Game Thread Southern Cal 18, at tOSU 15 (Sept 12th, 8 pm, ESPN)

[billmac91]

OK, once again, Vegas sets the line based on getting an equal $ amount bet on each team.
It's what the bettors think will happen, not the bookies.
Vegas is uncannily good at setting an initial line that serves their purpose.

If the $ thinks tOSU will win, then they will be the favorite, not USC.

I agree, however, that there won't be a clear favorite. Very low point spread, probably influenced by each team's initial game.

If tOSU's offense shows a pulse the first game, or even looks somewhat dominant, they could very well be a slight favorite.

You just explained what I said....

If Vegas makes USC a slight favorite, it's because that is where they get the most action. The public thinks Ohio State is weak. A slight favorite for USC would be enticing to a lot of bettors.

IMO, making the Bucks small dogs, even at home to USC, says to me that Vegas thinks the Bucks win.

 

[PatMicMac]

It all comes down to Corso's pick ...

 

[methomps]

wow last minute medical there...



I personally feel Pete is/was upset because he's a little worried about this QB situation. Mustain couldn't hold onto the QB spot at Arkansas of all places, and Corpe isn't in the recent mold of a USC QB. I feel he wanted Sanchez to come back to A) Redshirt Barkley B) He doesn't feel his QB's now can do the job and C) To make up for the lack of people returning on defense.

Mustain losing his starting job as a freshman is not a concern inside the program. Arkansas was a mess in a lot of ways in 2006. Sanchez is the better QB at the moment thanks to his experience in the system, but it doesn't mean that Mustain and Corp are not ready to step up. I think they both are.

I think OSU will be the clear under dog, and personally it should be that way until we win a big game. Do we have a good shot to win? Yeah, we have a GREAT chance to win this game but we shouldn't declare ourselves the favorite IMO.

This is the deal with USC right now. The offense should be awesome, but IMO the defense should struggle. There's no reason that with our dline that we can't neutralize the USC offensive line, and put pressure on a very inexperienced QB. Great running game, and talented recievers but the QB position IMO is what may get us the win if we come out and stop the run.

I kinda think I like SC's oline in this matchup. Byers coming back is huge. This line is up there with the best in the PC era.

I think you might want to add Joe McKnight at 1b at RB, he's pretty good too.

I think SC's offense might be slightly off due to Corp's lack of experience. At least that's what you have to hope for.

Their defense is probably better. They should be quicker at LB, which means less running lanes for smaller backs like Rodgers or Boom. The secondary is very experienced and the DL is loaded with talent.

SC's going to be pretty good.

The defense won't be better, I believe, but it will be a lot better than you might think about a defense losing so many starters. The secondary is especially good with 4 players having significant starting experience and a fifth showing very well late in the season in place of Kevin Ellison.

Taylor Mays coming back is just a gamechanger, especially against Ohio State and Pryor. Mays just takes the deep ball out of the equation for the most part (although his role may change next year...I don't know) and his speed and hitting ability will be critical in dealing with Pryor rushing the football.

 

[NFBuck]

Projected USC Starting Lineup for next season :18/01/09
Offense:
QB: Aaron Corp SO
RB: Stafon Johnson SR
FB: Stanley Havali JR
WR: Damian Williams JR
WR: Ronald Johnson JR
LT: Charles Brown SR
LG: Jeff Byers SR
C: Kris O'Dowd JR
RG: Alex Parsons SR
RT: Butch Lewis JR

Defense:
DE: Everson Griffen JR
DT: Armon Armstead So.
NT: Christian Tupou Jr.
DE: Malik Jackson So.
WLB: Malcolm Smith Jr.
MLB: Chris Galippo So.
SLB: Mike Morgan Jr.
CB: Shareece Wright Jr.
CB: Kevin Thomas SR.
SS: Will Harris SR.
FS: Taylor Mays Sr.

That is what concerns me the most at this early juncture. Those guys are studs. Losing MJ is too big for words. Chekwa got abused in the Fiesta Bowl and the other spot will be filled by an inexperience youngster. Yeah, they'll be breaking in a new QB, but I think it's a safe assumption that whoever is taking snaps will be able to get those guys the ball. I think our DL is gonna be the best we've seen in years, but USC's experienced line may be able to neutralize that. If the line can get pressure on the QB, I think we win this game. If not, the offense is gonna have to put up a lot of points.

