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What's wrong and will it be fixed vs UM?

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jwinslow

jwinslow

A MAN OF BETRAYED JUSTICE
Staff member
Tourney Pick'em Champ
While fans contributed to the MSU loss and are already grinding towards victory, we should also analyze the players on the field.


Table of contents

I. What Is Not Wrong with OSU

II. What Is Wrong with OSU

III. Weaknesses That May Persist

IV. Flaws That May Be Fixed

V. What Will Happen?


I. What's not wrong with Ohio State

1. Talent - This team is loaded (other than DT and WR depth). Only Alabama is equal nationally.

2. Disharmony - This team gets along quite well. The playcalling is an issue but that's primarily a losing problem. Had they won ugly yet again against MSU (21-14), the morale would have been fine.

3. Scheme - They have the system and have most of the personnel (enough to be pretty good). They need better execution, timing (playcalls) and line play. Ironically all of these were weaknesses earlier in the Herman tenure (thru Sep 2014 thru Sep 2014), though I do think they miss him.
 
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II. What's wrong with Ohio State

1. Inconsistency - flimsy pocket, penalties, not sustaining perimeter blocks, missed throws. The first 3 were non-issues in the postseason and the latter was barely one.

2. Units > talent - teams win, not talent. On talent, they're top-2 and well ahead of the rest, but they're only a fringe top-12/15 "team." It's not really disharmony, they just aren't disciplined and consistent (frankly 2014 wasn't either until Indy, though better than this)

3. Pass protection - interior pass pro is woeful, RT Farris can be a turnstile and even elite NFL prospect Decker has regressed. These ongoing struggles caused OSU to completely abandon the pocket against a great pass rush from MSU. A wise thing to account for, but an overly cowardly approach to do across the board.

4. Soft belly on D - OSU has a great 3-tech in Washington. They do not have a nose tackle or depth. They seemed to improve from bad to average last month, but that was the competition. Unlike DT, McMillan can be a very good MLB but is still young and inconsistent. He played poorly vs MSU, after some good improvements since his last bad outing (PSU).

5. Perimeter blocking - Elliott is an elite RB but he needs help with sustaining blocks to spring him beyond the second level. Worse yet, they can't run their pop passes and counters to constrain the defense. They terrorized teams with Jalin Marshall, often without him even touching it, because he was so consistent and deadly that defenses froze thinking and watching whether he got the ball. Meanwhile OSU was already a few steps into a different play or hole and running for chunk yards. Now those plays often gain little to no yardage and certainly do not terrify and freeze defenses on fakes.

6. Play calling - A major criticism of Beck at Nebraska was that he'd find a good play and then it would disappear. That's what Elliott complained about, and frankly while his decision was disrespectful he didn't come close to a complete and proper critique of the playcalling mistakes. There were a lot of great constraint plays that Herman ran to keep the defense honest. Not all of them worked but defenses had to account for them all. Beck hasn't even called them this year, at least not with any frequency.

7. Confidence - This team suffered severely from a multitude of things. Cardale presented a different and more durable style of offense but his inconsistency has always been a drawback.

8. Depth issues - they have loads of young talent. None of it is ready, other than maybe a few nickelbacks (and that's only recently). They desperately miss Evan Spencer, Devin Smith and the injured Noah Brown and Corey Smith. Three of them were ferocious blockers and devin got better (and also terrified secondaries).

9. Momentum - OSU was set way back with the struggles by Cardale the OL and the WRs. They were finally getting back on track against Rutgers and PSU. Then JT made a huge mistake and honestly derailed all of what they built up. I'm not sure if they would have been a title contender this year (though they have the talent to be dominant) but they should have regained their stride to become the class of the league (with strong efforts from the last 3 squads to upset that quest instead of OSU stumbling down the finish line).
 
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III. What OSU weaknesses will remain against UM?


1. Soft interior - UM is not great at running the ball but they are dedicated to shoving it right down the opponent's throat. I'm not expecting their tailbacks to run wild but I think Houma could really soften them with those tough inside runs against the weakest part of the OSU defense. That said, I never would have dreamed that the usually useless Terry wildcat sets would work let alone O'Connor runs and all of the tailbacks too, so clearly my expectations aren't a good predictor.

2. Finding WRs downfield - UM will press and take away the underneath passes from OSU. I think OSU has the athletes and matchups to get open on intermediate routes (10-15 yds) and deep routes (30+), especially given UM's struggles with depth and coverage from their LBs, but will Barrett have time and a comfortable pocket to find them? I'm not sure if Michigan will bring torrential pressure off the edge but I think they'll get enough and pair it with a collapsing interior pocket to make things difficult. That will come down to lane discipline and whether they play as a unit or freelance to go for sacks and leave running lanes behind them.

3. Peppers out of the backfield - Jabrill is an athletic and disruptive safety on defense (with a really high ceiling) but if OSU can protect Barrett, they can stress him in coverage with Braxton or Samuel (though I'm hardly confident of them executing and exploiting that). Where he terrifies me is as a weapon out of the backfield. He is so dynamic and quick that he erases pursuit angles and magnifies the mildly bad ones. Josh Perry is a top-3 round pick and McMillan is a pretty promising MLB, but neither has any business covering Jabrill. They can't really turn to Darron Lee either (at least not as a shadow) because he is crucial to their defensive versatility and ability to remain in a run stopping defense with 3 receivers split out wide.
 
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IV. What struggles may disappear this week?

