. DBB really comes thru with stats that are mind boggeling. JAX-Bucks does a good job in this area too. I am amazed at the In-depth knowledge of some of our posters. Im sure if JT would read these stat analyesis he would be impressed too. I get so upset when I hear that people think that the BIG 10 is a weaker conference than some others. I for one feel that Jim Tressel and the Buckeyes have raised the bar for other Big10 teams to try and hurdle. Last year is was obvious that Ohio State and Michigan left everything on the field at the "Shoe" last year. Were they both tired fottball teams after that - I sure as hell think so. That was a great game in my estimation.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

The Purdue Preview has now been posted on the front page. The "Behind the Numbers" section contains a detailed Differential Statistical Analysis (DSA) of the upcoming game. Go to the front page, scroll to the bottom of the Additional Information section and click where it says read more.

Or you could just click here.


For those who prefer their analysis in a nutshell:

• The difference between the OSU D and the Purdue D is bigger than people think. DSA shows that the Buckeyes are fantastic and the Boilermakers are just plain bad.
• The difference between the offenses is much less than people think.
  • DSA shows that the Buckeyes are almost as good at producing points as the Boilermakers
  • Analysis of passing on first down shows that the Buckeyes have a great deal of untapped potential on offense.
  • It is doubtful that Tiller's Troops have as much untapped potential.

That last bullet-point is my opinion. Everything else is proven in the Behind the Numbers section of the preview.

 

[Steve19]

The Purdue Preview has now been posted on the front page. The "Behind the Numbers" section contains a detailed Differential Statistical Analysis (DSA) of the upcoming game. Go to the front page, scroll to the bottom of the Additional Information section and click where it says read more.

Or you could just click here.


For those who prefer their analysis in a nutshell:

• The difference between the OSU D and the Purdue D is bigger than people think. DSA shows that the Buckeyes are fantastic and the Boilermakers are just plain bad.
• The difference between the offenses is much less than people think.
  • DSA shows that the Buckeyes are almost as good at producing points as the Boilermakers
  • Analysis of passing on first down shows that the Buckeyes have a great deal of untapped potential on offense.
  • It is doubtful that Tiller's Troops have as much untapped potential.

That last bullet-point is my opinion. Everything else is proven in the Behind the Numbers section of the preview.

Nicely done. Let's just see how Purdue does against Buckeye D. That will be interesting to watch!

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Let's see how the Purdue Offense does against the second string Buckeye D.

 

[muffler dragon]

The Rankings - DSC:

Rather than show the intermediate results for everyone, let's just look at the top teams in Differential Scoring Composite (DSC)​

Rank____Team___________________DSC​

2_______Ohio State_____________4.351​

15______Illinois_______________1.913​

23______Wisconsin______________1.731​

​

29______Michigan_______________1.456​

DBB:

Would it be safe to presume that according to this data that Illinois is looking like our toughest test? I realize with Michigan that we can throw the records and stats out the window, but it's interesting to see the Illini so high.

 

[lvbuckeye]

update through six games:

offensive efficiency: 12.36 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 29.30 yards/point

LSU offensive efficiency: 11.41 yards/point
LSU defensive efficiency: 21.20 yards/point

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

DBB:

Would it be safe to presume that according to this data that Illinois is looking like our toughest test? I realize with Michigan that we can throw the records and stats out the window, but it's interesting to see the Illini so high.

It's still a bit early to draw conclusions other than "Illinois MIGHT be the 2nd best team in the Big 10".

I don't know if I'll get a chance to update the numbers this week.

If the numbers still look like this after the MSU game, then we can surmise that Illinois is the 2nd best team in the conference. Whether they will be the toughest test is a different question. We have them at home, and we don't yet know how we match up with a team with a good running game and not much passing ability.

There is also the issue of Illinois immediately preceding The Game.