Game Thread Texas Game Score Predictions

[hookemhorns2004]

After all of the ESPN articles, most casual CFB fans are sure that Tressel's a pushover. He does let them earn their way back after major violations at times (which was repeated over and over on ESPN to suggest corruption), but ironically he's quite a stickler for small things. Players miss series or games b/c they were late to practices or skipped classes. Missing class is probably the worst thing Troy could have done.

If you plan on checking on this site fairly often, go to user CP (along the top), group memberships (along the left), and click on join group for Millers.

That will allow you to view and post in our rumor mill section. It's somewhere that we discuss rumors that are unsubstantiated, but certain topics like suspended players, Boeckman to start Texas game (based on former player's word), etc.

To give a synopsis, many of us expect Troy to not start against Texas, but still be our #1 guy down the road unless Boeckman looks like Leinart in each game.

Boeckman also has been the QB with the scout team for much of last year (since Zwick was hurt from Iowa on), and apparently he made the first team defense look silly at times. He can get out of the pocket well, but is a true pocket passer.

He is listed as a RS freshman, but he grayshirted in 2003 (means you practice in the summer before the season, skip the fall practices, and rejoin the team practices early in the winter), and then redshirted in 2004. He is quite experienced mentally (tho he has not seen the field very much). He looked pretty solid in the spring game, when our other two QBs looked pretty average.

Moreover, you can count on gameplanning for two QBs. Many of us think Troy could miss the first series, and are unsure how many he'll miss after that. Boeckman is an excellent pocket passer who will not tuck and run too early like a typical dual-threat QB will.

Then there's Teddy Ginn, who played QB in HS and could mix things up. Plus MililianiBuckeye would lose a vBet and not post on this site for quite a while.

Looks good, I will check into it. Thanks for the detailed response. I can't wait for this game to get here.

 

[Jagdaddy]

33-27 Bucks in a game that isn't that close. I think this game will play out a lot like the 2004 Fiesta Bowl. The Bucks will jump on the Horns early and get a couple of turnovers, but will subsequently settle for a few field goals and run clock to allow UT to make the final score closer than the game.

 

[buckeyeboy]

Looks good, I will check into it. Thanks for the detailed response. I can't wait for this game to get here.

That's a pretty cool quote by Ricky (I just noticed it), but does he realize that no school in the state of Texas has claimed a national championship under ANY of the main polls since seven years before he was born?

 

[High Lonesome]

but does he realize that no school in the state of Texas has claimed a national championship under ANY of the main polls since seven years before he was born?

Thats how cool Texas is!

 

[buckeyeboy]

Point taken:cheers: .

 

[xrayrandy]

"Quote:
<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Originally Posted by xrayrandy
Our offense averaged 37 points last year while yours averaged 18.
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Which is it? 20 or 18? How can you let us think you're credible if you can't even agree with yourself?"

That was a typo, I meant to say your defense averaged 18.

"Let's see...you guys gave up 35 (18 over your average) to Okla. St., a team against whom we only gave up 7 (in scrub time, at that) and you gave up 37 (20 over your average) to scUM, a team against whom we only gave up 21."

No excuses on the first half against OSU, our defense was bad, but we shut them out the second hald and won by 21. On the other hand you can't compare OSU at mid season with the way they were after all the infighting and their coach being tossed, or hired away. They were two different teams.

With Michigan we handed them points with turnovers and special teams. Without out two turnovers the margin may have been 13 instead of 1. I use a standard factor of 6 points per turnover, which I heard someplace is the norm. In your game with Michigan it could have been 4 instead of 16 if you factor out turnovers, or without the punt return you could have lost by 3. If you look at the scoreboard comparison, and neutralize the affect of turnovers and special teams, Texas is around 3 TDs better.

A lot of fans on Texas boards think we will win by 21. I prefer to look at the season rather than just one game, but if you think one game is the way to go 21 points it is.

 

[gregorylee]

well i can see that but if you look a little harder and stretch a couple of things then it is not as bad.

1)ou got their asses handed to them and there is nothing you can say
2)the rosebowl score was more a product of shoddy sp teams than bad defense
3)tech doesn't really have a defense, even with that the game was not as close as the score indicated as cal got 1 or 2 tds in mop up time when tech had the back ups in
4)atm is bad and had no business in the cotton bowl
5)okie state was having many problems that day and defense wasn't the only one. no one can explain why they didn't even try to run and we all know about miles and the other coaches. this was not the same team that finished the season.

combine that with the fact that ou and ut in the bcs pushed up the rest of the teams 1 rung on the bowl ladder and you have the makings of mismatches.

