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Scenarios for Final CFP Playoff Rankings

Discussion in 'College Football' started by BB73, Oct 28, 2019.

  1. BB73

    BB73 Loves Buckeye History Staff Member Bookie '16 & '17 Upset Contest Winner

    Ok, this attempts to predict how the committee will rank teams at the end of the year. It does NOT try to predict the outcomes of the remaining games or which scenarios will actually occur. But if you have a scenario in mind that includes all the results, scrolling from top down until you find teams that match your results will find what I'm guessing will be the 4 seeds, in order.

    I had to avoid scenarios which are extremely unlikely, like LSU beating Bama but losing to both Ole Miss and aTm, or tOSU beating Penn State but losing 2 other regular season games; in order to keep from having a huge number of possible outcomes.

    NOTE - most scenarios cannot co-exist, so the first 9 teams listed are believed to control their own destiny. And if I'm correct, number 10 (heaven forbid) would result in a Buckeye playoff appearance since only the SEC Champ, Clemson, and Baylor could be above tOSU in that scenario.

    #01. LSU undefeated thru CCG
    #02. tOSU undefeated thru CCG
    #03. Bama undefeated thru CCG
    #04. Penn St undefeated thru CCG (I think they'd jump Clemson)
    #05. Clemson undefeated thru CCG
    #06. Minnesota undefeated thru CCG (very unlikely, but they'd be in)
    #07. Baylor undefeated thru CCG (same as Minn)
    #08. Florida wins out thru CCG, has 1 loss to LSU
    #09. Georgia wins out thru CCG, has 1 loss to USCe
    #10. tOSU 1-loss to TTUN, wins CCG over Minn/Wiscy
    #11. LSU 1-loss to Fla/UGA in CCG (non-champion)
    #12. Bama 1-loss to Fla/UGA in CCG (non-champion)
    #13. LSU 1-loss to Bama, no CCG appearance
    #14. tOSU 1-loss to Penn St, no CCG appearance
    #15. Bama 1-loss to LSU, no CCG appearance
    #16. Oregon wins out thru CCG, 1-loss vs Auburn
    #17. tOSU 1-loss in CCG to Minn/Wiscy
    #18. Oklahoma wins out, CCG is second win over Baylor
    #19. Utah beats Oregon in CCG, 1-loss at USC
    #20. Penn St 1-loss at tOSU, no CCG appearance
    #21. Florida 2-loss SEC Champ, loses to UGA, but UGA loses 2 of Auburn/Mizzou/aTm
    #22. Minnesota 1-loss B1G Champ
    #23. Baylor 1-loss Big12 Champ
    #24. Penn St 1-loss in CCG

    So the Pac12 champ needs help, and any team not winning it's CCG needs help, except for #10 (again, heaven forbid).
     
    calibuck, LitlBuck, cincibuck and 2 others like this.
  2. Jaxbuck

    Jaxbuck I hate tsun ‘18 Fantasy Baseball Champ


    Fuck them sideways but I think #20 is a bit too low (if I am following).

    I think a 1 loss OSU/PSU loser should absolutely be in the conversation for the 4th spot assuming the PAC 12 doesn't produce a 1 loss champ.
     
    LitlBuck and BB73 like this.
  3. BB73

    BB73 Loves Buckeye History Staff Member Bookie '16 & '17 Upset Contest Winner

    Yeah, 18-19-20 are very close, I only gave Utah the edge there since that could be about a #6-#7 matchup if Oregon and Utah both make it to their CCG without losing again. They would get some juice from beating a 1-loss Oregon that late, and they'd have a conference title, which is supposed to carry some weight (yeah, I know). You're also assuming tOSU would win the CCG, and thus be top-2. If, heaven forbid again, tOSU loses in Indy, that would hurt Penn St.
     
    brodybuck21 and Jaxbuck like this.
  4. Jaxbuck

    Jaxbuck I hate tsun ‘18 Fantasy Baseball Champ

    OSUs biggest risk of loss is before the CCG.

    West champs hold no horrors for this team.
     
  5. DZ83CK

    DZ83CK Not Banned

    Maybe the most intriguing possibility is Bama losing to LSU (with or without Tua). That one loss would be a double blow to Bama's playoff chances as they would potentially have a very thin resume with only a win vs Auburn (assuming they get it) and a lot of fluff wins. If you get Clemson, OSU and LSU in, then the logical next team would be a 1-loss Oklahoma possibly, then maybe Alabama 5th.
     
