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Official Statistical Analysis Thread

Discussion in 'Buckeye Football' started by DaddyBigBucks, Aug 7, 2007.

  1. muffler dragon

    muffler dragon Bien. Bien chiludo.

    I can't really say that I'm all that concerned. But when I realize that we've played well on the road thus far, and also keep in mind that Morelli is the opposing quarterback; then I'm much more relaxed with the notion of kicking some Nittany butt in Happy Valley.
     
  2. MrsB

    MrsB A scarlet and grey blooded lady

    Very nice work DBB, I appreciate the effort.
     
  3. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Did anyone notice that our schedule/conference really aren't all that bad? Sure, there are other ways of looking at it, but this is one completely objective bit of evidence that we might be a bit better prepared for our bowl competition than people think.
     
  4. Penn St ranked no 9 with Moronelli at QB is amazing.
     
  5. Taosman

    Taosman Flatten the Curve

    State Penn is a different team on the road(o-2)(not that surprising). It will take a gritty effort to beat them at their home.
    That will be key to our season.
     
  6. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    One way I like to compare teams is based on 3rd down conversions, both offensively and defensively. As with other stats, I like to combine the offensive and defensive numbers to produce one metric.

    There are any number of ways to do it, but I prefer to simply divide Offensive 3rd down Conversion % by the corresponding defensive number.

    This is how it works for Ohio State:
    • Offensive 3rd Dn Conversion %: 46.24
    • Defensive 3rd Dn Conversion %: 28.70
      • Ratio: 46.24/28.70 = 1.6113
    Here are the top 40 in the country on 3rd down:

    Rk___School____________________Ratio
    1____Oklahoma__________________1.6854
    2____Kansas____________________1.6667
    3____Hawaii____________________1.6276
    4____Ohio St.__________________1.6113
    5____South Fla.________________1.5568
    6____Penn St.__________________1.5387
    7____BYU_______________________1.5378 .. wow
    8____Florida___________________1.5098
    9____UCLA______________________1.4937
    10___Arkansas__________________1.4831
    11___Arizona St._______________1.4726
    12___Oregon____________________1.4606
    13___Troy______________________1.4577 .. Not a typo
    14___USC (east)________________1.4468
    15___Boston College____________1.4436
    16___West Virginia_____________1.4387
    17___Wyoming___________________1.4308
    18___Boise St._________________1.4173
    19___USC (west)________________1.4000
    20___New Mexico________________1.3852
    21___Missouri__________________1.3803
    22___Texas Tech________________1.3671
    23___Rutgers___________________1.3613
    24___Texas_____________________1.3348
    25___Georgia___________________1.3259
    26___Ball St.__________________1.2714
    27___Virginia__________________1.2562
    28___LSU_______________________1.2551 .. Seriously
    29___California________________1.2458 .. hmmmm
    30___Oklahoma St.______________1.2326
    31___Kansas St.________________1.2308
    32___Wisconsin_________________1.2308
    33___Kent St.__________________1.2298
    34___Michigan__________________1.2174
    35___Louisville________________1.1967
    36___Connecticut_______________1.1923
    37___Michigan St.______________1.1909
    38___Purdue____________________1.1659
    39___Cincinnati________________1.1550
    40___Kentucky__________________1.1533


    In the interest of fairness... If you subtract the defensive number from the offensive one, rather than divide with it, Kansas drops to fourth and the Buckeyes move to 3rd.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2007
  7. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Points to ponder:
    • Ohio State has won 6 games by more than 17 points
    • OSU was 11 seconds away from a 7th
      • They won that game by 16 points (ahead by 23 at 59:49)
      • Because the lead was higher for most of the 4th, OSU got work for their back-ups in this game as well as all the others
    • No other team has more than 5 wins of more than 17 points
      • Teams with 5:
        • Arizona State
        • Cincinnati
        • Kansas
        • Oregon
        • Penn St
        • Texas Tech
    Given these facts, it seems likely that OSU is getting more reps for depth than anyone else.

    But only 10 teams have allowed opponents fewer offensive plays than OSU has allowed. Of those teams, none has more than 4 wins by > 17 points.

    This suggests that OSU's 1st team defense has fewer in-game reps than any other 1st team defense in the country. Some might see this as a problem; I don't.

    The reps they get seem to be doing the job of helping them improve for the most part. It's OK with me if they endure fewer collisions than any other defense in the country.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2007
  8. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Riffing off of the last post...

    Ohio State's smallest margin of victory was 16 (Purdue). Here are the smallest margins of victory for the remaining undefeated teams:
    • ASU______3 (Washington State)
    • BC______10 (Wake Forest and UMass)
    • Hawaii___1 (Louisiana Tech in OT), also taken to OT by SJSU
    • Kansas___6 (Kansas State)
    • USF______3 (Auburn in OT)
    Every other team in the country had at least one m.o.v. that was negative (that means they lost for those of you from north of Toledo).

