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Strength of Schedule. Guess who 117th is.

Discussion in 'Buckeye Football' started by ohiobuck94, Dec 2, 2004.

  1. Bamabuck

    Bamabuck Newbie

    How can anyone say that Auburn has one of the toughest schedules?

    <TABLE cellPadding=1 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=3>
    [font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]2004 FOOTBALL SCHEDULE[/font]​
    </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>
    [font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]RECORD: 11-0 [/font][/font]​
    </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000059><TD width="15%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]9-4-04[/font]</TD><TD width="53%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]LOUISIANA-MONROE[/font]</TD><TD width="32%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WON 31-0[/font]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ff6600><TD width="15%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]9-11-04[/font]</TD><TD width="53%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]at Mississippi State[/font]</TD><TD width="32%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WON 43-14 [/font]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000059><TD width="15%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]9-18-04[/font]</TD><TD width="53%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]LOUISIANA STATE [/font]</TD><TD width="32%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WON 10-9 [/font]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000059><TD width="15%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]9-25-04[/font]</TD><TD width="53%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]THE CITADEL [/font]</TD><TD width="32%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WON 33-3 [/font]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ff6600><TD width="15%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]10-2-04[/font]</TD><TD width="53%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]at Tennessee [/font]</TD><TD width="32%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WON 34-10 [/font]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000059><TD width="15%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]10-9-04[/font]</TD><TD width="53%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]LOUISIANA TECH [/font]</TD><TD width="32%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WON 52-7 [/font]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000059><TD width="15%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]10-16-04[/font]</TD><TD width="53%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ARKANSAS[/font]</TD><TD width="32%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WON 38-20 [/font]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000059><TD width="15%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]10-23-04[/font]</TD><TD width="53%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]KENTUCKY[/font]</TD><TD width="32%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WON 42-10 [/font]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ff6600><TD width="15%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]10-30-04[/font]</TD><TD width="53%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]at Mississippi [/font]</TD><TD width="32%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WON 35-14 [/font]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000059><TD width="15%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]11-13-04[/font]</TD><TD width="53%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]GEORGIA[/font]</TD><TD width="32%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WON 24-6 [/font]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ff6600><TD width="15%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]11-20-04[/font]</TD><TD width="53%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]at Alabama[/font]</TD><TD width="32%">[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WON 21-13 [/font]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
     
  2. sandgk

    sandgk Watson, Crick & A Twist

    OK - Base BCS Formula - 1/3rd ABC Poll Rank + 1/3rd ESPN/USA Poll Rank + 1/3rd Average Computer Rank --

    Total Weight of Computer Rank in Formula is 0.333

    Cursory review of SOS in Computer Rankings indicates (to my eye) that it is at best half of the overall Computer Rating.
    Therefore maximum apparent weight given to SOS by Computer rankings when used in BCS formula is 0.167 (1/6th) of overall BCS Ranking.

    What remains unclear to me are the different means by which SOS is "measured" in each computer model, versus that in NCAA and that used in Greenfield -- which is where this all started.

    Lies, Damnable Lies and Statistics.
     
  3. kippy1040

    kippy1040 Junior

    The D1-AA has really gained some muscle since Tressel has left YSU. He was pretty sucessfull in recruiting high class caliber students in his last 4 years at Youngstown. In 1994 Boise State came into Huntington and took on Marshall and Kicked thier ass in the N/C semi-final game and was just licking thier chops to get YSU next. But Youngstown drilled them pretty good the next week.
    They say at the time that Boise State was just a year or 2 away from D1-A. But YSU made them pretty humble real quick. Even in 1997 YSU beat a great defensive team 10-9 in McNeese State for his last N/C game. How the hell Tressel ever came up with that game plan is beyond me still today.

    S. O. S. can't take into matters in determining a teams ware. UNLESS its athletic directors knows the value of its opponents 9 to 10 years in the future. That is damn hard to do. Urban Myers has done a great Job with Utah but how strong is the conference they play in. We don't really know but I think Pittsburgh( if they beat USF) will give them a damn good game.

    I think that SOS was taken out of the focus because of scheduling that is 8 to 10 years in advance. It may sound bogus but its something to think about. Believe you me, alot of D1-AA coaches are happy that Tressel is gone from YSU. It makes thier job alittle easier now.
     
  4. MistriBuck

    MistriBuck aka MartyrBuck

    you beat me to it, that first list seems a little strange, i'm not sure what criteria they are using

    although, as it was pointed out, Auburn didn't play "one of the toughest schedules in the country", but any schedule that includes, Georgia, LSU, Alabama, Tennesee doesn't belong anywhere near the bottom of a SOS rating, regardless of the patsies they played in their OOC games
     
  5. buckiprof

    buckiprof 21st Century Buckeye Man Staff Member

    3yards - Thanks for posting the info from Greenfield's site. IMO, his method, trying to incorporate relativity, is much like voodoo. Sure it can produce rankings, but are they meaningful. Again, to me they are not meaningful.