1. OSU establishing the run - OSU will not abandon Elliott twice (especially not 8 carries on one drive and a unbelievable 4 in the rest). Furthermore, MSU has a very stout DL across the board and very athletic and physical LBs to stuff the run. Michigan has a better defense overall but without Glasgow, their nose tackle and interior LB play leaves them a lot more vulnerable inside.

2. Weather - OSU should not have been that cowardly, but it was hideous for the first 2.5 qtrs, by which time the tone and momentum had been established. The forecast looks much better for this week. Much is made of the offensive woes but I think the sloppy conditions contributed a lot to unusually sloppy tackling by OSU's defense. They aren't an elite unit but they don't usually give up so much YAC and that happened all day.

3. Barrett's feet - Michigan has struggled a lot with average QBs with mobility due to their suspect LB play. Barrett is on another level (or should be). For all of Sparty's defensive struggles, their weakness was not their ability to keep up athletically or instinctually (anticipate, read, react, etc) with a mobile QB. Their struggles were downfield, which were never really tested (about the only time they did, Braxton was wide open for six). Michigan represents a very different type of back 7 in my opinion. They have very good coverage from their secondary (unlike MSU) with LBs that struggle with pursuit angles, lane discipline, shedding blocks, blitzing and proper drops in coverage (all of which are opposite from MSU). Barrett obviously needs to return to form immediately but I think the struggles of the UM linebackers (especially if Gedeon plays very little) could contribute to his success.
 
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V. Who do I expect to win?

I have no idea. Below is the rollercoaster of emotions and personal expectations throughout this calendar year:

Preseason thru Early September - OSU win, close

Mid Sep thru Mid October - UM win, close

Mid October thru Late October - OSU win, close

Early November till MSU - OSU win, close with a chance to win by 10-17

Now? Pick em, with the home edge and mental edge to Michigan (which I suppose means Michigan, but I'm still not sure)


My head cowardice says 27-24 Michigan.

My heart says 31-28 OSU. This is where I make my stand.
 
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I agree with almost everything you have stated in your posts above and I especially agree with the fact that both of these teams are soft in the middle on defense. The only difference being is that I think Ohio State can take advantage of that technical college's defense because of Elliott where I do not see the technical college having that type of RB.

I would like to say that the above four post are very well thought out and as I stated I agree with almost everything. Kudos!
 
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My 4 decades of watching football teams go through seasons informs me that by the 12th game, you are what you are in terms of strengths and weaknesses. The mental and motivational aspects can change for good or ill, but you are what you are at this point. Perhaps the coaching staff could focus on one weakness this week - say, pass pro - and perform better, but, otherwise, you have to live with your weaknesses. It's the coaches' job through scheme and play-calling to accentuate team strengths and mask weaknesses. Since this staff has won 10/11 this year, I have to assume they are competent at doing that, despite being incompetent last week.
 
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OSUK said:
My 4 decades of watching football teams go through seasons informs me that by the 12th game, you are what you are in terms of strengths and weaknesses. The mental and motivational aspects can change for good or ill, but you are what you are at this point. Perhaps the coaching staff could focus on one weakness this week - say, pass pro - and perform better, but, otherwise, you have to live with your weaknesses. It's the coaches' job through scheme and play-calling to accentuate team strengths and mask weaknesses. Since this staff has won 10/11 this year, I have to assume they are competent at doing that, despite being incompetent last week.
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My previous season of watching college football taught me that collegiate players are very unpredictable. The team that went to Indy transformed into a completely different creature.

That said, I do not expect a massive transformation on Ohio State's part, at least not at DT or OL. I can envision some pretty dramatic changes in how well OSU plays overall because of the different opposition they will face, particularly the Michigan nose tackle, inner linebackers, struggles against dual threat QBs (with much less athleticism) and better weather.
 
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Struggles on theOL has baffled me all year ..no injuries but I don't see any cohesiveness . I think the team would have even better with Cardale or Jt. Not with both. Play calling has been hard to understand all year. Urban had a throw away line about how the QB decision was his and Ed's not Beck's. I wonder if the O ever accepted him because it seemed that Urban weakened him.
 
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I's all on Coach. He panicked and lost his attack mode. Attack mode is who he is as a coach. It's what makes him great.
Still, it almost worked out to being a victory and what would we be saying now if Sparty had turned it over at the end of the game and we had drove down the field to score?
Dantonio gambled on a conservative game plan and won. He could just as easily have lost.
Urban will learn from this because he is constantly learning and willing to change.
 
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jwinslow said:
My previous season of watching college football taught me that collegiate players are very unpredictable. The team that went to Indy transformed into a completely different creature.
Click to expand...

Good point. I guess the way I look at the metamorphosis you describe from last year is that it fell into the category of mental and motivational. The weaknesses were on the defensive side of the ball, and had mainly revolved around the tendency to get gashed in the running game. There wasn't a talent problem, but more losing focus at times, and maybe not trusting teammates, not playing with confidence, etc. Losing JT and having to go with Cardale was a source of concern, but I believe the adversity the week of the Michigan game in the form of JT's injury, but more importantly, the death of a teammate drew the team together, made them care about each other, and helped them immensely with the mental and emotional factors. They elevated their play, not by eliminating weaknesses, but by being closer, trusting each other more, having more confidence in each other and the coaches, etc.

I think that adversity gave them the edge that allowed them to play at a championship level. If there was one thing missing on this team it was that edginess. They played hard, but we saw last year there was another level they could go to, and we never saw it this year. This caused some fans and media to describe them as "bored" or "uninspired". I guess if it takes tragic injuries and deaths to get that edge, I'd rather them not have it, but I do believe that is the main reason why they did what you described. FWIW.
 
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