    LitlBuck, brodybuck21 and BB73 like this.
  6. kujirakira

    kujirakira Senior

    If they can in any way hang it on "Tua not 100%", theyll be first in line of the 1losses.
    See 17... cupcake schedule, lost to only team they played... got in.
     
    woofermazing and Palpie like this.
  7. BB73

    BB73 Loves Buckeye History Staff Member Bookie '16 & '17 Upset Contest Winner

    I have the situation where Bama loses to LSU and beats Auburn favoring Bama over Oklahoma or the Pac12 Champ.
    Bama will have won at Auburn, who beat Oregon on a 'neutral' field. And if Bama's loss is to an LSU team that wins the SEC and would probably be the 1 seed, their loss is better than Oregon's, Utah's, or Oklahoma's. It's true than their only solid win would be at Auburn, but I think they'd get the nod. As kujirakira said, there's the Tua injury excuse also.

    I mean, who wouldn't want to see Bama get a crack at a third Natty this decade in years where they didn't even win their division?

    If they get in over a 1-loss Oregon, who played 9 conference games plus Auburn, while Bama played 8 conference games plus Duke; that could create real momentum to blow up the ESPN Bama Invitational Playoff.
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2019
  8. Palpie

    Palpie Senior

    If bama was in under those circumstances I'd boycott watching even if osu is in. Low ratings and lost revenue is the only thing espn and their Disney overlords understand.
     
    MGMT likes this.
  9. BB73

    BB73 Loves Buckeye History Staff Member Bookie '16 & '17 Upset Contest Winner

    Another intriguing scenario is where Bama loses to Auburn and to LSU, who wins out, meaning only 1 SEC team has fewer than 2 losses. Then it's likely a beauty contest among a 1-loss Pac12 Champ, a 1-loss Big12 Champ, and the tOSU/Penn St loser (assuming Minnesota doesn't win the CCG).

    If Bama has 1 loss to LSU, and tOSU has 1 loss to Penn State, it could be another very close choice between those 2 for the number 4 seed once again. I think the Buckeyes would have the edge in that scenario.
     
  10. DZ83CK

    DZ83CK Not Banned

    It is hard to create a better example for Bama being left out than them being a 1-loss non-divisional champ and there being a fellow 1-loss team vying for the 4th spot who is a P5 conference champ. Counting losses is a huge deal to the committee, so certainly having fewer losses will give them an excuse to pick a 1-loss Bama vs any 2-loss team. IMO their resume will be too thin in terms of quality wins to make it this year if they lose one and dont make the SEC title game, AND there is a 1-loss champ in the B12 or P12 (assuming OSU, Clemson & another SEC team are the top-3).
     
  11. BB73

    BB73 Loves Buckeye History Staff Member Bookie '16 & '17 Upset Contest Winner

    I have created a vBet for the way the top-3 look when the initial Playoff Rankings are released, which will be between the Duke-Kansas and Sparty-Kentucky basketball games on ESPN next Tuesday, Nov. 5th.

    Since 4 of the top 5 teams have a bye, and Clemson plays Wofford, I don't believe anything that happens this weekend will affect the rankings, so I created odds for how the 1-2-3 will look next Tuesday night, and the vBet is now open.

    2-1 for LSU-tOSU-Bama
    2-1 for tOSU-LSU-Bama
    5-1 for LSU-Bama-tOSU
    9-1 for Bama-LSU-tOSU
    19-1 for Bama-tOSU-LSU
    19-1 for tOSU-Bama-LSU
    9-1 for anything else, meaning one of those teams is not in the top-3

    So if you believe that the Committee will make tOSU #3 in order to hype the SEC battle on Nov. 9th as a 1-vs-2 showdown, you can make some vCash. If you're convinced that a certain team will be #1, or a certain team will be #3, you can make some vCash. If you believe Clemson or Penn St will make the top-3, you can win 9-1.

    These odds are mine alone, none of this is from Vegas or ESPN.
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2019
    LitlBuck and MGMT like this.
  12. MGMT

    MGMT Junior

    Look your family in the eye and say you lost the 79.99. I dare you.
     
  13. Jaxbuck

    Jaxbuck I hate tsun ‘18 Fantasy Baseball Champ

    It'd be easier to just tell them I drank the dole again.
     
    MGMT likes this.
  14. ORD_Buckeye

    ORD_Buckeye Wrong glass, Sir.

    Clemson wins out.
    LSU beats Bama with Tua on the bench
    Georgia beats LSU in overtime of SECCG

    Clemson-LSU
    Georgia-Bama

    BOOM
     
    Palpie and LovelandBuckeye like this.
  15. MililaniBuckeye

    MililaniBuckeye The satanic soulless freight train that is Ohio St Staff Member Tech Admin

    I can hear the fapping in Bristol right now all the way from Oahu...
     

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