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Official Statistical Analysis Thread

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Taosman;960467; said:
Ha! I wish! :tongue2:
I've been looking at home and away trends and I don't like what I see.
Click to expand...

I can't really say that I'm all that concerned. But when I realize that we've played well on the road thus far, and also keep in mind that Morelli is the opposing quarterback; then I'm much more relaxed with the notion of kicking some Nittany butt in Happy Valley.
 
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DaddyBigBucks;960369; said:
In the interest of including the entire "Top 3" in the DSC rankings, I have included the Top 47 this week (as opposed to the Top 35 last week). I guess beating ND by a couple scores doesn't mean what it used to.


Rank___School_______________DSC
1______Ohio St._____________5.018
2______LSU__________________3.627
3______Kansas_______________3.514
4______Oklahoma_____________3.137
5______South Fla.___________3.110
6______Kansas St.___________2.387
7______Florida______________2.350
8______West Virginia________2.278
9______Penn St._____________2.258
10_____Boise St.____________2.200
11_____Auburn_______________2.123
12_____Cincinnati___________2.091
13_____Arizona St.__________2.041
14_____Oregon_______________2.023
15_____Texas________________2.016
16_____Missouri_____________2.009
17_____Kentucky_____________1.925
18_____Connecticut__________1.863
19_____Michigan_____________1.806
20_____Texas Tech___________1.755
21_____Arkansas_____________1.683
22_____South Carolina_______1.681
23_____Rutgers______________1.609
24_____California___________1.575
25_____Illinois_____________1.502
26_____Washington___________1.482
27_____Virginia Tech________1.462
28_____Oklahoma St._________1.438
29_____Colorado_____________1.438
30_____Georgia______________1.406
31_____Southern California__1.398
32_____Georgia Tech_________1.378
33_____Tennessee____________1.361
34_____BYU__________________1.321
35_____Alabama______________1.290
36_____Florida St.__________1.261
37_____Central Mich.________1.248
38_____Purdue_______________1.232
39_____Oregon St.___________1.212
40_____Virginia_____________1.206
41_____Texas A&M____________1.191
42_____Wisconsin____________1.171
43_____Michigan St._________1.150
44_____Air Force____________1.146
45_____Indiana______________1.137
46_____Maryland_____________1.130
47_____Boston College_______1.129
Click to expand...

Did anyone notice that our schedule/conference really aren't all that bad? Sure, there are other ways of looking at it, but this is one completely objective bit of evidence that we might be a bit better prepared for our bowl competition than people think.
 
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One way I like to compare teams is based on 3rd down conversions, both offensively and defensively. As with other stats, I like to combine the offensive and defensive numbers to produce one metric.

There are any number of ways to do it, but I prefer to simply divide Offensive 3rd down Conversion % by the corresponding defensive number.

This is how it works for Ohio State:
  • Offensive 3rd Dn Conversion %: 46.24
  • Defensive 3rd Dn Conversion %: 28.70
    • Ratio: 46.24/28.70 = 1.6113
Here are the top 40 in the country on 3rd down:

Rk___School____________________Ratio
1____Oklahoma__________________1.6854
2____Kansas____________________1.6667
3____Hawaii____________________1.6276
4____Ohio St.__________________1.6113
5____South Fla.________________1.5568
6____Penn St.__________________1.5387
7____BYU_______________________1.5378 .. wow
8____Florida___________________1.5098
9____UCLA______________________1.4937
10___Arkansas__________________1.4831
11___Arizona St._______________1.4726
12___Oregon____________________1.4606
13___Troy______________________1.4577 .. Not a typo
14___USC (east)________________1.4468
15___Boston College____________1.4436
16___West Virginia_____________1.4387
17___Wyoming___________________1.4308
18___Boise St._________________1.4173
19___USC (west)________________1.4000
20___New Mexico________________1.3852
21___Missouri__________________1.3803
22___Texas Tech________________1.3671
23___Rutgers___________________1.3613
24___Texas_____________________1.3348
25___Georgia___________________1.3259
26___Ball St.__________________1.2714
27___Virginia__________________1.2562
28___LSU_______________________1.2551 .. Seriously
29___California________________1.2458 .. hmmmm
30___Oklahoma St.______________1.2326
31___Kansas St.________________1.2308
32___Wisconsin_________________1.2308
33___Kent St.__________________1.2298
34___Michigan__________________1.2174
35___Louisville________________1.1967
36___Connecticut_______________1.1923
37___Michigan St.______________1.1909
38___Purdue____________________1.1659
39___Cincinnati________________1.1550
40___Kentucky__________________1.1533