    A SOS rankings that incorporates your opponents W-L record as well as your opponents opponents might be interesting to see.
     
  6. methomps

    methomps an imbecility, a stupidity without name

    As you can imagine, this is a topic I find very relevant to me. Here is my contribution:

    Trojan BCS Guide
     
  7. 3yardsandacloud

    3yardsandacloud Administrator Emeritus


    No problem prof. I think that both models have some merit. While Grrenfield explains the rationale behind his rankings he doesn't divulge the computations involved. In reality, very few of the ranking engines/site give you the specifics on their computations so as to protect their "intellectual property". In fact, the New York Times had to hire some specialists when updating their computer ranking, a year or two ago, because no one remaining on staff recalled how their system worked or was designed/intended to work.

    Your suggestion of opponent's record and opponent's opponent's record was exactly what the BCS formula was using last season. 2/3 of the score was opponent's record and 1/3 of the score was opponent's opponent's record. I suspect you knew this fact. I tend to like this formula as well, as it is simple yet tries to add some depth to the numbers.

    The straight computation of opponent's records is accurate yet can be very misleading. The easiest way to demonstarte this is with this scenario.

    We'll use the Big Ten conference (11 teams) playing a round-robin 10 game season. I'll just plug in a assumed W-L record that accounts (in general) for Best to Worst finishes.

    OSU..............10-0
    Michigan........9-1
    Iowa..............8-2
    Wisconsin......7-3
    Purdue..........6-4
    Minnesota......5-5
    Penn State.....4-6
    Michigan St.....3-7
    Illinois...........2-8
    Northwestern...1-9
    Indiana..........0-10

    What does this show us? Using straight opponent's record computation Indiana will have the highest SOS because each team above them will have a better W-L reord. Ohio State will have the lowest SOS because each team below them has a worse W-L record. The SOS ranking will be in inverse order of W-L record even though every team has "essentially" played the same schedule. Does this mean that Indiana really played a tougher schedule than Northwestern? No. The whole system design will inflate the SOS of weak teams and deflate the SOS of strong teams.

    While Greenfield's system tries to compensate for the flaws of this other system, his lack of deatils concerning formulas and computations does leave the impression of (as you say) vodoo mathematics.
     
  8. methomps

    methomps an imbecility, a stupidity without name

    3yards, without specifically calculating things, I think that Indiana's SOS wouldn't be much higher than OSU's. This is because of a nuance in the system. Losses inflicted by OSU on the B10 teams wouldn't count when calculating OSU's SOS, but those losses inflicted by OSU would count for Indiana's SOS. Likewise, wins teams have by beating Indiana wouldn't be counted when calculating Indiana's SOS, but they would be counted when calculating OSU's SOS.

    Essentially, the conference would look like this for OSU's SOS purposes:

    Michigan........9-0
    Iowa..............8-1
    Wisconsin......7-2
    Purdue..........6-3
    Minnesota......5-4
    Penn State.....4-5
    Michigan St.....3-6
    Illinois...........2-7
    Northwestern...1-8
    Indiana..........0-9

    Notice each team has one less loss (the loss OSU gave them). And for calculating Indiana's SOS:

    OSU..............9-0
    Michigan........8-1
    Iowa.............7-2
    Wisconsin......6-3
    Purdue..........5-4
    Minnesota......4-5
    Penn State.....3-6
    Michigan St.....2-7
    Illinois...........1-8
    Northwestern...0-9

    Notice each team has one less win (the win Indiana gave them)

    OSU's opponent record: 45-45
    Indiana's opponent rec.: 45-45

    Ok, so I just went ahead and calculated it. I hope my ramblings made sense
     
  9. 3yardsandacloud

    3yardsandacloud Administrator Emeritus


    Hummm, I might be a bit confused by the same record for OSU's and Indiana's opponent's W-L record. It should be:

    OSU's opponent's record = 45-55
    Indiana's opponent's record = 55-45

    Simply add up the W-L record for each team excluding OSU for Ohio State, then do the same for Indiana. Am I missing something?

