Scenarios for Final CFP Playoff Rankings

[Jaxbuck]

Assuming the top 3 remain unbeaten, Sooners win out and Oregon wins the PAC then it’s basically Bama, Sooners or Ducks for the 4th spot.

This is highly probable to me.

If that’s the case I have a hard time seeing which of the 3 gets it. I really do not think a non conf champ Bama gets it with Tua out. A 2 loss non conf champ GA is out as well. So......Boomer or Ducks?

Committee has already shown us that they think Oregon > Oklahoma. They would also have a win over Utah to pad their lead.

I think in your scenario it's clearly Oregon over Tua-less Bama or OU.

If Utah beats Oregon I think the PAC gets left out again.

 

[Cratylus]

Or Texas A&M

 

[ShowMeBuck]

Committee has already shown us that they think Oregon > Oklahoma. They would also have a win over Utah to pad their lead.

I think in your scenario it's clearly Oregon over Tua-less Bama or OU.

If Utah beats Oregon I think the PAC gets left out again.

Yeah but the committee has only voted twice and OU just had their most impressive win to date knocking off an undefeated Baylor at Waco and coming from way behind to do so. And, they fought back after early turnovers. Now, rightly so, Baylor wasn’t respected much but they were undefeated and I kind of think it shows some resolve of OU to battle back like that and specifically Hurts didn’t let his early struggles hold him back. And defensively they pretty much shut Baylor down in the 2nd half. I hate OU but that was a gutsy comeback and I can see them getting some love for it.

I guess I see a 2 horse race for 4th between OU and UO if there isn’t any upheaval. Style points are getting ready to matter because they have kinda similar resumes and strength of schedules to me but I haven’t exactly checked that data.

Also, EVERYONE wants to play either of these rather than one of the big 3.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Yeah but the committee has only voted twice and OU just had their most impressive win to date knocking off an undefeated Baylor at Waco and coming from way behind to do so. And, they fought back after early turnovers. Now, rightly so, Baylor wasn’t respected much but they were undefeated and I kind of think it shows some resolve of OU to battle back like that and specifically Hurts didn’t let his early struggles hold him back. And defensively they pretty much shut Baylor down in the 2nd half. I hate OU but that was a gutsy comeback and I can see them getting some love for it.

I guess I see a 2 horse race for 4th between OU and UO if there isn’t any upheaval. Style points are getting ready to matter because they have kinda similar resumes and strength of schedules to me but I haven’t exactly checked that data.

Also, EVERYONE wants to play either of these rather than one of the big 3.

We will know more on Tuesday night.

I just don't think the committee is buying what Oklahoma, and the B12, are selling this year. They have had some other close games and a not very impressive loss. From here out they have nothing left on the schedule to help them save for another meeting with Baylor. Oregon still gets Utah.

Who knows?

One other thing for fun, one local casino's odds for NC as we stand right now:

 

[kujirakira]

Remember.. there's 2 members on Committee that have to leave room whenever Oklahoma is discussed.
I dont think they get to vote on Okla? But they definitely arent allowed to steer discussion from outside the room.
One of those is BXII's AD rep. Who would normally be somebody advocating for whoever was leading BXII.

 

[Dryden]

At this point I don’t care. Win out and OSU is in. Focus now is can the MoV be enough to reclaim the 1 seed from LSU and get whichever deeply flawed team at the #4 for the first round.

 

[Jaxbuck]

At this point I don’t care. Win out and OSU is in. Focus now is can the MoV be enough to reclaim the 1 seed from LSU and get whichever deeply flawed team at the #4 for the first round.

or would we rather have the month to prepare for Clemson and get them out in the desert?

Probably going to have to beat them to win it all anyway.

I'd rather have the short week of practice for LSU/OU/Oregon

 

[Systems_id]

or would we rather have the month to prepare for Clemson and get them out in the desert?

Probably going to have to beat them to win it all anyway.

