3yardsandacloud
Administrator Emeritus
2007 Penn State Nittany Lions Game Preview
written by: BB73, BuckeyeRyn, Buckeyeskickbuttocks, Bucklion, DaddyBigBucks, Hubbard, jwinslow, OSUBucks22, and 3yardsandacloud
Preface
Well, the Buckeyes and College Gameday are headed to Happy Valley this Saturday for a night game in Beaver Stadium. There are several numbers that are relevant to the upcoming battle. We will try very hard not to make any mistakes in this preview, since when talking about Penn State nobody wants to even think about using any Whiteout.
42 - The number of seasons that JoePa has been the head coach at Penn State. He has broken Amos Alonzo Stagg's mark of 41 seasons for the most seasons as head football coach at a major college. Stagg was at the University of Chicago from 1892 through 1932, and all but the first 4 of those years were spent in the Big Ten Conference (or Western Conference from 1896 to 1899, then the Big Nine until 1917). After leaving the Big Ten and giving up football in 1940, Chicago is now a Division III program.
324 - The number of games that JoePa had won after Zack Mills led a 29-27 comeback victory over tOSU, during Jim Tressel's first year as tOSU's head coach (2001). That gave JoePa the major college coaching record, breaking a tie with Bear Bryant. He has since been passed by Bobby Bowden, since the NCAA allows Bowden to count his 31 victories at Howard College (now 1-AA Samford University).
369 - JoePa's current win total, only 1 behind Bowden. Jim Tressel is third among current FBS (1-A) coaches with 205, and Frank Beamer has 204 pending his Thursday night game against Boston College.
1 1/2 inches - The distance that Tony Johnson's feet were clearly in-bounds by, late in regulation time in the 2002 overtime loss to Iowa. After that, JoePa famously chased down the referee leaving the field, although whether that was faster than last year's jaunt to the locker room in the 'Shoe is uncertain. That Iowa play was instrumental in getting the Big-10 to adopt instant replay. The 1 1/2" distance may also indicate the thickness of Joe's glasses, but he did see that play more clearly than the referees.
1 1/2 feet - The approximate distance that Mike McCloskey was out-of-bounds when he caught a 15-yard pass near the 2-yard line from Todd Blackledge with 9 seconds left against #2 Nebraska in 1982. For some reason, Joe didn't protest this call. Penn State scored on the next play to win 24-21, and went on to win their first national title (Nebraska finished #3 at 12-1). Yes, that's the same Todd Blackledge eating his way across college campuses on CBS. The team that finished #2 that year was SMU, led by the 'Pony Express' backfield of Eric Dickerson and Craig James (the guy seen on ABC with Doug Flutie).
548 - The total number of major college games coached by Stagg (per ncaa.org), including his stints at Springfield College and Pacific. This week's game will be #496 for JoePa, so he may want to hang around for 4 more years in order to break that mark. But since Bobby Bowden's only 5 games behind in this category, he'll have to keep going until Bowden quits to retain it.
80 - Joe Paterno's actual age. If he coaches in a bowl game after his birthday on December 21st, he'll be stolling the sidelines with rolled-up pants at the age of 81.
3-2-1 - That's the all-time bowl game record for the Nittany Lions, not counting games coached by JoePa.
25-12-2 - Their overall bowl record including his games. JoePa's 22 bowl wins are the most ever; Bobby Bowden is next with 20.
11-11 - The all-time record between tOSU and Penn State. The Nittany Lions won the first 4 games, which were all in Columbus, so tOSU has never led in the series. This includes Penn State losing all 7 games played in the 'Shoe since they joined the Big 10 in 1993.
34-39-7 - Ohio State's all-time record on the road against ranked teams
6-4 - Ohio State's record on the road against ranked teams under Tressel
64-9-1 - Ohio State's all-time record when ranked #1 in the AP poll.
4-9 - Penn State's record all-time when facing a number 1 ranked team.
2 - The number of times that Penn State will have played against a #1 team in Happy Valley. The only other occasion was on November 18, 1989, when the #17 Nittany Lions lost to #1 Notre Dame 34-23. For those wondering if they played a #1 Wolverine team in 1997, TSUN was ranked #4 when they beat a #2 PSU team 34-8 on November 8th. They assumed the top spot in the next poll since that was the same day that Nebraska needed OT to win at Missouri, after tying the game on a kicked ball that was caught with no time remaining. 1997 was the last year before the BCS, so they didn't play in the bowls; TSUN ended up #1 in the AP that year, while the Coaches poll ended up voting Nebraska #1 as a going-away present for Tom Osborne. Has anybody heard what Tom Osborne's doing lately?
1 - The number of times it takes a Buckeye fan to hear the Lion's roar blasting out of the speakers in Beaver Stadium in order to hate it.
42 - The number of seasons that JoePa has been the head coach at Penn State. He has broken Amos Alonzo Stagg's mark of 41 seasons for the most seasons as head football coach at a major college. Stagg was at the University of Chicago from 1892 through 1932, and all but the first 4 of those years were spent in the Big Ten Conference (or Western Conference from 1896 to 1899, then the Big Nine until 1917). After leaving the Big Ten and giving up football in 1940, Chicago is now a Division III program.
324 - The number of games that JoePa had won after Zack Mills led a 29-27 comeback victory over tOSU, during Jim Tressel's first year as tOSU's head coach (2001). That gave JoePa the major college coaching record, breaking a tie with Bear Bryant. He has since been passed by Bobby Bowden, since the NCAA allows Bowden to count his 31 victories at Howard College (now 1-AA Samford University).
369 - JoePa's current win total, only 1 behind Bowden. Jim Tressel is third among current FBS (1-A) coaches with 205, and Frank Beamer has 204 pending his Thursday night game against Boston College.
1 1/2 inches - The distance that Tony Johnson's feet were clearly in-bounds by, late in regulation time in the 2002 overtime loss to Iowa. After that, JoePa famously chased down the referee leaving the field, although whether that was faster than last year's jaunt to the locker room in the 'Shoe is uncertain. That Iowa play was instrumental in getting the Big-10 to adopt instant replay. The 1 1/2" distance may also indicate the thickness of Joe's glasses, but he did see that play more clearly than the referees.
1 1/2 feet - The approximate distance that Mike McCloskey was out-of-bounds when he caught a 15-yard pass near the 2-yard line from Todd Blackledge with 9 seconds left against #2 Nebraska in 1982. For some reason, Joe didn't protest this call. Penn State scored on the next play to win 24-21, and went on to win their first national title (Nebraska finished #3 at 12-1). Yes, that's the same Todd Blackledge eating his way across college campuses on CBS. The team that finished #2 that year was SMU, led by the 'Pony Express' backfield of Eric Dickerson and Craig James (the guy seen on ABC with Doug Flutie).
548 - The total number of major college games coached by Stagg (per ncaa.org), including his stints at Springfield College and Pacific. This week's game will be #496 for JoePa, so he may want to hang around for 4 more years in order to break that mark. But since Bobby Bowden's only 5 games behind in this category, he'll have to keep going until Bowden quits to retain it.
80 - Joe Paterno's actual age. If he coaches in a bowl game after his birthday on December 21st, he'll be stolling the sidelines with rolled-up pants at the age of 81.
3-2-1 - That's the all-time bowl game record for the Nittany Lions, not counting games coached by JoePa.
25-12-2 - Their overall bowl record including his games. JoePa's 22 bowl wins are the most ever; Bobby Bowden is next with 20.
11-11 - The all-time record between tOSU and Penn State. The Nittany Lions won the first 4 games, which were all in Columbus, so tOSU has never led in the series. This includes Penn State losing all 7 games played in the 'Shoe since they joined the Big 10 in 1993.
34-39-7 - Ohio State's all-time record on the road against ranked teams
6-4 - Ohio State's record on the road against ranked teams under Tressel
64-9-1 - Ohio State's all-time record when ranked #1 in the AP poll.
4-9 - Penn State's record all-time when facing a number 1 ranked team.
2 - The number of times that Penn State will have played against a #1 team in Happy Valley. The only other occasion was on November 18, 1989, when the #17 Nittany Lions lost to #1 Notre Dame 34-23. For those wondering if they played a #1 Wolverine team in 1997, TSUN was ranked #4 when they beat a #2 PSU team 34-8 on November 8th. They assumed the top spot in the next poll since that was the same day that Nebraska needed OT to win at Missouri, after tying the game on a kicked ball that was caught with no time remaining. 1997 was the last year before the BCS, so they didn't play in the bowls; TSUN ended up #1 in the AP that year, while the Coaches poll ended up voting Nebraska #1 as a going-away present for Tom Osborne. Has anybody heard what Tom Osborne's doing lately?
1 - The number of times it takes a Buckeye fan to hear the Lion's roar blasting out of the speakers in Beaver Stadium in order to hate it.
