nomatta
Hall of Fame
This was a discussion started on another board, where the question asked was "reload or rebuild?"
here was my much too long answer:
Who knows? this season some weren't sure we'd even make the NIT and we ended up beating Michigan, MSU, won at Purdue, finishing 15-3 and second in the B1G and then lost in the Round of 32 to a very good Gonzaga team.
that said, just going off what we can figure at the moment and looking at the players and trying to guess what's reasonable to expect from the guys coming back and the guys coming in... I mean, I have to say it's a rebuild.
I like CJ a lot and I think he gets unfairly maligned sometimes by the fanbase because he's not a pure PG. he really showed me something at the end of this game with how he was fighting and then hitting those FTs. no, he's not and will never be a pure PG. but I think he was a good lead guard for us and might be a really good one for us next season as a senior. that said, he has no identifiable/experienced help at the position next season. Dakich was a serviceable back-up and Tate often had games where he had more assists than CJ. I look at Washington and Muhammad's games and, yeah, we didn't have a complete backcourt this season and I don't think we do next season, either, unless Holtmann can get a grad transfer PG who can really play.
I am pretty undecided on Kaleb. I just question how much he can improve on the defensive end. Can he get to that place where he can play adequate D without fouling? He is an asset in terms of some of his skills, I especially like how he can pass out of the post. He's a mediocre rebounder and sometimes a poor finisher down on the block, a lot of it just having to do with his complete lack of athleticism. He's got good hands and some moves, though, so...? I think he really needs to continue working on getting in the best shape he can. I don't think he can become the impact post player we need him to be if he can't move well enough to defend without fouling and/or Holtmann has to keep subbing him out for defensive reasons. He had some good games this season but he was a pretty miserable liability in the Dance.
out of one of Jallow, Young, Andre... you figure at least one of those guys is going to step up and be a strong contributor next season. you hope.
Andre had a major role on this team. people keep questioning Holtmann on that but you do see a lot of the little things from Andre. when he's actually hitting his outside shot it's a whole other dimension for the team, unfortunately that was way too rare. despite not being fleet of foot he is one of our more versatile defenders. he grabs a few boards. he makes hustle plays. he is usually a plus on the plus/minus for the team and I think Holtmann paid attention to that and rewarded him with PT. I think a lot of it was based on D, especially when we were switching on screens, Andre is a piece that is very interchangeable. my concern with Andre is that we might already be at WYSIWYG with him. I don't think so, I think we will continue to see improvements with him in every aspect of his game, but I just don't know if there's enough room in his potential for them to be big enough improvements for him to become a great player for us.
Jallow has the highest potential. great athlete, amazing how he swooped in tonight to force that turnover. early in the season the first few games he started he seemed to have this awareness and was making things happen on both ends of the court and we were all stoked. and then his shot disappeared for like 90% of the rest of the season and he couldn't seem to make any sort of offensive plays or even grab a rebound. you want to believe that Jallow's handles and shooting will improve, or that maybe we will start using him to crash the boards, at least, but until those things happen it's really just a hope based on potential with him.
Young is a guy that really became last schollie off the bench as the season wound down. prospectively, he would be a stretch 4 in college. he had an outside shot in HS. we almost never saw that this season. he wasn't very aggressive about trying to score, but as early as next season that has to change and he has to be effective if he wants to carve out any kind of niche on this team. he is not going to log any more minutes as a post substitute with Ledee coming in, and I have seen nothing to make me think he can be a wing for us, so I think he really needs to claim that stretch 4 role. I am rooting for him but it does kind of feel that he might be in danger of remaining behind Andre and getting passed by Ledee next season as far as the forwards go.
I don't know what to say about Potter. I just don't. He is more athletic and moves better than Kaleb, and yet he's not much better on D. Sometimes he hits a shot or two or slams down a dunk with authority and you're like, "Oh, okay, Micah!" Then he goes 3 or 4 games as a non-factor. Sometimes he doesn't play. I think there is such a huge lack of consistency with him in any fashion that Holtmann probably doesn't feel confident about what to do with him. He will be a junior next season. If he can find that consistency, I think he becomes a major factor. If he doesn't, he probably has a role virtually identical to the one he played this season.
