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Official Statistical Analysis Thread

Discussion in 'Buckeye Football' started by DaddyBigBucks, Aug 7, 2007.

  1. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Addendum:

    During the Tressel Tenure at Ohio State:

    Winning Percentage - BCS Teams
    1. Texas
    2. USC
    3. Ohio State
    .
    .
    .


    Fumble Recoveries - Div. IA
    1. USC
    2. Texas
    .
    .
    .

    ...112. Ohio State
     
  2. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie


    Thanks, Jam'o.
     
  3. smithlabs

    smithlabs Sophmore

    I thought this was a great post before the season. As the season started I kept thinking back to this post as saying - OSU is doing what matters. Now with three games under their belt I will try to repeat this analysis. I didn't used CNNSI's stat engine so it wasn't as clean as it could have been but here it is-

    Category----------Correlation to winning-----OSU?s Rank (2001-2006)--Current Rank
    Composite___________-0.9308___________7________________________?
    Scoring Defense______-0.8685____________3_______________________5
    Scoring Offense______-0.8358____________41______________________41
    Pass Efficiency Defense_0.8035___________7_______________________6
    Rushing Defense_____-0.8031____________5_______________________16
    Total Defense _______-0.7545____________8_______________________3
    Pass Efficiency_______-0.7509___________18______________________>50
    Turnover Margin______-0.7144___________41______________________>50
    Total Offense _______-0.6722____________68______________________48
    Net Punting__________-0.4973____________3_______________________?
    Punt Return Defense__-0.4916____________15_______________________?
    Rushing Offense______-0.486____________33_______________________29
    Punt Returns________-0.4482____________47_______________________?
    Kickoff Return Defense_-0.3402__________45_______________________?
    Pass Offense__________-0.3137__________94_______________________>50
    Pass Defense ________-0.29____________48________________________9
    Kickoff Returns_______-0.2335__________31_______________________?
    Penalties_____________0.1015__________20________________________>50
    Penalty Yards_________0.1237__________17________________________>50


    What does this mean to me? The offense is doing good enough and the defense still kicks butt. The run D looks a little soft but the pass D looks stout. That is caused in part by letting YSU and Akron stay close and not putting them away early. Also, Locker is a lot better at running than he is at passing. I think this weekend should even those stats out a little:) It is surprising to me that OSU is so close to their average marks with a "rebuilding" team. This OSU team seems to be doing what it needs to win. My optimism is up that this season will be special.
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2007
    DaddyBigBucks likes this.
  4. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    The official NCAA web-site, which incidentally is what I used for the original analysis, reports the numbers I show in the table at the bottom of this post. Not all the numbers are the same as what you report, but the overall message is right on. The Bucks are doing just fine.

    At this early stage in the season, it is already fairly safe to predict that the Buckeyes' statistics in several of the most important metrics will be going up dramatically as the season goes on. The best example is Scoring Offense.

    There has been a great deal of sloppy football played this year. Not just in Ann Arbor and South Bend, but all over.​

