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Official Statistical Analysis Thread

Discussion in 'Buckeye Football' started by DaddyBigBucks, Aug 7, 2007.

  1. Jaxbuck

    Jaxbuck I hate tsun ‘18 Fantasy Baseball Champ

    But to balance that out, its SR day/last home game in the Shoe. I don't think complacency will be an issue.

    I will await the stats but I think I've seen enough so far this year to confidently say Illinois is the 2nd best team in the B10 right now.

    Not sure who else you could even make a case for? Tsun? That will be settled very soon by a night game @ Illinois. Matchup NIGHTMARE for the AA gals.
     
  2. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Good point. If a share of the B10 title is on the line, the atmosphere will be intense. The players will be jacked and the crowd, realizing that this is their last chance to see their Big 10 (at least) Champion Buckeyes, will bring the noise all game long.

    What? It's not like they have any similarities to the teams that have spread 'em and shred 'em.

    Vince Young
    Troy Smith
    Armanti Edwards(Hiney' reminded me of the name)
    Dennis? Dixon
    .
    .
    .
    Juice Williams


    um, nevermind
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2007
  3. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    DSA

    For a definition of DSC (and last week's top 30): LINK

    Rank_____School_____________DSC
    1_________LSU_______________5.383
    2_________Ohio St.__________4.661
    3_________Oklahoma__________3.303
    4_________Kansas____________2.911
    5_________South Fla.________2.504
    6_________Florida___________2.500
    7_________Auburn____________2.208
    8_________Cincinnati________2.184
    9_________Arizona St._______2.168
    10________West Virginia_____2.137
    11________South Carolina____2.098
    12________Missouri__________2.054
    13________Connecticut_______1.995
    14________Kansas St.________1.989
    15________Colorado__________1.955
    16________Illinois__________1.866
    17________Rutgers___________1.852
    18________Texas_____________1.840
    19________Oregon____________1.830
    20________California________1.815
    21________Kentucky__________1.789
    22________Penn St.__________1.784
    23________USC_______________1.581
    24________Arkansas__________1.558
    25________Texas Tech________1.503
    26________Alabama___________1.501
    27________Boise St._________1.418
    28________Washington________1.405
    29________Wisconsin_________1.403
    30________Michigan__________1.403
    31________Florida St._______1.384
    32________Georgia Tech______1.374
    33________Georgia___________1.373
    34________Purdue____________1.372
    35________Boston College____1.362
    .
    .
    .
    100_______Kent State________0.556
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2007
    Fungo Squiggly likes this.
  4. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    The reason I included 35 teams this week instead of 30 is that the #5 team in the country is #35 in DSC.

    I find this interesting, because everywhere you hear that "BC might deserve a top-5 ranking, but South Florida certainly doesn't".

    I might even go along with this to a point. BC has a very good QB, and USF has a QB that almost lost them the game against Florida Atlantic.

    But BC is the team that comes in a spot below Purdue in DSC.

    The fact that so many teams have played poorly a time or two and lost games they shouldn't have is probably skewing this year's DSC results somewhat. It will be interesting to see how the top 30 (35) changes over the next 6 weeks.
     
  5. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    As some of our upcoming opponents played very poorly early in the year and have improved markedly since (that's the nicest way I could think of to mention Appy State); it should be interesting to track how our upcoming opponents' statistics change from week to week.

    To that end, here are the offensive statistics (and OSU's) for the remaining opponents of the 2007 season:

    Team_______SO______TO_______DSO______DTO
    OSU______32.80___416.00_____1.09_____0.95
    Kent_____21.80___411.20_____0.71_____0.99
    MSU______34.33___451.83_____1.14_____1.22
    PSU______31.83___403.83_____1.25_____1.10
    Wisc_____28.40___423.60_____1.19_____1.16
    Ill______32.00___415.00_____1.44_____1.12
    scUM_____24.00___383.80_____0.92_____1.09



    Where:
    SO = Scoring Offense​

    TO = Total Offense​

    DSO = Differential Scoring Offense​

    DTO = Differential Total Offense​

    Who among you would have bet that:
    • OSU has a lower DTO than any remaining opponent
      • DTO is a measure of how well a team has produced yards compared to other teams their opponents have played
    • scUM has the lowest number in every metric of our remaining conference opponents
      • OK, that one isn't surprising
    More things that aren't surprising:
    • Our remaining conference opponents all have good, but not great offenses.
    • While MSU has produced the most points against I-A competition, Illinois has produced by far the best DSO.
    • Because they are primarily a running team, Illinois' stout DSO does not translate into an equally impressive raw DTO
    But the next post should illuminate why...
     
