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Opponents total D rank and our performance against them

Jaxbuck

I hate tsun
‘18 Fantasy Baseball Champ
Site Supporter: VIP
Take a look at where our opponents rank YTD in Total D and see what you think. Total D only covers total ypg so its not the end all be all stat but I think it shows someinteresting things none the less.

Opponent NCCAA rank in total D......OSU's offensive output in total yds.
#2 NCSU...137 yds
#3 Wisky...224 yds
#10 Iowa...177 yds
#12 PSU...202 yds
#15 MU...403 yds
#17scUM...tbd
#29 OSU...point of reference
#30 PU...tbd
#48 UC...462 yds
#61 MSU...307 yds
#70 NU...308 yds
#102 IU...443 yds

so against the good teams (1-15) we average 229 ypg.
against the bad teams (48-102) we average 380 ypg.

I was slightly more optimistic after the MSU game myself but seeing this kinda just dampened it. I didn't realize MSU's D was rated that low.

On the positive side neither of our remaing two opponents are as tough as half the teams we have played this year.

I'll probably regret saying it but running the table is not completely out of the question to me now. Purdue will tell a lot.
 
Great point. I'm not disappointed with our performance in East Lansing. That is a tough venue to win at--4th in the Big Ten as far as winning percentage goes (behind Happy Valley, scUM, and the shoe). We also have a very banged up team. We can run the table, lets hope the players believe.
 
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Purdue will get a huge boost if Orton can play...if not, we need to add to their misery by getting out of the blocks quickly. That team is beaten up mentally and physically...if we let them hang around, it could go either way.
 
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man....if i were going to set the spread i would set it at tosu -1....

however; i see vegas putting it at -2.5 for purdue.....

just a guess....first spreads come out tomorrow.....
 
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Spreads are so crooked out here. They release an opening spread and then change it based on betting trends. The majority of the time these spreads are meant to dupe gamblers into thinking they've got a lock. Don't be surprised if we're favored with Orton out.
 
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jnf....i think vegas will see purdue losing at iowa by less than ohio state and keep the boilers as a favorite....


it i were to set the betting from an action standpoint i would put purdont -2.5....

the end result will be that the line slides to something around .5 at gametime....
 
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It really is hard to say. It boils down to which trends they weight more heavily. For me, Ohio State at -3.5. But, I'm biased and consider streaks to be a key factor. Ohio State is up 3 while Purdue is down 4. They have had a meltdown and that trend--especially with the complete psychological toll its had on Orton--isn't nixed easily.
 
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your saying tosu is going to go off at -3.5.....on the road....against a team that played iowa tight..at iowa without their best player....no friggin way.....an iowa team that blew out tosu....

no way is tosu favored in this game...period....
 
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Here is the opponents offensive rank and yards they gained on us (R-P-T). Discouraging thing is that 3 of 5 games where we held opponent under 300 yards were the first three games. The other two were against Indiana (#93) and PSU (#100). Also discouraging is that the two remaining opponents are among the top five on our schedule.

15 MSU 145-262-407
23 Purdue
30 UC 76-162-238
32 Northwestern 166-278-444
47 Michigan
64 NC State 157-99-256
80 Wisconsin 184-160-344
93 Indiana 53-189-242
98 Marshall 150-140-290
99 Iowa 117-331-448
100 Penn State 177-69-246
109 Ohio State
 
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On defense the only stat that means shit is PPG. We had 2-3 key players injured or playing at 80-90% against MSU. I think we are making strides. Another thing to consider is that they have a hell of a kicker. 2 of his FG's are either punts or misses by any other kicker in the B10. Michigan and Purdue better be able to punt and kick as well as MSU's kickers or we will burn them on ST.
 
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I'm not saying Vegas will do that, I know better than that. That is what I'm predicting, us winning by at least 4. The same Iowa team that blew us out could get first downs. The drive logs say it all--both teams looked like trash.

Purdue

Punt
FG Miss
Fumble
Punt
Punt Fumble
TD
Punt
Punt
FG Miss
TD
Punt
Int
Int
Fumble
TD

Iowa

TD
FG
Punt
Punt
Fumble
Punt
FG Miss
Int
Punt
FG
Punt
FG
FG Miss
FG Miss
 
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agreed.....i would think tosu should be favored....but i just checked the odds for my weeks prediction blog and its purdue -4.....more than a full point more than i thought....
 
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