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Ohio State Men's Lacrosse (2013 ECAC Champions)

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Got one step closer to the NCAAs yesterday with beating Rut in the Shoe. Not as complete of a game as UMD, but definitely playing some of the better ball all season.

We’ve got Hop in the first round of the B1G Friday in AA. Rut will take on UMD. Winners to the B1G championship game and an automatic bid.

Kicking things around with @LaxFilmRoom from twitters... roughly 60% chance a win in the first round will be enough for an at large bid based on expected RPI... either way, not enough to feel good about things without the auto bid as champions.
 
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I think we beat Hop, we are in. Here is what we are rooting for:

1) A second matchup with Maryland. Rutgers is now a bubble team, one that we have a H2H over, but still a bubble team. No reason to give them a good win.

2) Denver wins the Big East. While I would love for the Marquette loss to look a bit better, anyone besides the Pioneers winning that bid hurts us. Plus we lost to Denver too.. so whatever. Added to this, I very much would like Georgetown to beat Villanova and knock them off the bubble.

3) ACC went swimmingly for us. Notre Dame was probably getting in regardless, especially with their win over Duke in the semis. So them winning the whole thing makes that loss look a whole lot better. Plus Syracuse taking that first round loss put them at major risk. Virginia is probably safe now too, but the Orange are a ripe bubble to pop.

4) Towson or Hofstra to win the CAA. UMass is a bubble team, but I don't think they get in at this point without the auto-bid. The Tigers or Pride winning would be great. Luckily they are on opposite sides of the bracket, so we could get this final matchup. The Pride would have to upset UMass for that to happen.

5) Detroit Mercy to make a run through the MAAC tournament. It's a one-bid league, so might as well be a team we beat. They are the #2 seed and their only loss is to #1 by 3. The Monmoth match will be tough (only won that one in OT) but would give our SOS a bit of a boost.

6) Jacksonville to win the SoCon. All these games were close in this conference, so it's doable. Every little bit helps at this point.


A couple notes: Cleveland State win was useless. Boston U did us a solid by not only severely weakening Bucknell's chances, but giving that win a bit more punch. Too bad they couldn't pull off one more win. Navy falling on their face against Lehigh was a big deal in the Patriot League. Plus then they lost in the championship making sure no bid was stolen. Big deal.
 
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So I played with the predictor: http://www.insidelacrosse.com/league/DI/calendar

Here's what I found:

- We are pretty much stuck at 12 except for a very few number of results (I can't include championship games yet... so don't know how that would factor in). And that's if we win over Hopkins.

- We can't have Rutgers beat Maryland. It drops us to 13. It's the only result I could find that on it's own would do that. The Knights would jump us even with our H2H win.

- We need Yale to win the Ivy. Penn will jump us with a win over Yale. Cornell can't jump us, but would be a bid stealer. We could see three bids if Cornell beats Penn in the final.

- Syracuse/Colgate is a damn big deal. It's a rescheduled game. If the Orange win, nothing really changes. But if they lose... we move to 11th. And that might be the difference.

- We can't jump Nova... even if they lose to Georgetown. Nothing.

- We can only jump Virginia into 10... if lots of things go our way. They have to lose to VMI and Stony Brook needs to beat Vermont. Then we are so close, that all the games involving our lower OOC matter. We do need a win from Towson and we need a combination of wins from Jacksonville, Detroit, and Hofstra (not ALL, but like 2-). They need Furman to win. Even though Nova can't jump us, it'll help if they lose to G'town. Somehow U-Mass Lowell beating Albany helps us, but that would lead to a bid-steal. In this situation, a Yale loss really screws us (basically stuck back at 12th) but a Cornell win is actually helpful.

So.. here is what we are rooting for... in order of importance)

1) Beat JHU (otherwise we are OUT)

2) Maryland over Rutgers (otherwise Rutgers jumps us)

3) Yale over Penn (otherwise Penn jumps us) and then to beat Cornell (We want Big Red to win one but not be a bid-steal)

4) Denver to win the BE (no bid steal)

5) Albany to win the American East (bid-steal)

6) Colgate over Syracuse (So we can jump them... no other stipulations here)

7) VMI over Virginia (Add in some stuff below and we jump them)

8) Stony Brook over Vermont (So we actually jump UVA)

9) Towson over Delaware (keeps us above UVA)

10) Pick two: Detroit win, Jacksonville win, Hofstra win

11) Georgetown over Villanova

12) Furman loss

The upsets are the two ACC teams dropping those games. All the other stuff is doable. If the ACC teams don't lay eggs, all eyes on the Ivy League where we desperately need Yale to win it all to be a one-bid conference
 
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rampageripster said:
So I played with the predictor: http://www.insidelacrosse.com/league/DI/calendar

Here's what I found:

- We are pretty much stuck at 12 except for a very few number of results (I can't include championship games yet... so don't know how that would factor in). And that's if we win over Hopkins.