That said, i can understand how just looking at those numbers would lead you to believe that defense is a four letter word in the big 12

Sorry this took so long, I had to email it home to finish. I am slow...


Doesn't look like there are very many missmatches to me. I am sure I missed a few though. Even pushed up a rung on the ladder, I felt like going over it a little bit just to see how things have gone in the last 6 or seven years (and stome stats for xray since he seems so fond of them (probably spanks it on his calculator ).

I left the BCS out since there really isn't much conference affiliation anymore.


Bowl: New Orleans Bowl
When: Dec. 14, 8:00, ESPN 2
Where: New Orleans, LA
Sun Belt No. 1 vs. C-USA No. 4

Bowl: Champs Sports Bowl
When: Dec. 21, 7:45, ESPN
Where: Orlando, FL
Conference tie-ins:
ACC No. 4 vs. Big XII No. 7


Bowl: GMAC Bowl
When: Dec. 22, 8:00, ESPN
Where: Mobile, AL
Conference tie-ins:
C-USA No. 2 or 3 vs. MAC No. 1 or 2

Bowl: Las Vegas Bowl
When: Dec. 23, 9:30 ESPN
Where: Las Vegas, NV
Conference tie-ins:
M West No. 2 vs. Pac 10 No. 5

2003 Fort Worth Bowl Preview
Bowl: Fort Worth Bowl
When: Dec. 23, 6:30, ESPN
Where: Fort Worth, TX
Conference tie-ins: Big XII No. 8 vs. C-USA No. 6

Bowl: Hawaii Bowl
When: Dec. 24, 7:00, ESPN
Where: Honolulu, HI
Conference tie-ins: C-USA No. 3 vs. WAC No. 1, 2 or 3


Bowl: MPC Computers Bowl
When: Dec. 27, 2:00 pm, ESPN
Where: Boise, ID
Conference tie-ins:
WAC vs. ACC No. 6

Bowl: Motor City Bowl
When: Dec. 27, 5:30 ESPN
Where: Detroit, MI
Conference tie-ins:
MAC vs. Big Ten No. 7



Bowl: Insight Bowl
When: Dec. 28, 9:30, ESPN
Where: Phoenix, AZ
Conference tie-ins: Big East No. 3 or ND vs. Pac 10 No. 4

Bowl: Independence Bowl
When: Dec. 28, 6:30 ESPN
Where: Shreveport, LA
Conference tie-ins:
Big XII No. 5 or 6 vs. SEC



Bowl: Silicon Valley Classic
When: Dec. 30, 11 pm, ESPN2
Where: San Jose, CA
Conference tie-ins:
WAC No. 2 or MAC vs. Pac 10 No. 7

Bowl: Alamo Bowl
When: Dec. 29, 8:00 ESPN
Where: San Antonio, TX
Conference tie-ins:
Big Ten No. 4 vs. Big XII No. 4

Bowl: Houston Bowl
When: Dec. 29, 3:30, ESPN
Where: Houston, TX
Conference tie-ins:
SEC vs. Big XII

Bowl: Holiday Bowl
When: Dec. 30, 8:00, ESPN
Where: San Diego, CA
Conference tie-ins:
Big XII No. 3 vs. Pac 10 No. 2

Bowl: Emerald Bowl
When: Dec 30, 4:30 pm, ESPN2
Where: San Francisco, CA
Conference tie-ins: Pac 10 No. 6 vs. MWest No. 3

Bowl: Continental Tire Bowl
When: Dec. 30, 11 am, ESPN
Where: Charlotte, NC
Conference tie-ins:
Big East No. 4 or 5 and ACC No. 5



Bowl: Sun Bowl
When: Dec. 31, 2:00, CBS
Where: El Paso, TX
Conference tie-ins: Big 10 No. 5 vs. Pac 10 No. 3

Bowl: Peach Bowl
When: Dec. 31, 7:30, ESPN
Where: Atlanta, GA
Conference tie-ins:
ACC No. 3 vs. SEC No. 4

Bowl: Music City Bowl
When: Dec. 31, Noon, ESPN
Where: Nashville, TN
Conference tie-ins: Big Ten vs. SEC

