Posted: Wednesday March 14, 2012
Ben Reiter>INSIDE BASEBALL
Padres' Luebke leads group of potential breakout pitching stars
Cory Luebke was just as good as a starter as he was as a reliever in 2011.
AP
The tiny town of Maria Stein, Ohio, which is situated near the Indiana border, a two-hour drive northwest from Columbus, undoubtedly has many things to recommend it. For example, a former citizen is credited as the inventor of the world's first mechanized manure spreader. One thing that Maria Stein does not have is a temperate climate -- and that, as it does for many pitchers who do not grow up in the warmer, year-round baseball meccas, might have slowed the development of the man who might already be Maria Stein's second most famous native, the Padres lefthander Cory Luebke.
Luebke attended Ohio State, and then, after being drafted 63rd overall in 2007, spent most of his first four pro seasons in the minors. He is already 27, and has just one full year in the majors on his resume. Still, his accomplishments during his rookie year, as long in the making as it was, suggest that he might be one of baseball's best candidates to break out as a star in 2012, and even a staff's ace. "He was kind of a late bloomer, with the cold weather background," says Padres GM Josh Byrnes. "We think there's even more in there. We think what he did in 2011, he's going to build off of that."
Luebke spent the first three months of last season pitching effectively out of the bullpen, but what really opened eyes was what happened to his numbers after being given the more arduous task of starting. What happened was: they didn't change. His ERA was 3.23 in his 29 relief appearances, and 3.23 in his 17 starts. His WHIP was 1.000 as a reliever, and 1.093 as a starter. He struck out 9.9 batters per nine innings in both roles, a rate better than that of Clayton Kershaw (9.6). His numbers were not a Petco Park-created illusion, either. He pitched better in virtually every statistical way in his 23 appearances on the road than in his 23 appearances at Petco -- including ERA (4.04 at home, 2.55 away) and OPS allowed (.647 at home, .569 away).
Perhaps even more impressive is that Luebke accomplished all this with an arsenal consisting of essentially two pitches, a fastball and a slider, one or the other of which he threw more than 90 percent of the time. "I think the coaching staff talked me into moving my fastball around a little more," Luebke says, explaining his results. "I used to stay in a lot more, but I learned how to throw it down and away a little better." This year, Luebke intends to develop "something a little softer," in Byrnes' words -- namely, a reliable change-up. "Something I can use to get some outs early in the count once in awhile," Luebke says.
The addition of a change-up to his repertoire would only deepen Luebke's resemblance to Cole Hamels -- himself a San Diegan -- whom Luebke views as something of a model. "If he's on TV, I kind of get locked in on it," Luebke says. "It's hard for me to get away from the TV. He pitches aggressively with his fastball and he's got that good change, which I'm looking to establish."
Hamels, though a six-year veteran, is just 15 months older than Luebke. Both are lefthanded, both can throw mid-90s fastballs, and both are tall and lanky. Hamels is listed at 6'3" and 195 pounds, Luebke at 6'4" and 205. "Little different type of a delivery, but both lefthanded and, you know, good stuff," says Padres manager Bud Black. "That's a great model to look at for him."
"They're not just lefties that throw junk," says one scout. "They're guys whose fastballs sit in the low 90s, with good breaking pitches. I think Luebke's going to be a real good pitcher."
In the end, Luebke's long developmental curve might prove a blessing for the Padres, as he is now poised to be the long-term, team-controlled anchor of a rotation that should soon run deep, due to the impending arrivals of top prospects Casey Kelly, Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland. (Byrnes says Wieland might reach the majors first.)
Marie Stein, Ohio, will likely never become as well known as French Lick, Ind., another small midwestern town put on the sports map by one if its native sons, and on the West Coast, the soft-spoken Luebke says, "I haven't run into anybody who's heard of it." Still, if Luebke comes through on his considerable promise, that might soon change. In San Diego, anyway.