- We can't have Rutgers beat Maryland. It drops us to 13. It's the only result I could find that on it's own would do that. The Knights would jump us even with our H2H win.

- We need Yale to win the Ivy. Penn will jump us with a win over Yale. Cornell can't jump us, but would be a bid stealer. We could see three bids if Cornell beats Penn in the final.

- Syracuse/Colgate is a damn big deal. It's a rescheduled game. If the Orange win, nothing really changes. But if they lose... we move to 11th. And that might be the difference.

- We can't jump Nova... even if they lose to Georgetown. Nothing.

- We can only jump Virginia into 10... if lots of things go our way. They have to lose to VMI and Stony Brook needs to beat Vermont. Then we are so close, that all the games involving our lower OOC matter. We do need a win from Towson and we need a combination of wins from Jacksonville, Detroit, and Hofstra (not ALL, but like 2-). They need Furman to win. Even though Nova can't jump us, it'll help if they lose to G'town. Somehow U-Mass Lowell beating Albany helps us, but that would lead to a bid-steal. In this situation, a Yale loss really screws us (basically stuck back at 12th) but a Cornell win is actually helpful.
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... and monkeys might fly out of my butt. LOL.


rampageripster said:
So.. here is what we are rooting for... in order of importance)

1) Beat JHU (otherwise we are OUT)

2) Maryland over Rutgers (otherwise Rutgers jumps us)

3) Yale over Penn (otherwise Penn jumps us) and then to beat Cornell (We want Big Red to win one but not be a bid-steal)

4) Denver to win the BE (no bid steal)

5) Albany to win the American East (bid-steal)

6) Colgate over Syracuse (So we can jump them... no other stipulations here)

7) VMI over Virginia (Add in some stuff below and we jump them)

8) Stony Brook over Vermont (So we actually jump UVA)

9) Towson over Delaware (keeps us above UVA)

10) Pick two: Detroit win, Jacksonville win, Hofstra win

11) Georgetown over Villanova

12) Furman loss

The upsets are the two ACC teams dropping those games. All the other stuff is doable. If the ACC teams don't lay eggs, all eyes on the Ivy League where we desperately need Yale to win it all to be a one-bid conference
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1: I give that a 55/45 chance of happening. Would like to say that it's higher, but I can't. And I'd only give it 55/45 because we finally seem to have figured out things on offense and Inacio seems to be coming on at the dot.

2: This should be a slam dunk. 90/10

3: Another high probability Yale > Penn. 90/10. I also expect Cornell to win their first game. Trouble is, Cornell is playing pretty good ball too. Yale / Cornell is a very close call.

4: Slam dunk. 85/15

5: I can't imagine Albany spitting the bit here. They could play down a bit, but God, I hope not. Too well coached and too many weapons not to have one or two of them put the team on their backs.

6: Don't see it happening.

7: Didn't even realize this game has yet to be played. With UVA who the hell knows what team is going to show up. I'd like to say this should be UVA going away... but...

8: Don't see Vermont dropping this one.

9: I think that the Towson D gets it done.

10: Jacksonville and Hofstra have to be my picks.

11: If forced, I'd put my money on the Nova side of the line.

12: Haven't watched any Furman LAX this year. Or, frankly... ever, for that matter. LOL

I agree, it's a good chance based on RPI that if we get by Hop we could get an at large bid. Some things need to fall in place to make it an easier selection... but across the board, even with the favorites winning except Hop, I think it gets us darn close. Maybe we get some extra credit for figuring things out late in the season. They really are a bit of a roll. My man Carcaterra agrees.
 
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I think I agree with most of what you said there. I think Cuse will whip Colgate, but Virginia is so up and down... maybe that's the boost we need. It's too bad though, cause a straight Cuse loss gets us over them no matter what. Virginia is the one where all the other crap needs to happen to keep us there.

I think we are in if three things happen:

1) We beat Hop
2) RU loses to UMD
3) There are no bid-steals.

Being #12 will probably be enough cause there will be 4 auto-bids outside the top 12. So with 16 bids, that gives us 12 at-large. We are literally the bubble.

