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Official Statistical Analysis Thread

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DSC and DYC for Ohio State and remaining opponents...


School_______DSC______DYC
Ohio St.____4.252____1.983
Penn St.____1.980____1.309
Wisconsin___1.307____1.272
Illinois____1.462____1.005
Michigan____1.819____1.243


School_____DSC rk____DYC rk
Ohio St._____1_________2
Penn St.____10________20
Wisconsin___36________25
Illinois____28________56
Michigan____17________30




Where:
DSC = Differential Scoring Composite (DSO/DSD)
DYC = Differential Yardage Composite (DTO/DTD)
DSC rk = Differential Scoring Composite rank
DYC rk = Differential Yardage Composite rank

Illinois no longer appears to be the best team left on the schedule. It looks like Penn State is the 2nd best team in the conference right now;
but with the rate that Michigan is moving up, they will be the second best team in the conference by November 17th. When you factor in the difference in HFA between Crappy Valley and the Pig House, PSU still appears to be the toughest game left.
​
And oh by the way; that is a much tougher slate of games than we will have been given credit for. Contrary to popular opinion, the Big Ten is better (top-to-middle) this year than it was last year. The Buckeyes will be better prepared for stiff competition than the Bowl Opponent expects.
 
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Differential Pass Efficiency - Offense

For all of the differential stats that I have produced in the last 2 years, there is one stat that I have never calculated differentials on, before now.

Passing Efficiency

The numbers that came out of this surprised me. Here is the top 20 (plus a few teams of interest) for Differential Passing Efficiency (offense). As always, games vs. lower division schools have been tossed out.

Rank___School_______________DPE
1______Florida______________1.518
2______Louisville___________1.380
3______Oklahoma_____________1.341
4______Oregon_______________1.328
5______Kentucky_____________1.317
6______Boise St.____________1.264
7______Rutgers______________1.231
8______WVU__________________1.214
9______Missouri_____________1.211
10_____Clemson______________1.205
11_____Arizona St.__________1.203
12_____BC___________________1.198
13_____Cent. Mich.__________1.185
14_____Tulsa________________1.181
15_____Texas Tech___________1.178
16_____Ohio St._____________1.163
17_____OK. St.______________1.152
18_____Hawaii_______________1.146
19_____LSU__________________1.138
20_____Nevada_______________1.133


27_____Mich. St.____________1.101

29_____South Fla.___________1.089

36_____Indiana______________1.071

41_____Penn St._____________1.047
42_____Cal__________________1.041

46_____Michigan_____________1.033

50_____Purdue_______________1.015
51_____Northwestern_________1.014

59_____Wisconsin____________1.003

64_____Washington___________0.989

68_____Minnesota____________0.979

74_____USC-west_____________0.959

88_____Illinois_____________0.894

94_____Iowa_________________0.883



Observations

  • If you haven't been able to acknowledge that Tebow is a great player by just watching, go look in a mirror and admit, at least to yourself, that you're a hater.
  • Brohm is awesome, and he's getting ZERO support
  • #3 is not bad for a freshman
  • Would you have expected Pat White's Mountaineers to be at #8?
  • I have to admit, BC is higher than I expected (12)
  • Boeckman and co. slip to 16th in differential because of the weak pass defenses OSU has played.
  • While OSU is #1 in the Big Ten, every other automatically qualifying conference (BCS) has at least 2 teams ranked above them.
  • Raise your hand if you thought Brian Hoyer would come in 2nd in the Big Ten in DPE.
  • Waddaya know, Morelli is a shade above average.
  • Cal's rank is surprising even when you consider Longshore's injury.
  • USC, of the Trojan variety, is ranked 74th in DPE
  • 74th
  • seriously
  • I'm not making that up
  • SEVENTY FOURTH
  • SEVENTY FREAKIN' FOURTH
  • BELOW the 9th best Big Ten team
  • Only 2 Pac Ten teams (UCLA, OrSU) rank lower
  • Did I mention that USC was 74th?
  • *holy crap*
 