I am not going to go in-depth on the freshmen because I have already shared plenty of opinions on them but who can really say at what level they will contribute in their first college season. That and any grad transfer we could potentially get is probably eating into a freshman's PT first.
I will say, Muhammad is a guy I am very confident in because where our defense started to falter as the season wound down is exactly where a guy like Muhammad will come in, day one, and improve the team. He is an elite perimeter defender and I believe he will start based on that. Even if we get some grad transfer PG good enough to push CJ to off-guard, then I think we play three guards with Muhammad the third. Washington and Ahrens represent investments in our future offense but we might not see much of the returns next season. Ledee will be a nice Swiss Army knife in the frontcourt and could help replace some of the loads of rebounding we're losing between KBD and Tate, but I don't see him being a prolific scorer, and I think scoring is going to be HARD for this team next season.
right now based on the guys we can expect to have, I think our 2-deep looks like this:
PG - CJ Jackson, Duane Washington
SG - Luther Muhammad, Duane Washington
F - Musa Jallow, Justin Ahrens
F - Andre Wesson, Jaedon Ledee
PF - Kaleb Wesson, Micah Potter
Potentially Young beats out Ledee for those forward minutes behind Andre. But Ledee is a high-level rebounder in HS and if that translates at all to college, we might need him more, unless Young is hitting corner 3s for us.
there is also a very real possibility that Ledee becomes a major factor for us in the post for defensive and rebounding reasons. if he plays more minutes there as Kaleb relief or alternate, then that frees up some space for Young's role, too (while taking time from Potter's).
but yeah, I look at that roster and, man alive, I am scurred about the offense. I see a ton of potential for them as a defensive unit but the offensive prospects just look ugly. I know we're gonna be looking at grad transfers but I really think it's not smart to expect a ton out of a grad transfer, especially if they're bumping up from a mid-major. you don't have to look much farther than Anthony Lee, or Jaaron Simmons at UM, or Mark Alstork at Illinois, etc...
here was my much too long answer:
Who knows? this season some weren't sure we'd even make the NIT and we ended up beating Michigan, MSU, won at Purdue, finishing 15-3 and second in the B1G and then lost in the Round of 32 to a very good Gonzaga team.
that said, just going off what we can figure at the moment and looking at the players and trying to guess what's reasonable to expect from the guys coming back and the guys coming in... I mean, I have to say it's a rebuild.
I like CJ a lot and I think he gets unfairly maligned sometimes by the fanbase because he's not a pure PG. he really showed me something at the end of this game with how he was fighting and then hitting those FTs. no, he's not and will never be a pure PG. but I think he was a good lead guard for us and might be a really good one for us next season as a senior. that said, he has no identifiable/experienced help at the position next season. Dakich was a serviceable back-up and Tate often had games where he had more assists than CJ. I look at Washington and Muhammad's games and, yeah, we didn't have a complete backcourt this season and I don't think we do next season, either, unless Holtmann can get a grad transfer PG who can really play.
I am pretty undecided on Kaleb. I just question how much he can improve on the defensive end. Can he get to that place where he can play adequate D without fouling? He is an asset in terms of some of his skills, I especially like how he can pass out of the post. He's a mediocre rebounder and sometimes a poor finisher down on the block, a lot of it just having to do with his complete lack of athleticism. He's got good hands and some moves, though, so...? I think he really needs to continue working on getting in the best shape he can. I don't think he can become the impact post player we need him to be if he can't move well enough to defend without fouling and/or Holtmann has to keep subbing him out for defensive reasons. He had some good games this season but he was a pretty miserable liability in the Dance.
out of one of Jallow, Young, Andre... you figure at least one of those guys is going to step up and be a strong contributor next season. you hope.
