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Game Thread tOSU at Illinois, Nov 16, 12 ET, ESPN

Discussion in '2013 Football Season Capsule' started by BB73, Apr 8, 2013.

  1. HorseshoeFetish

    HorseshoeFetish Silver Bullet Supporter

    Didn't he flash a big Kenny G grin right after?
     
  2. LordJeffBuck

    LordJeffBuck Illuminatus Emeritus Staff Member

    A few thoughts....

    1. There were five big scoring plays in the game, four by Ohio State (Hyde's two runs, Miller's run, and Roby's pick six) and one by Illinois (the punt return). Take out those five plays, and the score would have been 33-28. Here's another way to look at it: Illinois was four mistakes away from winning the game. I understand that good teams make big plays, but the Buckeyes needs to be more consistent in all phases of the game.

    2. Bradley Roby's pick six was the second of his Buckeye career, and his fifth total defensive touchdown (two interceptions, two blocked punts, one fumble recovery). The two pick sixes ties a Buckeye record (seven others have accomplished the feat, the most recent being Malcolm Jenkins). Although the official record book is silent, I assume that the five total TD's is a Buckeye record for a defensive player. If anyone has any information on this, please post it here.

    3. Ohio State recorded its first safety since the Ohio game in 2010.

    4. Carlos Hyde had touchdown runs of 51 and 55 yards on consecutive plays. Those runs were the second and third longest of his Buckeye career (the longest was a 63-yard TD run against Nebraska in 2011). EDIT: Is 106 yards a Buckeye record for most yards on consecutive carries?

    5. On the other side of the coin, Hyde suffered his first negative-yard rush of the season, when he was stuffed for a two-yard loss on a third-and-1 play late in the second quarter.

    6. Braxton Miller must lead CFB in unforced fumbles. He had two more yesterday, one of which resulted in a turnover.

    7. I'm glad that the Buckeyes played Wisconsin early, as the Badgers are peaking right now. Wisconsin scored 51 points and rolled up 676 yards while holding Indiana's high-powered offense (43 ppg, 527 ypg) to 3 points and 224 total yards.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2013
  3. HorseshoeFetish

    HorseshoeFetish Silver Bullet Supporter

    Man I love waking up Sunday morning after a win. Say what you want about Illinois, IMO those kids deserve better coaching/play calling. They may actually be an example of why the BIG is tougher than people give it credit for(or it just follows my agenda). They held their own against a PAC preseason inner circle jerk contender Washington only losing by 10 points. That was after just destroying one of the better teams it would seem in the AAC. You know the one that ORD likes. They just can't beat anybody in the BIG is all. Don't forget they have scholarships too.

    As far as our Buckeyes are concerned, how can anyone bitch about another win? Did they hit the field a little cocky? Maybe, but how many teams have you seen lose over the years for doing that exact same thing? I've seen plenty myself. This team didn't, and were never in danger of doing so. On top of that were some little things that seemed hell bent on derailing the Buckeyes yesterday. I mean travelling with less linebackers, Carlos isn't starting, Bosa goes down, Braxton goes down, Jack goes down, turtles look like squirrels, and yet the Buckeyes win by 25 going away. Hell if Braxton could have gotten a better read on that wind it may have been a 46 point win.

    So find a reason to complain if it's what pleases you. My coffee and I are doing just fine knowing that these kids can beat anyone in the country.
     
  4. Dryden

    Dryden Sober as Sarkisian Staff Member Tech Admin

    This is not hyperbole. Rewatched the 1st Q this morning and Illinois moved the ball with relative ease on two of their first three possessions before Scheelhaase 86'ed the drives forcing the ball into double coverage. Ohio State made the plays, but the Illini did what they could to hand OSU a 21-0 lead right out of the gate.
     
    Fungo Squiggly likes this.
  5. Steve19

    Steve19 Watching. Always watching. Staff Member

    That is not the point, and I don't really want to discuss this any further. The point is that the late touchdowns will be discounted in the computers, hurting that part of the BCS score. They will help, a bit, in keeping us at the same place on the pollsters dance cards.

    The fact that ESPiN is also blasting Alabama and Baylor for looking bad also helps. I will be stunned if Baylor doesn't close the distance on, or pass, Ohio State.
     
  6. Buckeye86

    Buckeye86 I do not choose to discuss it

    It seems silly to worry about since there are still three weeks of football left to play before it matters.
     