Like 'thomps said, Mays coming back is big in helping to marginalize Pryor's legs, so he'll have to make plays with his arm. I'm confident his passing is gonna come a long way this spring/summer. With young LBers, a dink and dunk passing game to help set up Boom and the RB commitee will be critical. Ballard and Stoneburner in a new Flex-TE role could eat up nice chunks of yardage and possibly help open up a couple deep throws to Posey, Ray et al. Should be a fun game to watch.

 

[BUCKYLE]

Mustain losing his starting job as a freshman is not a concern inside the program. Arkansas was a mess in a lot of ways in 2006. Sanchez is the better QB at the moment thanks to his experience in the system, but it doesn't mean that Mustain and Corp are not ready to step up. I think they both are.

Given Pete's attitude during Sanchez' presser, he doesn't seem to share your confidence.

 

[Taosman]

Corp seems the better option judging by Pete's comments. And he's an athletic kid(runner). I'm sure they'll have him ready.

 

[bukIpower]

I do think that Mays is freak, but he by himself will not shut down Pryor. I hope Mays has like 20 tackles against us because that means he's meeting Pryor and Boom 10-13 yards down field. As far as the deep ball is concerned we could always just throw on the other 1/2 of the field haha.

The one thing that concerns me is the oline for USC. It's obviously going to be the best we're going to face all year. However, I don't share the same enthusiasm as you Methomps regaurding the QB situation. It was like when we lost Troy or Vince at Texas you just don't plug guys in (regaurdless of surrounding talent) and have not a big drop off. Neither Corpe nor Mustain are in the same leauge as Sanchez. I think they'll be better than solid in the long run but in the 2nd game of the year? In the shoe? I dunno thats a tall order for a first time starter.

In saying that our dline will battle with that offensive line. I think USC if we dont' commit to stopping the run will eventually win the LOS.

I just hope that having the better QB play, and the more experienced Defense can get us the win. Our strengths match up well with USC's strengths. I do think though that so long as Pryor doesn't turn the ball over we could most definatly win this game.

 

[jwinslow]

We all know stars don't mean everything, as evidenced by Jenkins, Laurinaitis, Ellison, but I was wondering how the stars aligned for this upcoming season vs 08. Did some digging and came up with this...

2008 Star Matchup:

USC - 11

(6 O, 5 D) ... 8

(4 O, 4 D) ... 3

vs
OSU - 3

(2 O, 1 D) ... 8

(2 O, 6 D) ... 9

/

^^ Both missing 1 5-star to injury.

2009 Star Matchup:

USC - 9

(6 O, 3 D) ... 13

(5 O, 8 D)
vs
OSU - 8

(6 O, 2 D).... 9

(4 O, 5 D) ... 3

/

Projected USC Starting Lineup for next season :18/01/09

Added their star rankings:


Offense:

QB: Aaron Corp SO

RB: Stafon Johnson SR

FB: Stanley Havali JR

WR: Damian Williams JR

WR: Ronald Johnson JR

TE: Anthony McCoy SR

LT: Charles Brown SR

LG: Jeff Byers SR

C: Kris O'Dowd JR

RG: Alex Parsons SR (Both Parsons...

RT: Butch Lewis JR ... & Lewis ranked as DL)

Defense:

DE: Everson Griffen JR

DT: Armon Armstead So.

NT: Christian Tupou Jr.

DE: Malik Jackson So.

WLB: Malcolm Smith Jr.

MLB: Chris Galippo So.

SLB: Mike Morgan Jr.

CB: Shareece Wright Jr.

CB: Kevin Thomas SR.

SS: Will Harris SR.

