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As of a little over an hour ago Flossie is nothing but a tropical storm (barely)...it really weakened overnight. It's 6:15 am right now and totally calm (rained a little earlier). Looks like it's zero threat...
 
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ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST RECENT MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THESE WINDS WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 35 KT...AND THAT
REMAINS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. AT PRESENT...THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS COVER ONLY A FAIRLY SMALL AREA ABOUT 50 TO 75 MILES TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH NOT OVER THE CENTER...AND
THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE
SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF GUIDANCE. AT LANDFALL...ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT...RATHER THAN A WIND EVENT.

ALTHOUGH THE LAST COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE A SHORT-TERM
WESTWARD JOG...A MORE REPRESENTATIVE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
300/12. A CONTINUATION OF THIS BASIC MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
LANDFALL TOMORROW MORNING...WITH THE TRACK CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 26.5N 95.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 27.4N 97.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 28.4N 99.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/1200Z 29.3N 100.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Advisory Archive


Erin appears to be slightly strengthening.
 
Last edited:
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TS Dean is just short of being a HUrricane and it still has a long ways to go before hitting the US, but, when looking at the first post in this thread, most of the models tend to follow that path, which mirrors what Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 did.

The difference is that Hurricane Gilbert did it nearly a month later in the season, so the waters were a bit warmer at the time.

Needless to say, anyone in the Less Antillies and the entire Gulf Coast need to watch Dean carefully.
 
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Air Force Hurricane Hunter

060920-F-2533P-0096.jpg
 
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 171754
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF HURRICANE DEAN TO 110 KNOTS BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WIND
DATA OF 124 KNOTS JUST MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT. THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
ACCORDINGLY. THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE INTERMEDIATE 2 PM AST
PUBLIC ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1745Z 14.8N 63.6W 110 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.0N 65.5W 115 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 69.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 72.3W 125 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 75.5W 130 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 82.0W 130 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W 100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 94.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

For reference:

vis.jpg
 
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Dean has put on 40 MPH in winds and the pressure has dropped over 30 mB....Dean is now much stronger than Katrina was at Landfall....

000
WTNT34 KNHC 180004
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...CORRECTED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED TO 135 MPH...

...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES...
1290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...
410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 135
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 946
MB...27.93 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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000
WTNT64 KNHC 180135
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
930 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007


DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


So to recap, Dean has added nearly 50 MPH in wind speed and the pressure has dropped over 40 millibars.....

Not quite a record, but pretty damned impressive.
 
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Ok to recap...

Dean went to the south and largely spared Jamaica from a direct hit. Jamaica mainly experienced sustained winds no higher than 100 MPH with higher gusts and a lot of rain. There's damage, but nothing they haven't had before down there. Now all eyes are on Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 202033
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS ARE PREVENTING THE RECEIPT OF MOST DATA FROM
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A
1930Z VORTEX FIX WAS RECEIVED. AT THAT TIME THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
WAS 918 MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 151 KT. EARLIER IN
THE FLIGHT...A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 123 KT WAS OBSERVED. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 127 KT AT 18Z. BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 130 KT. ALL OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS
OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. A 15Z MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A PARTIAL
OUTER EYEWALL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO
INDUCE ANY WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. DEAN IN EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TRACK
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTWARD-
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED SOUTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
SOUTHWARD. ALL THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TAKE THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
OF DEAN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL
MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE
TRACK AFTER FINAL LANDFALL. I DO NOT ACTUALLY EXPECT A WELL-
DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION TO EXIST AT 72 HOURS...BUT A POINT IS
PROVIDED SO THAT IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT THE TRACK ENDS IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.2N 84.2W 130 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 18.5N 86.7W 140 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 19.3N 90.2W 75 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/0600Z 20.2N 93.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 97.0W 95 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 103.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED



vis.jpg


At this point it doesn't appear that a US landfall is likely, but there is a pretty decent chance of another storm forming in the Atlantic within the next few days.
 
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