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Differential Pass Efficiency - Defense

Here are the numbers for Defensive Differential Passing Efficiency:



Rank___School_______________DPE
1______South Fla.___________0.658
2______Ohio St._____________0.673
3______LSU__________________0.694
4______Arkansas_____________0.746
5______Clemson______________0.782
6______Conn.________________0.790
7______USC-east_____________0.798
8______Rutgers______________0.801
9______Wash.________________0.807
10_____Az St._______________0.810
11_____Kansas_______________0.815
12_____VPI__________________0.816
13_____TCU__________________0.818
14_____USC-west_____________0.820
15_____NC St._______________0.821
16_____Auburn_______________0.823
17_____Wake_________________0.825
18_____Utah_________________0.834
19_____Ks St._______________0.844
20_____scUM_________________0.847

26_____BC___________________0.885

31_____Purdue_______________0.904

40_____Penn St._____________0.939

42_____OK___________________0.942

50_____Iowa_________________0.973

53_____Illinois_____________0.976

60_____Wisky________________0.994
61_____Miami-FL_____________0.996

66_____Florida______________1.003

77_____Indiana______________1.044

84_____Mich. St.____________1.102

97_____NW___________________1.159

102____L'ville______________1.172
103____Minn.________________1.181



Observations
  • I'm surprised that South Florida is #1. I guess their cornerbacks are the real deal.
  • The Bulls' upcoming game at Connecticut is a match-up of a pair of top-ten pass defenses, at least by this metric.
  • Washington is at #9. Not a horrible team, just a horrible schedule. Their rushing defense is a different story.
  • The #12 DPE offense plays at the #12 DPE defense on Thursday night
  • By this metric, Penn State has the third best pass defense we will have faced to this point.
  • Mighty Oklahoma is #42 in Defensive DPE.
  • Miami is usually good at Pass Defense. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
  • Florida doesn't exactly have the defense that they had last year.
  • Louisville does not have the worst pass defense in the country, so just stop it.
 
Upvote 0
DPE looks like a great stat for looking at Heisman candidates:

Rank___School_______________DPE
1______Florida______________1.518
2______Louisville___________1.380
3______Oklahoma_____________1.341
4______Oregon_______________1.328
5______Kentucky_____________1.317
Click to expand...

Tebow, Dixon, and Woodson are in most folks top-5 right now (along with Hart and Ryan (BC is 12th in this stat), and Brohm and Bradford are on the radar.

But let's not debate the Heisman race in this thread.
 
Upvote 0
Offense -- Week 9

Offensive Stats for OSU and all D-IA opponents:

Team_____SO_____DSO_____TO______DTO_____RO_________DRO_____PO______DPO_____PE______DPE
OSU____34.125__1.200__419.500__1.050__206.000_____1.357__213.500__0.862__157.294__1.198
Akron__19.250__0.716__293.375__0.764__112.625_____0.679__180.750__0.829__113.895__0.931
Wash.__28.750__1.375__367.875__1.079__168.375_____1.473__199.500__0.880__114.277__1.024
NoWst__26.625__1.005__435.875__1.169__115.500______0.752__320.375__1.460__125.692__1.014
Minne__28.375__1.110__428.750__1.155__180.875_____1.157__247.875__1.154__120.431__0.974
PU_____33.625__1.234__418.500__1.072__142.000______0.880__276.500__1.207__126.356__0.991
KSU____20.500__0.675__380.500__0.962__216.625_____1.304__163.875__0.714__113.276__0.846
MSU____33.556__1.319__435.778__1.199__213.111______1.354__222.667__1.080__133.805__1.081
PSU____31.333__1.384__390.000__1.105__181.000______1.259__209.000__0.999__125.865__1.087
Wisc___28.250__1.128__412.875__1.101__199.500_____1.381__213.375__0.925__126.925__0.988
Ill____26.375__1.150__385.500__1.040__236.000______1.671__149.500__0.651__107.982__0.877
UM_____28.625__1.081__410.125__1.037__198.125_____1.389__212.000__0.839__132.061__1.051


Numbers in red indicate the best among OSU opponents.





