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2024 tOSU Defense Discussion

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This is the most excited I've been to watch a secondary and that's saying something. Beyond the seemingly obvious starters, there is a stupid amount of talent behind them. Of course I hope our starters remain healthy, but really nice knowing the depth is so stacked behind them and can step in with no problem, or to just play if a guy to give someone a breather.
 
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The Buckeyes led the nation in pass defense last year
They were second in Pass Efficiency defense

What's remarkable though, is that, as good as they were, there is every reason to believe that they will be better this coming season. That got me to wondering how often a pass defense has put up a great performance in one season and then improved upon it the next. I decided to look at stats over the last decade, because 10 years is long enough, and because stats are the only tool I have for dealing with that many data points. There aren't enough hours in the off season to watch 10 years worth of games for every team.

My definition for a great season was a team that had a Defensive Pass Efficiency of less than 110 on the season. I chose this number because only 1 team in all of college football has averaged DPE of less than 110 for the entire past decade of games (Clemson 109.67). Each year of the past decade there were from 4 to 14 teams that achieved this level of performance.

Of those teams, only 9 managed to have a better DPE the next year.

Three of those nine won the National Championship

Two fell well short of an NC because of terrible offense

Two of them did not win the NC at least in part because they had to play Ohio State

Two of them WERE Ohio State teams who did not win the NC because of their offense

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Only Ohio State and TCUN appear in the list twice, Ohio State being the only team to do it in consecutive years.

TCUN 2016 was the only team to have DPE better (less than) 100 in the previous year and STILL manage to improve. This is significant because this is a feat that the Buckeyes are trying to match.

Only 9 teams managed a double digit DPE over the past decade. Together they achieved the feat a total of 14 times.

Ohio State is the only team in college football to have done it three times.
TCUN is the only team to have done it in consecutive years
Northwestern and Wisconsin are the other teams to have done it twice
The teams that posted double digit DPE once in the past decade include Alabama, Clemson, Florida, Illinois, and Notre Dame.

None of teams with 2 double digit DPE years (TCUN, NW, Wiscy) look to be able to make it 3 in the 2024 campaign, so if the Buckeyes can keep DPE below 100 this year, which seems very doable, they will have probably performed the feat at least twice as many times in the past decade as any other team.
 
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Our secondary is going to be nasty! I don’t think we will face any strong returning QBs either so should be able to get a lot more aggressive with blitz packages. Should see turnovers up from last year and just punish teams.
 
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Our secondary is going to be nasty! I don’t think we will face any strong returning QBs either so should be able to get a lot more aggressive with blitz packages. Should see turnovers up from last year and just punish teams.
Agreed on the increase in turnovers

It seems to me that there might be an even bigger difference in sacks

The Jim Knowles defenses at OSU-lite increased in sacks every year he was there, but the Silver Bullets saw a big drop off in sacks last year. A lot of that was by design as they were playing to contain and limit big plays. Mission accomplished. I agree that they’ll get more aggressive this year, especially in the opponent’s end of the field. He didn’t blitz much until they got close to FG range last year. 2024 seems like a good year to dial it up and finish teams early
 
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Agreed on the increase in turnovers

It seems to me that there might be an even bigger difference in sacks

The Jim Knowles defenses at OSU-lite increased in sacks every year he was there, but the Silver Bullets saw a big drop off in sacks last year. A lot of that was by design as they were playing to contain and limit big plays. Mission accomplished. I agree that they’ll get more aggressive this year, especially in the opponent’s end of the field. He didn’t blitz much until they got close to FG range last year. 2024 seems like a good year to dial it up and finish teams early
I have to give Knowles a ton of credit, we were all screaming to stop sending risky blitzes left and right when you have all that talent. He made the adjustment pretty quickly and fielded one of the top defenses in the nation. Sacks are exciting, but my main thing is limiting points on the board and we exceled there.

But to your point, I do think we see more sacks this year with Sawyer and JT back, plus I see some heat coming from Styles and Hicks off the edge. Either way, if we have the same overall results as last year then I think it is a championship caliber team with what should be an improved offense.
 
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