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Game Thread Ohio State vs Michigan State - 10/05/19, 7:30PM (ABC)

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EARLY ACTION. Football is still almost three months away, but you can now bet on half of Ohio State's games, if you're into that sort of thing.

The sports book BetOnline.ag already has early lines for six Ohio State football games, and the Buckeyes are favorites in all but the biggest one.
  • Ohio State -13.5 vs. Michigan State
What if I were to tell you that there was a betting trend that hit .933 percent of the time over the past 15 years in Ohio State vs. Michigan games...

Entire article: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/skul...-hall-of-fame-best-tradition-college-football
 
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Sparty has all of the elements that can actually hurt this OSU team imo.

Best defense Fields has seen by far. He'll see more pressure, varied coverage and overall talent than perhaps any regular season opponent all year.

Lewerke, when he's on, is the kind of QB you just don't want to see. He's accurate enough to pick apart zones and mobile enough to hurt you in critical spots when you play man.

I always assume we are going to see the play-out-of-their-fucking-skull version of Sparty so just go with that when you point to some of their clunkers against ASU or whatnot.

The weakness I see in Sparty is their OL is bad. They can't run the ball consistently.

Can they get the ball out of Lewerke's hands before the OSU pass rush gets home? To me, this early in the week, that is the question.

I know a lot of folks were concerned about the road game at Nebraska. This one is the one that has quietly concerned me for a couple of weeks now.
 
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I think we will learn about our offense this week. As crazy as it seems with how things have been humming along, I think Sparty has the personnel to potentially slow the run game. Can our offense adjust to having that taken away? I don't know if Fields is there yet in the short and intermediate passing game. We have been very successful in the deep passing game, but if we don't hit those at 50% or higher like we have been, I can definitely see Sparty slowing us down. Haven't seen any of Sparty-Hoosier game, but the box score leads me to believe that Indiana probably gave Day and the offensive staff a nice blueprint for success, though.

I don't think that it matters either way. We should score enough to outpace whatever the Sparty O will be able to muster against our D. Protect the ball and I think we will win comfortably, but probably in as dominating manner as we have the past month.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Sparty has all of the elements that can actually hurt this OSU team imo.

Best defense Fields has seen by far. He'll see more pressure, varied coverage and overall talent than perhaps any regular season opponent all year.

Lewerke, when he's on, is the kind of QB you just don't want to see. He's accurate enough to pick apart zones and mobile enough to hurt you in critical spots when you play man.

I always assume we are going to see the play-out-of-their-fucking-skull version of Sparty so just go with that when you point to some of their clunkers against ASU or whatnot.

The weakness I see in Sparty is their OL is bad. They can't run the ball consistently.

Can they get the ball out of Lewerke's hands before the OSU pass rush gets home? To me, this early in the week, that is the question.

I know a lot of folks were concerned about the road game at Nebraska. This one is the one that has quietly concerned me for a couple of weeks now.
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All excellent points but I just come back to just how the hell is Sparty gonna score? They couldn't even muster a TD against the worst OSU defense ever at home. Granted Lewerke was banged up but honestly, this Sparty offense doesn't really look any better than last year.

Offensively I think you might be right though. I think Fields throws his first pick (maybe 2) this upcoming Saturday but I still think OSU at least gets to 20 points if not 30. Question is can Sparty match that?
 
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Ryan36_1 said:
I think we will learn about our offense this week. As crazy as it seems with how things have been humming along, I think Sparty has the personnel to potentially slow the run game. Can our offense adjust to having that taken away? I don't know if Fields is there yet in the short and intermediate passing game. We have been very successful in the deep passing game, but if we don't hit those at 50% or higher like we have been, I can definitely see Sparty slowing us down. Haven't seen any of Sparty-Hoosier game, but the box score leads me to believe that Indiana probably gave Day and the offensive staff a nice blueprint for success, though.

I don't think that it matters either way. We should score enough to outpace whatever the Sparty O will be able to muster against our D. Protect the ball and I think we will win comfortably, but probably in as dominating manner as we have the past month.
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Sparty's D is built to stop the run and intermediate passing game. They are susceptible to the deep ball (if you can get time). IU was giving them trouble with their big bodied WR just outmanning the smaller MSU corners.