    Of all the other teams, it is arguable that Kansas has the best resume as the 6 point win over K-State is hardly shameful and their smallest m.o.v. apart from that is 32 points.

    USF's 3 point overtime victory over Auburn is stout, but they also had a 13 point (smaller than any Buckeye m.o.v.) win over Florida freakin' Atlantic.

    BC's 10 point triumph over the Mighty Massachusetts Minutemen speaks for itself.
     
  9. muffler dragon

    muffler dragon Bien. Bien chiludo.

    And that is something I absolutely love about Tressel and his game planning. Even in the big games, he can cycle so many players, because of the depth he develops.
     
  10. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    For Post #100 in the stat thread, let's compare the remaining 5 unbeaten teams w.r.t. DSC, DYC, and the corresponding numbers for each of their opponents.

    Team/Opponent__________DSC_____RK_____DYC_____RK
    Arizona_St.___________2.041____13____1.291____24
    California____________1.575____24____1.254____27
    Oregon________________2.023____14____1.489____11
    UCLA__________________0.989____57____1.162____37
    Southern_California___1.398____31____1.454____13
    Arizona_______________0.908____68____1.122____41


    Team/Opponent__________DSC_____RK_____DYC_____RK
    Boston College________1.129____47____1.237____28
    Virginia Tech_________1.462____27____0.930____68
    Florida St.___________1.261____36____1.036____49
    Maryland______________1.130____46____0.958____62
    Clemson_______________1.090____51____1.483____12
    Miami (Fla.)__________1.007____56____0.962____61


    Team/Opponent__________DSC_____RK_____DYC_____RK
    Hawaii________________0.881____71____1.227____31
    New Mexico St.________0.499___109____0.920____72
    Fresno St.____________0.925____67____0.805____99
    *Nevada_______________0.522___105____0.841____89
    *Boise St.____________2.200____10____1.877_____2
    Washington____________1.482____26____0.915____74


    Team/Opponent__________DSC_____RK_____DYC_____RK
    Kansas________________3.514_____3____1.642_____8
    Colorado______________1.438____29____1.322____21
    Texas A&M_____________1.191____41____1.058____47
    Nebraska______________0.980____61____1.033____50
    Oklahoma St.__________1.438____28____1.211____35
    Iowa St.______________0.463___115____0.925____69
    Missouri______________2.009____16____1.360____17


    Team/Opponent__________DSC_____RK_____DYC_____RK
    Ohio St.______________5.018_____1____1.807_____3
    Michigan St.__________1.150____43____1.264____26
    Penn St.______________2.258_____9____1.393____14
    Wisconsin_____________1.171____42____1.226____33
    Illinois______________1.502____25____0.999____55
    Michigan______________1.806____19____1.226____32



    LEGEND
    SCARLET indicates the team's best opponent (DSC)
    BLUE indicates the team's worst opponent (DSC)
    * : These numbers do not include the overtime game on Sunday between Boise State and Nevada.
    * : In that game, Nevada scored more points (67) than Boise State had given up to all their other opponents combined (61)
    The reason that Boise State is ranked so high is not because they're good, but because their opponents' opponents (against whom you are compared in DSA) are crappy. In other words, for the most part, BSU's opponents' schedules are very easy, even by their conference's low standards. This is how they struggled against Nevada and lost to Washington though their DSC is much higher than both of those other teams. The real "best opponent" for Hawaii is the Huskies.​

    COMMENTS

    • Only Ohio State and Boston College have remaining schedules comprising all above-average (DSC > 1.000) opponents
    • Hawaii is the only team who will get their toughest remaining opponent at home
      • It is possible that USC will get healthy by the time they play ASU in Tempe.
    • According to DSC, the best remaining opponent for any unbeaten is Penn State. And the Buckeyes play them on the road at night.
      • I like our chances better than ASU at Autzen or BC in Blacksburg at night
    • Ohio State's "worst" remaining opponent, Michigan State, is better than anyone else's "worst" remaining opponent. They are the only "worst remaining opponent" of any of the teams listed who are above average in both DSC and DYC.
    • BC is the only team with no remaining games against teams with a DSC > 2.000.
    • Of the teams listed, only BC and Hawaii have any games remaining against teams ranked higher than them in DSC. And they both have 3 such games remaining. BC's toughest game comes next Thursday night.
    • Comparing each teams numbers to their opponents, DSA suggests that Kansas has the clearest road to being undefeated.
      • Until (if) they get to the Big 12 title game
      • It would be :slappy: if they got caught by the sandwich game against ISU
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2007
    Zurp and MililaniBuckeye like this.
  11. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    From the tables in Post #100, you can calculate the average DSC of the remaining opponents for each of the (so far) undefeated teams.


