A little post mortem on the 2016 Indians, with some comments on Game 7 of the World Series:
1. This Indians team was in essentially the same position as the 2014-15 Cavs, with three major injuries that arguably kept them from winning a championship. This team is probably a World Series champ with Brantley, Carrasco, and Salazar all healthy (maybe even with just Carrasco healthy).
2. Entering 2017, the Indians have arguably the best rotation in the AL (Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Bauer, Tomlin). All of the starters are locked up until at least 2018:
Kluber - guaranteed through 2019, club options for 2020 and 2021
Carrasco - guaranteed through 2018, club options in 2019 and 2020
Salazar - arbitration eligible trough 2020
Bauer - arbitration eligible through 2020
Tomlin - guaranteed 2017, club option 2018
3. The Indians also have the best back end bullpen in the AL with Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, and each of them is locked up through 2018. Dan Otero is a quality mid-inning guy and he's locked up until 2019. However, the bullpen could use a quality match-up lefty, and possibly an upgrade over set up man Bryan Shaw (see below).
4. Lindor, Kipnis, Ramirez, Santana, Chisenhall, and Perez give the Indians a solid core of position players, and Guyer and Almonte are quality reserves. Santana has a club option for 2017 at $12,000,000.00. Given that Santana is in the prime of his career (age 30) and had career highs in home runs (34) and RBI (87), together with an excellent .865 OPS (30th best in MLB), it seems a no-brainer that the front office will exercise that option.
All the rest of the core position players are locked up through at least 2018:
Chisenhall - arbitration eligible through 2018
Guyer - arbitration eligible through 2018
Kipnis - guaranteed through 2019, club option in 2020
Almonte - arbitration eligible through 2020
Perez - arbitration eligible through 2020
Ramirez - arbitration eligible through 2020
Lindor - arbitration eligible through 2021
5. To recap, eight pitchers (Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Bauer, Tomlin, Otero, Miller, Allen) and seven core position players (Kipnis, Lindor, Ramirez, Chisehall, Perez, Almonte, Guyer) who are locked up through at least 2018. Look for the Indians to be in World Series contention for at least the next two seasons.
6. Another player who is locked up long term is catcher Yan Gomes. His contract numbers are:
2017: Guaranteed at $4,500,000
2018: Guaranteed at $5,950,000
2019: Guaranteed at $7,000,000
2020: Club option at $9,000,000
2021: Club option at $11,000,000
Three year ago, Gomes seemed like a future star with a favorable contract. Now Gomes is approaching age 30 and his future is in jeopardy due to declining production (.167 BA, .201 OBP, .327 slug in 2016), injuries, and the emergence of Roberto Perez as a solid defensive catcher who is still on the pre-arbitration portion of his rookie contract. Despite what was said at the time, the Tribe desperately wanted to upgrade the catcher position and that's why they went hard after Jonathan Lucroy. Could Gomes be shipped out in the offseason, thereby freeing up a bit more money for the big bat that this team so desperately needs in the middle of the line up?
7. Coco Crisp (age 37), Mike Napoli (age 35), and Michael Martinez (age 34) are at the end of the line and probably should be upgraded. Believe it or not, Martinez is still arbitration eligible until 2019, and that (along with his supposed versatility) might be enough to keep him in the plans of the budget-conscious Indians.
8. In the offseason, the Indians need to find a quality defensive center fielder and power bats in left field and first base. Those issues would largely be solved if Rajai Davis can continue to play at the same level (an iffy proposition at age 36), and Michael Brantley can recover from chronic shoulder problems (always an unknown). Davis is an unrestricted free agent but he could probably be re-signed for something close to his 2016 salary of $5,250,000 and Brantley is locked up until 2018 (guaranteed in 2017, club option for 2018).
If Davis leaves in free agency and Brantley can't recover, then the Indians are looking at a starting outfield of Brandon Guyer (LF), Tyler Naquin (CF), and Lonnie Chisenhall (RF), with Abraham Almonte in reserve. Needless to say, that outfield would not be a strength of the team.
9. Corey Kluber and Andrew Miller are arguably the best starter and best reliever in the AL. However, the Cubs hitters were able to adjust to Kluber and Miller after seeing so much of the two pitchers in such a short amount of time. In Game 7, the Cubs were a combined 10 for 28 (.357) and scored 6 runs against the Tribe's two best pitchers.
10. Bryan Shaw is one of the least-liked Indians in recent memory. After giving up two runs in the top of the 10th inning, Shaw suffered the loss in Game 7. Even though Kluber and Miller were equally bad last night, it is fitting that Shaw will largely bear the burden of blowing this opportunity for the championship that has eluded the Indians for 68 years and counting.
Shaw is a serviceable set up man (career 3.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .237 BAA) who can probably be re-signed on the cheap ($2,750,000 in 2016), but maybe it's time for the Indians to move on from him (he is a free agent in 2017).