In the interest of fairness... If you subtract the defensive number from the offensive one, rather than divide with it, Kansas drops to fourth and the Buckeyes move to 3rd.
 
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Points to ponder:
  • Ohio State has won 6 games by more than 17 points
  • OSU was 11 seconds away from a 7th
    • They won that game by 16 points (ahead by 23 at 59:49)
    • Because the lead was higher for most of the 4th, OSU got work for their back-ups in this game as well as all the others
  • No other team has more than 5 wins of more than 17 points
    • Teams with 5:
      • Arizona State
      • Cincinnati
      • Kansas
      • Oregon
      • Penn St
      • Texas Tech
Given these facts, it seems likely that OSU is getting more reps for depth than anyone else.

But only 10 teams have allowed opponents fewer offensive plays than OSU has allowed. Of those teams, none has more than 4 wins by > 17 points.

This suggests that OSU's 1st team defense has fewer in-game reps than any other 1st team defense in the country. Some might see this as a problem; I don't.

The reps they get seem to be doing the job of helping them improve for the most part. It's OK with me if they endure fewer collisions than any other defense in the country.
 
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Riffing off of the last post...

Ohio State's smallest margin of victory was 16 (Purdue). Here are the smallest margins of victory for the remaining undefeated teams:
  • ASU______3 (Washington State)
  • BC______10 (Wake Forest and UMass)
  • Hawaii___1 (Louisiana Tech in OT), also taken to OT by SJSU
  • Kansas___6 (Kansas State)
  • USF______3 (Auburn in OT)
Every other team in the country had at least one m.o.v. that was negative (that means they lost for those of you from north of Toledo).

Of all the other teams, it is arguable that Kansas has the best resume as the 6 point win over K-State is hardly shameful and their smallest m.o.v. apart from that is 32 points.

USF's 3 point overtime victory over Auburn is stout, but they also had a 13 point (smaller than any Buckeye m.o.v.) win over Florida freakin' Atlantic.

BC's 10 point triumph over the Mighty Massachusetts Minutemen speaks for itself.
 
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For Post #100 in the stat thread, let's compare the remaining 5 unbeaten teams w.r.t. DSC, DYC, and the corresponding numbers for each of their opponents.

Team/Opponent__________DSC_____RK_____DYC_____RK
Arizona_St.___________2.041____13____1.291____24
California____________1.575____24____1.254____27
Oregon________________2.023____14____1.489____11
UCLA__________________0.989____57____1.162____37
Southern_California___1.398____31____1.454____13
Arizona_______________0.908____68____1.122____41


Team/Opponent__________DSC_____RK_____DYC_____RK
Boston College________1.129____47____1.237____28
Virginia Tech_________1.462____27____0.930____68
Florida St.___________1.261____36____1.036____49
Maryland______________1.130____46____0.958____62
Clemson_______________1.090____51____1.483____12
Miami (Fla.)__________1.007____56____0.962____61


Team/Opponent__________DSC_____RK_____DYC_____RK
Hawaii________________0.881____71____1.227____31
New Mexico St.________0.499___109____0.920____72
Fresno St.____________0.925____67____0.805____99
*Nevada_______________0.522___105____0.841____89
*Boise St.____________2.200____10____1.877_____2
Washington____________1.482____26____0.915____74