Date and Time
Date: Saturday, October 27th, 2007
Time: 8:00 EDT Kick-off
Location: Beaver Stadium (University Park, PA)
Constructed: 1960 (Renovated in 2001)
Seating Capacity: 107,282 (Originally 66,210)
Playing Surface: Natural Grass
Events: Student "White Out"
Broadcast Information:
TV Broacast: ABC: Brent Musburger (Play-by-play), Kirk Herbstreit (Analysis), and Lisa Salters (Sideline)
ESPN College Gameday on Location: host Chris Fowler and analysts Lee Corso and Kirk Herbstreit
ESPN Radio's College GameDay on Location: host Scott Reiss and analysts Todd McShay and Trevor Matich
Radio Broadcast: Ohio State Radio Network (WBNS 1460TheFan in Columbus): Paul Keels (Play-by-play), Jim Lachey (Analysis), and Marty Bannister (Sideline)
Satelite Radio: Sirius Radio 123 & XM Radio 197
Time: 8:00 EDT Kick-off
Location: Beaver Stadium (University Park, PA)
Constructed: 1960 (Renovated in 2001)
Seating Capacity: 107,282 (Originally 66,210)
Playing Surface: Natural Grass
Events: Student "White Out"
Broadcast Information:
TV Broacast: ABC: Brent Musburger (Play-by-play), Kirk Herbstreit (Analysis), and Lisa Salters (Sideline)
ESPN College Gameday on Location: host Chris Fowler and analysts Lee Corso and Kirk Herbstreit
ESPN Radio's College GameDay on Location: host Scott Reiss and analysts Todd McShay and Trevor Matich
Radio Broadcast: Ohio State Radio Network (WBNS 1460TheFan in Columbus): Paul Keels (Play-by-play), Jim Lachey (Analysis), and Marty Bannister (Sideline)
Satelite Radio: Sirius Radio 123 & XM Radio 197
2007 Penn State Nittany Lions Offensive Preview
Returning starters: 8
Despite the extra press that a few other defenses get (one in Baton Rouge comes to mind), Ohio State continued to establish themselves as one of the nation's most dominant units as they smacked around one of the country's most prolific rushing attacks last week. In dominating the Spartans defensively, they kept their grasp on the top spot in the polls and this week they make a trip to Happy Valley, a place they've had their share of difficulty, with some occasional and important success. For a while this looked like it could turn out to be "just another game", but the Nittany Lions have been playing quite a bit better of late, winning 3 in a row (and 19 of their last 20 at home), highlighted by a king-sized pasting of once highly-regarded Wisconsin. It's been an odd season for the Lions, as they pounded 3 horrible teams to start the year, the followed that increased anticipation with their annual loss to Michigan (in Ann Arbor) and what now is increasingly looking like a weak loss at Illinois in a game they more or less gave away. Then at 0-2 they could have folded, but instead have run off 3 straight, including beating teams badly at home that they have had trouble with in recent seasons (Iowa, Wisconsin) and winning their first conference road game of the season last week against a game Indiana squad. At 3-2 they stand 3rd in the conference with 3 to play, and with winnable games in their last 2 contests (Purdue, at Michigan State), they still have outside hope of sharing a crown or at least sneaking into a second spot tie, but with the Buckeyes and Michigan sitting in front of them with zero conference losses each through half the season, it looks like the Lions are once again relegated to playing for the bronze. Furthermore, with only one team likely headed to the BCS from the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions' season seems to once again boil down to the Ohio State game. Win, and they would have supreme confidence, could run the rest of the table, finish 6-2 (10-2), and go to at least a good bowl, if not a marquee one. Lose, and they are 3-3 (6-3) and could probably do no better than the Outback Bowl...again. So, batten down the hatches and secure those rails (but only temporarily, on the off chance a new monument is needed), it's time for Penn State/Ohio State in primetime, in the Valley of the Lion.
The Penn State offense has had flashes of effective play, but for the most part this season has been a disappointment in big games. It is especially troubling to Lions fans that the quarterback play looks like it will prevent their uber-talented group of wideouts from reaching their full potential. Penn State does rank in the top 50 nationally in total yards per game at 419.5, but barely, ranking 49th. They rank a respectable 31st nationally running the ball at 186.3 YPG, a bit of a surprise given the upheaval in their backfield this season. Passing the ball, they Lions have been inconsistent at best, ranking a very disappointing 67th nationally at 219.6 yards a game, borderline criminal for a team with as many good wideouts as the Lions have. They have managed to put up a respectable 33.1 points per game average on the scoreboard (36th), but fell flat in some games, particularly against Michigan. The Lions 1st down rate per game reflects their yardage output (22.3, 40th), and they have surprisingly converted 45.5% of their 3rd downs, which is good for 22nd nationally. So the offense overall has been a mixed bag, and basically lives and dies with the quarterback play, even more so than many offenses do. They have been playing better of late, and looked very good against Wisconsin, but they will get their toughest test of the season this weekend.
Quarterbacks
QB #14 Anthony Morelli (6-4, 232, SR, Penn Hills HS, Pittsburgh, PA)
It's easy to pile on Morelli, and no one does it more than the Penn State faithful. He often shows brief flashes of brilliance with his cannon arm and also can hit a big play downfield even when he isn't playing particularly well. He can also get on a roll for a drive or two as he showed in the games against Iowa, Wisconsin, and Buffalo, where he played well in significant stretches. But he is still maddeningly inconsistent, misses too many open receivers, throws too many interceptions and takes too many sacks. All of those things are also magnified in bigger games, as the Michigan and Illinois contests proved. At one time this season (after 3 games) his TD/INT ratio was 8/1, but he has faltered since. He completed less than 50% of his passes and had a costly fumble against the Wolverines, and he threw 3 costly picks against the Illini despite throwing for almost 300 yards. On the other hand, though he's thrown 3 interceptions the last 3 games, he has managed those games well, thrown for a reasonably high percentage and has been a key to the resurgence of the team to respectability by completing passes for 1st downs and helping to open up the running game as well by throwing more downfield. This will be a make or break game, against the #1 team in the nation, for Morelli and his Penn State legacy. He can at least quiet some of his critics with a big performance, but if he falters again it is not exactly a stretch to suggest that he will not go down in the Nittany Lion history books all that favorably. He has one more chance to slay a giant, and Saturday night we will all see if he is up to the task.
Backing up Morelli is Daryll Clark (#17), a more mobile player who is an entirely different type of QB. He has attempted only 3 passes this season, but did run for a TD against Wisconsin. He also played a bit last year.
QB Rating: D+
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus Ohio State QBs
Morelli (P/R): 147/247 (59.5%), 1739 yards, 13 TDs, 7 INTs, 130.4 rating; 29/-64, 0 TDs
Boeckman (P/R): 120/183 (65.6%), 1546 yards, 18 TDs, 7 INTs, 161.3 rating; 20/-22, 0 TDs
Boeckman has been far from perfect, but he has been solid in his play against all levels of competition so far this season, and he has had stretches where he has played very well. He has completed a high percentage, thrown a lot of TDs, and many of his interceptions have come on deep balls. Morelli has been poor against the bigger teams on the schedule, and it is difficult to see how he will improve upon that against the best defense he will see all year. The Nittany Lion defense is also very good, so Boeckman also will have his work cut out for him. Based on performance, this is a pretty clear edge to the Buckeyes.
Edge: Ohio State
Running Backs
TB #20 Rodney Kinlaw (5-9, 201, SR, Stratford HS, Goose Creek, SC)
FB #38 Dan Lawlor (6-2, 244, SR, Cumberland Valley HS, Mechanicsburg, PA)
Kinlaw, nephew of former Lion All-American Courtney Brown, is a fundamentally solid but unspectacular player who has taken over for the immensely talented but deeply troubled Austin Scott. He has seen significant action all season, but since game 3 against Buffalo, he has put up some good numbers. He gained 129 yards in that game, and has gained at least 66 yards in each game since, including 168 with 2 scores against Iowa and 115 and a score in the demolition of Wisconsin. He also scored last week against Indiana, giving him 4 TDs in the last 3 games. He's not particularly fast, but he is tough for his size and is effective between the tackles. He?s sort of been the overlooked man (Scott and Tony Hunt) on campus for most of his tenure, but he works very hard and after getting the opportunity to take over as "the man", he has done a solid job for the Lions. He won't get Larry Johnson-like numbers of carries, but he will be the primary player in the Lion ground attack Saturday.
The future also appears bright in Happy Valley in the running game thanks to promising freshman backup Evan Royster (#22), who gained over 6000 yards and scored 90 TDs in high school. He seems to possess a good combination of speed and strength that has resulted in some very big production the past 3 weeks. He gained 86 yards against Iowa, hit Wisconsin for 68 yards and a TD in only 8 carries, and then gained 68 with a TD against Indiana. He's carried the ball 36 times and scored twice the past 3 weeks, so expect to see a good dose of him on Saturday in relief of Kinlaw. He is an exciting player and will no doubt carry the Lion rushing attack into the future.
Unlike a lot of teams the Lions had a talented fullback in Matt Hahn who could both run the ball (15 carries, 82 yards, TD) and catch it (9 catches, 47 yards, TD) but unfotunately he was injured against Indiana and will miss the rest of the season. Little-used Lawlor should start in his place.