    Many, many defenses have completely broken down on numerous occasions. Many of these same defenses will be just fine later in the season, but they're young and learning from mistakes.​
    One of the results of this is that many teams have pumped up offensive statistics against defenses that have blown assignments. OSU on the other hand, has played 3 defenses that played very sound football. They had very different levels of talent, but they played sound. There may have been mistakes here and there, but they were not the glaring holes that were seen in, for instance, the Louisville secondary last weekend.​
    Conversely, Ohio State has one of the many young offenses that have made its own mistakes and blown its own assignments on most of its possessions this year. We saw in the second half of the Washington game what happens when the Bucks play sound football on offense.​
    As the season goes on the offenses that have fattened up on bad defenses will begin playing defenses that have gelled. Their stats will go down. Conference play will add to this effect as many teams will begin playing teams at their own level for the first time this season.​
    Conversely, as OSU continues to gel, their stats will go up. We already saw this start to happen as the Bucks scored more points in the second half against the Huskies than they did in 60 minutes against Akron. Look for this trend to continue as the Bucks roll through the conference slate.​
    The tougher defenses at the end of the schedule will bring the stats down in the month of November. But mark my words, OSU will end the season ranked a good deal higher than 40th in Scoring Offense.
    Composite___________________-0.9308_________________________TBD
    Scoring Defense_____________-0.8685_________________________5
    Scoring Offense_____________-0.8358________________________40
    Pass Efficiency Defense_____-0.8035_________________________6
    Rushing Defense_____________-0.8031________________________16
    Total Defense_______________-0.7545_________________________3
    Pass Efficiency_____________-0.7509________________________25
    Turnover Margin_____________-0.7144________________________63
    Total Offense_______________-0.6722________________________48
    Net Punting_________________-0.4973________________________12
    Punt Return Defense_________-0.4916________________________29
    Rushing Offense_____________-0.4860________________________30
    Punt Returns________________-0.4482________________________66
    Kickoff Return Defense______-0.3402________________________45
    Pass Offense________________-0.3137________________________65
    Pass Defense________________-0.2900_________________________9
    Kickoff Returns_____________-0.2335________________________46
    Penalties____________________0.1015________________________87
    Penalty Yards________________0.1237________________________52
     
  5. lvbuckeye

    lvbuckeye Silver Surfer

    the efficiency stats really caught my attention, because they are TEAM stats, not really offensive or defensive. when looking at offensive efficiency, defense and special teams are literally two thirds of the equation with regards to yards needed per point amassed. the flip side is true of defensive efficiency...

    so, i crunched some numbers... first, a little history:

    the '06 team averaged just over 11 yards per point.
    in 2006 we forced teams to go 22 yards per point.

    the '05 team averaged 12.9 yards per point.
    in 2005 we forced teams to go 18.45 yards per point.

    the '04 team averaged 13.3 yards per point.
    in 2004 we forced teams to go 18.19 yards per point.

    the '03 team averaged 13.4 yards per point.
    in 2003 we forced teams to go 16.85 yards per point.

    the '02 team averaged 12.5 yards per point.
    in 2002 we forced teams to go 24.55 yards per point.

    through three games, our offensive efficiency was 13.8 yards/point.
    through three games, our defensive efficiency was 16.86 yards/point.

    through four games, our offensive efficiency was 11.1 yards/point.
    through four games, our defensive efficiency was 24.5 yards/point.

    through five games, our offensive efficiency is 11.84 yards/point.
    through five games, our defensice efficiency is 27.44 yards/point.

    let's look at the rest of the top ten after the first month of the season:

    USC offensive efficiency: 11.47 yards/point
    USC defensive efficiency: 14.05 yards/point

    LSU offensive efficiency: 11.06 yards/point
    LSU defensive efficiency: 27.28 yards/point

    Cal offensive efficiency: 10.81 yards/point
    Cal defensive efficiency: 15.91 yarsd/point

    Wiscy offensive efficiency: 12.80 yards/point
    Wiscy defensive efficiency: 16.10 yards/point

    Florida offensive efficiency: 11.14 yards/point
    Florida defensive efficiency: 15.75 yards/point

    USF offensive efficiency: 12.45 yards/point
    USF defensive efficiency: 19.50 yards/point

    Boston College offensive efficiency: 14.11 yards/point
    Boston College defensive efficiency: 18.35 yards/point

    Kentucky offensive efficiency: 10.56 yards/ point
    Kentucky defensive efficiency: 17.49 yards/point

    Oklahoma offensive efficiency: 9.18 yards/point
    Oklahoma defensive efficiency: 17.81 yards/point
     
    MaxBuck likes this.
  6. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Differential Statistical Analysis

    To those of you who enjoy DSA, you'll both be happy to know that the spreadsheet has been populated and it is back for 2007.

