Highstreet
Heisman
1. Edwin Encarnacion - 3B - Age 22 - ETA: April 2006
Now that the Reds have Joe Randa and Ryan Freel to back him up, there’s little chance that Encarnacion will be rushed. The 2000 ninth-round pick of the Rangers has made steady progress over the last three years, but he’s not ready yet. Defensively, he has all the tools yet still lacks polish. On offense, he shows a quick bat and he doesn’t chase bad pitches. He probably won’t hit for a high enough average to be an All-Star, but he will develop 25-homer power and become an above average regular. He should receive a September callup and earn a starting job next year.
2. Homer Bailey - RHP - Age 18 - ETA: 2008
Bailey, a power right-hander from Texas, was the second high school pitcher chosen in the 2004 draft, going seventh overall. A mid-90s fastball and a plus curve allowed him to finish his final season in high school with a 0.39 ERA and a 168/10 K/BB ratio in 72 innings. He may not continue to fan more than two batters an inning as a pro, but he has No. 2-starter ability.
3. Richie Gardner - RHP - Age 23 - ETA: Sept. 2005
Gardner’s rise in 2004 closely resembled Bobby Basham’s from 2002. Basham had a 97/7 K/BB ratio in 88 innings a year after being a seventh-round pick to become the Reds’ No. 2 prospect. Gardner was a sixth-round pick out of the University of Arizona in 2003. He signed too late to pitch that season, but he was the Reds’ minor league player of the year in 2004. He features a low-90s sinking fastball, a plus changeup and an average curveball. If he can avoid the arm troubles that have set Basham back, he could be a third starter.
4. Joey Votto - 1B - Age 21 - ETA: 2007
Votto was drafted as a catcher in 2002, but he’s now viewed strictly as a first baseman and not a particularly good one defensively. Still, his bat should get him to Cincinnati and make him a regular. Votto hits for average, shows 25-homer power and has walked 201 times in 1,085 at-bats as a professional. Sean Casey’s contract expires after 2006, giving Votto two more years to get ready for the majors.
5. Thomas Pauly - RHP - Age 23 - ETA: Aug. 2006
Gardner’s performance received the attention, but Pauly was nearly as good, striking out more than five Carolina League batters for every one he walked. A reliever at Princeton, Pauly works at 91-94 mph and uses a slider as his out pitch. He still needs to pick up a change in order to make it as a starter, but he has just as much upside as Gardner.
6. B.J. Szymanski - OF - Age 22 - ETA: 2008
A wide receiver and center fielder at Princeton, Szymanski, a 2004 second-round pick, is something of a project. His tools give him star potential, but he doesn’t figure to move quickly and he’s already had one injury slow his progress, as his pro debut was cut short by a strained quad. It’ll probably be another year or two before he begins to put up numbers worth getting excited about.
7. Todd Coffey - RHP - Age 24 - June 2005
The Reds’ top six is easy. The rest of the list could easily be swapped out with another group of four from the 11 prospects I was considering. When in doubt, I tend to go with players closer to the majors, so Coffey gets the seventh spot.
It’s a splitter that’s turned Coffey from an organizational pitcher into a legitimate relief prospect. The 1998 41st-round pick throws in the low-90s and has exceptional command, so there’s no reason to believe he’s incapable of having a career as a setup man. The Reds might not carry him at the start of the season after picking up David Weathers and Ben Weber over the winter, but he’ll have a home in the pen before the All-Star break.
8. William Bergolla - 2B - Age 22 - ETA: 2007
After a year off, Bergolla has moved back into the top 10 by raising his average from .272 to .283 and showing a better walk rate in his first season in Double-A. His numbers from last year closely resemble his career totals since he was signed out of Venezuela in Nov. 1999, but considering that he’s always been young for his leagues, he hasn’t performed badly. Bergolla promises to be a very good defensive second baseman and he can handle shortstop if needed. After two seasons in Triple-A, he might have the bat to be a regular. If not, he’ll be a quality utilityman.
9. Phil Dumatrait - LHP - Age 23 - ETA: 2007
What would a Reds’ prospect list be without a rehabbing pitcher? I’m giving Dumatrait the nod here over 2002 first-round pick Chris Gruler and former Rangers prospect Ben Kozlowski. Dumatrait, who was acquired from the Red Sox in the Scott Williamson deal at the deadline in 2003, missed last season following Tommy John surgery. He went 11-6 with a 3.11 ERA, 110 H and 106/73 K/BB in 142 IP between two high Single-A teams in 2003. Command has been a problem and likely will continue to be, but he has the fastball-curveball combination to develop into a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
10. Chris Dickerson - OF - Age 22 - ETA: 2008
Dickerson is still raw, but he’s a fine athlete with a good idea of what he’s doing at the plate. The power seems certain to come given his build, and the 2003 16th-round pick has the speed to cover center field. He’s a real sleeper.