RB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus Ohio State RBs
Kinlaw: 141/728 yards, 6 TDs, 5.2 YPC; 7 rec/60 yards, 0 TDs, 8.6 YPR
Royster: 45/293 yards, 3 TDs, 6.5 YPC; 2 rec/11 yards, 0 TDs, 5.5 YPR
C Wells: 149/863 yards, 7 TDs, 5.8 YPC; 4 rec/21 yards, 0 TDs, 5.3 YPR
M Wells: 80/270 yards, 2 TDs, 3.4 YPC; 9 rec/49 yards, 1 TD, 5.4 YPR
Saine: 46/245, 2 TDs, 5.3 YPC: 8 rec/84 yards, 1 TD, 10.5 YPR
Wells destroyed the Spartans, upstaging their vaunted ground attack. He has proven to be the go-to back that the Buckeyes will need down the stretch of tough games like this one if Ohio State is going to make a run at an undefeated season. Kinlaw is a solid player who has exceeded expectations and has proven effective since assuming command for the Lions, but Wells is in a different class. The future appears very bright at both schools, where Saine and Royster will probably terrorize defenses for years to come.
Edge: Ohio State
Wide Receivers
WR #2 Derrick Williams (6-0, 203, JR, Eleanor Roosevelt HS, Greenbelt, MD)
WR #3 Deon Butler (5-10, 168, JR, C. D. Hylton HS, Woodbridge, VA)
WR #24 Jordan Norwood (5-10, 172, JR, State College Area HS, State College, PA)
There is no question about the talent of this group...it might just end up being a proverbial "what might have been" situation. Last year they were the first trio in Lion history to all total at least 40 catches. Williams was the most heralded recruit, and as the Buckeyes found out in 2005, he can be used in a variety of ways and is always a danger to make a big play at any time. However, it could be argued that his week in and week out production has failed to live up to the huge expectations he arrived with. He caught 40 passes for 440 yards last year, and is on the same pace this season. Certainly not bad production for a team that distributes the ball pretty evenly amongst the wideouts, but not enough production to put him into the superstar category at receiver, though his punt return skills also need to be taken into consideration for such a designation. He's topped 50 yards receiving only once this season at Illinois, so his production from the receiver position hasn't been all that overwhelming.
Butler and Norwood have both been solid contributors and have made some big plays, and are probably the two best true receivers of the group, giving the Lions one of the deepest units in the country. Butler had 637 yards on 48 catches last season, and is on the same pace again. He has scored only 1 TD, but he has made some important catches this year, particularly on 3rd down. He had a big game against Wisconsin, catching 7 passes for 93 yards and a score. Norwood is also dangerous, and is on pace again to match his 45 catches from a year ago. He has 3 TDs so far, exceeding last season's total already. Both of these players seem to have their good weeks and off weeks (the quarterback play has a lot to do with that), and Butler had 89 yards against Illinois and caught 8 passes for 65 yards and a TD last week against the Hoosiers.
This unit is actually 4-deep as senior veteran Terrell Golden (#4) has also been a big factor in the passing game, especially recently. He has 19 catches so far, including 12 in the last 3 weeks, so he will undoubtedly be a part of the Lion gameplan on Saturday. The secondary has to be careful not to overlook him by concentrating on the other 3 playmakers.
WR Rating: A-
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus Ohio State WRs
Williams: 28 catches, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 9.4 YPR
Butler: 30 catches, 418 yards, 1 TD, 13.9 YPR
Norwood: 30 catches, 381 yards, 3 TDs, 12.7 YPR
Robiskie: 37 catches, 728 yards, 7 TDs, 19.7 YPR
Hartline: 30 catches, 360 yards, 4 TDs, 12.0 YPR
Small: 13 catches, 150 yards, 2 TDs, 11.5 YPR
Robiskie has had the biggest year, and has proven himself to be the playmaker of this group, leading in all major categories. Hartline has also been steadily improving and has been a very good possession-type receiver. The Lions have a distinct advantage in depth, having 4 players that can make a big play or have a big game, depending on how the passing game is going and what the gameplan is. The Buckeyes have the best player, but the Lions get the edge as a unit, based on their four talented and relatively interchangeable parts.
Edge: Penn State
Tight Ends
TE #10 Andrew Quarless (6-5, 252, SO, Uniondale HS, Uniondale, NY)
Quarless is quite an interesting player. He has more size and raw talent than 90% of the TEs out there, yet he always seems to be in the doghouse for something, including dropped passes and missed blocks, and as a result he has struggled and Mickey Shuler (#82) has also gotten quite a bit of playing time, including some starts. Both have good size and can be good blockers. If Quarless can put it all together, he could be a special player and a very difficult matchup for any secondary, but he hasn't caught a pass the last 2 weeks, and it's hard to see him being a huge factor this weekend. Shuler is fundamentally solid in the blocking game and can make an occasional catch.
TE Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus Ohio State TEs
Quarless: 9 catches, 131 yards, 2 TDs, 14.6 YPR
Nicol: 8 catches, 43 yards, 0 TDs, 5.4 YPR
Neither team has gotten much passing production from the TEs. Nicol has been a solid player for the Buckeyes, and Shuler fills a similar role. Quarless is the wild card, in every sense of the word. The Lions may have more raw talent, but the production hasn't resulted.
Edge: Even
Offensive Line
LT #76 Gerald Cadogan (6-5, 313, JR, Portsmouth HS, Portsmouth, OH)
LG #64 Rich Ohrnberger (6-2, 289, JR, East Meadow HS, East Meadow, NY)
C #57 A.Q. Shipley (6-1, 293, SR, Moon Area HS, Coraopolis, PA)
RG #50 Mike Lucian (6-2, 284, SR, Linganore HS, New Market, MD)
RT #73 Dennis Landolt (6-4, 294, JR, Holy Cross HS, Burlington, NJ)
This is a group that's been, with a few exceptions like Levi Brown, by and large fairly pedestrian for several years since Penn State's Big Ten heyday of the mid 90's. This year's crew has seen its share of shifting around, position swapping, and multiple starters, but by and large they have done a competent job, particularly in the running game. This unit is smaller and more agile than previous Lion lines, which have been more of the big and physical variety. Shipley is the leader of the group, having started every game last year en route to being honorable mention all-Big Ten. He has continued his solid play this season and is the leader of the line in the middle. Cadogan started 4 games at guard last year, and has manned the left tackle spot this season. Ohrnberger made 9 starts at guard last year and is another dependable player on the left side. Landolt was the backup to Levi Brown last season and now switches sides and mans the right tackle spot. The right guard position has seen its share of starters this season. Lucian, a converted defensive tackle, is one possibility, but after he suffered a concussion freshman Stefen Wisniewski (#61) made his first start at right guard last week, becoming the first Lion freshman to start on the line since 1999. He could get another start this week. Veteran John Shaw (#78), who has moved from tackle to guard and could also be a factor at the right guard spot, and sophomore Lou Eliades (#77) will both probably also get plenty of action.
OL Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus Ohio State OL
The Lion line has been playing better of late, and does have a few solid players, led in the middle by Shipley. However, they do not have the talent or the depth that the Buckeyes possess.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Offensive Analysis
It's hard to know what to make of this offense. Statistically, they aren't too bad, and Penn State teams general play with solid fundamentals and don't get a lot of silly (pre-snap) penalties. As usual with teams like Penn State, there is talent at the skill positions, especially at receiver, and the running game is solid and effective, if unspectacular because of the lack of a real home run threat. It basically boils down to the play of the line and Morelli, which has resulted in some good performances and also some disasters this season. If the line is playing well, Morelli has an extra second to wait for the A-list wideouts to get open, and the offense can be very effective. If not, or of Morelli is having one of his off games, then the offense is in deep trouble, because the running game doesn't have a Larry Johnson or a Tony Hunt to carry a game by themselves this season. This will be their biggest test, and though they have won impressively at home so far this season, they also made a Michigan defense that had looked absolutely silly for the first 2 weeks look dominant. The crowd will be loud, the players will be amped, the Lions will be confident from their previous performances at home (and especially the last game against Wisconsin), and the legacy of a season they originally had hopes of running the table in probably boils down to winning this game. Will all that be enough? The #1 defense in the country doesn't think so, and will have the chance to prove that Saturday.
Overall Offensive Rating: B-
Despite the extra press that a few other defenses get (one in Baton Rouge comes to mind), Ohio State continued to establish themselves as one of the nation's most dominant units as they smacked around one of the country's most prolific rushing attacks last week. In dominating the Spartans defensively, they kept their grasp on the top spot in the polls and this week they make a trip to Happy Valley, a place they've had their share of difficulty, with some occasional and important success. For a while this looked like it could turn out to be "just another game", but the Nittany Lions have been playing quite a bit better of late, winning 3 in a row (and 19 of their last 20 at home), highlighted by a king-sized pasting of once highly-regarded Wisconsin. It's been an odd season for the Lions, as they pounded 3 horrible teams to start the year, the followed that increased anticipation with their annual loss to Michigan (in Ann Arbor) and what now is increasingly looking like a weak loss at Illinois in a game they more or less gave away. Then at 0-2 they could have folded, but instead have run off 3 straight, including beating teams badly at home that they have had trouble with in recent seasons (Iowa, Wisconsin) and winning their first conference road game of the season last week against a game Indiana squad. At 3-2 they stand 3rd in the conference with 3 to play, and with winnable games in their last 2 contests (Purdue, at Michigan State), they still have outside hope of sharing a crown or at least sneaking into a second spot tie, but with the Buckeyes and Michigan sitting in front of them with zero conference losses each through half the season, it looks like the Lions are once again relegated to playing for the bronze. Furthermore, with only one team likely headed to the BCS from the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions' season seems to once again boil down to the Ohio State game. Win, and they would have supreme confidence, could run the rest of the table, finish 6-2 (10-2), and go to at least a good bowl, if not a marquee one. Lose, and they are 3-3 (6-3) and could probably do no better than the Outback Bowl...again. So, batten down the hatches and secure those rails (but only temporarily, on the off chance a new monument is needed), it's time for Penn State/Ohio State in primetime, in the Valley of the Lion.