FS: Taylor Mays Sr.

vs

QB: Terrelle Pryor

RB: Boom Herron

WR: Devier Posey

WR: Ray Small

LT: Mike Adams

LG: Jim Cordle

OC: Mike Brewster

RG: Justin Boren

RT: JB Shugarts

DE: Thaddeus Gibson

DT: Cameron Heyward

DT: Doug Worthington

DE: Lawrence Wilson

LB: Ross Homan

LB: Etienne Sabino

S/LB: Jermale Hines

CB: Chimdi Chekwa

S: Anderson Russell

S: Kurt Coleman

CB: Travis Howard (my guess)

 

[methomps]

Sanchez didn't mean to SC what Young and Smith meant to UT and OSU. There were games where SC parked the passing game and relied on running and defense to win (Cal).

I kinda feel this discussion went on last year when people were saying that there just had to be a dropoff transitioning from Booty to Sanchez. The answer is the same: maybe, but probably not fatal. Sanchez rose to the challenge early last year. Corp and Mustain have good experience in the program, and they were battling in fall camp when it looked like Sanchez was out with the knee injury. Mustain also started 8 games for Arkansas his freshman year.

Whoever wins the job will be coming into a pretty good situation. We return the entire oline and the top 3 RBs. Our top WR is back and our top deep threat is, too. All our TEs are back, and Blake Ayles should be ready to become a bigger factor in the passing game. Havili should also be ready to go.

Playing Ohio State in the Shoe is very difficult, but we aren't a dead stick at the QB position.

 

[schwab]

Playing Ohio State in the Shoe is very difficult, but we aren't a dead stick at the QB position.

I would say if there is a team and a position out there that is a legitimate "plug-n-play", it is you guys at the QB position.

 

[23Skidoo]

Sanchez didn't mean to SC what Young and Smith meant to UT and OSU. There were games where SC parked the passing game and relied on running and defense to win (Cal).

I kinda feel this discussion went on last year when people were saying that there just had to be a dropoff transitioning from Booty to Sanchez. The answer is the same: maybe, but probably not fatal. Sanchez rose to the challenge early last year. Corp and Mustain have good experience in the program, and they were battling in fall camp when it looked like Sanchez was out with the knee injury. Mustain also started 8 games for Arkansas his freshman year.

Whoever wins the job will be coming into a pretty good situation. We return the entire oline and the top 3 RBs. Our top WR is back and our top deep threat is, too. All our TEs are back, and Blake Ayles should be ready to become a bigger factor in the passing game. Havili should also be ready to go.

Playing Ohio State in the Shoe is very difficult, but we aren't a dead stick at the QB position.

The only thing I find disagreeable is the insinuation that Ohio State and Cal defenses are comparable. USC may be able to play them one dimensional like that, but I think our DLine will be very good next year.

 

[808 Buck]

I think you might want to add Joe McKnight at 1b at RB, he's pretty good too.

USC has hired Jeremy Bates as its new offensive coordinator on Monday to fill the vacancy left by Steve Sarkisian, who was recently named head coach at the University of Washington.

USC hires Jeremy Bates as new O-coordinator - ESPN

McKnight is a guy that you have to account for on every play. When healthy, I can't think of too many players that are as explosive as he is.

It will be interesting to see what type of changes, if any, Bates will bring to SC. Bates' expertise is with QB's, so we shall see what type of progression that Corp and Mustain, (Barkley too, for that matter) make over the next several months.

 

[methomps]

One interesting possibility is Joe McKnight running the wildcat. They broke it out early last year, but shelved it after Carroll admitted that it needed more practice. With an entire offseason, they might consider giving it another try.

The only thing I find disagreeable is the insinuation that Ohio State and Cal defenses are comparable. USC may be able to play them one dimensional like that, but I think our DLine will be very good next year.

I wasn't making that insinuation (although I think that Cal's D is no slouch -- just not at OSU's level). Rather, I was pointing out that SC could win without Sanchez being the center of the attack, something you certainly couldn't say about Texas with Vince and maybe Ohio State without Troy.

 

[jwinslow]

I wasn't making that insinuation (although I think that Cal's D is no slouch -- just not at OSU's level). Rather, I was pointing out that SC could win without Sanchez being the center of the attack, something you certainly couldn't say about Texas with Vince and maybe Ohio State without Troy.

I think you could say it in 05 (their best team, just hindered by Troy), less so in 06 (though Pittman/Wells were a salty duo).

 

[irishtrojan]

What is the difference between Osu's Defense line last season compared next years???
apart from experience of course