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Preseason and Regular Season Polls (2016)

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If you go 12-1 with a conference title you have a seriously good chance of making the playoff. Regardless of who that loss is to.

In fact, every time a team from a Power 5 conference went at least 12-1 with a conference title before bowl season, that team made the playoff.

2014: Bama, Oregon, FSU, OSU
2015*: Clemson, Bama, MSU

*Oklahoma made the playoff going 11-1 with a conference title (no title game).

The blue print has been made pretty clear the last couple years. You almost have to win your conference. If you lose more than one game, though, your chances are fairly slim.

Of course, Notre Dame and Houston can screw a lot of things up this year...
 
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Please note that I did not say it would be IMPOSSIBLE for the bucks to lose to Oklahoma and still make the playoffs, only that it would be a tough climb back.

Frankly, I like the bucks chances in Soonerville. My concern is that they may put too much effort and emotion into repaying Sparty and lose sight of making sure Hairball does not get to the CCG.

Name me another conference that would schedule the top three contenders into the final two games of the season?
 
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ORD_Buckeye said:
Can you imagine the BWI conspiracy theories if they had our schedule this year. Corn AND Cheese cross-divisional and then top 2 division rivals back-to-back
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You are not seeing this for what it is. This scheduling for Ohio State is OBVIOUSLY a plot to keep Penn State from the CCG. Just look at all of the FAX that are on the interwebs. If you are having a hard time accepting the EVIDENTS allow me to point you in the right direction B======D---> https://bwi.forums.rivals.com/
 
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ORD_Buckeye said:
I don't know about that. We'd need help though. Either Cheese or Corn would need to win the West after losing to us and Sparty and UM would need to have huge seasons, so that we'd finish up with two marquee wins.
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I think if our sole loss is in Norman and it's a close loss, there's no way we'd be kept out of the playoffs being 12-1 and B1G champs. We'll have played three of the top eleven teams in the coaches poll (not sure how the AP will rank Sparty and scUM to start the season), and maybe one more depending on how good the Western Division champ is going into the CCG.
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
I think if our sole loss is in Norman and it's a close loss, there's no way we'd be kept out of the playoffs being 12-1 and B1G champs. We'll have played three of the top eleven teams in the coaches poll (not sure how the AP will rank Sparty and scUM to start the season), and maybe one more depending on how good the Western Division champ is going into the CCG.
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IMO - a One loss B1G champ will never miss out on the playoffs. Too much tradition.
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
I think if our sole loss is in Norman and it's a close loss, there's no way we'd be kept out of the playoffs being 12-1 and B1G champs. We'll have played three of the top eleven teams in the coaches poll (not sure how the AP will rank Sparty and scUM to start the season), and maybe one more depending on how good the Western Division champ is going into the CCG.
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They have no problem sending 'Bamer with one loss, so why not? (Esp. if OK continues to perform well the rest of the season.)
 
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The over-rated and under-rated in the pre-season polls get to their proper place by December - with the exception being that the SEC champ (Alabama in particular) gets more grace than any other conference champion. But most years you will have 5 or 6 teams competing for 4 spots - maybe as many as 8 with an argument. But since the decision rests with the committee rather than the polls, I don't care about pre-season polls, but it is something to talk about. The last regular season polls basically function to tell us who the contenders for the CFBP are.

I'd like to see Ohio State start where Sparty is - 11 or so. It helps with the "chip on the shoulder/something to prove" thing.

As for the potential loss at Oklahoma, if they can lose to VT at home and win a national championship, they can lose to OU in Norman and still make the playoff.
 
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OSUK said:
I'd like to see Ohio State start where Sparty is - 11 or so. It helps with the "chip on the shoulder/something to prove" thing.
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Not picking on you in particular, but I fail to see why people keep harping on "chip on their shoulder" and "starting lower provides more motivation". It really doesn't provide much more motivation, and starting lower mean even more ground to make up if you lose. The reason why last year's teams seemed so lackadaisical for much of the season was not because they were ranked #1 out of the gate, but rather they have had just achieved their goal of winning a national title the previous season. Had they not been coming off a national title and yet still were the consensus pre-season #1, they would not have been lackadaisical by any stretch.

This year's team is hungry because they feel they were left out last year, and starting them any lower than where they are now won't make them any more motivated.
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
Not picking on you in particular, but I fail to see why people keep harping on "chip on their shoulder" and "starting lower provides more motivation". It really doesn't provide much more motivation, and starting lower mean even more ground to make up if you lose. The reason why last year's teams seemed so lackadaisical for much of the season was not because they were ranked #1 out of the gate, but rather they have had just achieved their goal of winning a national title the previous season. Had they not been coming off a national title and yet still were the consensus pre-season #1, they would not have been lackadaisical by any stretch.

This year's team is hungry because they feel they were left out last year, and starting them any lower than where they are now won't make them any more motivated.
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The psychology is totally different if you are being given respect than if you aren't. My sense is that it is harder to start on top and stay on top than it is to climb to the top. Most coaches I know at all kinds of levels don't want to deal with the issues that come with a high level of respect and praise. They would rather tell their team that no one thinks they are very good, and challenge them to prove people wrong.

Sparty has lived off the disrespect thing since Dantonio went up there. Sparty has beat Ohio State 2 out of the last 3 times they have played. They weren't more talented, didn't have better coaches, or didn't out-work the Bucks to accomplish that. Most people would put it in the category of "who wants it" or "find a way" - which goes toward motivation and mindset.

Urban has often said he wants an angry team. Angry about what? Disrespect (real or perceived) is something that gets most guys there.

But I don't have any objective data that proves that a team that relies on talent and preparation is more successful than one that is running on anger from being disrespected. But I do think it's pretty well understood that high regard, praise, and respect feeds complacency while injustice, disrespect, criticism, etc. are powerful performance motivators.

Last year proved to us that talent isn't enough. The elements of hard work and preparation are essentials to success - obviously. But when you get two teams that deserve to be on the field together, the deciding factor appears to be the more subjective ideas of chemistry, mindset, and motivation - and that appears easier for coaches to get right starting from a low place rather than a high one. FWIW
 
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OSUK said:
The psychology is totally different if you are being given respect than if you aren't. My sense is that it is harder to start on top and stay on top than it is to climb to the top. Most coaches I know at all kinds of levels don't want to deal with the issues that come with a high level of respect and praise. They would rather tell their team that no one thinks they are very good, and challenge them to prove people wrong.
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Being ranked say, 11 vice 5, isn't "disrespect", and this batch of players won't get more fired up over 5-6 spots in the initial rankings. Even Meyer senses something different with the team this year over last. It's not because where they're ranked in the pre-season, but rather what could--or in their minds, should--have been. I really don't see them playing harder starting at than they would starting at 11...
 
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