    Team_________________Avg. DSC of Remaining Opponents
    OHIO STATE___________1.578
    Arizona State________1.378
    Kansas_______________1.253
    Boston College_______1.190
    Hawaii_______________1.125
     
  12. lvbuckeye

    lvbuckeye Silver Surfer

    efficiency stats through week eight:

    Ohio State:
    offensive efficiency: 12.12 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 26.48 yards/point

    Boston College:
    offensive efficiency: 13.17 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 18.27 yards/point

    LSU:
    offensive efficiency: 11.85 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 15.11 yards/point

    Arizona State:
    offensive efficiency: 11.59 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 20.29 yards/point

    Southern California:
    offensive efficiency: 12.57 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 15.22 yards/point

    Oklahoma:
    offensive efficiency: 10.09 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 17.97 yards/point

    Oregon:
    offensive efficiency: 11.83 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 17.56 yards/point

    West Virginia:
    offensive efficiency: 11.42 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 15.37yards/point

    Virginia Tech:
    offensive efficiency: 10.62 yards.point
    defensive efficiency: 18.88 yards/point

    Kansas:
    offensive efficiency: 10.68 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 25.25 yards/point

    Missouri:
    offensive efficiency: 12.89 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 17.88 yards/point

    Penn State:
    offensive efficiency: 12.25 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 18.63 yards/point

    Wisconsin:
    offensive efficiency: 14.05 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 14.94 yards/point

    Illinois:
    offensive efficiency: 14.78 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 18.32 yards/point

    Meatchicken:
    offensive efficiency: 14.09 yards/point
    defensive efficiency: 16.62 yards/point

    Arizona State and Kansas WILL be moving up in this weeks BCS poll. the computers like the numbers those teams are putting up.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2007
  13. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    DSC - Week 8

    Rank____School____________________DSC
    1_______Ohio St.__________________4.252......Those two TD's cost us a lot of DSC
    2_______LSU_______________________3.145
    3_______Kansas____________________2.997
    4_______Oklahoma__________________2.778
    5_______South Fla.________________2.681
    6_______West Virginia_____________2.276
    7_______Missouri__________________2.235
    8_______Auburn____________________2.060
    9_______Florida___________________2.045
    10______Penn St.__________________1.980......and PSU drops a spot to #10
    11______Arizona St._______________1.977
    12______Oregon____________________1.959
    13______Texas_____________________1.912
    14______Kansas St.________________1.901
    15______Connecticut_______________1.860
    16______Arkansas__________________1.836
    17______Michigan__________________1.819
    18______Cincinnati________________1.762
    19______Kentucky__________________1.757
    20______Clemson___________________1.636
    21______Rutgers___________________1.623
    22______Texas Tech________________1.546
    23______Georgia Tech______________1.524
    24______VPI_______________________1.518......next opponent for Mighty #2 in the BCS
    25______USCwest___________________1.513
    26______Colorado__________________1.495
    27______Alabama___________________1.472
    28______Illinois__________________1.462
    29______California________________1.452
    30______Oklahoma St.______________1.423
    31______Washington________________1.420......Brutal schedule, but not really that bad a team
    32______USCeast___________________1.402
    33______Georgia___________________1.331
    34______Boise St._________________1.318
    35______Michigan St.______________1.315
    36______Wisconsin_________________1.307
    37______Purdue____________________1.290
    38______BYU_______________________1.277
    39______Texas A&M_________________1.274
    40______Virginia__________________1.248
    41______FreeShoes_________________1.243
    42______Louisville________________1.204
    43______Maryland__________________1.203
    44______BC________________________1.186......Mighty #2 in the BCS
    45______Indiana___________________1.183
    46______Air Force_________________1.179
    47______Wake Forest_______________1.155
    48______Oregon St.________________1.150
    49______Houston___________________1.137
    50______Miami-FL__________________1.120
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2007
    bkochmc likes this.
  14. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Offense -- Week 8

    Offensive stats for OSU and remaining opponents:

    School_______SO_______DSO______TO_______DTO______RO_______DRO______PO_______DPO
    Ohio_St.____33.714___1.119___414.714___0.991___206.857___1.285___207.857___0.807
    Penn_St.____33.125___1.344___405.875___1.091___186.250___1.242___219.625___0.990
    Wisconsin___27.571___1.179___411.429___1.139___188.143___1.447___223.286___0.966
    Illinois____26.143___1.183___373.571___1.034___223.429___1.794___150.143___0.634
    Michigan____27.857___1.103___388.571___1.019___182.571___1.305___206.000___0.853