The Penn State offense has had flashes of effective play, but for the most part this season has been a disappointment in big games. It is especially troubling to Lions fans that the quarterback play looks like it will prevent their uber-talented group of wideouts from reaching their full potential. Penn State does rank in the top 50 nationally in total yards per game at 419.5, but barely, ranking 49th. They rank a respectable 31st nationally running the ball at 186.3 YPG, a bit of a surprise given the upheaval in their backfield this season. Passing the ball, they Lions have been inconsistent at best, ranking a very disappointing 67th nationally at 219.6 yards a game, borderline criminal for a team with as many good wideouts as the Lions have. They have managed to put up a respectable 33.1 points per game average on the scoreboard (36th), but fell flat in some games, particularly against Michigan. The Lions 1st down rate per game reflects their yardage output (22.3, 40th), and they have surprisingly converted 45.5% of their 3rd downs, which is good for 22nd nationally. So the offense overall has been a mixed bag, and basically lives and dies with the quarterback play, even more so than many offenses do. They have been playing better of late, and looked very good against Wisconsin, but they will get their toughest test of the season this weekend.
Quarterbacks
QB #14 Anthony Morelli (6-4, 232, SR, Penn Hills HS, Pittsburgh, PA)
It's easy to pile on Morelli, and no one does it more than the Penn State faithful. He often shows brief flashes of brilliance with his cannon arm and also can hit a big play downfield even when he isn't playing particularly well. He can also get on a roll for a drive or two as he showed in the games against Iowa, Wisconsin, and Buffalo, where he played well in significant stretches. But he is still maddeningly inconsistent, misses too many open receivers, throws too many interceptions and takes too many sacks. All of those things are also magnified in bigger games, as the Michigan and Illinois contests proved. At one time this season (after 3 games) his TD/INT ratio was 8/1, but he has faltered since. He completed less than 50% of his passes and had a costly fumble against the Wolverines, and he threw 3 costly picks against the Illini despite throwing for almost 300 yards. On the other hand, though he's thrown 3 interceptions the last 3 games, he has managed those games well, thrown for a reasonably high percentage and has been a key to the resurgence of the team to respectability by completing passes for 1st downs and helping to open up the running game as well by throwing more downfield. This will be a make or break game, against the #1 team in the nation, for Morelli and his Penn State legacy. He can at least quiet some of his critics with a big performance, but if he falters again it is not exactly a stretch to suggest that he will not go down in the Nittany Lion history books all that favorably. He has one more chance to slay a giant, and Saturday night we will all see if he is up to the task.
Backing up Morelli is Daryll Clark (#17), a more mobile player who is an entirely different type of QB. He has attempted only 3 passes this season, but did run for a TD against Wisconsin. He also played a bit last year.
QB Rating: D+
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus Ohio State QBs
Morelli (P/R): 147/247 (59.5%), 1739 yards, 13 TDs, 7 INTs, 130.4 rating; 29/-64, 0 TDs
Boeckman (P/R): 120/183 (65.6%), 1546 yards, 18 TDs, 7 INTs, 161.3 rating; 20/-22, 0 TDs
Boeckman has been far from perfect, but he has been solid in his play against all levels of competition so far this season, and he has had stretches where he has played very well. He has completed a high percentage, thrown a lot of TDs, and many of his interceptions have come on deep balls. Morelli has been poor against the bigger teams on the schedule, and it is difficult to see how he will improve upon that against the best defense he will see all year. The Nittany Lion defense is also very good, so Boeckman also will have his work cut out for him. Based on performance, this is a pretty clear edge to the Buckeyes.
Edge: Ohio State
Running Backs
TB #20 Rodney Kinlaw (5-9, 201, SR, Stratford HS, Goose Creek, SC)
FB #38 Dan Lawlor (6-2, 244, SR, Cumberland Valley HS, Mechanicsburg, PA)
Kinlaw, nephew of former Lion All-American Courtney Brown, is a fundamentally solid but unspectacular player who has taken over for the immensely talented but deeply troubled Austin Scott. He has seen significant action all season, but since game 3 against Buffalo, he has put up some good numbers. He gained 129 yards in that game, and has gained at least 66 yards in each game since, including 168 with 2 scores against Iowa and 115 and a score in the demolition of Wisconsin. He also scored last week against Indiana, giving him 4 TDs in the last 3 games. He's not particularly fast, but he is tough for his size and is effective between the tackles. He?s sort of been the overlooked man (Scott and Tony Hunt) on campus for most of his tenure, but he works very hard and after getting the opportunity to take over as "the man", he has done a solid job for the Lions. He won't get Larry Johnson-like numbers of carries, but he will be the primary player in the Lion ground attack Saturday.
The future also appears bright in Happy Valley in the running game thanks to promising freshman backup Evan Royster (#22), who gained over 6000 yards and scored 90 TDs in high school. He seems to possess a good combination of speed and strength that has resulted in some very big production the past 3 weeks. He gained 86 yards against Iowa, hit Wisconsin for 68 yards and a TD in only 8 carries, and then gained 68 with a TD against Indiana. He's carried the ball 36 times and scored twice the past 3 weeks, so expect to see a good dose of him on Saturday in relief of Kinlaw. He is an exciting player and will no doubt carry the Lion rushing attack into the future.
Unlike a lot of teams the Lions had a talented fullback in Matt Hahn who could both run the ball (15 carries, 82 yards, TD) and catch it (9 catches, 47 yards, TD) but unfotunately he was injured against Indiana and will miss the rest of the season. Little-used Lawlor should start in his place.
RB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus Ohio State RBs
Kinlaw: 141/728 yards, 6 TDs, 5.2 YPC; 7 rec/60 yards, 0 TDs, 8.6 YPR
Royster: 45/293 yards, 3 TDs, 6.5 YPC; 2 rec/11 yards, 0 TDs, 5.5 YPR
C Wells: 149/863 yards, 7 TDs, 5.8 YPC; 4 rec/21 yards, 0 TDs, 5.3 YPR
M Wells: 80/270 yards, 2 TDs, 3.4 YPC; 9 rec/49 yards, 1 TD, 5.4 YPR
Saine: 46/245, 2 TDs, 5.3 YPC: 8 rec/84 yards, 1 TD, 10.5 YPR
Wells destroyed the Spartans, upstaging their vaunted ground attack. He has proven to be the go-to back that the Buckeyes will need down the stretch of tough games like this one if Ohio State is going to make a run at an undefeated season. Kinlaw is a solid player who has exceeded expectations and has proven effective since assuming command for the Lions, but Wells is in a different class. The future appears very bright at both schools, where Saine and Royster will probably terrorize defenses for years to come.
Edge: Ohio State
Wide Receivers
WR #2 Derrick Williams (6-0, 203, JR, Eleanor Roosevelt HS, Greenbelt, MD)
WR #3 Deon Butler (5-10, 168, JR, C. D. Hylton HS, Woodbridge, VA)
WR #24 Jordan Norwood (5-10, 172, JR, State College Area HS, State College, PA)
There is no question about the talent of this group...it might just end up being a proverbial "what might have been" situation. Last year they were the first trio in Lion history to all total at least 40 catches. Williams was the most heralded recruit, and as the Buckeyes found out in 2005, he can be used in a variety of ways and is always a danger to make a big play at any time. However, it could be argued that his week in and week out production has failed to live up to the huge expectations he arrived with. He caught 40 passes for 440 yards last year, and is on the same pace this season. Certainly not bad production for a team that distributes the ball pretty evenly amongst the wideouts, but not enough production to put him into the superstar category at receiver, though his punt return skills also need to be taken into consideration for such a designation. He's topped 50 yards receiving only once this season at Illinois, so his production from the receiver position hasn't been all that overwhelming.
Butler and Norwood have both been solid contributors and have made some big plays, and are probably the two best true receivers of the group, giving the Lions one of the deepest units in the country. Butler had 637 yards on 48 catches last season, and is on the same pace again. He has scored only 1 TD, but he has made some important catches this year, particularly on 3rd down. He had a big game against Wisconsin, catching 7 passes for 93 yards and a score. Norwood is also dangerous, and is on pace again to match his 45 catches from a year ago. He has 3 TDs so far, exceeding last season's total already. Both of these players seem to have their good weeks and off weeks (the quarterback play has a lot to do with that), and Butler had 89 yards against Illinois and caught 8 passes for 65 yards and a TD last week against the Hoosiers.
This unit is actually 4-deep as senior veteran Terrell Golden (#4) has also been a big factor in the passing game, especially recently. He has 19 catches so far, including 12 in the last 3 weeks, so he will undoubtedly be a part of the Lion gameplan on Saturday. The secondary has to be careful not to overlook him by concentrating on the other 3 playmakers.