    AuTX Buckeye likes this.
  7. BUCKYLE

    BUCKYLE Washed

    What do you mean, discounted in the computers?
     
  8. Steve19

    Steve19 Watching. Always watching. Staff Member

    Several of the computer models place lower weights on offensive statistics including scores, when a team is already ahead by a few touchdowns in the late minutes of a game.

    For example, Sagarin's Wikipedia page says, "Therefore, a football team that wins a game by a margin of 7-6 is rewarded less than a team that defeats the same opponent under the same circumstances 21-7, but a team that wins a game by a margin of 35-0 receives similar ratings to a team that defeats the same opponent 70-0. This characteristic has the effect of recognizing "comfortable" victories, while limiting the reward for running up the score." (my emphasis)
     
  9. Buckeye86

    Buckeye86 I do not choose to discuss it

    Sagarin has Ohio State #8 and two-loss Wisconsin, who you will recall was defeated by Ohio State, at #5.

    He also has two other two-loss teams (Stanford and Arizona State) over OSU.

    His methodology is obviously a total joke so once again, is it really worth worrying about?
     
  10. MaxBuck

    MaxBuck 2014 National Champions!

    Sagarin's methodology is in no way a "total joke," as many Vegas bettors will attest to. But it sure isn't foolproof, as its output relative to the Buckeyes proves. Sometimes an excellent model provides bullshit results, like it did here.
     
    muffler dragon likes this.
  11. dav713

    dav713 Junior

    Margin of victory is not used in the BCS computers. Sagarin has a few models, and the one that does not take into account score is the one that counts for the BCS (aka PURE_ELO).

    In the model that counts, Pure ELO, OSU is 5th (FSU, Alabama, NIU, Baylor, OSU). Not exactly sure how NIU with the 137th strongest schedule gets ranked ahead of OSU...but no team with a loss is ahead of OSU in his BCS poll

    edit, link: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
     
    kujirakira and Buckeye86 like this.
  12. Buckeye86

    Buckeye86 I do not choose to discuss it

    So yeah, still a joke.
     
  13. MaxBuck

    MaxBuck 2014 National Champions!

    Let me add a few comments about this game.

    1. The ball takes funny bounces for the Buckeyes in Champaign-Urbana. Always has, and this year was no exception.

    2. Illinois is winless in the B1G, but they're no Purdue. Scheelhaase is a good player.

    3. Alabama struggled mightily against a Mississippi State team that isn't a lot better than Illinois.

    4. We won.
     
  14. BayBuck

    BayBuck Buckeyes are best

    I think you are mis-stating Sagarin's methodology here, which uses a diminishing returns principle, and so may not weight all winning points equally, but still does rate 60-35 higher than 47-35. I don't think he's going in and subtracting points scored in the last X minutes of a game.

    But that's for his Predictor model anyway: his Pre-ELO doesn't use scores at all.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2013
    BUCKYLE likes this.
  15. kujirakira

    kujirakira Senior

    Was just about to point that out.
    Sagarin has also generally under-rated us for whatever reason.
    His site seems to be the most-used and referenced of the computers; but it's also the most "wtf" imo (followed closely by Massey).
    The issue I take with those 2 is they're attempting to beat the spread more than create an objective ranking. I'd be very interested to see how they'd actually fair against the spreads historically. I have a feeling it wouldn't be very well. Betters can swear by them, but I know betters that swear by their lucky underwear. It's quite convenient that Sagarin's past ratings are only available for the "final" after bowl games. It says a lot that they remove all the ones in-between games; so that all you're left with is a predictor with no games left to play to test that prediction. It'd be interesting to see what his ratings predicted for the scoreline of Clemson - FSU and other marquee matchups this year.
    What makes it worse, the BCS then ties their hands behind their backs and gets a computation which doesn't take scorelines into account... which results in an even more skewed ranking.

    One of the things that would put NIU above us is their win over Eastern Illinois. Yes, you read that correctly. Apparently Sagarin awards a significant amount of "bonus points" to a team which has beat another otherwise undefeated team. So, for example, Stanford still gets a lot of bonus points for being Oregon's only loss. If Oregon were to lose again, they'd lose those bonus points. FSU also receives bonus points for being Clemson's only loss. If not for the PAC joke in the desert, we'd have bonus points for Wisconsin.
    I'm guessing there are some other "bonus point" situations inserted in there which are also affecting NIU and able to overcome their woeful schedule, but I really don't what they'd be.
     

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