    School_______SO_rk___DSO_rk___TO_rk___DTO_rk___RO_rk___DRO_rk___PO_rk___DPO_rk
    Ohio_St.______31_______40______38_______61______17______25_______79_______94
    Penn_St.______36_______17______45_______37______26______26_______66_______60
    Wisconsin_____56_______36______40_______31______24______12_______63_______67
    Illinois______62_______34______71_______47______11_______6______112______114
    Michigan______52_______44______60_______54______28______24_______80_______82



    Where:
    SO = Scoring Offense
    TO = Total Offense
    DSO = Differential Scoring Offense
    DTO = Differential Total Offense
    RO = Rushing Offense
    DRO = Differential Rushing Offense
    PO = Passing Offense
    DPO = Differential Passing Offense

    SO rk = Scoring Offense Rank (DI-A)
    TO rk = Total Offense Rank (DI-A)
    DSO rk = Differential Scoring Offense Rank (DI-A)
    DTO rk = Differential Total Offense Rank (DI-A)
    RO rk = Rushing Offense Rank (DI-A)
    DRO rk = Differential Rushing Offense Rank (DI-A)
    PO rk = Passing Offense Rank (DI-A)
    DPO rk = Differential Passing Offense Rank (DI-A)

    Notes:

    • Notice that Ohio State is the only team in the list whose national rank is lower in differential offense than in the corresponding traditional offensive statistics all the way across the board.
      • This means that all of OSU's opponents have faced above average defenses up to this point, while OSU has faced below average defenses up to this point.
      • As this is the case for most conference teams, it is clear the Big Ten plays above average defense. OSU just happens to have played the worst defenses in the Big Ten so far.
      • The exception is passing defense. All teams on the list (except PSU) are higher in Passing Offense than in Differential Passing Offense. This implies that the Big Ten has issues with pass defense.
    • The Big Ten has gone back to its roots this year. Teams are focused on Rushing both offensively and defensively. Every team on the list is in the Top 28 in Differential Rushing Defense. I would bet that the teams on the list would end up in the Top 25, if not the Top 20 in this metric.
    • Without factoring in Tresselball (leaving points "on the field" for the purpose of shortening the game and protecting the ball), every team left on the schedule has a better offense than "we" do.
     
  15. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie

    Defense -- Week 8

    Defensive stats for OSU and remaining opponents:

    School_______SD_______DSD______TD_______DTD______RD_______DRD______PD_______DPD
    Ohio_St._____8.143___0.263___213.143___0.500____59.143___0.323___154.000___0.632
    Penn_St.____15.000___0.679___279.500___0.834____79.750___0.540___199.750___1.066
    Wisconsin___21.857___0.902___338.857___0.895___143.143___0.864___195.714___0.920
    Illinois____22.429___0.810___389.143___1.029___111.286___0.707___277.857___1.258
    Michigan____17.714___0.607___319.857___0.819___123.571___0.768___196.286___0.855


    School____SD_rk___DSD_rk___TD_rk___DTD_rk___RD_rk___DRD_rk___PD_rk___DPD_rk
    Ohio_St.____1_______1________1_______1________2_______1________2_______2
    Penn_St.____5______16________6______18________8_______7_______27______81
    Wisconsin__31______43_______32______34_______48______40_______24______42
    Illinois___35______31_______59______63_______21______18______102_____111
    Michigan___13_______9_______23______17_______29______25_______25______21




    Where:
    SD = Scoring Defense
    TD = Total Defense
    DSD = Differential Scoring Defense
    DTD = Differential Total Defense
    RD = Rushing Defense
    DRD = Differential Rushing Defense
    PD = Passing Defense
    DPD = Differential Passing Defense


    SD rk = Scoring Defense Rank (DI-A)
    TD rk = Total Defense Rank (DI-A)
    DSD rk = Differential Scoring Defense Rank (DI-A)
    DTD rk = Differential Total Defense Rank (DI-A)
    RD rk = Rushing Defense Rank (DI-A)
    DRD rk = Differential Defense Rank (DI-A)
    PD rk = Passing Defense Rank (DI-A)
    DPD rk = Differential Passing Defense Rank (DI-A)

    Notes:

    • The conclusions drawn by looking at the offense hold true:
      • e.g. These teams are much better at rushing defense than at passing defense.
    • While all of the teams left on the schedule have better offensive stats than the Buckeyes (at least differentially), the Buckeyes are better on defense. Well, "better" isn't really a strong enough word here. They're good, we're freakin' unbelievable.
    • While most people, including me, have been under the impression that Penn State has the (distantly) second best defense in the Big Ten, the differential numbers suggest that it is the Wolverines who have the second best defense in the Big Ten.
    • While the Buckeyes, Badgers and Wolverines play about as well against the pass as against the run (at vastly different levels), the Nittany Lions and Illini focus on the run to the detriment of pass defense (or are just a lot better against the run).
     

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