And:
SO = Scoring Offense
TO = Total Offense
DSO = Differential Scoring Offense
DTO = Differential Total Offense
RO = Rushing Offense
DRO = Differential Rushing Offense
PO = Passing Offense
DPO = Differential Passing Offense
PE = Passing Efficiency
DPE = Differential Passing Efficiency

​
Notes:​

  • Going by Differential Analysis; the best offenses on the schedule are now all in the rear view mirror
  • The three remaining teams have a higher DRO than any team we've played thus far, with the exception of Washington (believe it or not).
  • With the exception of the 2 MAC teams, all of OSU's opponents are above average on offense (Both DSO and DTO are > 1.000)
 
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Upvote 0
Defense -- Week 9

Differential Defensive Stats for OSU and D-IA opponents:

Team____SD______DSD_____TD______DTD______RD_______DRD_____PD______DPD_____PE______DPE
OSU_____9.250__0.304__219.375__0.524___69.125_____0.382__150.250__0.632___86.667__0.685
Akron__28.375__1.154__383.625__1.074__185.125_____1.280__198.500__0.935__134.270__1.051
Wash.__34.125__1.088__474.000__1.170__214.625_____1.329__259.375__1.064__131.888__0.922
NW_____34.375__1.224__432.250__1.100__176.375_____1.059__255.875__1.130__145.569__1.132
Minn___38.375__1.444__530.625__1.382__180.750_____1.280__349.875__1.440__151.080__1.210
PU_____23.750__0.879__384.500__1.004__136.250_____0.866__248.250__1.101__109.977__0.860
KSU____32.750__1.243__395.875__1.045__162.750_____1.142__233.125__0.986__149.713__1.188
MSU____25.778__1.108__337.000__0.949__129.889_____0.975__207.111__0.933__131.983__1.109
PSU____17.444__0.741__298.778__0.861___93.111______0.572__205.667__1.117__115.865__0.971
Wisc___19.500__0.769__328.750__0.865__143.375_____0.856__185.375__0.872__111.799__0.934
Ill____21.750__0.765__382.625__0.989__118.625_____0.721__264.000__1.187__124.475__0.958
Mich___16.750__0.581__308.750__0.781__124.625______0.739__184.125__0.811__102.128__0.832


Numbers in red are the best among OSU opponents.




And:
SD = Scoring Defense
TD = Total Defense
DSD = Differential Scoring Defense
DTD = Differential Total Defense
RD = Rushing Defense
DRD = Differential Rushing Defense
PD = Passing Defense
DPD = Differential Passing Defense
PE = Passing Efficiency (defense)
DPE = Differential Passing Efficiency (defense)

​
Notes:​

  • While Penn State has the best Total Defense, Rushing Defense and Differential Rushing Defense of any of our opponents; Michigan is the best defense on the schedule in every other category.
  • After the events of the non-conference part of the schedule, the aforementioned is a disgrace to the conference. Yes, Michigan is playing much better defense now than they did at the beginning of the season. It is nevertheless a black-eye on the conference that they are the 2nd best defense we have.
  • What this implies is questionable, as OSU just ran all over what is BY FAR the best rushing defense on the schedule.
  • Ohio State's defense is vastly superior to every defense on the schedule in every single category.
 
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Upvote 0
Michigan has certainly stepped their game up, further proving our league is terrible. The Game, however, is always a battle, regardless of stats and records.

How does Boeckman's passing stats compare to the nation in terms of the defenses he's played? He now has the 3rd best passer rating in the nation. Should we now be saying "All hail the glory of Todd Boeckman" ?
 