Bowl: Liberty Bowl
When: Dec. 31. 3:30, ESPN
Where: Memphis, TN
Conference tie-ins:
C-USA No. 1 vs. MWest No. 1

[/b]Bowl: Outback Bowl
When: Jan. 1, 11:00, ESPN
Where: Tampa, FL
Conference tie-ins:
Big Ten No. 3 vs. SEC No. 3 (East)[/b]

Bowl: Gator Bowl
When: Jan. 1, 12:30, NBC
Where: Jacksonville, FL
Conference tie-ins: ACC No. 2 vs. Big East No. 2 or Notre Dame

Bowl: Cotton Bowl
When: Jan. 1, 11:00, Fox
Where: Dallas, TX
Conference tie-ins: Big XII No. 2 vs. SEC No. 3 (West if possible), Big East or Notre Dame

So in summary we have

Big XII Tie ins



Champs Sports
ACC No. 4 vs. Big XII No. 7 (1 - 1) (didn't look like B12 #7 was eligable for 04 since GT blew out the 'Cuse) (03 NC State 56, Kansas 26) (02 Texas Tech 55, Clemson 15)

Fort Worth
Big XII No. 8 vs. C-USA No. 6 This one was Cinci and Marshall last year in only its second year, can't seem to find the first year, not that it matters.

Inependence
Big XII No. 5 or 6 vs. SEC (0 - 5) Since the conference tie in in '99 (99 Ole Miss 27 - OU 25) (2000 aTm 41 - Miss St 43) (2001 'Bama beats Ia St, the site didn't say and the yr by yr result link didn't work) (2002 Neb 23 - Ole Miss 27) (2003 Mizzou 14 - Ark 27)

Alamo
Big Ten No. 4 vs. Big XII No. 4 (3 - 7) (#22 Ohio State 33 vs Oklahoma State 7) ( #21 Nebraska 17 vs Michigan State 3 ) (Wisconsin 31 vs Colorado 28 ) (Iowa 19 vs Texas Tech 16 ) (#8 Nebraska 66 vs #19 Northwestern 17 ) (#13 Penn State 24 vs #18 Texas A&M 0) ( Purdue 37 vs #4 Kansas State 34 ) (#16 Purdue 33 vs #24 Oklahoma State 20 ) (#21 Iowa 27 vs Texas Tech 0) (#19 Texas A&M 22 vs #14 Michigan 20 )




Houston
SEC vs. Big XII (4 - 1) (Dec. 29, 2004 Colorado 33, UTEP 28) (Dec. 30, 2003 Texas Tech 38, Navy 14) (Dec. 27, 2002 Oklahoma State 33, Southern Miss 23) (Dec. 28, 2001 Texas A&M 28, TCU 9) (Dec. 27, 2000 East Carolina 40, Texas Tech 27)



Holiday
Big XII No. 3 vs. Pac 10 No. 2 (4 - 3) (Dec. 30, 2004 Texas Tech 45, California 31) (Dec. 23, 2003 Washington State 28, Texas 20) (Dec. 27, 2002 Kansas State 34, Arizona State 27) (Dec. 28, 2001 Texas 47, Washington 43) (Dec. 29, 2000 Oregon 35, Texas 30) (Dec. 30, 1999 Kansas State 24, Washington 20) (Dec. 30, 1998 Arizona 23, Nebraska 20)

COtton
Big XII No. 2 vs. SEC No. 3 (West if possible), Big East or Notre Dame (3 - 4)
(Jan. 1, 2005 Tennessee 38, Texas A&M 7) (Jan. 2, 2004 Mississippi 31, Oklahoma State 28) (Jan. 1, 2003 Texas 35, LSU 20) (Jan. 1, 2002 Oklahoma 10, Arkansas 3) (Jan. 1, 2001 Kansas State 35, Tennessee 21) (Jan. 1, 2000 Arkansas 27, Texas 6) (Jan. 1, 1999 Texas 38, Mississippi State 11)







BigTen



Motor City MAC vs. Big Ten No. 7 ( 0 - 1) No Big 10 team was eligeble in 2004
(Dec. 26, 2003 Bowling Green 28, Northwestern 24) This I believe was the first year of the tie in.