  6. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Rushing and Passing

    The last post was about Total Offense and Scoring Offense.

    As our upcoming opponents all seem to be 'run first' teams, I thought it might be interesting to break this out; run vs. pass.


    Team_______RO_________DRO________PO________DPO
    OSU______216.20______1.30______199.80______0.73
    Kent______236.40______1.31______174.80______0.74
    MSU______221.83______1.37______230.00______1.10
    PSU______179.50______1.20______224.33______1.03
    Wisc_____179.80______1.51______243.80______0.99
    Ill______258.00______2.07______157.00______0.64
    scUM_____194.80______1.35______189.00______0.91



    Where:
    RO = Rushing Offense
    DRO = Differential Rushing Offense
    PO = Passing Offense
    DPO = Differential Passing Offense

    Surprising (to me anyway):
    • Only PSU has a lower DRO than Ohio State
    • Only Illinois has a lower DPO than Ohio State
    IMHO, OSU has a low DRO and DPO because they have played the three worst pass defenses in the Big 10 and have insisted on running the ball right at them for the most part. Rather than attack their weakness, we have simply bludgeoned them to death, allowing our defense to smother them and make an average offensive output a blow-out. This has resulted in low passing numbers against bad passing offenses - a sure-fire recipe for a very low DPO. The low DRO comes from running when it is obvious we will run.

    While I concede that our offense has issues, I firmly believe that the coaches are bringing this young offense along and teaching them through this process. Yes their are problems. But these problems are being worked out and I believe that we'll have a much better offense by the end of the year than we have now. Whether that is reflected in the numbers (except the win column) is beside the point.


    Other things worth noting:
    • KSU seems very similar to us
      • That similarity may not be obvious on Saturday
    • Every single team we have left to play has a heavy run bias
      • Illinois!! 2.07-0.64!!
    • Illinois' DRO is second in the nation (Navy is 1st)
    • PSU is one of only 2 teams that both runs and passes for more yards than their opponents usually allow (DRO, DPO > 1)
      • This is more of an artifact of the horrible schedules of their opponents - This analysis compares them to worse teams than most anyone else is compared to...
      • I don't care what the numbers say, Morelli sucks
    • Our rushing defense will be tested, but I like our chances. I think that having 6 straight run-oriented teams to end the year is a good match-up for the Buckeyes.
     
  7. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Dominating Defense

    Someone breakout a thesaurus and try to find a word that adequately describes the supremacy that is the Ohio State Defense. I've got nothin'


    Team_______SD_____TD______DSD____DTD_______RD____DRD______PD_____DPD
    OSU_______7.40___216.80___0.23___0.52____38.80___0.24___178.00___0.70
    Kent_____28.40___361.00___1.28___1.05___149.20___1.19___211.80___0.97
    MSU______24.50___355.83___1.18___1.05___114.67___1.17___241.17___1.00
    PSU______13.67___253.17___0.70___0.81____80.50___0.57___172.67___1.01
    Wisc_____22.40___367.20___0.85___0.92___158.80___0.91___208.40___0.92
    Ill______24.00___411.60___0.77___1.03___104.60___0.63___307.00___1.31
    scUM_____17.20___338.80___0.65___0.95___137.80___0.99___201.00___0.93


    Where:
    SD = Scoring Defense
    TD = Total Defense
    DSD = Differential Scoring Defense
    DTD = Differential Total Defense
    RD = Rushing Defense
    DRD = Differential Rushing Defense
    PD = Passing Defense
    DPD = Differential Passing Defense
    Um... wow

    That is "Shut up and give me your lunch money" defense...

    The Differential Rushing Defense is better than 2005, which was the best for any Div. I-A team of this young century.

    It remains to be seen if it will stay that good through the remainder of the schedule. Either way, it is certainly going to be fun to watch.
     
    BuckTwenty likes this.
  8. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Tough Games Ahead

    DSC and DYC for Ohio State and remaining opponents...


    Team_____DSC_______DYC
    OSU_____4.661_____1.832
    Kent____0.556_____0.939
    MSU_____0.968_____1.159
    PSU_____1.784_____1.361
    Wisc____1.403_____1.266
    Ill_____1.866_____1.090
    scUM____1.403_____1.149


    Where:
    DSC = Differential Scoring Composite (DSO/DSD)
    DYC = Differential Yardage Composite (DTO/DTD)
    While Illinois does indeed appear to be the best team left on the schedule, PSU is suprisingly close: Close enough that the game being at Happy Valley at Night might make it the toughest game remaining.