Team/Opponent__________DSC_____RK_____DYC_____RK
Kansas________________3.514_____3____1.642_____8
Colorado______________1.438____29____1.322____21
Texas A&M_____________1.191____41____1.058____47
Nebraska______________0.980____61____1.033____50
Oklahoma St.__________1.438____28____1.211____35
Iowa St.______________0.463___115____0.925____69
Missouri______________2.009____16____1.360____17


Team/Opponent__________DSC_____RK_____DYC_____RK
Ohio St.______________5.018_____1____1.807_____3
Michigan St.__________1.150____43____1.264____26
Penn St.______________2.258_____9____1.393____14
Wisconsin_____________1.171____42____1.226____33
Illinois______________1.502____25____0.999____55
Michigan______________1.806____19____1.226____32



LEGEND
SCARLET indicates the team's best opponent (DSC)
BLUE indicates the team's worst opponent (DSC)
​
* : These numbers do not include the overtime game on Sunday between Boise State and Nevada.
* : In that game, Nevada scored more points (67) than Boise State had given up to all their other opponents combined (61)
The reason that Boise State is ranked so high is not because they're good, but because their opponents' opponents (against whom you are compared in DSA) are crappy. In other words, for the most part, BSU's opponents' schedules are very easy, even by their conference's low standards. This is how they struggled against Nevada and lost to Washington though their DSC is much higher than both of those other teams. The real "best opponent" for Hawaii is the Huskies.​

​
COMMENTS

  • Only Ohio State and Boston College have remaining schedules comprising all above-average (DSC > 1.000) opponents
  • Hawaii is the only team who will get their toughest remaining opponent at home
    • It is possible that USC will get healthy by the time they play ASU in Tempe.
  • According to DSC, the best remaining opponent for any unbeaten is Penn State. And the Buckeyes play them on the road at night.
    • I like our chances better than ASU at Autzen or BC in Blacksburg at night
  • Ohio State's "worst" remaining opponent, Michigan State, is better than anyone else's "worst" remaining opponent. They are the only "worst remaining opponent" of any of the teams listed who are above average in both DSC and DYC.
  • BC is the only team with no remaining games against teams with a DSC > 2.000.
  • Of the teams listed, only BC and Hawaii have any games remaining against teams ranked higher than them in DSC. And they both have 3 such games remaining. BC's toughest game comes next Thursday night.
  • Comparing each teams numbers to their opponents, DSA suggests that Kansas has the clearest road to being undefeated.
    • Until (if) they get to the Big 12 title game
    • It would be :slappy: if they got caught by the sandwich game against ISU
 
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From the tables in Post #100, you can calculate the average DSC of the remaining opponents for each of the (so far) undefeated teams.


Team_________________Avg. DSC of Remaining Opponents
OHIO STATE___________1.578
Arizona State________1.378
Kansas_______________1.253
Boston College_______1.190
Hawaii_______________1.125
 
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efficiency stats through week eight:

Ohio State:
offensive efficiency: 12.12 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 26.48 yards/point

Boston College:
offensive efficiency: 13.17 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 18.27 yards/point

LSU:
offensive efficiency: 11.85 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 15.11 yards/point

Arizona State:
offensive efficiency: 11.59 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 20.29 yards/point

Southern California:
offensive efficiency: 12.57 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 15.22 yards/point

Oklahoma:
offensive efficiency: 10.09 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 17.97 yards/point

Oregon:
offensive efficiency: 11.83 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 17.56 yards/point

West Virginia:
offensive efficiency: 11.42 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 15.37yards/point

Virginia Tech:
offensive efficiency: 10.62 yards.point
defensive efficiency: 18.88 yards/point

Kansas:
offensive efficiency: 10.68 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 25.25 yards/point

Missouri:
offensive efficiency: 12.89 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 17.88 yards/point

Penn State:
offensive efficiency: 12.25 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 18.63 yards/point

Wisconsin:
offensive efficiency: 14.05 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 14.94 yards/point

Illinois:
offensive efficiency: 14.78 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 18.32 yards/point

Meatchicken:
offensive efficiency: 14.09 yards/point
defensive efficiency: 16.62 yards/point

Arizona State and Kansas WILL be moving up in this weeks BCS poll. the computers like the numbers those teams are putting up.
 