Upvote 0
rocketman;975610; said:
How does Boeckman's passing stats compare to the nation in terms of the defenses he's played?
Click to expand...

Ohio State's (not just Todd's) Differential Passing Efficiency is 9th in the nation.

EDIT: Just ran Todd's numbers, and by himself he is 6th in the nation in this metric, less than a thousandth of a point outside of the top 5.

It may be a good thing that I started keeping this stat last week, because it may have been my last chance to catch Todd outside of the top 10 in this metric.

rocketman;975610; said:
He now has the 3rd best passer rating in the nation. Should we now be saying "All hail the glory of Todd Boeckman" ?
Click to expand...

:lol: (Inside joke referring to the old Troy Smith thread - the one that was lost to history :()

We are getting close. But we are also getting close to saying "All hail the glory of The Ohio State Defense" and "All hail the glory of Beanie Wells". This team has so many stars that it has no stars.
 
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DSC - Top 35 - Week 9

Rank__Team____________DSC
1_____Ohio St.________3.951
2_____Kansas__________3.064
3_____LSU_____________3.056
4_____Okla.___________2.737
5_____WVU_____________2.668
6_____S.Fla.__________2.389
7_____AzSU____________2.080
8_____Ore.____________2.054
9_____Aub.____________1.988
10____KsSU____________1.916
11____Conn.___________1.910
12____Miz_____________1.875
13____PSU_____________1.868
14____TSUN____________1.860
15____Ark.____________1.785
16____Fla.____________1.785
17____Cinci___________1.755
18____Clem.___________1.700
19____TX______________1.692
20____USC-w___________1.600
21____VPI_____________1.545
22____'Bama___________1.538
23____GT______________1.514
24____Rutg.___________1.505
25____Ill_____________1.504
26____Col.____________1.495
27____Cal_____________1.471
28____K-ucky__________1.470
29____Wisc____________1.466
30____OkSU____________1.445
31____Boise___________1.430
32____T-Tech__________1.427
33____UGA_____________1.423
34____PU______________1.404
35____BC______________1.338


Notes:

  • Ohio State, like last year, is way out in front in this stat.
  • All of OSU's remaining opponents are in the top 30 in DSC.
  • OSU's DSC is more than double Michigan's.
  • Boston College is back up to 35th in the nation (just behind Purdue). Go eagles!
 
Upvote 0
DSC and DYC for OSU and D-IA Opponents:

Team______________DSC______DYC
Ohio St._________3.951____2.003
Akron____________0.621____0.711
Washington_______1.264____0.923
Northwestern_____0.821____1.062
Minnesota________0.769____0.836
Purdue___________1.404____1.068
Kent St._________0.543____0.921
Michigan St._____1.190____1.263
Penn St._________1.868____1.283
Wisconsin________1.466____1.272
Illinois_________1.504____1.051
Michigan_________1.860____1.329




Team______________DSC rk___DYC rk
Ohio St.____________1_________2
Akron______________95_______107
Washington_________39________71
Northwestern_______77________47
Minnesota__________82________93
Purdue_____________34________46
Kent St.__________108________72
Michigan St._______43________24
Penn St.___________13________20
Wisconsin__________29________22
Illinois___________25________50
Michigan___________14________15



Where:
DSC = Differential Scoring Composite (DSO/DSD)
DYC = Differential Yardage Composite (DTO/DTD)
DSC rk = DSC national rank
DYC rk = DYC national rank
​

Notes:

  • Michigan and Penn State are Ohio State's best opponents and it's not really all that close. As the result between them showed, they are a good match for each other. They are less of a good match for the Buckeyes.
  • While Wisconsin and Illinois will be our best home opponents, we just clobbered a better team on the road.
  • 4 Top-30 teams in a row is a tall order. Strength & Conditioning coaches will have earned their pay if OSU makes it through this unscathed.
 