Andre had a major role on this team. people keep questioning Holtmann on that but you do see a lot of the little things from Andre. when he's actually hitting his outside shot it's a whole other dimension for the team, unfortunately that was way too rare. despite not being fleet of foot he is one of our more versatile defenders. he grabs a few boards. he makes hustle plays. he is usually a plus on the plus/minus for the team and I think Holtmann paid attention to that and rewarded him with PT. I think a lot of it was based on D, especially when we were switching on screens, Andre is a piece that is very interchangeable. my concern with Andre is that we might already be at WYSIWYG with him. I don't think so, I think we will continue to see improvements with him in every aspect of his game, but I just don't know if there's enough room in his potential for them to be big enough improvements for him to become a great player for us.
Jallow has the highest potential. great athlete, amazing how he swooped in tonight to force that turnover. early in the season the first few games he started he seemed to have this awareness and was making things happen on both ends of the court and we were all stoked. and then his shot disappeared for like 90% of the rest of the season and he couldn't seem to make any sort of offensive plays or even grab a rebound. you want to believe that Jallow's handles and shooting will improve, or that maybe we will start using him to crash the boards, at least, but until those things happen it's really just a hope based on potential with him.
Young is a guy that really became last schollie off the bench as the season wound down. prospectively, he would be a stretch 4 in college. he had an outside shot in HS. we almost never saw that this season. he wasn't very aggressive about trying to score, but as early as next season that has to change and he has to be effective if he wants to carve out any kind of niche on this team. he is not going to log any more minutes as a post substitute with Ledee coming in, and I have seen nothing to make me think he can be a wing for us, so I think he really needs to claim that stretch 4 role. I am rooting for him but it does kind of feel that he might be in danger of remaining behind Andre and getting passed by Ledee next season as far as the forwards go.
I don't know what to say about Potter. I just don't. He is more athletic and moves better than Kaleb, and yet he's not much better on D. Sometimes he hits a shot or two or slams down a dunk with authority and you're like, "Oh, okay, Micah!" Then he goes 3 or 4 games as a non-factor. Sometimes he doesn't play. I think there is such a huge lack of consistency with him in any fashion that Holtmann probably doesn't feel confident about what to do with him. He will be a junior next season. If he can find that consistency, I think he becomes a major factor. If he doesn't, he probably has a role virtually identical to the one he played this season.
I am not going to go in-depth on the freshmen because I have already shared plenty of opinions on them but who can really say at what level they will contribute in their first college season. That and any grad transfer we could potentially get is probably eating into a freshman's PT first.
I will say, Muhammad is a guy I am very confident in because where our defense started to falter as the season wound down is exactly where a guy like Muhammad will come in, day one, and improve the team. He is an elite perimeter defender and I believe he will start based on that. Even if we get some grad transfer PG good enough to push CJ to off-guard, then I think we play three guards with Muhammad the third. Washington and Ahrens represent investments in our future offense but we might not see much of the returns next season. Ledee will be a nice Swiss Army knife in the frontcourt and could help replace some of the loads of rebounding we're losing between KBD and Tate, but I don't see him being a prolific scorer, and I think scoring is going to be HARD for this team next season.
right now based on the guys we can expect to have, I think our 2-deep looks like this:
PG - CJ Jackson, Duane Washington
SG - Luther Muhammad, Duane Washington
F - Musa Jallow, Justin Ahrens
F - Andre Wesson, Jaedon Ledee
PF - Kaleb Wesson, Micah Potter
Potentially Young beats out Ledee for those forward minutes behind Andre. But Ledee is a high-level rebounder in HS and if that translates at all to college, we might need him more, unless Young is hitting corner 3s for us.
there is also a very real possibility that Ledee becomes a major factor for us in the post for defensive and rebounding reasons. if he plays more minutes there as Kaleb relief or alternate, then that frees up some space for Young's role, too (while taking time from Potter's).
but yeah, I look at that roster and, man alive, I am scurred about the offense. I see a ton of potential for them as a defensive unit but the offensive prospects just look ugly. I know we're gonna be looking at grad transfers but I really think it's not smart to expect a ton out of a grad transfer, especially if they're bumping up from a mid-major. you don't have to look much farther than Anthony Lee, or Jaaron Simmons at UM, or Mark Alstork at Illinois, etc...