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DSC - Week 8

Rank____School____________________DSC
1_______Ohio St.__________________4.252......Those two TD's cost us a lot of DSC
2_______LSU_______________________3.145
3_______Kansas____________________2.997
4_______Oklahoma__________________2.778
5_______South Fla.________________2.681
6_______West Virginia_____________2.276
7_______Missouri__________________2.235
8_______Auburn____________________2.060
9_______Florida___________________2.045
10______Penn St.__________________1.980......and PSU drops a spot to #10
11______Arizona St._______________1.977
12______Oregon____________________1.959
13______Texas_____________________1.912
14______Kansas St.________________1.901
15______Connecticut_______________1.860
16______Arkansas__________________1.836
17______Michigan__________________1.819
18______Cincinnati________________1.762
19______Kentucky__________________1.757
20______Clemson___________________1.636
21______Rutgers___________________1.623
22______Texas Tech________________1.546
23______Georgia Tech______________1.524
24______VPI_______________________1.518......next opponent for Mighty #2 in the BCS
25______USCwest___________________1.513
26______Colorado__________________1.495
27______Alabama___________________1.472
28______Illinois__________________1.462
29______California________________1.452
30______Oklahoma St.______________1.423
31______Washington________________1.420......Brutal schedule, but not really that bad a team
32______USCeast___________________1.402
33______Georgia___________________1.331
34______Boise St._________________1.318
35______Michigan St.______________1.315
36______Wisconsin_________________1.307
37______Purdue____________________1.290
38______BYU_______________________1.277
39______Texas A&M_________________1.274
40______Virginia__________________1.248
41______FreeShoes_________________1.243
42______Louisville________________1.204
43______Maryland__________________1.203
44______BC________________________1.186......Mighty #2 in the BCS
45______Indiana___________________1.183
46______Air Force_________________1.179
47______Wake Forest_______________1.155
48______Oregon St.________________1.150
49______Houston___________________1.137
50______Miami-FL__________________1.120
 
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Offense -- Week 8

Offensive stats for OSU and remaining opponents:

School_______SO_______DSO______TO_______DTO______RO_______DRO______PO_______DPO
Ohio_St.____33.714___1.119___414.714___0.991___206.857___1.285___207.857___0.807
Penn_St.____33.125___1.344___405.875___1.091___186.250___1.242___219.625___0.990
Wisconsin___27.571___1.179___411.429___1.139___188.143___1.447___223.286___0.966
Illinois____26.143___1.183___373.571___1.034___223.429___1.794___150.143___0.634
Michigan____27.857___1.103___388.571___1.019___182.571___1.305___206.000___0.853


School_______SO_rk___DSO_rk___TO_rk___DTO_rk___RO_rk___DRO_rk___PO_rk___DPO_rk
Ohio_St.______31_______40______38_______61______17______25_______79_______94
Penn_St.______36_______17______45_______37______26______26_______66_______60
Wisconsin_____56_______36______40_______31______24______12_______63_______67
Illinois______62_______34______71_______47______11_______6______112______114
Michigan______52_______44______60_______54______28______24_______80_______82



Where:
SO = Scoring Offense
TO = Total Offense
DSO = Differential Scoring Offense
DTO = Differential Total Offense
RO = Rushing Offense
DRO = Differential Rushing Offense
PO = Passing Offense
DPO = Differential Passing Offense

