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Stupid two point conversions (SimpLLLLLe Jim loves 'em, and so does James Franklin)

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Arrgghhh! Curse you, Memphis!

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Knowing nothing about football, I'm still pretty certain it's more likely to throw a pick than it is to have your kicker blocked and run back.

They had no faith in their D to hold on for a lousy minute or so but still had faith the same D would be able to block Wake's kicker to prevent a winning after point in order to send them into OT. (He'd made every after point all day, plus a 49 yard FG). They were apparently certain another Wake TD was guaranteed. Again, which is more likely?

I don't agree with their math. Open to being corrected.
 
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It seems Jimmy isn't the only Harbaugh who likes to get stupid. Trailing 30-19 in the 4th at KC, the Ravens went for two instead of kicking and making it a ten point game. They failed.

Of course, the reason it was 30-19 because they went for two after their first TD of the game. They failed.
 
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Jake said:
It seems Jimmy isn't the only Harbaugh who likes to get stupid. Trailing 30-19 in the 4th at KC, the Ravens went for two instead of kicking and making it a ten point game. They failed.

Of course, the reason it was 30-19 because they went for two after their first TD of the game. They failed.
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Interestingly, since moving the XP back, the Math in the NFL says it's now stupid to kick the extra point, at least when variance and point differential aren't getting too defined late in the game. We should start a "stupid extra point conversions" thread too.
 
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BigJim said:
Interestingly, since moving the XP back, the Math in the NFL says it's now stupid to kick the extra point, at least when variance and point differential aren't getting too defined late in the game. We should start a "stupid extra point conversions" thread too.
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Statistically, over the course of the season, that's true. The 94% success rate for XPs vs 47% for two pointers last season bears that out.

But there are game situations. The fact is on any single attempt your chances of failure are higher going for two than they are for one, so is the risk worth the potential reward at that moment of the game?
 
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His reasoning apparently was knowing they still needed two stops AND two scores just to tie, the probability of winning in regulation was worth the risk because to win in overtime would thus require three stops, and/or three scores, and/or winning a coin flip.

Advanced analytics. I’ll give him this, he can at least articulate it (whether you agree is another matter). Imagine Simple Jim trying to explain computer simulations and win probability models.

 
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