The #12 Ohio State Buckeyes (19-4, 8-4)
vs.
The #16 Michigan State Spartans (19-7, 7-5)
_____
Wednesday, February 22 - 8:00 p.m.
<p><img align=right width=210 height=210 src="http://www.buckeyeplanet.com/gallery/files/3/transmichiganstateii8pn.gif">MICHIGAN STATE - Official Site of Michigan State Athletics - Four games remain, and the conference tournament looms large on the horizon. After two thrilling victories in which Buckeye shooters were simply lethal (.521 versus Michigan and Illinois), the two most recent outings have featured nothing of the sort. Having hit just seven of their last forty three point attempts (.175, if you're counting), the popular maxim "Live by the three, die by the three," finally has some amount of relevance to the circumstances. This is not to say that the season has been irreparably derailed. As abysmal as the Northwestern game was and as painful as the Wisconsin loss still is, this team remains a mere half game out of first place in the conference, and with the way the teams above us fared (Texas, Florida, Tennessee and West Virginia all dropped one), staying at or right around #12 in the polls is not inconceivable. EDIT: We are, in fact, still twelfth in the Coaches' Poll. These are the fortunate circumstances that give the rest of the season a very positive glow. Such optimism notwithstanding, Wednesday's trip to East Lansing will be a critical test of this team's character. It's an opportunity to not only build our tournament resumé, but also to show the conference and the nation that we are not subject to prolonged funks--that we can, and will, re-assert ourselves as a physically and mentally dominant contender. Michigan State, since they escaped Value City Arena with that double-OT win, has had a bit of a mixed run. They're just 5-3 over that stretch, though it is important to note that all three losses came on the road. The Spartans are now 15-1 at home on the season, the single loss being a three-point heartbreaker to powerhouse Gonzaga. That's sort of the way it has gone in the Big Ten this year. The top teams have been defending their home floors with a fury, and even bottom-half squads like Minnesota and Penn State have collected quality wins on their turf. It is for that very reason that this upcoming game carries such weight. Like the Wisconsin game (only more so), a win is another feather in our cap--a cap that's already looking pretty dandy. As much as I would love to see this program crack the top ten, I want first and foremost for us to march into the Breslin Center on Wednesday and regain the swagger that seemed entirely absent in Saturday's debacle of a win. I think both of these teams are at a point where they know they have to do something special to take control of the conference. It will be interesting to see which one takes the reins and makes that happen. Here are the Spartans:vs.
The #16 Michigan State Spartans (19-7, 7-5)
_____
Wednesday, February 22 - 8:00 p.m.
<p><img align=left width=75 src="http://www.buckeyeplanet.com/gallery/files/3/MSU_brown.jpeg" border="1" Hspace="10" Vspace="0">Junior guard Shannon Brown (6-4, 205) was the key component in the Spartans' January victory at the Schott. He led them in scoring with 20 points, hit the team's only two three point buckets, and his late poke > steal > breakaway dunk was a game-altering type of play. Always a great scorer, the aspects of his game that he needed to improve upon this year (outside shooting and A/TO ratio) have gotten markedly better. His stats, of course, are oustanding. 18.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, .505 FG%. More importantly, though, Brown has become an all-around contributor. As he has taken on a more integral role in the offense, his turnovers have gone up (first on the team with 68), but he has made up for it with greater assist and steal numbers. The match-up with Je'Kel is crucial, presuming that's how things go. Kel has slipped back into another mini-slump (one of his last eleven from long range), but he continues to play with passion and tenacity, especially on the defensive end of the floor. Brown has the edge in athleticism, but Foster has proven countless times that he has the will power to overcome such a disadvantage. The former McDonald's All-American does and will command attention on offense, and should he end up checking Kel, we'll need to employ those high screens to create open looks. Brown is too quick and too savvy for us to let him roam free on defense. If we can knock him around with picks and screens, I think there's hope of disrupting his scoring.
<p><img align=left width=75 src="http://www.buckeyeplanet.com/gallery/files/3/MSU_ager.jpeg" border="1" Hspace="10" Vspace="0">Senior guard Maurice Ager (6-5, 202), in contrast, was probably the main reason why that last game was so close. He was 1 of 11 from the field with just two points after entering the game at a 20+ ppg clip. Since, he's been a sub-.400 shooter, and has not looked like the same player that he was through MSU's first 14 games. When he's not scoring in bunches, Ager becomes a vastly less valuable player. He's definitely a gifted rebounder, but his passing skills are suspect and he tends to get tunnel vision with the ball sometimes. A bit like Wisconsin's Alando Tucker in that sense, Ager has games periodically where he'll go, say, 1 of 11 (or 5 of 19 versus Wisconsin, or 3 of 19 versus Penn State). If we can catch him on an off night again, I like our chances, but we can't count on him to beat himself. He's still the team's leading scorer at 18.5 ppg, and while his shot has been dicey of late, he's still a senior and an all-conference caliber guard. Like with Brown, we're going to have to gameplan defensively to keep Ager out of rhythm. If we let those two start playing off of each other, we're in for a long night. Sullinger will need to be physical with him and have a big night on the boards if we're going to run with this team.