    Here are the teams for Ohio State:
    Michigan........9-1
    Iowa..............8-2
    Wisconsin......7-3
    Purdue..........6-4
    Minnesota......5-5
    Penn State.....4-6
    Michigan St.....3-7
    Illinois...........2-8
    Northwestern...1-9
    Indiana..........0-10
    W-L = ..........45-55

    Here are the teams for Indiana:
    OSU..............10-0
    Michigan........9-1
    Iowa..............8-2
    Wisconsin......7-3
    Purdue..........6-4
    Minnesota......5-5
    Penn State.....4-6
    Michigan St.....3-7
    Illinois...........2-8
    Northwestern...1-9
    W-L = ..........55-45
     
  10. wdg01

    wdg01 Freshman

    As Methomps said, the in the strenght of schedule system the BCS had in place, The win loss records exclude the games that that particular team played in. OSU would have given opponents 10 more loses that would not count toward as loses when calculatings OSU's SoS.
     
  11. methomps

    methomps an imbecility, a stupidity without name

    Yes, but realize that OSU gave a loss to each of those teams they played. Michigan went 9-1, but its 1 loss was to OSU. The SOS formula doesn't count that loss against OSU. So Michigan is really a 9-0 team as far as OSU's SOS is concerned. Same for every other team.

    Now, Indiana gave a win to all of the teams they played. Northwestern is really a 0-9 team that beat Indiana to become 1-9. That win doesn't count for Indiana's SOS. As far as Indiana's SOS is concerned, Northwestern is 0-9.

    That brings it down to 45-45
     
  12. Buckeyeskickbuttocks

    Buckeyeskickbuttocks Z --> Z^2 + c Staff Member

    This is an example of why I leave calculations and such to other people. All I know is, The Big XII is not harder than that SEC. Out of 12 teams, there are 2 which are any good.. Texas and Oklahomo. In fact, the Big XII North ought to be auctioned off to the Sun Belt Conf. or something - simply miserable. Given the option of coaching a Big XII North school or getting run over by a steamroller, I'd take a long hard look at later before making my decision.
     
  13. 3yardsandacloud

    3yardsandacloud Administrator Emeritus

    OK, maybe we're arguing a bit of semantics here. My example is showing a straight W-L record computation, not the BCS formula (which is different and doesn't even exist anymore), to show the misleading nature of this type of SOS calculation. Not to mention that these computations make no adjustment for home vs away, team ranking, rival games, etc. I agree that the elimination of games against common opponents would render the same SOS, so maybe my example is a poor one. I will attack this from a different angle with what I think is an easier way to understand why this calculation of SOS can be misleading.

    Playing teams with the same W-L record will yield the same SOS result even though all records are not created equally. Simply put, do you believe that all teams with an 8-3 record are the same difficulty to play? Does anyone think that playing an away game versus 8-3 Florida State is the same difficulty as playing a home game versus 8-3 Northern Illinois?

    Northern Illinois got to 8-3 by playing Maryland, Southern Illinois, Iowa State, Bowling Green, Akron, UCF, Western Michigan, Ball State, Toledo, and Eastern Michigan

    Florida State got to 8-3 by playing Miami (FL), UAB, Clemson, North Carolina, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Maryland, Duke, NC State, and Florida


    To carry it further:

    Your team could play 8-3 teams Arizona State, Virginia, and Florida State all on the road.

    Another team could play 8-3 teams Northern Illinois, Miami of Ohio, and Memphis at home.

    Should each team's resulting SOS be the same? That's what we do with simple W-L calculations of SOS. While accurate in a statistical sense, it isn't always a good or true representation of real SOS.

    Hopefully that's a bit easier to understand.
     
  14. stxbuck

    stxbuck Woody wore Sambas

    The Broncos are going to be as black and blue as the carpet they play on when the Cardinals get thru w/ them. Louisville would smoke Utah, Boise, or Pitt.
     
  15. MoCity Raider

    MoCity Raider Newbie

    With all due respect, I think you're getting a little carried away. This is your site, so I will chalk it up to regional bias.
    "Two teams which are any good" is absolute nonsense. The only real gimme traveling in the Big 12 is Baylor. Yeah the North was pretty weak this year, but I don't know many teams that want to travel to Lincoln or Boulder to play.
    Just for fun...
    UT=tOSU
    OU=tsun (No offense intended to any other visitors from up north. I'm just trying to fit in.)
    NU=PSU
    ATM=MSU
    Tech=Purdue
    OSU=Iowa
    KSU=UW
    KU=IU
    Mizzou=Minn.
    CU=Illinois
    ISU=?NW
    BU=?NW
    Looks like some fun match ups. You may see them differently. But my point is, this is not the Big 2 and little 10.
    You can do the same thing with the SEC. FYI, Tech manhandled Ole Miss the last two years of Eli in a home and home. Recall also that during this long streak of winning seasons Tech has ventured into Big 10 country three times. Narrow losses to tOSU and and PSU, and the blow out last year.
    IN closing, I don't see that much in Auburns schedule. Yes the SEC is always tough (as are the 10 and 12), but only 4 games were away from home. Out of the 4, only a down Tennesse team represented any real challenge this year.
     

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