    Those of you familiar with DSA will recall that it compares a team's statistical results vs. their opponents to the average results other teams had against those same teams. It's easier to understand using an example, so here's how it works with Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense:

    Note: As with previous years, games against lower division teams are factored out. This hurts the teams that bullied the smaller schools and helps the team *Michigan* that was "nice" to them.

    Example:

    If your opponents have given up 21 points per game when the games they played against you are factored out, and you averaged 42 points per game against those teams, then your Differential Scoring Offense (DSO) is 42/21 = 2. Similarly, if your opponents score 21 points per game when the games they played against you are factored out, and you gave up 14 points per game against them, then your Differential Scoring Defense (DSD) is 14/21 = 0.667. As you can see, a higher number is better for DSO and a lower number is better for DSD. The same type of analysis can be done for yardage.​

    The real power of this tool is that it allows us to create a new stat, the Differential Scoring Composite (DSC) that takes DSO and divides it by DSD. This gives us a single number by which to rank the relative power of each team. This combines offense, defense and (to a point) schedule strength into a single metric.​

    The Rankings - DSC:
    Rather than show the intermediate results for everyone, let's just look at the top teams in Differential Scoring Composite (DSC)​

    Rank____Team___________________DSC
    1_______LSU____________________7.224
    2_______Ohio State_____________4.351
    3_______Kansas_________________3.962
    4_______Oklahoma_______________3.617
    5_______South Florida__________3.148
    6_______Kentucky_______________2.403
    7_______Arizona State__________2.143
    8_______Southern Cal___________2.128
    9_______West Virginia__________2.035
    10______South Carolina_________2.030
    11______Colorado_______________2.005
    12______California_____________1.945
    13______Alabama________________1.943
    14______Florida________________1.919
    15______Illinois_______________1.913
    16______Auburn_________________1.903
    17______Oregon_________________1.874
    18______Connecticut____________1.872
    19______Nebraska_______________1.867
    20______Cincinnati_____________1.850
    21______Georgia________________1.784
    22______Texas__________________1.738
    23______Wisconsin______________1.731
    24______Kansas State___________1.695
    25______Washington_____________1.649
    26______Rutgers________________1.584
    27______Arkansas_______________1.562
    28______Georgia Tech___________1.503
    29______Michigan_______________1.456
    30______Florida St.____________1.448
    .
    .
    .
    50______Purdue_________________1.174

    • So USC and LSU are far and away better than everybody else huh? Well, LSU maybe.
      [*]There are two USCs in the top 10.
      [*]Colorado benefits from the epic Oklahoma collapse against them and will fall from their current #11 perch.
      [*]Illinois might be the 2nd best team in the Big Ten.
      [*]Michigan benefits from games vs. lower division schools being eliminated. They do seem to have righted the ship somewhat after their even-slow-for-them slow start.
    EDIT: Added ranking and number for Purdue (next opponent as of this post). For more DSA with respect to Purdue, see this week's preview. Click on the Read More link in the Additional Information section on the front page (to be posted tomorrow, hopefully) and scroll down to Behind the Numbers.
     
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2007
    808 Buck, MililaniBuckeye and BB73 like this.
  7. Jaxbuck

    Jaxbuck I hate tsun ‘18 Fantasy Baseball Champ

    -Seeing ASU that high makes me even more confident in my "not so fast" on the idea the Cal/USC winner will automatically go undefeated. Both teams have to play night games at ASU irc.

    -We just might kill Purdue.
     