<p><img align=left width=75 src="http://www.buckeyeplanet.com/gallery/files/3/MSU_davis.jpeg" border="1" Hspace="10" Vspace="1">Davis is what separates this team from all the other squads that have two dynamic scorers and nobody talented enough in the middle to draw defenses inside (see Wisconsin). This isn't to say that you can't succeed without a dominant big man, but the senior center has been an anchor for the Spartans all season long. He has just one game in which he did not post double-digit scoring numbers, and his 13 double-doubles are presumably the most in the conference (Brunner has 11). At 6'11" and 270 pounds, I envisioned him suffocating Terence that last game, but that was not so much the case. Dials had 19 and 10 with three steals. Needless to say, such a performance would be very welcome Wednesday night. If I had one wish, I would give the big lug the ability to effectively pass out of double teams. It seems like something he should be working on, and maybe he has been. In either case, he could end up being the lynchpin in this game, particularly on defense. When the Spartans absolutely need two, they're very likely giving it to Davis. Dials - who does have a tendency to step up in big games - has to stay out of foul trouble while remaining physical on defense. It's a lot to ask.
Sophomore point guard Drew Neitzel (6-0, 175) is coming off the best game of his college career, I'd say--a 13 point, 12 assist effort in the rout of Michigan in which he committed just a single turnover. He and Butler are turning into the Dee Brown and Jeff Horner of the future in this conference, and obvious Greg Oden excitement aside, I think there are very few match-ups as intriguing as Butler/Neitzel. As the fourth option (as always), it's important that we not let him hurt us on offense. He's very capable of having nice, efficient scoring outings that can make up for Ager or Brown missing the mark too many times. The final piece is the football crossover Matt Trannon (6-6, 227). Were this a hockey team, Trannon would be the 'enforcer'. Three years in the MSU football conditioning program has turned him into a beast, and he couples that physical toughness with good rebounding and high-efficiency offense. He had his best game of '05-'06 against us (14 points, 11 boards), and presents a significant challenge for Sylvester. Trannon will play Syl with a lot of muscle which, considering his nagging back injury, is something the coaching staff will have to keep an eye on. This is assuming, of course, that Syl plays at all. EDIT: Trannon is out indefinitely with a broken jaw. In his place, we will probably see a lot of #41, frosh forward Marquise Gray (6-8, 228). You never like to see a player hurt, but this is good news for Sylvester if finds his way into the game.
After the Northwestern game, it would surprise me not at all to see Izzo throw a little 1-3-1 zone at us. Hell, maybe a lot. The success of such a scheme hinges (in my estimation) on the status of Sylvester. The embattled forward has had his ups and downs this year, and has certainly heard about it from the fans, but his absence last game exposed the fact that this Buckeye team is not overflowing with particularly gifted passers. It's something that Je'Kel has struggled with throughout his time here, and Butler - for all his talent - lacks the size necessary to make the kinds of passes that could have torn the Wildcats' zone to pieces. There was a three or four minute stretch in the second half Saturday during which Dials should have had about ten points, but nobody on the perimeter had the ability or the confidence to get the ball to him. Here's hoping the patron saint of lower back muscles blesses #40 with the strength and flexibility to endure another 40 minutes of banging with Trannon, who's probably the man responsible for this recurring pain to begin with. Should Syl end up unable to go, I would expect them to go small and give Ron Lewis the lion's share of the open minutes. Asking Lew to guard either Ager or Brown for any lengthy period is not something I'd like to have happen, but clearly we'd have little choice.
In the press conference after game one versus MSU, Matta was quoted as saying, "It's not a game that makes or breaks our season. Just like any win or any loss, you have to look at it quickly and move on. We have to find a way to get back." It's a good way of evaluating a loss, to be sure. And I think the sentiment was probably similar after the loss in Madison. I feel greedy sometimes, looking at games like this one coming up and thinking, "Boy, if we could just win this one, people would really think we were good." I think it's less about greed, though, and more about wanting the best for this team. These guys have worked their tails off to fight through all the scandalous nonsense of the past few years and put themselves in serious tournament contention. I think the most appealing byproduct of winning Wednesday night is not the probable boost in the polls, but rather the confidence such a victory would instill in this team. Knowing that, in spite of things not really falling our way over the past week, we are still an elite team, capable of beating anyone on any given night. This game is 'a way to get back'.
Projected starters:
Ohio State
F - Matt Sylvester
C - Terence Dials
G - J.J. Sullinger
G - Je'Kel Foster
G - Jamar Butler
Michigan State
F - Matt Trannon
C - Paul Davis
G - Maurice Ager
G - Shannon Brown
G - Drew Neitzel
My prediction: OSU 67 - MSU 64
Up next, Michigan...
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