WR Rating: A-
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus Ohio State WRs
Williams: 28 catches, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 9.4 YPR
Butler: 30 catches, 418 yards, 1 TD, 13.9 YPR
Norwood: 30 catches, 381 yards, 3 TDs, 12.7 YPR
Robiskie: 37 catches, 728 yards, 7 TDs, 19.7 YPR
Hartline: 30 catches, 360 yards, 4 TDs, 12.0 YPR
Small: 13 catches, 150 yards, 2 TDs, 11.5 YPR
Robiskie has had the biggest year, and has proven himself to be the playmaker of this group, leading in all major categories. Hartline has also been steadily improving and has been a very good possession-type receiver. The Lions have a distinct advantage in depth, having 4 players that can make a big play or have a big game, depending on how the passing game is going and what the gameplan is. The Buckeyes have the best player, but the Lions get the edge as a unit, based on their four talented and relatively interchangeable parts.
Edge: Penn State
Tight Ends
TE #10 Andrew Quarless (6-5, 252, SO, Uniondale HS, Uniondale, NY)
Quarless is quite an interesting player. He has more size and raw talent than 90% of the TEs out there, yet he always seems to be in the doghouse for something, including dropped passes and missed blocks, and as a result he has struggled and Mickey Shuler (#82) has also gotten quite a bit of playing time, including some starts. Both have good size and can be good blockers. If Quarless can put it all together, he could be a special player and a very difficult matchup for any secondary, but he hasn't caught a pass the last 2 weeks, and it's hard to see him being a huge factor this weekend. Shuler is fundamentally solid in the blocking game and can make an occasional catch.
TE Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus Ohio State TEs
Quarless: 9 catches, 131 yards, 2 TDs, 14.6 YPR
Nicol: 8 catches, 43 yards, 0 TDs, 5.4 YPR
Neither team has gotten much passing production from the TEs. Nicol has been a solid player for the Buckeyes, and Shuler fills a similar role. Quarless is the wild card, in every sense of the word. The Lions may have more raw talent, but the production hasn't resulted.
Edge: Even
Offensive Line
LT #76 Gerald Cadogan (6-5, 313, JR, Portsmouth HS, Portsmouth, OH)
LG #64 Rich Ohrnberger (6-2, 289, JR, East Meadow HS, East Meadow, NY)
C #57 A.Q. Shipley (6-1, 293, SR, Moon Area HS, Coraopolis, PA)
RG #50 Mike Lucian (6-2, 284, SR, Linganore HS, New Market, MD)
RT #73 Dennis Landolt (6-4, 294, JR, Holy Cross HS, Burlington, NJ)
This is a group that's been, with a few exceptions like Levi Brown, by and large fairly pedestrian for several years since Penn State's Big Ten heyday of the mid 90's. This year's crew has seen its share of shifting around, position swapping, and multiple starters, but by and large they have done a competent job, particularly in the running game. This unit is smaller and more agile than previous Lion lines, which have been more of the big and physical variety. Shipley is the leader of the group, having started every game last year en route to being honorable mention all-Big Ten. He has continued his solid play this season and is the leader of the line in the middle. Cadogan started 4 games at guard last year, and has manned the left tackle spot this season. Ohrnberger made 9 starts at guard last year and is another dependable player on the left side. Landolt was the backup to Levi Brown last season and now switches sides and mans the right tackle spot. The right guard position has seen its share of starters this season. Lucian, a converted defensive tackle, is one possibility, but after he suffered a concussion freshman Stefen Wisniewski (#61) made his first start at right guard last week, becoming the first Lion freshman to start on the line since 1999. He could get another start this week. Veteran John Shaw (#78), who has moved from tackle to guard and could also be a factor at the right guard spot, and sophomore Lou Eliades (#77) will both probably also get plenty of action.
OL Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus Ohio State OL
The Lion line has been playing better of late, and does have a few solid players, led in the middle by Shipley. However, they do not have the talent or the depth that the Buckeyes possess.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Offensive Analysis
It's hard to know what to make of this offense. Statistically, they aren't too bad, and Penn State teams general play with solid fundamentals and don't get a lot of silly (pre-snap) penalties. As usual with teams like Penn State, there is talent at the skill positions, especially at receiver, and the running game is solid and effective, if unspectacular because of the lack of a real home run threat. It basically boils down to the play of the line and Morelli, which has resulted in some good performances and also some disasters this season. If the line is playing well, Morelli has an extra second to wait for the A-list wideouts to get open, and the offense can be very effective. If not, or of Morelli is having one of his off games, then the offense is in deep trouble, because the running game doesn't have a Larry Johnson or a Tony Hunt to carry a game by themselves this season. This will be their biggest test, and though they have won impressively at home so far this season, they also made a Michigan defense that had looked absolutely silly for the first 2 weeks look dominant. The crowd will be loud, the players will be amped, the Lions will be confident from their previous performances at home (and especially the last game against Wisconsin), and the legacy of a season they originally had hopes of running the table in probably boils down to winning this game. Will all that be enough? The #1 defense in the country doesn't think so, and will have the chance to prove that Saturday.
Overall Offensive Rating: B-
2007 Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Preview
Returning Starters: 6
If the Big Ten did not include Ohio State, then the Nittany Lions would be the top defense in the conference. Playing the familiar 4-3, the Nittany Lions have given up only 15 points per contest, good for 4th nationally and 2nd in the Big Ten. Stingy with the yards, Penn State has been holding thier 8 oppoents to a conference second best 279.5 total yards per game, good for 7th nationally. 79.8 of those yards are gained on the ground, 9th nationally, and again second in the Big Ten. The remaining 199.8 that Penn State allows puts their pass defense 32nd in the nation, second in the conference - just ahead of Michigan.
Penn State has created 19 turnovers, including 12 fumble recoveries and 7 picks and has given up a leage second best 128 First Downs. Penn State leads the conference in sacks with 35, and is decent when oppoents get in to the Red Zone, having given up 15 TDs and 8 FGs in 30 opponent chances. Of the stops, 2 were by INT, 3 on downs and 2 by way of a missed FG. Third in the conference on 3rd downs (32%), Penn State has also been very good on 4th downs, leading the conference giving up only 2 of 9 attempts against (22%). Ohio State, in contrast, has afforded opponents the first in 5 of 9 4th down opportunities.
Of all those numbers listed, Ohio State continues to lead the way in the Conference. Of those categories listed, Ohio State trails Penn State in Sacks (25) and 4th down conversion percentage (62.5%). The top defense in the nation, the Buckeyes give up just under 8 points per game. Not including points scored against while the Defense was on the bench, Ohio State is only allowing 5 points a game (4TDs, 4FGs). Leading the nation in total yards against, opponents are gaining only an average of 208.5 total yards per game, of which 62.4 come on the ground (2nd in the nation) and the remaining 146.1 through the air (2nd in the nation). In recent weeks Ohio State has shut down the leagues top passing offense (Purdue) and top rushing offense (Michigan State) establishing themselves as outstanding in all phases.
Defensive Line
LE #47 Josh Gaines (6-1 264 JR)
LT #93 Chris Baker (6-2 305 JR)
RT #90 Phil Taylor (6-4 327 SO)
RE #48 Maurice Evans (6-2 269 SO)
The Lions have lost starting Defensive tackle #91 Jared Odrick (6-5 280 SO) for the year to a broken ankle suffered against Indiana. In his place, will be the massive Phil Taylor. A huge plug in the middle, Taylor's not much of a threat to get in to the backfield. He has recorded 7 Tackles, 3 TFLs and 1 sack. The other tackle is Chris Baker. Begining the season in Paterno's doghouse with off the field issues, Baker has 27 Tackeles, 4TFLs and a sack in 2007. Gaines saw some starts at RE in 2006, and replaces the outgoing Tim Shaw. He has 23 Tackles, 2.5 for loss - those being 2.5 sacks. On the other side is Evans, who has been outstanding thus far, playing in opposing backfields with regularity. Fourth on the team in tackles, of Evan's 33, 18.5 have come behind the line of scrimmage, and 10 of those have been sacks. He also has a 55 yard fumble return and 2 FFs to his credit.
The reserve Ends include; #59 Aaron Maybin (6-4 238 SO) and #94 Tom Golarz (6-1 249 JR) and the reserve Tackles include four Sophomores; #55 Tom McEowen (6-4 279 SO), #87 Chris Rogers (6-2 261 SR), #85 Ollie Ogbu (6-1 293 SO) and #97 Abe Koroma (6-3 312 SO). It should be noted, End Jerome Hayes #5 (6-2 236 JR) has also been lost for the season and will not play. Before his injury, he had recorded 17 Tackles, 3 TFLs and 2.5 Sacks. Ogbu has 12 Tackles, 7.5 of which have been for loss and a sack, while Maybin has had 8 Tackles, 4.5 for loss and 4 Sacks. Maybin is listed as the top reserve at both end postions. Rogers, Golarz and Koroma have each seen action, with Koroma having recovered a fumble and the other two each recording a tackle.
