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DaytonBuck

I've always liked them
CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS

1 ATLANTIC COAST = 85.62 84.64 ( 1) 11
2 SOUTHEASTERN = 82.56 82.61 ( 2) 12
3 BIG EAST = 81.10 81.05 ( 4) 12
4 BIG TEN = 80.67 81.09 ( 3) 11
5 BIG 12 = 80.48 80.64 ( 5) 12
6 PACIFIC-10 = 79.53 79.64 ( 6) 10
7 CONFERENCE USA = 79.10 79.18 ( 7) 14
8 MISSOURI VALLEY = 78.51 78.90 ( 8) 10
9 WEST COAST = 77.46 77.05 ( 12) 8
10 WESTERN ATHLETIC = 77.44 77.70 ( 9) 10

4 BIG TEN = 80.67 81.09 ( 3) TEAMS= 11
College Basketball 2004-2005 Div I games only thru Thursday, December 2, 2004
HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.50 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |

2 Illinois = 92.74 5 0 74.29( 177) 0 0 | 1 0 |
15 Iowa = 87.05 4 1 81.17( 32) 0 1 | 2 1 |
19 Wisconsin = 86.32 3 1 79.22( 60) 1 0 | 1 0 |
26 Michigan State = 85.33 3 1 74.88( 158) 0 1 | 0 1 |
60 Ohio State = 81.31 5 2 73.52( 194) 0 0 | 0 1 |
79 Purdue = 80.04 1 3 83.44( 12) 0 0 | 0 2 |
99 Michigan = 78.32 3 3 77.45( 95) 0 1 | 0 2 |
105 Indiana = 77.89 2 1 74.04( 185) 0 1 | 0 1 |
154 Northwestern = 74.95 1 4 79.21( 62) 0 1 | 0 1 |
170 Minnesota = 74.05 2 3 73.41( 197) 0 0 | 0 0 |
171 Penn State = 74.05 4 2 71.13( 270) 0 0 | 0 0


22 Creighton
68 Clemson
145 Chattanooga
181 Houston
193 Delaware
228 Robert Morris
286 Towson
Link
 
Other non-conference games left...

217 Portland State
48 Texas Tech
288 Morehead State
158 Mercer
247 New Hampshire
24 St. Joe's
82 LSU

9 out of 14 non-conference games against teams ranked less than 100, giving us a schedule-strength of 194.

Taking the remaining games against teams ranked lower than 100 and assuming victory gives us 16 wins.

With that low of a schedule strength we're gonna need to win more than just a couple of the other games to make the tourney (20 at the minimum with a couple good wins), but seems like the NIT is the very worst that could happen.
 
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the computer models (Sagarin, RPI, etc) are all pretty wild early in the season. Around about the 10th game is when things start to become bigger than a win or loss against a single opponent, ie Saint Joe's is riding off their game against Kansas to get that high of a ranking.
 
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Sagrin is a nice tool for predicting who will win a game, but I prefer www.collegerpi.com. It is very close to the actual RPI used by the NCAA selection committee. Note, the RPI is not posted this early in the season.

I don't think 10 games into the season is enough either. You may or may not have played anyone at that point, had injuries or other issues. Since your strength of schedule is largely determined by your conference games, I would wait until 1/2 way, or at least 1/3 of the way into the conference season to really pay attention to these rankings.
 
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