SO rk = Scoring Offense Rank (DI-A)
TO rk = Total Offense Rank (DI-A)
DSO rk = Differential Scoring Offense Rank (DI-A)
DTO rk = Differential Total Offense Rank (DI-A)
RO rk = Rushing Offense Rank (DI-A)
DRO rk = Differential Rushing Offense Rank (DI-A)
PO rk = Passing Offense Rank (DI-A)
DPO rk = Differential Passing Offense Rank (DI-A)
​

Notes:

  • Notice that Ohio State is the only team in the list whose national rank is lower in differential offense than in the corresponding traditional offensive statistics all the way across the board.
    • This means that all of OSU's opponents have faced above average defenses up to this point, while OSU has faced below average defenses up to this point.
    • As this is the case for most conference teams, it is clear the Big Ten plays above average defense. OSU just happens to have played the worst defenses in the Big Ten so far.
    • The exception is passing defense. All teams on the list (except PSU) are higher in Passing Offense than in Differential Passing Offense. This implies that the Big Ten has issues with pass defense.
  • The Big Ten has gone back to its roots this year. Teams are focused on Rushing both offensively and defensively. Every team on the list is in the Top 28 in Differential Rushing Defense. I would bet that the teams on the list would end up in the Top 25, if not the Top 20 in this metric.
  • Without factoring in Tresselball (leaving points "on the field" for the purpose of shortening the game and protecting the ball), every team left on the schedule has a better offense than "we" do.
 
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Defense -- Week 8

Defensive stats for OSU and remaining opponents:

School_______SD_______DSD______TD_______DTD______RD_______DRD______PD_______DPD
Ohio_St._____8.143___0.263___213.143___0.500____59.143___0.323___154.000___0.632
Penn_St.____15.000___0.679___279.500___0.834____79.750___0.540___199.750___1.066
Wisconsin___21.857___0.902___338.857___0.895___143.143___0.864___195.714___0.920
Illinois____22.429___0.810___389.143___1.029___111.286___0.707___277.857___1.258
Michigan____17.714___0.607___319.857___0.819___123.571___0.768___196.286___0.855


School____SD_rk___DSD_rk___TD_rk___DTD_rk___RD_rk___DRD_rk___PD_rk___DPD_rk
Ohio_St.____1_______1________1_______1________2_______1________2_______2
Penn_St.____5______16________6______18________8_______7_______27______81
Wisconsin__31______43_______32______34_______48______40_______24______42
Illinois___35______31_______59______63_______21______18______102_____111
Michigan___13_______9_______23______17_______29______25_______25______21




Where:
SD = Scoring Defense
TD = Total Defense
DSD = Differential Scoring Defense
DTD = Differential Total Defense
RD = Rushing Defense
DRD = Differential Rushing Defense
PD = Passing Defense
DPD = Differential Passing Defense
​


SD rk = Scoring Defense Rank (DI-A)
TD rk = Total Defense Rank (DI-A)
DSD rk = Differential Scoring Defense Rank (DI-A)
DTD rk = Differential Total Defense Rank (DI-A)
RD rk = Rushing Defense Rank (DI-A)
DRD rk = Differential Defense Rank (DI-A)
PD rk = Passing Defense Rank (DI-A)
DPD rk = Differential Passing Defense Rank (DI-A)
​

Notes:

  • The conclusions drawn by looking at the offense hold true:
    • e.g. These teams are much better at rushing defense than at passing defense.
  • While all of the teams left on the schedule have better offensive stats than the Buckeyes (at least differentially), the Buckeyes are better on defense. Well, "better" isn't really a strong enough word here. They're good, we're freakin' unbelievable.
  • While most people, including me, have been under the impression that Penn State has the (distantly) second best defense in the Big Ten, the differential numbers suggest that it is the Wolverines who have the second best defense in the Big Ten.
  • While the Buckeyes, Badgers and Wolverines play about as well against the pass as against the run (at vastly different levels), the Nittany Lions and Illini focus on the run to the detriment of pass defense (or are just a lot better against the run).
 
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