  8. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    DYC

    DSA works the same for yardage as it does for points. Here are the top 30 in Differential Yardage Composite (DYC):

    Rank____Team___________________DYC
    1_______LSU____________________2.517

    2_______Oklahoma_______________2.036
    3_______Ohio State_____________1.844
    4_______West Virginia__________1.775
    5_______Colorado_______________1.762
    6_______Southern Cal___________1.713
    7_______Brigham Young__________1.666

    8_______Arizona State__________1.641
    9_______Oregon State___________1.611
    10______South Florida__________1.559
    11______Oregon_________________1.529
    12______Texas__________________1.498
    13______Kansas_________________1.466
    14______South Carolina_________1.466
    15______Nebraska_______________1.462
    16______Rutgers________________1.439
    17______Alabama________________1.425
    18______Hawaii_________________1.417
    19______Arkansas_______________1.400
    20______Florida________________1.389
    21______Boise St.______________1.370
    22______Boston College_________1.368
    23______Kentucky_______________1.361

    24______Wisconsin______________1.321
    25______Tulsa__________________1.316
    26______Auburn_________________1.310
    27______Michigan St.___________1.310
    28______Clemson________________1.292
    29______Pittsburgh_____________1.290
    30______Houston________________1.269
    .
    .
    .
    85______Purdue_________________0.802

    • Not surprisingly, DSC reflects actual results far better than DYC
    • Though #18 in DYC, Hawaii is #38 in DSC.
    • BYU is #7 in DYC, but #36 in DSC.
    • Oregon State is #9 in DYC, but #55 in DSC.
    • For those who care, Notre Dame is ranked #112 in DSC and #111 in DYC
     
  9. kippy1040

    kippy1040 Junior

    I concur here on SanClements views. DBB really comes thru with stats that are mind boggeling. JAX-Bucks does a good job in this area too. I am amazed at the In-depth knowledge of some of our posters. Im sure if JT would read these stat analyesis he would be impressed too. I get so upset when I hear that people think that the BIG 10 is a weaker conference than some others. I for one feel that Jim Tressel and the Buckeyes have raised the bar for other Big10 teams to try and hurdle. Last year is was obvious that Ohio State and Michigan left everything on the field at the "Shoe" last year. Were they both tired fottball teams after that - I sure as hell think so. That was a great game in my estimation.
     
  10. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    The Purdue Preview has now been posted on the front page. The "Behind the Numbers" section contains a detailed Differential Statistical Analysis (DSA) of the upcoming game. Go to the front page, scroll to the bottom of the Additional Information section and click where it says read more.

    Or you could just click here.


    For those who prefer their analysis in a nutshell:
    • The difference between the OSU D and the Purdue D is bigger than people think. DSA shows that the Buckeyes are fantastic and the Boilermakers are just plain bad.
    • The difference between the offenses is much less than people think.
      • DSA shows that the Buckeyes are almost as good at producing points as the Boilermakers
      • Analysis of passing on first down shows that the Buckeyes have a great deal of untapped potential on offense.
      • It is doubtful that Tiller's Troops have as much untapped potential.
    That last bullet-point is my opinion. Everything else is proven in the Behind the Numbers section of the preview.
     
    Jaxbuck, bkochmc and HineyBuck like this.
  11. Steve19

    Steve19 Watching. Always watching. Staff Member

    Nicely done. Let's just see how Purdue does against Buckeye D. That will be interesting to watch!

    :oh:
     
  12. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    :io:

    Let's see how the Purdue Offense does against the second string Buckeye D.
     
  13. muffler dragon

    muffler dragon Bien. Bien chiludo.

    DBB:

    Would it be safe to presume that according to this data that Illinois is looking like our toughest test? I realize with Michigan that we can throw the records and stats out the window, but it's interesting to see the Illini so high.
     
  14. lvbuckeye

    lvbuckeye Silver Surfer

    update through six games:

    offensive efficiency: 12.36 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 29.30 yards/point

    LSU offensive efficiency: 11.41 yards/point
    LSU defensive efficiency: 21.20 yards/point
     
  15. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    It's still a bit early to draw conclusions other than "Illinois MIGHT be the 2nd best team in the Big 10".

    I don't know if I'll get a chance to update the numbers this week.

    If the numbers still look like this after the MSU game, then we can surmise that Illinois is the 2nd best team in the conference. Whether they will be the toughest test is a different question. We have them at home, and we don't yet know how we match up with a team with a good running game and not much passing ability.

    There is also the issue of Illinois immediately preceding The Game.
     

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