    I only have 8 words for Kent State:
    Cut your engines and prepare to be boarded!

     
  9. Best Buckeye

    Best Buckeye Pretending I'm a pleasant person is exhausting. Staff Member

    This one fits DBB. 至高
     
  10. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Is that Chinese for, "Woe to you oh earth and sea. For the Tressel sends the beast with wrath because he knows the time is short. Let him who hath understanding reckon the number of the beast; for it is a human number. The beast can be found wearing number 33 in scarlet."
     
    muffler dragon likes this.
  11. Best Buckeye

    Best Buckeye Pretending I'm a pleasant person is exhausting. Staff Member

    Wow DBB you not only read and understand chinese but also the correct dialect. :yow1:






    .actually it is the chinese word for supremacy :tongue2:
     
    muffler dragon likes this.
  12. muffler dragon

    muffler dragon Bien. Bien chiludo.

    I look forward to the DSC for this week.
     
  13. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    As well you should. OSU is not only the new number one in the polls and number one in the BCS. They are number one in DSC.


    Name____________DSC______rk_______DYC______rk
    Ohio St._______5.018______1______1.807______3
    Michigan St.___1.150_____43______1.264_____26
    Penn St._______2.258______9______1.393_____14
    Wisconsin______1.171_____42______1.226_____33
    Illinois_______1.502_____25______0.999_____55
    Michigan_______1.806_____19______1.226_____32




    Where:
    DSC = Differential Scoring Composite (DSO/DSD)
    DYC = Differential Yardage Composite (DTO/DTD)

    Notes:
    • MSU, PSU and Michigan are improving
      • They played at home, so it is not necessarily surprising that their numbers improved
      • But home (theirs) is where PSU and TSUN play OSU. Both schools are playing much better than they did earlier in the year.
      • MSU is a tougher test than some people think
    • Wisky and Illi are going in the wrong direction
      • They played on the road, so it is not entirely surprising that their numbers deteriorated
      • But on the road (the 'Shoe) is where they play us
    • That is a much tougher slate of 5 games than we will get credit for
      • SFW: If we win, we're in
     
  14. muffler dragon

    muffler dragon Bien. Bien chiludo.

    DBB:

    Any chance you'll have the DSC on where the Top 25 stand? I'm interested to see where all the 1-loss teams come in.
     
  15. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Top 47 in Week 7 -- DSC

    In the interest of including the entire "Top 3" in the DSC rankings, I have included the Top 47 this week (as opposed to the Top 35 last week). I guess beating ND by a couple scores doesn't mean what it used to.


    Rank___School_______________DSC
    1______Ohio St._____________5.018
    2______LSU__________________3.627
    3______Kansas_______________3.514
    4______Oklahoma_____________3.137
    5______South Fla.___________3.110
    6______Kansas St.___________2.387
    7______Florida______________2.350
    8______West Virginia________2.278
    9______Penn St._____________2.258
    10_____Boise St.____________2.200
    11_____Auburn_______________2.123
    12_____Cincinnati___________2.091
    13_____Arizona St.__________2.041
    14_____Oregon_______________2.023
    15_____Texas________________2.016
    16_____Missouri_____________2.009
    17_____Kentucky_____________1.925
    18_____Connecticut__________1.863
    19_____Michigan_____________1.806
    20_____Texas Tech___________1.755
    21_____Arkansas_____________1.683
    22_____South Carolina_______1.681
    23_____Rutgers______________1.609
    24_____California___________1.575
    25_____Illinois_____________1.502
    26_____Washington___________1.482
    27_____Virginia Tech________1.462
    28_____Oklahoma St._________1.438
    29_____Colorado_____________1.438
    30_____Georgia______________1.406
    31_____Southern California__1.398
    32_____Georgia Tech_________1.378
    33_____Tennessee____________1.361
    34_____BYU__________________1.321
    35_____Alabama______________1.290
    36_____Florida St.__________1.261
    37_____Central Mich.________1.248
    38_____Purdue_______________1.232
    39_____Oregon St.___________1.212
    40_____Virginia_____________1.206
    41_____Texas A&M____________1.191
    42_____Wisconsin____________1.171
    43_____Michigan St._________1.150
    44_____Air Force____________1.146
    45_____Indiana______________1.137
    46_____Maryland_____________1.130
    47_____Boston College_______1.129
     

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