DL Rating: A-
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus OSU DL
Vernon Gholston - 19 Tackles, 5.5 TFLs, 5 Sacks, 1 fumble recovery (TD)
Doug Worthington - 15 Tackles, 1 INT
Todd Denliger - 10 Tackles, 1 TFL
Cam Heywood - 12 Tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 1.5 Sacks
Heywood earned the start against Michigan State, the first of his career, over Robert Rose. He has been a welcome addition to a line which has suffered some from the injury bug. Wilson remains out and Todd Denliger has also missed the last 3 agmes, but Nadar Abdallah and Dex Larimore have played well in his absence. While the Lions are better at getting to the quarterback, and have more TFLs, the Buckeyes have been more stout against the run. The Buckeyes enjoy a depth advantage, as Penn State has a great deal of inexpierence playing behind an already young line. This will also be the first full game without Odrick. Along with the loss of Hayes Penn State can ill-afford another loss on the line. While playing at a clip which would have us rate Penn State slightly ahead of the Buckeyes, due to the health issues and some uncertainty, we'll call it even.
Edge: Even
Linebackers
OLB #45 Sean Lee (6-2 232 JR)
MLB #40 Dan Connor (6-3 233 SR)
WLB #46 Tyrell Sales (6-2 237 SR)
Dan Connor leads the way for the Nittany Lion Linebackers. Some times in the shadow of the departed Paul Posluszny, Connor is probably actually the better of the two. Second on the team in Tackles with 76, Connor has 10 TFLs, 5 Sacks and a fumble recovery. Lee is the team's leading tackler with 79, 7.5 for loss and 3.5 sacks, along with a fumble recovery. The third man behind Posluszny and Connor in 2006, Lee is quickly making himself noticed. Weakside Linebacker Sales is sixth on the team in Tackles with 27, 4 for loss and 2 sacks.
The reserves are #43 Josh Hull (6-2 229 JR) on the strong side, #18 Navorro Bowman (6-1 228 SO) and #15 Bani Gbady (6-0 217) on the weakside, and #52 Dontey Brown (6-2 236 SR) and #53 Chris Colasanti (6-2 224 FR) in the middle. Hull, it should be noted, is also listed as Connor's primary back-up over Brown and Colasanti. Hull has 13 Tackles, Bowman 10 Tackles, 1 for loss and a fumble recovery, and Brown with 6 tackles, 0.5 for loss. Brown is listed as questionable for Ohio State with an arm injury.
LB Rating: A
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus OSU LBs
James Laurinaitis - 64 Tackles, 5.5 for loss, 4 Sacks, 2 INT
Marcus Freeman - 48 Tackles, 6.5 for loss, 1.5 Sacks
Larry Grant - 27 Tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 1 INT
Penn State's LBs play essentially the same role in Penn State's version of the 4-3 as do the Buckeyes LBs. Quick, active, and hard hitting, both groups are at the top of the list of best linebacking corps in the nation. Like Ohio State, Penn State has depth at the position, and depth which would probably start at other schools in the conference. Connor and Laurinaitis will compete against eachother for post-season hardware as the leaders of each group. While the Buckeyes unit is slightly better in pass situations, Penn State's group has a slight advantage in run situations. As such, like the line, we'll call this one Even.
Edge: Even
Secondary
RCB #10 Lydell Sargeant (5-10 186 JR)
WS #11 Tony Davis (5-10 186 JR)
SS #7 Anthony Scirrotto (6-0 195 JR)
LCB #1 Justin King (6-0 186 JR)
Calling the Secondary the weak link of the defense is a credit to how good the defense is overall. Sargeant is third on the team in Tackles with 46, 1.5 for loss, and is tied for the team lead in INTs with 2. Scirrotto also began the year with off the field issues, but has continued to play in his All Big Ten form, recording 32 Tackles, 0.5 for loss, is tied with Sargeant (and King) with 2 INTs and has 1 Fumble recovery. King, who's seen time on both sides of the ball over the course of his career, has 26 Tackles, 9 breakups and a fumble recovery to go along with his 2 INTs. Davis, a little undersized but having great range, has 24 Tackles and a pick after moving over to Safety from left corner in 2006.
The depth chart is completed by Corners; #25 Brendan Perretta (5-7 187 SR), #21 Knowledge Timmons (5-10 186 JR), #12 A.J. Wallace (6-1 195 SO), and #20 Devin Fentress (5-10 171 JR), and Safeties; #9 Mark Rubin (6-2 211 SR), #29 Cedric Jefferies (6-2 207 SO), and #42 Jason Ganter (6-0 211 SR). Among this group, Wallace leads the way with 15 Tackles and 2 fumble recoveries. Rubin is next with 11 Tackles, 1 for loss. Perretta, Timmons and Jefferies each have recorded 4 tackles, with Jefferies seeing action in each game, while Timmons has played in 7 games, and Perretta 5. Fentress has 3 tackles in 3 games, while Gantner has 2 in 8 games.
DB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus OSU DBs
Malcom Jenkins - 38 Tackles, 4 TFLs, 2 INTs, 3 BrUp
Donald Washington - 21 Tackles, 1 TFL, 1 Sack, 1 INT (TD), 1 BrUp
Anderson Russell - 35 Tackles, 3.5 TFL, 3 Sacks, 4 BrUp
Kurt Coleman - 37 Tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 1 Sack, 2 BrUp
The Buckeyes Secondary has proven to be a superior unit. Having already shut down the top three passing offenses in the Big Ten (Purdue, Northwestern and Minnesota), there is little doubt that moving the ball through the air is a poor option. While the Penn State unit is certainly not a liability, it does give up more yards per game and is not quite as deep as Ohio State's group. Both groups are athletic, with Coners who can run with any wide reciever, and Safeties who can bring the wood, as well as cover. But, Ohio State's group gets the nod here, as it is simply shutting people absolutely down, while there are some (though not many) yards to be had against the PSU unit.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Defensive Analysis
There is no question Ohio State is facing the best Defense they've seen this year, aside from the one they see in practice. Penn State is only second to Ohio State in the Conference and has plenty of playmakers to go around. The young D line is playing very well in 2007, though injuries and depth are a concern. As expected, the LBs are lights out, with Dan Connor taking over as the "next big thing" in Penn State linebacking lore. The Secondary is as good as it's been in years, though it is the apparent weakness of this excellent Defense. Again, that's less a sleight to the Secondary as it is a comment on how good this Defense is. Ohio State will have to establish itself early against the Lions, as yards and points will be hard to come by.
Overall Defensive Rating: A-
If the Big Ten did not include Ohio State, then the Nittany Lions would be the top defense in the conference. Playing the familiar 4-3, the Nittany Lions have given up only 15 points per contest, good for 4th nationally and 2nd in the Big Ten. Stingy with the yards, Penn State has been holding thier 8 oppoents to a conference second best 279.5 total yards per game, good for 7th nationally. 79.8 of those yards are gained on the ground, 9th nationally, and again second in the Big Ten. The remaining 199.8 that Penn State allows puts their pass defense 32nd in the nation, second in the conference - just ahead of Michigan.
Penn State has created 19 turnovers, including 12 fumble recoveries and 7 picks and has given up a leage second best 128 First Downs. Penn State leads the conference in sacks with 35, and is decent when oppoents get in to the Red Zone, having given up 15 TDs and 8 FGs in 30 opponent chances. Of the stops, 2 were by INT, 3 on downs and 2 by way of a missed FG. Third in the conference on 3rd downs (32%), Penn State has also been very good on 4th downs, leading the conference giving up only 2 of 9 attempts against (22%). Ohio State, in contrast, has afforded opponents the first in 5 of 9 4th down opportunities.
Of all those numbers listed, Ohio State continues to lead the way in the Conference. Of those categories listed, Ohio State trails Penn State in Sacks (25) and 4th down conversion percentage (62.5%). The top defense in the nation, the Buckeyes give up just under 8 points per game. Not including points scored against while the Defense was on the bench, Ohio State is only allowing 5 points a game (4TDs, 4FGs). Leading the nation in total yards against, opponents are gaining only an average of 208.5 total yards per game, of which 62.4 come on the ground (2nd in the nation) and the remaining 146.1 through the air (2nd in the nation). In recent weeks Ohio State has shut down the leagues top passing offense (Purdue) and top rushing offense (Michigan State) establishing themselves as outstanding in all phases.
Defensive Line
LE #47 Josh Gaines (6-1 264 JR)
LT #93 Chris Baker (6-2 305 JR)
RT #90 Phil Taylor (6-4 327 SO)
RE #48 Maurice Evans (6-2 269 SO)
The Lions have lost starting Defensive tackle #91 Jared Odrick (6-5 280 SO) for the year to a broken ankle suffered against Indiana. In his place, will be the massive Phil Taylor. A huge plug in the middle, Taylor's not much of a threat to get in to the backfield. He has recorded 7 Tackles, 3 TFLs and 1 sack. The other tackle is Chris Baker. Begining the season in Paterno's doghouse with off the field issues, Baker has 27 Tackeles, 4TFLs and a sack in 2007. Gaines saw some starts at RE in 2006, and replaces the outgoing Tim Shaw. He has 23 Tackles, 2.5 for loss - those being 2.5 sacks. On the other side is Evans, who has been outstanding thus far, playing in opposing backfields with regularity. Fourth on the team in tackles, of Evan's 33, 18.5 have come behind the line of scrimmage, and 10 of those have been sacks. He also has a 55 yard fumble return and 2 FFs to his credit.