11. On August 16th, Mike Napoli was at the end of a 16-game hitting streak. On that date (110 games), he was hitting 111 for 417 (.266) with 29 home runs and 85 RBIs. He was hitting home runs at the rate of one for every 14.4 at bats, and RBIs at the rate of one every 4.9 at bats
In 55 games since August 16th (regular season and playoffs), Napoli hit 31 for 192 (.161) with 6 home runs and 19 RBIs. He hit home runs and RBIs at less than one-half of his previous rate, namely one home run every 32 at bats, and one RBI every 10.1 at bats.
Napoli did have career highs in home runs (34) and RBI (101) in 2016, but he did so in a career high 557 at bats (59 more than his previous high of 498 set in 2013). The question with Napoli is this: Did he simply run out of gas late in the season, or is his engine blown for good? Now 35 years old, Napoli should be considered at best a situational player (350 to 400 AB a year). Yes, Napoli is still great in the clubhouse, but there's no way the Indians should re-sign him for anything more than the $7.5 million that he made in 2016.
12. On August 19th, Tyler Naquin hit his famous inside-the-park walk-off home run, a moment that defined the Indians' improbable success during the 2016 season. At that time, Naquin was batting 74 for 234 (.316) with 15 doubles, 5 triples, 14 home runs, and 40 RBI.
Since August 19th (regular season and playoffs), Naquin hit 25 for 110 (.227), with 5 doubles, 0 triples, 0 home runs, and 5 RBI. In addition, his slugging percentage dropped from .603 (an excellent number; David Ortiz led MLB with .620 in 2016) down to .273 (notoriously light-hitting SS Mark Belanger had a career slugging percentage of .280). In addition, Naquin's strike out rate increased from one every 2.89 at bats (really bad, Mark Reynolds territory) up to one every 2.44 at bats, which is truly awful.
Naquin looked like a rising star during the first two-thirds of the season, and his emergence allowed the Indians to trade perhaps their top overall prospect (OF Clint Frazier) to the Yankees as part of the package for Andrew Miller. Now Naquin looks lost both at the plate and in the outfield. Can Naquin turn his young career around and become the Indians' every day center fielder, or was he simply a flash in the pan?
13. Terry Francona made several brilliant moves during the playoffs. Subbing Michael Martinez for Coco Crisp in Game 7 wasn't one of them. With the Indians attempting a desperate rally, Martinez ended the World Series with a weak grounder to third base. What would Coco (.269, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI in 26 postseason at bats) have done with that final at bat...?
1. This Indians team was in essentially the same position as the 2014-15 Cavs, with three major injuries that arguably kept them from winning a championship. This team is probably a World Series champ with Brantley, Carrasco, and Salazar all healthy (maybe even with just Carrasco healthy).
2. Entering 2017, the Indians have arguably the best rotation in the AL (Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Bauer, Tomlin). All of the starters are locked up until at least 2018:
Kluber - guaranteed through 2019, club options for 2020 and 2021
Carrasco - guaranteed through 2018, club options in 2019 and 2020
Salazar - arbitration eligible trough 2020
Bauer - arbitration eligible through 2020
Tomlin - guaranteed 2017, club option 2018
3. The Indians also have the best back end bullpen in the AL with Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, and each of them is locked up through 2018. Dan Otero is a quality mid-inning guy and he's locked up until 2019. However, the bullpen could use a quality match-up lefty, and possibly an upgrade over set up man Bryan Shaw (see below).
4. Lindor, Kipnis, Ramirez, Santana, Chisenhall, and Perez give the Indians a solid core of position players, and Guyer and Almonte are quality reserves. Santana has a club option for 2017 at $12,000,000.00. Given that Santana is in the prime of his career (age 30) and had career highs in home runs (34) and RBI (87), together with an excellent .865 OPS (30th best in MLB), it seems a no-brainer that the front office will exercise that option.
All the rest of the core position players are locked up through at least 2018:
Chisenhall - arbitration eligible through 2018
Guyer - arbitration eligible through 2018
Kipnis - guaranteed through 2019, club option in 2020
Almonte - arbitration eligible through 2020
Perez - arbitration eligible through 2020
Ramirez - arbitration eligible through 2020
Lindor - arbitration eligible through 2021
5. To recap, eight pitchers (Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Bauer, Tomlin, Otero, Miller, Allen) and seven core position players (Kipnis, Lindor, Ramirez, Chisehall, Perez, Almonte, Guyer) who are locked up through at least 2018. Look for the Indians to be in World Series contention for at least the next two seasons.
