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Game Thread The Game 2012: tOSU 26, TSUN 21 (final)

Discussion in '2012 Football Season Capsule' started by bukIpower, Nov 26, 2011.

  1. gmen6981

    gmen6981 Just livin' the dream.....a bad, bad dream.

    Good Morning Buckeye Nation.
    I wish a very happy and safe Thanksgiving to all!'s 5:10 am and Michigan still sucks!
  2. ysubuck

    ysubuck Be water my friend.

    Turkey is in the oven.

    Fuck Michigan.
  3. cincibuck

    cincibuck You kids stay off my lawn!

    You put Hoke in your oven? At least we know what the stuffing is...

    Let's start this holiday off the right way: :oh:
  4. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Still Calculating Buckeye DSC... Staff Member Bookie


    No explanation of DSA this week. If you don't know what it is or how it works, this post is just another snowflake in a blizzard of posts about this game. It's a BP thing, you wouldn't understand.

    Those of you still reading might remember that DSA was extended two weeks ago to include something that was called, for lack of a better name, "rigidity". It measures how differential statistics are compiled. Teams that beat up on lesser opponents but struggle against the best teams (Wisconsin) have a negative rigidity, while teams that have few blow outs but take care of business against the better teams on their schedule (Ohio State) have a positive rigidity.

    Both DSA and Rigidity numbers were calculated after Wisconsin's game against Indiana, but were not posted because I learned long ago that people don't want to see stats if they're bad news. Long story short: Old-fashioned DSA predicted a 1-5 point victory for Wisconsin last week. In fact, Wisconsin's DSC (DSO divided by DSD) was significantly higher than Ohio State's last week (2.032 to 1.775). That big a difference usually spells trouble.

    Rigidity changed the calculation though:
    1. Rigidity predicted that Ohio State should have been able to move the ball better than they did against Wisconsin. Urban himself has said that they buttoned it up to avoid turnovers and that they should have fed Carlos more. This, to me anyway, vindicates the rigidity numbers.
    2. Rigidity predicted that Wisconsin would be able to move the ball on the ground against the Buckeyes, but that they would score less than DSA predicted. Both of these held true.
    3. Having had two weeks to tweek the numbers, I came upon a way to use rigidity to adjust the score calculation. The score for the Wisconsin game predicted by this method? 21-14 OSU
    Admittedly, this method misses the score at the end of regulation by 7 points; but referring back to #1 above, I believe the buttoned up offense and the Run and Hyde yards that were left on the field actually vindicate the rigidity methodology. Ohio State should have scored at least one touchdown more in regulation. Oh well.

    As for this week, once again old-fashioned DSA is not all that pretty.
    • TSUN's DSC is 1.922, while OSU's has fallen to 1.773
    • Taking each team's scoring offense times the other team's DSD predicts a 26-23 Buckeye victory.
    • Taking each team's scoring defense times the other team's DSO predicts a 30-27 loss.
    The rigidity adjustments however, have even more to say about this game than about the Wisconsin game:
    • Both teams should be able to move the ball between the twenties
    • TSUN should struggle in the red-zone
    • OSU, not so much
    Before I provide the Ridgity Adjusted prediction I need to say that I do NOT believe that the numbers below reflect what will actually happen on Saturday. TSUN's rigidity numbers, especially on offense, are partially a product of Gardner's insertion at a point in the schedule where they have played ONLY cellar-dwellers up to now. This fact suggests that TSUN will score more than the prediction below suggests. As for the prediction for OSU's score: I have a hard time believing it myself, but I can't give a rational reason why it should be adjusted downward. If only because of the nature of the rivalry, my gut says OSU is unlikely to come within 10 points of the prediction below.
    Rigidity Adjusted DSA prediction

    Buckeyes: 47
    Weasels: 19


    As mentioned in the disclaimer, I do not believe that OSU will beat TSUN by 4 touchdowns. I have been over-analyzing games with numbers for decades; and I can honestly say that this is the first time that my calculations are more optimistic than my gut. My calculations are usually more accurate than my gut, and I hope that's the case here.

    Go Bucks
  5. Coqui

    Coqui Senior

    I don't think it will happen, but I can see it. I don't think Michigan will be able to stop up more often than not. I figure we score on all drives but one. (I can see being held to FGs though.) I see Michigan getting their scores early on, but being shut out after that (or held only to FGs).

    No matter what, I see us scoring 30+. How much beyond that, depends on if our receivers have the dropsies, and the playcalling involved. I just haven't seen anything that gives me the idea they can stop Hyde/Smith from running. I'm assuming they're going to game plan for Miller like Wisconsin did, but they won't have the mass to do it effectively.

    If we tackle solidly, they have no one even remotely like Ball, we stop them from scoring more than two TDs. The injury to Touissant takes out a three headed monster and leaves Robinson and Gardner to account for in the option game (I don't think their backup RB will do anything) The way Simon and Hankins have pursued the edge, it's going to be hard for them to move....especially if Shazier's missile is as accurrate as it has been the past few games.
  6. Onebuckfan

    Onebuckfan classof76

    Michigan does not have their inside running game if Bryant, Shazier and Sabino over. Gardner has not faced quality corners yet, either. If D continues to step-up, we win easily.
  7. buckeyeintn

    buckeyeintn Senior

    Hoke fit in your oven? Wow. Did your oven come from a large pizza bakery?
  8. Is it Saturday yet?
  9. Drubuck

    Drubuck What time is it?

    It's Thanksgiving Day and Michigan still sucks. Have a great filling day of Turkey and make sure you drink to much and tell a Meatchicken fan to go [censored] themselves. And an IO for cincibuck. Can't leave eachother hanging this week fellas.
  10. Yertle

    Yertle Pounding out aggression, turns into obsession

    Didn't your calculations predict a 2 TD minimum walk last week? I guess you're suggesting that your gut felt like we'd win by MORE than 2 TD's... or I misread your post... which is possible.

    I love the analysis, but the human factor nearly screwed us against Bucky. Just win, baby.
  11. Coqui

    Coqui Senior

    playcalling last week was uncharacteristic as well though.
  12. Yertle

    Yertle Pounding out aggression, turns into obsession

    Rumor is that Jerry Dinardo is lobbying to move the OSU/Michigan game earlier in the year to minimize its importance. Can someone get this asshat a pink slip please? He's the scourge of the BTN. Actually, he has "Mark May Syndrome". Just sore that his ass will forever be swollen from the beatings he took from both schools... just like MM will forever be a hater due to his 72-0 curb stomping his Panthers took in the shoe. HAHAHAHA! Suck it, May! Your sorry ass team couldnt get a tackle when we played only 8 players on a punt return.
  13. Jaxbuck

    Jaxbuck I hate tsun

    Of all the elements that would go into that decision being made, I have to think Dinardo's voice carries about as much weight as mine does.
  14. Yertle

    Yertle Pounding out aggression, turns into obsession

    I'm not saying I'm concerned he'll be successful. Just saying he's an asshat.
  15. IronBuckI

    IronBuckI Calmer than you are.

    He said as much on Big Ten Football...and Beyond. I actually do agree with the crux of his argument, that divisional games should be played the last week of the season in order to prevent any type of consecutive week matchups, and to have the divisions in doubt until the final week of the season. However, I only agree with that argument if the expansion of the Big Ten puts tOSU and TSUN in the same division moving forward.

    I also think that the last week of the regular season should be two weeks prior to the CCG. That way it lessens the chances of a hangover from an emotional win in The Game.

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