The reserve Ends include; #59 Aaron Maybin (6-4 238 SO) and #94 Tom Golarz (6-1 249 JR) and the reserve Tackles include four Sophomores; #55 Tom McEowen (6-4 279 SO), #87 Chris Rogers (6-2 261 SR), #85 Ollie Ogbu (6-1 293 SO) and #97 Abe Koroma (6-3 312 SO). It should be noted, End Jerome Hayes #5 (6-2 236 JR) has also been lost for the season and will not play. Before his injury, he had recorded 17 Tackles, 3 TFLs and 2.5 Sacks. Ogbu has 12 Tackles, 7.5 of which have been for loss and a sack, while Maybin has had 8 Tackles, 4.5 for loss and 4 Sacks. Maybin is listed as the top reserve at both end postions. Rogers, Golarz and Koroma have each seen action, with Koroma having recovered a fumble and the other two each recording a tackle.
DL Rating: A-
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus OSU DL
Vernon Gholston - 19 Tackles, 5.5 TFLs, 5 Sacks, 1 fumble recovery (TD)
Doug Worthington - 15 Tackles, 1 INT
Todd Denliger - 10 Tackles, 1 TFL
Cam Heywood - 12 Tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 1.5 Sacks
Heywood earned the start against Michigan State, the first of his career, over Robert Rose. He has been a welcome addition to a line which has suffered some from the injury bug. Wilson remains out and Todd Denliger has also missed the last 3 agmes, but Nadar Abdallah and Dex Larimore have played well in his absence. While the Lions are better at getting to the quarterback, and have more TFLs, the Buckeyes have been more stout against the run. The Buckeyes enjoy a depth advantage, as Penn State has a great deal of inexpierence playing behind an already young line. This will also be the first full game without Odrick. Along with the loss of Hayes Penn State can ill-afford another loss on the line. While playing at a clip which would have us rate Penn State slightly ahead of the Buckeyes, due to the health issues and some uncertainty, we'll call it even.
Edge: Even
Linebackers
OLB #45 Sean Lee (6-2 232 JR)
MLB #40 Dan Connor (6-3 233 SR)
WLB #46 Tyrell Sales (6-2 237 SR)
Dan Connor leads the way for the Nittany Lion Linebackers. Some times in the shadow of the departed Paul Posluszny, Connor is probably actually the better of the two. Second on the team in Tackles with 76, Connor has 10 TFLs, 5 Sacks and a fumble recovery. Lee is the team's leading tackler with 79, 7.5 for loss and 3.5 sacks, along with a fumble recovery. The third man behind Posluszny and Connor in 2006, Lee is quickly making himself noticed. Weakside Linebacker Sales is sixth on the team in Tackles with 27, 4 for loss and 2 sacks.
The reserves are #43 Josh Hull (6-2 229 JR) on the strong side, #18 Navorro Bowman (6-1 228 SO) and #15 Bani Gbady (6-0 217) on the weakside, and #52 Dontey Brown (6-2 236 SR) and #53 Chris Colasanti (6-2 224 FR) in the middle. Hull, it should be noted, is also listed as Connor's primary back-up over Brown and Colasanti. Hull has 13 Tackles, Bowman 10 Tackles, 1 for loss and a fumble recovery, and Brown with 6 tackles, 0.5 for loss. Brown is listed as questionable for Ohio State with an arm injury.
LB Rating: A
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus OSU LBs
James Laurinaitis - 64 Tackles, 5.5 for loss, 4 Sacks, 2 INT
Marcus Freeman - 48 Tackles, 6.5 for loss, 1.5 Sacks
Larry Grant - 27 Tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 1 INT
Penn State's LBs play essentially the same role in Penn State's version of the 4-3 as do the Buckeyes LBs. Quick, active, and hard hitting, both groups are at the top of the list of best linebacking corps in the nation. Like Ohio State, Penn State has depth at the position, and depth which would probably start at other schools in the conference. Connor and Laurinaitis will compete against eachother for post-season hardware as the leaders of each group. While the Buckeyes unit is slightly better in pass situations, Penn State's group has a slight advantage in run situations. As such, like the line, we'll call this one Even.
Edge: Even
Secondary
RCB #10 Lydell Sargeant (5-10 186 JR)
WS #11 Tony Davis (5-10 186 JR)
SS #7 Anthony Scirrotto (6-0 195 JR)
LCB #1 Justin King (6-0 186 JR)
Calling the Secondary the weak link of the defense is a credit to how good the defense is overall. Sargeant is third on the team in Tackles with 46, 1.5 for loss, and is tied for the team lead in INTs with 2. Scirrotto also began the year with off the field issues, but has continued to play in his All Big Ten form, recording 32 Tackles, 0.5 for loss, is tied with Sargeant (and King) with 2 INTs and has 1 Fumble recovery. King, who's seen time on both sides of the ball over the course of his career, has 26 Tackles, 9 breakups and a fumble recovery to go along with his 2 INTs. Davis, a little undersized but having great range, has 24 Tackles and a pick after moving over to Safety from left corner in 2006.
The depth chart is completed by Corners; #25 Brendan Perretta (5-7 187 SR), #21 Knowledge Timmons (5-10 186 JR), #12 A.J. Wallace (6-1 195 SO), and #20 Devin Fentress (5-10 171 JR), and Safeties; #9 Mark Rubin (6-2 211 SR), #29 Cedric Jefferies (6-2 207 SO), and #42 Jason Ganter (6-0 211 SR). Among this group, Wallace leads the way with 15 Tackles and 2 fumble recoveries. Rubin is next with 11 Tackles, 1 for loss. Perretta, Timmons and Jefferies each have recorded 4 tackles, with Jefferies seeing action in each game, while Timmons has played in 7 games, and Perretta 5. Fentress has 3 tackles in 3 games, while Gantner has 2 in 8 games.
DB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Penn State versus OSU DBs
Malcom Jenkins - 38 Tackles, 4 TFLs, 2 INTs, 3 BrUp
Donald Washington - 21 Tackles, 1 TFL, 1 Sack, 1 INT (TD), 1 BrUp
Anderson Russell - 35 Tackles, 3.5 TFL, 3 Sacks, 4 BrUp
Kurt Coleman - 37 Tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 1 Sack, 2 BrUp
The Buckeyes Secondary has proven to be a superior unit. Having already shut down the top three passing offenses in the Big Ten (Purdue, Northwestern and Minnesota), there is little doubt that moving the ball through the air is a poor option. While the Penn State unit is certainly not a liability, it does give up more yards per game and is not quite as deep as Ohio State's group. Both groups are athletic, with Coners who can run with any wide reciever, and Safeties who can bring the wood, as well as cover. But, Ohio State's group gets the nod here, as it is simply shutting people absolutely down, while there are some (though not many) yards to be had against the PSU unit.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Defensive Analysis
There is no question Ohio State is facing the best Defense they've seen this year, aside from the one they see in practice. Penn State is only second to Ohio State in the Conference and has plenty of playmakers to go around. The young D line is playing very well in 2007, though injuries and depth are a concern. As expected, the LBs are lights out, with Dan Connor taking over as the "next big thing" in Penn State linebacking lore. The Secondary is as good as it's been in years, though it is the apparent weakness of this excellent Defense. Again, that's less a sleight to the Secondary as it is a comment on how good this Defense is. Ohio State will have to establish itself early against the Lions, as yards and points will be hard to come by.
Overall Defensive Rating: A-
2007 Penn State Nittany Lions Special Teams Preview
Returning Starters: 1
The Nittany Lions have a very talented group of kids manning the special teams, but not only do they have skills, but they have 4 returning lettermen with lots of experience and their only newcomer is having a great year. Some names will be familiar to the OSU fans out there.
Special Teams
P #41 Jeremy Boone (5-9 183 JR)
PK #23 Kevin Kelly (5-7 167 JR)
PR #2 Derrick Williams (6-0 203 JR)
KR #2 Derrick Williams (6-0 203 JR) & A.J. Wallace (6-1 195 SO)
LS #60 Patrick Weber (6-1 272 SR)
Kicking Game:
Jeremy Boone the only new face to the special teams is having an amazing year. He's averaging 44.2 yards per kick, has a long of 70, 7 of his kicks have gone for 50 yards or longer, 15 of his 36 punts were inside the 20 with only 2 going into the end zone and he has not been blocked. WOW! He's a stud.
Kevin Kelly the kicker for the Lions is 14 for 19 overall, but he is pretty much automatic from 0-39 yards going 12-12. On the flip side of that he is dreadful from 40+ yards going 2 for 7. He does have a long of 53 and does the kickoffs though, so the strength is there.
Kicking Game Rating: A- (just on the line of A- and B+)
Head-to-Head: Trapasso and Pretorius vs. Boone and Kelly
Boone is a stud, but here's the caveat, I am raving about him so it's guaranteed he will shank at least one punt. Kelly's not great, but after Pretorius got another one blocked, he didn't show me much either. Trapasso is his steady, but great self.