Citrus ( 4 - 4 )
Big Ten No.2 vs. SEC No.2
Jan. 1, 2005 Iowa 30, LSU 25
Jan. 1, 2004 Georgia 34, Purdue 27
Jan. 1, 2003 Auburn 13, Penn State 9
Jan. 1, 2002 Tennessee 45, Michigan 17
Jan. 1, 2001 Michigan 31, Auburn 28
Jan. 1, 2000 Michigan State 37, Florida 34
Jan. 1, 1999 Michigan 45, Arkansas 31
Jan. 1, 1998 Florida 21, Penn St. 6





Alamo (again) ( 7 - 3 )
Big Ten No. 4 vs. Big XII No. 4
Dec. 29, 2004 Ohio State 33, Oklahoma State 7
Dec. 29, 2003 Nebraska 17, Michigan State 3
Dec. 28, 2002 Wisconsin 31, Colorado 28
Dec. 29, 2001 Iowa 19, Texas Tech 16
Dec. 30, 2000 Nebraska 66, Northwestern 17
Dec. 29, 1999 Penn State 24, Texas A&M 0
Dec. 29, 1998 Purdue 37, Kansas State 34



Sun
Big 10 No. 5 vs. Pac 10 No. 3 ( 3 - 3 )
Dec. 31, 2004 Arizona State 27, Purdue 23
Dec. 31, 2003 Minnesota 31, Oregon 30
Dec. 31, 2002 Purdue 34, Washington 24
Dec. 31, 2001 Washington State 33, Purdue 27
Dec. 29, 2000 Wisconsin 21, UCLA 20
Dec. 31, 1999 Oregon 24, Minnesota 20



Music City
Big Ten vs. SEC ( 2 - 1 )
Dec. 31, 2004 Minnesota 20, Alabama 16
Dec. 31, 2003 Auburn 28, Wisconsin 14
Dec. 30, 2002 Minnesota 29, Arkansas 14

Outback
Big Ten No. 3 vs. SEC No. 3 (East) ( 3 - 5 )
Jan. 1, 2005 Georgia 24, Wisconsin 21
Jan. 1, 2004 Iowa 37, Florida 17
Jan. 1, 2003 Michigan 38, Florida 30
Jan. 1, 2002 South Carolina 31, Ohio St. 28
Jan. 1, 2001 South Carolina 24, Ohio State 7
Jan. 1, 2000 Georgia 28, Purdue 25, OT
Jan. 1, 1999 Penn State 26, Kentucky 14
Jan. 1, 1998 Georgia 33, Wisconsin 6


Ok, lets look at the ones that the conference ranking puts the BIG 12 at a "disadvantage"



Champs Sports
ACC No. 4 vs. Big XII No. 7 1 and 1 doesn't seem like much of a mismatch.

Up until last year this probably still would have been "advantage - big12" Maybe even still, the ACC is VaTech, Miami, and FSU, then everybody else.




Fort Worth
Big XII No. 8 vs. C-USA No. 6
C-USA... Please....



Holiday
Big XII No. 3 vs. Pac 10 No. 2
Pac-10 #2 You mean USC isn't the only team in the Pac-10? (Sure seems that way). Besides, B12 leads series by 1, no whining.

and the Big10
Sun
Big 10 No. 5 vs. Pac 10 No. 3
I can't call this a Pac-10 advantage either. The series is tied 3 to 3

 

[jwinslow]

. In your game with Michigan it could have been 4 instead of 16 if you factor out turnovers, or without the punt return you could have lost by 3. If you look at the scoreboard comparison, and neutralize the affect of turnovers and special teams, Texas is around 3 TDs better.

You really are quite a unique individual.

How in the world are you going to throw out special teams and turnovers? Those are the two things that enabled a meager OSU offense to beat the unbeatable Miami team in 02, as well as get by all year unbeaten.

The biggest flaw I've seen in VY is the way he has forced passes at times. Maybe some of the time it is the WR not running a clean route, who cares. Either way, there are times where some part of the passing game looks shaky outside of throwing easier passes to a big target like Thomas.

OSU gains 25+ yards every time they return a punt, and gives out schollies regularly to punters and kickers so that they have great specialists like Groom, Sander, Nugent, etc... and many expect Huston/Trapasso to fill in nicely (and if they can't cut it, our billion other guys will).

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

I use a standard factor of 6 points per turnover, which I heard someplace is the norm. In your game with Michigan it could have been 4 instead of 16 if you factor out turnovers, or without the punt return you could have lost by 3. If you look at the scoreboard comparison, and neutralize the affect of turnovers and special teams, Texas is around 3 TDs better.