Upvote 0
Differential Pass Efficiency - Offense

Rank__________Team__________________DPE
__1____(2)____Florida_______________1.503
__2___(10)____Louisville____________1.367
__3____(1)____Oklahoma______________1.340
__4____(5)____Oregon________________1.314
__5___(15)____Kentucky______________1.242
__6____(9)____West Virginia_________1.231
__7___(14)____Clemson_______________1.222
__8____(8)____Boise St._____________1.199
__9____(6)____Ohio St.______________1.198
_10____(7)____Arizona St.___________1.187
_11____(4)____Texas Tech____________1.187
_12___(13)____Missouri______________1.176
_13___(18)____Central Mich._________1.164
_14___(11)____Tulsa_________________1.157
_15____(3)____Hawaii________________1.156
_16___(22)____Oklahoma St.__________1.155
_17___(21)____Rutgers_______________1.149
_18___(29)____Boston College________1.143
_19___(33)____LSU___________________1.133
_20___(54)____North Carolina________1.131
_21___(50)____Maryland______________1.127
_22___(17)____Nevada________________1.111
_23___(23)____New Mexico St.________1.111
_24___(12)____Cincinnati____________1.104
_25___(35)____Tennessee_____________1.091
_26___(25)____Nebraska______________1.090
_27___(59)____Penn St.______________1.087
_28___(43)____Washington St.________1.085
_29___(31)____Michigan St.__________1.081
_30___(26)____Arizona_______________1.078
.
.
.
_42___(36)____Michigan______________1.051
.
_44___(20)____Kansas________________1.049
.
.
_49___(89)____Washington____________1.024
_50___(40)____Connecticut___________1.020
_51___(60)____Northwestern__________1.014
_52___(48)____Indiana_______________1.010
.
.
_59___(55)____Purdue________________0.991
.
_61___(52)____Wisconsin_____________0.988
.
.
_68___(78)____Minnesota_____________0.974
.
.
_71___(45)____Southern California___0.970
.
.
.
_84___(90)____Akron_________________0.931
.
.
.
_96__(104)____Illinois______________0.877
.
.
100___(98)____Iowa__________________0.864
.
.
105___(91)____Kent St.______________0.846



Numbers in parentheses are raw passing efficiency ranking.

Big Ten teams and OSU OOC opponents are in red.

Notes:

  • Tebow has been good. Too bad his teammates on defense haven't
  • It will be interesting to see how Ohio State manages against a good passing offense. They won't face one in the top 25 in this metric until the Bowl Game.
  • We've faced two in the Top 30. The best DPE left is Michigan at #42, though they would be much higher than this if Henne had stayed healthy.
  • DPE is less impressed with Matt Ryan's comeback vs. VaTech than the media is. He fell 6 spots from his ranking last week.
  • Kansas is undefeated and ranked #44 in this metric. Quick, someone call Colin Cowheard and remind him that defense matters. (Admittedly, the difference in QB play may be what costs Kansas against Missouri).
  • Big East leading Connecticut is number 50 in DPE. Get Colin Cowheard back on the phone. Defense still matters.
  • Six Big Ten teams are above average in DPE. Purdue is not one of them.
  • USC-west is ranked 71st in DPE. But maybe I mentioned their ranking last week.
  • Though ranked 7 spots above Penn State in raw Passing Efficiency, Wisconsin is ranked 34 spots below the Nittany Lions in DPE.
 
Upvote 0
DaddyBigBucks;975962; said:
Quick, someone call Colin Cowheard and remind him that defense matters. (Admittedly, the difference in QB play may be what costs Kansas against Missouri).
Big East leading Connecticut is number 50 in DPE. Get Colin Cowheard back on the phone. Defense still matters.
Click to expand...

DBB:

I would LOVE for you to call into his show and give him some of these statistical figures. Granted, it would be four stories over his head, but at least, it would stump his dumb ass for a while.
 
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