Edge: Penn State
Return Game:
I am sure most Buckeye Planeteers will remember the names of Derrick Williams and A.J. Wallace and those are who head up the return game for the Lions. These are the two primary guys on the kick return team, others have gotten touches, but not nearly as much as these two. Wallace has a damn good average, returning 11 kicks for an average of 27.0 yards and a long of 68. Williams is only averaging 19.2 yards with a long of 24. Williams is doing most of his damage on punt returns where he is averaging 13.7 yards per and took one 78 yards to the house where he earned the Pontiac Game Changing Performance of the Week versus Notre Dame.
Return Game Rating: B+
Head-to-Head: The Brians, Wells and Small vs. Derrick Williams and A.J. Wallace
This is a tough one to call, I remember all the hype surrounding Derrick Williams when OSU was recruiting him and we thought we had A.J. Wallace in the bag and I haven't got to watch them all that much, so my judgment is clouded by hype. Looking at the stats this year, they have been pretty productive. We shut down the best returner in the Big Ten last week allowing him only a 20 yard average compared to his 30+ he was getting so I see no reason why we won't do the same again this week, but in the same vain we didn't have a great week either and Penn State has guys just as talented and fast as ours.
Edge: Even
Overall Special Teams Analysis
Penn State has the talent and the experience and where they are the least experienced, you have a player coming in and stepping up huge. They have some accuracy problems for deeper field goals, but he's automatic close and they have the all-important game changing players for return men. OSU has to be on there A game because these guys are going to be fired up for that 8pm kickoff.
Overall Special Teams Rating: B+
The Nittany Lions have a very talented group of kids manning the special teams, but not only do they have skills, but they have 4 returning lettermen with lots of experience and their only newcomer is having a great year. Some names will be familiar to the OSU fans out there.
Special Teams
P #41 Jeremy Boone (5-9 183 JR)
PK #23 Kevin Kelly (5-7 167 JR)
PR #2 Derrick Williams (6-0 203 JR)
KR #2 Derrick Williams (6-0 203 JR) & A.J. Wallace (6-1 195 SO)
LS #60 Patrick Weber (6-1 272 SR)
Kicking Game:
Jeremy Boone the only new face to the special teams is having an amazing year. He's averaging 44.2 yards per kick, has a long of 70, 7 of his kicks have gone for 50 yards or longer, 15 of his 36 punts were inside the 20 with only 2 going into the end zone and he has not been blocked. WOW! He's a stud.
Kevin Kelly the kicker for the Lions is 14 for 19 overall, but he is pretty much automatic from 0-39 yards going 12-12. On the flip side of that he is dreadful from 40+ yards going 2 for 7. He does have a long of 53 and does the kickoffs though, so the strength is there.
Kicking Game Rating: A- (just on the line of A- and B+)
Head-to-Head: Trapasso and Pretorius vs. Boone and Kelly
Boone is a stud, but here's the caveat, I am raving about him so it's guaranteed he will shank at least one punt. Kelly's not great, but after Pretorius got another one blocked, he didn't show me much either. Trapasso is his steady, but great self.
Edge: Penn State
Return Game:
I am sure most Buckeye Planeteers will remember the names of Derrick Williams and A.J. Wallace and those are who head up the return game for the Lions. These are the two primary guys on the kick return team, others have gotten touches, but not nearly as much as these two. Wallace has a damn good average, returning 11 kicks for an average of 27.0 yards and a long of 68. Williams is only averaging 19.2 yards with a long of 24. Williams is doing most of his damage on punt returns where he is averaging 13.7 yards per and took one 78 yards to the house where he earned the Pontiac Game Changing Performance of the Week versus Notre Dame.
Return Game Rating: B+
Head-to-Head: The Brians, Wells and Small vs. Derrick Williams and A.J. Wallace
This is a tough one to call, I remember all the hype surrounding Derrick Williams when OSU was recruiting him and we thought we had A.J. Wallace in the bag and I haven't got to watch them all that much, so my judgment is clouded by hype. Looking at the stats this year, they have been pretty productive. We shut down the best returner in the Big Ten last week allowing him only a 20 yard average compared to his 30+ he was getting so I see no reason why we won't do the same again this week, but in the same vain we didn't have a great week either and Penn State has guys just as talented and fast as ours.
Edge: Even
Overall Special Teams Analysis
Penn State has the talent and the experience and where they are the least experienced, you have a player coming in and stepping up huge. They have some accuracy problems for deeper field goals, but he's automatic close and they have the all-important game changing players for return men. OSU has to be on there A game because these guys are going to be fired up for that 8pm kickoff.
Overall Special Teams Rating: B+
Predictions
BB73's prediction: 23-13, Ohio State
BuckeyeRyn's prediction: 24-17, Ohio State
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 31-10, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 23-21, Ohio State
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 23-13, Ohio State
daddyphatsac's prediction: 20-13, Ohio State
Hubbard's prediction: 17-3, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: 20-13, Ohio State
OSUBucks22's prediction: 20-10, Ohio State
OSUsushichic's prediction: 24-14, Ohio State
3yardsandacloud's prediction: 21-10, Ohio State
Previous Game's Results (OSU 24 - MSU 17)
Low score wins the year long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual score versus predicted score. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)
(1, 19, 10, 18, 15, 18, 7, 18 = 106) OSUBucks22's: 38-13, Ohio State (14 + 4 = 18 + 88 last week)
(11, 14, 10, 12, 21, 22, 9, 8 = 107) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 31-16, Ohio State (7 + 1 = 8 + 99 last week)
(0, 29, 15, 22, 14, 18, 9, 14 = 113) OSUSushichic's prediction: 35-14, Ohio State (11 + 3 = 14 + 99 last week)
(4, 29, 9, 23, 17, 27, 10, 10 = 119) BB73's prediction: 31-20, Ohio State (7 + 3 = 10 + 109 last week)
(2, 22, 18, 28, 17, 23, 13, 14 = 127) 3yardsandacloud's prediction: 35-14, Ohio State (11 + 3 = 14 + 113 last week)
(0, 33, 17, 25, 14, 21, 21, 15 = 136) Hubbard's prediction: 35-13, Ohio State (11 + 4 = 15 + 121 last week)
(7, 25, 14, 40, 11, 22, 17, 10 = 146) Buckeyeryn's prediction: 34-17, Ohio State (10 + 0 = 10 + 136 last week)
(7, 22, 12, DNP (40), DNP (22), 28, 9, 7 = 147) daddyphatsac's prediction: 27-21, Ohio State (3 + 4 = 7 + 140 last week)
(10, 30, 15, 25, 19, DNP (28), 15, 13 = 155) jwinslow's prediction: 34-20, Ohio State (10 + 3 = 13 + 142 last week)
(17, 22, 16, 27, 22, 28, 13, 11 = 156) Bucklion's prediction: 28-24, Ohio State (4 + 7 = 11 + 145 last week)
(16, 33, 10, 28, 19, 25, 17, 21 = 169) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 41-13, Ohio State (17 + 4 = 21 + 148 last week)
Adjusted scores for weeks missed. Participant must take the highest score from the week they missed:
BuckeyeRyn's prediction: 24-17, Ohio State
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 31-10, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 23-21, Ohio State
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 23-13, Ohio State
daddyphatsac's prediction: 20-13, Ohio State
Hubbard's prediction: 17-3, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: 20-13, Ohio State
OSUBucks22's prediction: 20-10, Ohio State
OSUsushichic's prediction: 24-14, Ohio State
3yardsandacloud's prediction: 21-10, Ohio State
Previous Game's Results (OSU 24 - MSU 17)
Low score wins the year long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual score versus predicted score. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)
(1, 19, 10, 18, 15, 18, 7, 18 = 106) OSUBucks22's: 38-13, Ohio State (14 + 4 = 18 + 88 last week)
(11, 14, 10, 12, 21, 22, 9, 8 = 107) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 31-16, Ohio State (7 + 1 = 8 + 99 last week)
(0, 29, 15, 22, 14, 18, 9, 14 = 113) OSUSushichic's prediction: 35-14, Ohio State (11 + 3 = 14 + 99 last week)
(4, 29, 9, 23, 17, 27, 10, 10 = 119) BB73's prediction: 31-20, Ohio State (7 + 3 = 10 + 109 last week)
(2, 22, 18, 28, 17, 23, 13, 14 = 127) 3yardsandacloud's prediction: 35-14, Ohio State (11 + 3 = 14 + 113 last week)
(0, 33, 17, 25, 14, 21, 21, 15 = 136) Hubbard's prediction: 35-13, Ohio State (11 + 4 = 15 + 121 last week)
(7, 25, 14, 40, 11, 22, 17, 10 = 146) Buckeyeryn's prediction: 34-17, Ohio State (10 + 0 = 10 + 136 last week)
(7, 22, 12, DNP (40), DNP (22), 28, 9, 7 = 147) daddyphatsac's prediction: 27-21, Ohio State (3 + 4 = 7 + 140 last week)
(10, 30, 15, 25, 19, DNP (28), 15, 13 = 155) jwinslow's prediction: 34-20, Ohio State (10 + 3 = 13 + 142 last week)
(17, 22, 16, 27, 22, 28, 13, 11 = 156) Bucklion's prediction: 28-24, Ohio State (4 + 7 = 11 + 145 last week)
(16, 33, 10, 28, 19, 25, 17, 21 = 169) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 41-13, Ohio State (17 + 4 = 21 + 148 last week)
Adjusted scores for weeks missed. Participant must take the highest score from the week they missed:
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