2004 top 10: Brandon Claussen, Ryan Wagner, Dustin Moseley, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Howington, Phil Dumatrait, Matt Belisle, Stephen Smitherman, Joey Votto, Joe Valentine
2003 top 10: Dustin Moseley, Bobby Basham, Ty Howington, Wily Mo Pena, Brandon Larson, Chris Gruler, Edwin Encarnacion, Luke Hudson, Josh Hall, William Bergolla
Now that the Reds have Joe Randa and Ryan Freel to back him up, there’s little chance that Encarnacion will be rushed. The 2000 ninth-round pick of the Rangers has made steady progress over the last three years, but he’s not ready yet. Defensively, he has all the tools yet still lacks polish. On offense, he shows a quick bat and he doesn’t chase bad pitches. He probably won’t hit for a high enough average to be an All-Star, but he will develop 25-homer power and become an above average regular. He should receive a September callup and earn a starting job next year.
2. Homer Bailey - RHP - Age 18 - ETA: 2008
Bailey, a power right-hander from Texas, was the second high school pitcher chosen in the 2004 draft, going seventh overall. A mid-90s fastball and a plus curve allowed him to finish his final season in high school with a 0.39 ERA and a 168/10 K/BB ratio in 72 innings. He may not continue to fan more than two batters an inning as a pro, but he has No. 2-starter ability.
3. Richie Gardner - RHP - Age 23 - ETA: Sept. 2005
Gardner’s rise in 2004 closely resembled Bobby Basham’s from 2002. Basham had a 97/7 K/BB ratio in 88 innings a year after being a seventh-round pick to become the Reds’ No. 2 prospect. Gardner was a sixth-round pick out of the University of Arizona in 2003. He signed too late to pitch that season, but he was the Reds’ minor league player of the year in 2004. He features a low-90s sinking fastball, a plus changeup and an average curveball. If he can avoid the arm troubles that have set Basham back, he could be a third starter.
4. Joey Votto - 1B - Age 21 - ETA: 2007
Votto was drafted as a catcher in 2002, but he’s now viewed strictly as a first baseman and not a particularly good one defensively. Still, his bat should get him to Cincinnati and make him a regular. Votto hits for average, shows 25-homer power and has walked 201 times in 1,085 at-bats as a professional. Sean Casey’s contract expires after 2006, giving Votto two more years to get ready for the majors.
5. Thomas Pauly - RHP - Age 23 - ETA: Aug. 2006
Gardner’s performance received the attention, but Pauly was nearly as good, striking out more than five Carolina League batters for every one he walked. A reliever at Princeton, Pauly works at 91-94 mph and uses a slider as his out pitch. He still needs to pick up a change in order to make it as a starter, but he has just as much upside as Gardner.
6. B.J. Szymanski - OF - Age 22 - ETA: 2008
A wide receiver and center fielder at Princeton, Szymanski, a 2004 second-round pick, is something of a project. His tools give him star potential, but he doesn’t figure to move quickly and he’s already had one injury slow his progress, as his pro debut was cut short by a strained quad. It’ll probably be another year or two before he begins to put up numbers worth getting excited about.
7. Todd Coffey - RHP - Age 24 - June 2005
The Reds’ top six is easy. The rest of the list could easily be swapped out with another group of four from the 11 prospects I was considering. When in doubt, I tend to go with players closer to the majors, so Coffey gets the seventh spot.
It’s a splitter that’s turned Coffey from an organizational pitcher into a legitimate relief prospect. The 1998 41st-round pick throws in the low-90s and has exceptional command, so there’s no reason to believe he’s incapable of having a career as a setup man. The Reds might not carry him at the start of the season after picking up David Weathers and Ben Weber over the winter, but he’ll have a home in the pen before the All-Star break.
8. William Bergolla - 2B - Age 22 - ETA: 2007
After a year off, Bergolla has moved back into the top 10 by raising his average from .272 to .283 and showing a better walk rate in his first season in Double-A. His numbers from last year closely resemble his career totals since he was signed out of Venezuela in Nov. 1999, but considering that he’s always been young for his leagues, he hasn’t performed badly. Bergolla promises to be a very good defensive second baseman and he can handle shortstop if needed. After two seasons in Triple-A, he might have the bat to be a regular. If not, he’ll be a quality utilityman.
9. Phil Dumatrait - LHP - Age 23 - ETA: 2007
What would a Reds’ prospect list be without a rehabbing pitcher? I’m giving Dumatrait the nod here over 2002 first-round pick Chris Gruler and former Rangers prospect Ben Kozlowski. Dumatrait, who was acquired from the Red Sox in the Scott Williamson deal at the deadline in 2003, missed last season following Tommy John surgery. He went 11-6 with a 3.11 ERA, 110 H and 106/73 K/BB in 142 IP between two high Single-A teams in 2003. Command has been a problem and likely will continue to be, but he has the fastball-curveball combination to develop into a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
10. Chris Dickerson - OF - Age 22 - ETA: 2008
Dickerson is still raw, but he’s a fine athlete with a good idea of what he’s doing at the plate. The power seems certain to come given his build, and the 2003 16th-round pick has the speed to cover center field. He’s a real sleeper.
2004 top 10: Brandon Claussen, Ryan Wagner, Dustin Moseley, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Howington, Phil Dumatrait, Matt Belisle, Stephen Smitherman, Joey Votto, Joe Valentine
2003 top 10: Dustin Moseley, Bobby Basham, Ty Howington, Wily Mo Pena, Brandon Larson, Chris Gruler, Edwin Encarnacion, Luke Hudson, Josh Hall, William Bergolla