I do understand that Sparty's offense shouldn't be a problem but I have seen that act too many times to fall for it.

Assume they'll play at a level 9 -10x their actual talent/past performance would reasonably allow for.
 
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I was confident about the Indiana game. I was supremely confident about the Nebraska game. Both were based on a belief that dominance on the line of scrimmage was a forgone conclusion.

I think Ohio State will beat MSU, but I am not nearly as confident about this one. Part of it is about a dominant DL being part of the recipe for stopping either of these offenses (see Jax’s post in the Nebraska thread), part of it has to do with playing the upset contest the past few years.

That MSU has the best DL we’ve played to this point is hardly controversial. Will they be able to dominate the Buckeye OL? Only if the Buckeyes sleepwalk, but stranger things have happened. Similarly, the Sparty OL is very inconsistent. It would take their best combined with the Silver Bullets’ worst for anything BUT defensive line domination to occur. Again, stranger things have happened.

So why am I concerned about the inconsistent Spartans playing out of their minds? That’s where the upset thread comes in. If you follow it closely as most of us do, you notice that there are patterns to upsets. A team that underperforms or gets upset one week, especially if they were looking ahead to a huge game, seems more likely to pull off an upset than a team coming off a huge victory. Eight days ago, Ole Miss and UNC were upset because they got caught looking ahead. Yesterday, they won the first quarter against Alabama and Clemson respectively, and the Tar Heels damn near pulled it off.

Also yesterday, MSU almost let Indiana steal one in East Lansing. That was my pick in the upset contest, because I thought the Spartans might get caught looking ahead. It was close, but Sparty escaped. Saturday night, the other side of that pattern will come calling at Ohio Stadium. If the Buckeyes are who I think they are, they’ll weather it just fine and remind Sparty that they’re Sparty and this isn’t Sparta. This isn’t 1998; this isn’t 2015. The reasons for concern are different, as are (some of) the reasons for confidence.

A four game stretch of tests began yesterday and the Buckeyes left no doubt about the questions posed by the Huskers. A new set of questions will be posed by the Spartans. Stay confident, always, but don’t miss the questions the Buckeyes are answering by denying that there are questions.
 
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I know that the game we played in Bloomington was two calendar weeks and three games ago, and that Sparty may have been looking past Indiana yesterday in their FG-at-the-end win, but I fail to see how the line for this game is only 13.5. Seriously. We curb stomp Indy at their place by 41. Sparty squeaks by them at home 34-31 on a last second FG. While transitive properties are not always a good measure of future outcome, there is such a disparity in the two outcomes--along with the fact the game is at The Shoe--that having a line under 2 TDs should be borderline counterfeiting.
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
I know that the game we played in Bloomington was two calendar weeks and three games ago, and that Sparty may have been looking past Indiana yesterday in their FG-at-the-end win, but I fail to see how the line for this game is only 13.5. Seriously. We curb stomp Indy at their place by 41. Sparty squeaks by them at home 34-31 on a last second FG. While transitive properties are not always a good measure of future outcome, there is such a disparity in the two outcomes--along with the fact the game is at The Shoe--that having a line under 2 TDs should be borderline counterfeiting.
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MSU had an Olinemen go down. I don't know if he is gonna play against us but it really doesn't matter. The biggest mismatch is their OL versus our DLine. I think Lewerky throws a few picks when he is under duress.

I don't see how they are gonna be able to run the ball. Their OL couldn't get push against Indiana.

MSU has a very good front 7 but their secondary is weak. This is where we can exploit them. Donovan Hale WR from Indiana looked like Jerry Rice versus their secondary.

I don't see where they are gonna get points from. Maybe they will get a non offensive TD or two but IMO their max offensive output will be 14...that's being generous.

I see a 42-7 or 49-7 type of game. I think their offense is mediocre and Online is bad. They have no running game. The only way this game is even remotely close is if we turn the ball over alot.

Buckeyes Roll 49-7
 
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