I'd rather have the short week of practice for LSU/OU/Oregon

Man I have absolutely no idea what to make of Clemson right now. The only team approaching "good" they've faced so far is Texas A&M at home, and the Aggies gave Clemson all sorts of fits. Then again a terrible ACC has never stopped Clemson from competing in the CFP so it may not even matter.

 

[Buckeye doc]

If Ga beats LSU in the championship, is it automatic both make it? (assuming no other losses for either) I'd assume

or would we rather have the month to prepare for Clemson and get them out in the desert?

Probably going to have to beat them to win it all anyway.

I'd rather have the short week of practice for LSU/OU/Oregon

Classic double edged sword; when we have a month to prepare, so do dabo and venables.

 

[buckeyemania11]

I think with Tua being done the odds of 2 SEC teams is pretty low.

UGA/LSU both getting in would take some chaos from everyone else.

The Ohio State/Penn State winner losing the B1G title game and OU losing the Big 12 title game would likely both be needed for that to have a shot of happening. (or throw the highly unlikely scenario of Clemson losing in the ACC title game in there)

 

[BB73]

I think with Tua being done the odds of 2 SEC teams is pretty low.

UGA/LSU both getting in would take some chaos from everyone else.

The Ohio State/Penn State winner losing the B1G title game and OU losing the Big 12 title game would likely both be needed for that to have a shot of happening. (or throw the highly unlikely scenario of Clemson losing in the ACC title game in there)

That's not how I see it. I think Georgia controls their own destiny, and if they give LSU their only loss, I can't see LSU ending up below anybody besides tOSU/PSU B1G Champ, Clemson, and Georgia.

If LSU and tOSU both lose their CCGs, it's a beauty contest between them and Oregon and Oklahoma, and I think that last spot becomes a decision between LSU and tOSU, who have separated themselves from the non-Clemson pack.

 

[Greyshirt]

Hard to see OSU and LSU not getting in at this point and Clemson will go undefeated so they are in.

The 4th spot is a complete crap shoot IMO. And as we have seen in years past things can change quickly and take very odd turns at the end of seasons.

I think if OKLA runs the table they get in as Big12 Champs and the top 1 loss team.

I do not see the logic of taking a 1 loss Bama team over a 1 loss Conference Champ.

And I guess if Oregon puts up some huge numbers

 

[AuTX Buckeye]

Hard to see OSU and LSU not getting in at this point and Clemson will go undefeated so they are in.

The 4th spot is a complete crap shoot IMO. And as we have seen in years past things can change quickly and take very odd turns at the end of seasons.

I think if OKLA runs the table they get in as Big12 Champs and the top 1 loss team.

I do not see the logic of taking a 1 loss Bama team over a 1 loss Conference Champ.

And I guess if Oregon puts up some huge numbers

i think OU needs utter chaos at the top.. like everyone in front of them dropping at least one more game chaos

 

[Jaxbuck]

With the most recent CFP poll release it's pretty clear that, barring a UGA upset of LSU in the SEC CG, the 4th team is going to be the Oregon/Utah winner.

They are both above OU right now. As long as the ultimate winner doesn't drop another game I think your 4th team is 1 loss PAC 12 champ Oregon.

For a bonus guess that will likely not come true: I think they jigger the final rankings so that the SEC vs ACC teams play in ATL and the B1G vs PAC are out west

 

[Bucklion]

With the most recent CFP poll release it's pretty clear that, barring a UGA upset of LSU in the SEC CG, the 4th team is going to be the Oregon/Utah winner.

They are both above OU right now. As long as the ultimate winner doesn't drop another game I think your 4th team is 1 loss PAC 12 champ Oregon.

For a bonus guess that will likely not come true: I think they jigger the final rankings so that the SEC vs ACC teams play in ATL and the B1G vs PAC are out west

Well there’s no way that 1-loss PAC will be higher than 4, and equally no way that undefeated LSU isn’t 1.