Or we can just win the damn tournament and take destiny in our own hands.
 
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rampageripster said:
I think I agree with most of what you said there. I think Cuse will whip Colgate, but Virginia is so up and down... maybe that's the boost we need. It's too bad though, cause a straight Cuse loss gets us over them no matter what. Virginia is the one where all the other crap needs to happen to keep us there.

I think we are in if three things happen:

1) We beat Hop
2) RU loses to UMD
3) There are no bid-steals.

Being #12 will probably be enough cause there will be 4 auto-bids outside the top 12. So with 16 bids, that gives us 12 at-large. We are literally the bubble.

Or we can just win the damn tournament and take destiny in our own hands.
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I'm in violent agreement with both options. I agree. No bid-steals and we upset (?) Hop and UMD holds serve and we're in. Would be nice to down UMD twice in a year... but then, for the second year in a row, know that you'll likely see them a third time.

So bummed about this weekend. Have two games on Saturday myself and kiddo-1 plays on T/W/Th/Fr night... I'd pack it up and head to AA if it weren't so busy... I'd love to see their facility. It's apparently very nice. Like Arlotta, but nicer... and with out Kevin's trucker mouth... not that I'm much better, but I at least make an attempt.
 
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sparcboxbuck said:
So bummed about this weekend. Have two games on Saturday myself and kiddo-1 plays on T/W/Th/Fr night... I'd pack it up and head to AA if it weren't so busy... I'd love to see their facility. It's apparently very nice. Like Arlotta, but nicer... and with out Kevin's trucker mouth... not that I'm much better, but I at least make an attempt.
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The storm totally wrecked our scheduling up here... I work basically every day for the next forever...

Jv/V last night
V tonight
JV/V Thursday
JV/V Friday
V Saturday Morning, V Saturday Night (with a MNUFC game in between)
9/10 Sunday afternoon
JV/V next Monday
JV/V next Tuesday
V next Wednesday
JV/V next Thursday
JV/V next Friday
2 9/10 Saturday Morning, JV/V Saturday night (again with a MNUFC game in between)
JV/V that next Monday

That 26 games in 13 days
 
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rampageripster said:
The storm totally wrecked our scheduling up here... I work basically every day for the next forever...

Jv/V last night
V tonight
JV/V Thursday
JV/V Friday
V Saturday Morning, V Saturday Night (with a MNUFC game in between)
9/10 Sunday afternoon
JV/V next Monday
JV/V next Tuesday
V next Wednesday
JV/V next Thursday
JV/V next Friday
2 9/10 Saturday Morning, JV/V Saturday night (again with a MNUFC game in between)
JV/V that next Monday

That 26 games in 13 days
Click to expand...


That's good exercise! I'm thinking that once the kid is through HS I'm either going to coach at the HS level or call games. I'm leaning toward calling games because, well... frankly, I think I could do a much better job than some of the guys here in IL. Last night was a great example.

Face off situation. Ball comes out and blue pushes white in the back. White player supermans face first into the turf. Loose ball push, right? Flag flies. Thinking this is an easy one. Play on until blue gains possession and stop and waive it off if white wins possession.

Not so fast my friend...

Ball continues to roll to the restraining box. Blue pole gains possession. Possession called, blue pole advances ball to offensive box and gets the touch.

Whistle blows. Thankfully, someone realizes that play should have been called dead once blue gained possession.

Nope.

Restart play at midfield possession awarded to blue.

Mind you, my kid wears blue. So, this is from a biased eye... but in the other direction.

Last week, and this is no joke either, red team advancing the ball up field in a clear. Middie runs out of bounds while advancing. Happens in front of the stands and everyone can see it. Crowd makes some noise about it. Official clearly saw the player go out as he was at the top of the restraining box on the OB line.

Red player gets his touch and settles. Looks at the official and says, "I was OB." Drops the ball and gets in defensive position.

Some of the best sportsmanship I've seen in a long time. He clearly didn't have to call himself out. After the game I approached their coach and told him what player 2-7 did... and hoped that he gave the kid a pat on the back for his sportsmanship.
 
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Welp, UVA took care of business.... Rooting interests tonight:

Detroit > Monmouth (not super important)
Denver > Marquette (vital)
Hofstra > UMass (not super important)
Ohio St > JHU (duh)
Albany > UML (vital)
Towson > Delaware (not super important)
Jacksonville> HPU (not super important)
Maryland > Rutgers
 
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