6. Another player who is locked up long term is catcher Yan Gomes. His contract numbers are:
2017: Guaranteed at $4,500,000
2018: Guaranteed at $5,950,000
2019: Guaranteed at $7,000,000
2020: Club option at $9,000,000
2021: Club option at $11,000,000
Three year ago, Gomes seemed like a future star with a favorable contract. Now Gomes is approaching age 30 and his future is in jeopardy due to declining production (.167 BA, .201 OBP, .327 slug in 2016), injuries, and the emergence of Roberto Perez as a solid defensive catcher who is still on the pre-arbitration portion of his rookie contract. Despite what was said at the time, the Tribe desperately wanted to upgrade the catcher position and that's why they went hard after Jonathan Lucroy. Could Gomes be shipped out in the offseason, thereby freeing up a bit more money for the big bat that this team so desperately needs in the middle of the line up?
7. Coco Crisp (age 37), Mike Napoli (age 35), and Michael Martinez (age 34) are at the end of the line and probably should be upgraded. Believe it or not, Martinez is still arbitration eligible until 2019, and that (along with his supposed versatility) might be enough to keep him in the plans of the budget-conscious Indians.
8. In the offseason, the Indians need to find a quality defensive center fielder and power bats in left field and first base. Those issues would largely be solved if Rajai Davis can continue to play at the same level (an iffy proposition at age 36), and Michael Brantley can recover from chronic shoulder problems (always an unknown). Davis is an unrestricted free agent but he could probably be re-signed for something close to his 2016 salary of $5,250,000 and Brantley is locked up until 2018 (guaranteed in 2017, club option for 2018).
If Davis leaves in free agency and Brantley can't recover, then the Indians are looking at a starting outfield of Brandon Guyer (LF), Tyler Naquin (CF), and Lonnie Chisenhall (RF), with Abraham Almonte in reserve. Needless to say, that outfield would not be a strength of the team.
9. Corey Kluber and Andrew Miller are arguably the best starter and best reliever in the AL. However, the Cubs hitters were able to adjust to Kluber and Miller after seeing so much of the two pitchers in such a short amount of time. In Game 7, the Cubs were a combined 10 for 28 (.357) and scored 6 runs against the Tribe's two best pitchers.
10. Bryan Shaw is one of the least-liked Indians in recent memory. After giving up two runs in the top of the 10th inning, Shaw suffered the loss in Game 7. Even though Kluber and Miller were equally bad last night, it is fitting that Shaw will largely bear the burden of blowing this opportunity for the championship that has eluded the Indians for 68 years and counting.
Shaw is a serviceable set up man (career 3.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .237 BAA) who can probably be re-signed on the cheap ($2,750,000 in 2016), but maybe it's time for the Indians to move on from him (he is a free agent in 2017).
11. On August 16th, Mike Napoli was at the end of a 16-game hitting streak. On that date (110 games), he was hitting 111 for 417 (.266) with 29 home runs and 85 RBIs. He was hitting home runs at the rate of one for every 14.4 at bats, and RBIs at the rate of one every 4.9 at bats
In 55 games since August 16th (regular season and playoffs), Napoli hit 31 for 192 (.161) with 6 home runs and 19 RBIs. He hit home runs and RBIs at less than one-half of his previous rate, namely one home run every 32 at bats, and one RBI every 10.1 at bats.
Napoli did have career highs in home runs (34) and RBI (101) in 2016, but he did so in a career high 557 at bats (59 more than his previous high of 498 set in 2013). The question with Napoli is this: Did he simply run out of gas late in the season, or is his engine blown for good? Now 35 years old, Napoli should be considered at best a situational player (350 to 400 AB a year). Yes, Napoli is still great in the clubhouse, but there's no way the Indians should re-sign him for anything more than the $7.5 million that he made in 2016.
12. On August 19th, Tyler Naquin hit his famous inside-the-park walk-off home run, a moment that defined the Indians' improbable success during the 2016 season. At that time, Naquin was batting 74 for 234 (.316) with 15 doubles, 5 triples, 14 home runs, and 40 RBI.
Since August 19th (regular season and playoffs), Naquin hit 25 for 110 (.227), with 5 doubles, 0 triples, 0 home runs, and 5 RBI. In addition, his slugging percentage dropped from .603 (an excellent number; David Ortiz led MLB with .620 in 2016) down to .273 (notoriously light-hitting SS Mark Belanger had a career slugging percentage of .280). In addition, Naquin's strike out rate increased from one every 2.89 at bats (really bad, Mark Reynolds territory) up to one every 2.44 at bats, which is truly awful.
Naquin looked like a rising star during the first two-thirds of the season, and his emergence allowed the Indians to trade perhaps their top overall prospect (OF Clint Frazier) to the Yankees as part of the package for Andrew Miller. Now Naquin looks lost both at the plate and in the outfield. Can Naquin turn his young career around and become the Indians' every day center fielder, or was he simply a flash in the pan?
13. Terry Francona made several brilliant moves during the playoffs. Subbing Michael Martinez for Coco Crisp in Game 7 wasn't one of them. With the Indians attempting a desperate rally, Martinez ended the World Series with a weak grounder to third base. What would Coco (.269, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI in 26 postseason at bats) have done with that final at bat...?
Last edited:
Upvote
0