Seriously, do you even watch the game of football? First, you can't arbitrarily throw out turnovers, special teams, mistakes or anything else...they're as much a part of the game as a run or a pass. Second, 6 points per turnover has never been the standard, so I don't know who fed you that line.

A lot of fans on Texas boards think we will win by 21.

A lot of fans on Texas boards are smoking Bevo droppings. I don't think the game will be won by 21+ points, but if it is, it'll be won by the home team by 21. We can play the game 10 times and Texas would never win it by 21+...not even once.

 

[High Lonesome]

Greg

think about it this way,

- if ou didn't play in the mnc then they play mich or pitt or utah that should have been a win, who knows they were terrible that day

- Texas plays Tenn, I think we win, we sure as hell don't look like aggy

- Aggy plays zona state? cal would have been in the bcs and aggy would have had a shot

- Tech plays tOSU Ginn still has a field day but they give you a much better game than okie lite

- okie lite plays someone else, they still lose because of off the field issues.

That was all i was trying to say. the big 12 could still lose the majority of the bowls but i don't think that they would have been blowouts and many teams would have had a better shot to win. Only tech would have had a tougher game.

 

[gregorylee]

Nothin personal HL, I just felt like looking up the figures...

Speaking of figures...


GOTP (Ya'll been slackin!)


A fine Texas product...

 

[buckeyeboy]

With Michigan we handed them points with turnovers and special teams. Without out two turnovers the margin may have been 13 instead of 1. I use a standard factor of 6 points per turnover, which I heard someplace is the norm. In your game with Michigan it could have been 4 instead of 16 if you factor out turnovers, or without the punt return you could have lost by 3. If you look at the scoreboard comparison, and neutralize the affect of turnovers and special teams, Texas is around 3 TDs better.

I don't mean to pile on b/c the absurdity of this message has already been pointed out. However, I'd just like to note that by saying "if" several times like you did in your message, I probably could rationalize how OSU should have been undefeated last year and would have beaten USC in the Orange Bowl. Sorry, but such illogical arguments that first decide the conclusion and then work backward by attempting to change the premises just aren't convincing to anyone not waving a Horns' flag.

 

[NFBuck]

OSU-31
UT-17
Two TD passes, one long one early to Gonzo (ala scUM game) and Teddy on a slant late in the 3rd Quarter, one Yabouty INT returned for a TD, and a short run late in the fourth by Pittman to ice the game. UT scores on a 20+ yard scramble by VY, and a TD pass. A field goal by each team rounds out the scoring.

 

[hookemhorns2004]

That's a pretty cool quote by Ricky (I just noticed it), but does he realize that no school in the state of Texas has claimed a national championship under ANY of the main polls since seven years before he was born?

I am sure he thinks about that daily.

You really are quite a unique individual.

How in the world are you going to throw out special teams and turnovers? Those are the two things that enabled a meager OSU offense to beat the unbeatable Miami team in 02, as well as get by all year unbeaten.

The biggest flaw I've seen in VY is the way he has forced passes at times. Maybe some of the time it is the WR not running a clean route, who cares. Either way, there are times where some part of the passing game looks shaky outside of throwing easier passes to a big target like Thomas.

OSU gains 25+ yards every time they return a punt, and gives out schollies regularly to punters and kickers so that they have great specialists like Groom, Sander, Nugent, etc... and many expect Huston/Trapasso to fill in nicely (and if they can't cut it, our billion other guys will).

Yes, VYoung has been known to force passes...he needs to cut that out...

 

[martinss01]

On the other hand you can't compare OSU at mid season with the way they were after all the infighting and their coach being tossed, or hired away. They were two different teams.

now wait just a damn minute here... how can you, in the same fricken post mind you!, state that OSU when judged midseason can not be looked at the same way at the end of the season in the exact same post you are putting up season long numbers on tOSU to gain insight on the outcome of a game??????? how the hell does that work? team A can be judged in a certain fashion, but team B can't because it doesn't support my arguement? care to fill me in on exactly how this mentality works?

With Michigan we handed them points with turnovers and special teams. Without out two turnovers the margin may have been 13 instead of 1.

can you give me a single shread of EVIDENCE, ie not a wild guess, that leads you to believe that scum would not have scored on every single one of those drives had they started on their own 20?

I prefer to look at the season rather than just one game, but if you think one game is the way to go 21 points it is.

say again, over? i thought OSU couldn't be judged over the season...? oh yeah, we are talking about tOSU... sorry about that. makes all the difference, my bad. :roll: