3yardsandacloud
Administrator Emeritus
2006 Michigan State Spartans Game Preview
written by: BB73, BuckeyeRyn, Buckeyeskickbuttocks, Bucklion, DaddyBigBucks, daddyphatsacs, Deety, FKAGobucks877, jwinslow, LordJeffBuck, osugrad21, OSUsushichic, PrincessPeach, and 3yardsandacloud
The Buckeyes make another road trip this week, as they head up to East Lansing to battle the Spartans. Michigan State is currently riding a 3-game losing streak which started with their well-publicized meltdown against Notre Dame; where they managed to blow a 16-point fourth quarter lead, revive Brady Quinn's Heisman candidacy, and keep the Domers on track for a BCS bid in less than 10 minutes of game action.
Since then they've managed to disappoint their homecoming crowd by falling to Illinois on a last-minute field goal, and dropped a game in Ann Arbor that they never had a chance to win. But right now John L. Smith surely has some graduate assistant piecing together film clips from the 1974 and 1998 MSU-tOSU games within the trailer from the upcoming movie 300 (fyi, that's how many Spartans were at the ancient battle at Thermopylae).
It's interesting to note that Michigan State has been voted #1 in the weekly AP football poll an impressive 29 times, a figure rather close to the total of 34 times for TSUN (by comparison, tOSU is at 80 and counting). However, the Spartans have only produced two 10-win seasons in their history (1965 and 1999), while the Wolverines have had double-digit victory totals 24 times. Why the discrepancy between those figures? It's all related to timing; most teams started playing an 11-game regular season in the early 1970s, before then it took a nearly unblemished record to reach 10 wins.
The Spartans were an excellent team from the 1950s through 1966, winning two major poll National Championships, plus a piece of one in the 1966 season that ended in the 10-10 tie with Notre Dame in one of the 'Games of the Century'. But since then they are within 1 game of being a .500 team overall, and have only had 2 seasons where they finished in the top 10: 1987's 8th-ranked 9-2-1 squad and 1999's 7th-ranked 10-2 team, which are also the only two campaigns since 1966 where they had less than 3 losses. Their in-state neighbor, on the other hand, has been making regular bowl appearances since the Big Ten allowed teams to go somewhere besides the Rose Bowl in the mid-1970s.
There are some interesting historical facts regarding the Spartans. They actually had no football team in 1943 because of World War II; that's the only non-football season among current Big Ten members since 1907. The last time MSU had a perfect season was 1952, the year before they joined the Big-10 Conference.
When ranked #1 in the AP poll, tOSU has an all-time record of 57-8-1. (Note: this doesn't count the first two games of the 1943 season, when the final poll of 1942 had tOSU on top, the 1943 team was affected by military enrollment, and 2 games were played before a poll was taken: a loss to Iowa Pre-Flight and a win over Missouri). Of those eight losses, only UCLA (in L.A. in 1962 and the 1976 Rose Bowl) and Michigan State claim more than one. The others: at Wisconsin in 1942, at Illinois in 1950, at TSUN in 1969, and USC in the 1980 Rose Bowl.
Maybe in about 20 years most of us will no longer be ticked off by what happened the the #1 Buckeyes on November 7, 1998, but probably not. That game in itself is enough of a reason to want the Buckeyes to drill the Spartans every time the teams meet over the next couple of decades. Some fans may still be having nightmares about Plaxico Burress and Julian Peterson. In an interesting and irritating note, 1998 was the only one of Nick Saban's five MSU teams that didn't go to a bowl game.
But there's also another game like that for the longer-term fans - 1974. Woody took the boys up to East Lansing as a clear #1 in the polls, and finished the day with a 16-13 loss; after ending up in the end zone on the last play of the day (as well as the play before, according to Buckeye fans and the pictures in The Lantern that Monday). It took the referees and Big-10 commissioner Wayne Duke over 30 minutes to declare MSU the winner, since there was an offensive penalty and confusion by the referees on the last play.
History shows that tOSU responded well against the Spartans after that 1974 game. Eight straight wins, and 13 out of 15, until that game 8 years ago that also knocked us from the #1 ranking. Let's hope the team is stilll responding to 1998.
1974 and 1998. Two reasons to be wary of the Spartans whenever tOSU carries a #1 ranking into the game.
Date and Time
Date: Saturday, October 14th, 2006
Time: 3:30 EDT Kick-off
Location: Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, MI)
Constructed: 1923 (Renovated 2005)
Seating Capacity: 75,025 (Originally 14,000)
Playing Surface: Turfgrass
Honorary Captain:
Broadcast Information:
TV Broacast: ABC: (Play-by-play), Bob Griese and Paul Maguire (Analysis), and Bonnie Bernstein (Sideline)
Radio Broadcast: Ohio State Radio Network (1460TheFan in Columbus): Paul Keels (Play-by-play), Jim Lachey (Analysis), and Marty Bannister (Sideline)
2006 Michigan State Spartans Offensive Preview
Returning starters: 6
Well after a brief exit from conference play, the Buckeyes are back to the Big 10 slate as they travel to dangerous Michigan State. The Spartans are known for their gaudy offensive numbers, streaky play, and fragile psyche, all of which are borne out from last season's numbers. The Spartans were 5th in the nation in total offense a year ago, averaging a ridiculous 497.3 yards per game. In that, they were 20th rushing the ball (201.8 YPG) and 11th passing it (295.5 YPG). They were also in the top 20 in scoring, averaging almost 34 points per game. However, a team that looked virtually unstoppable the first month, which included a win over Notre Dame, a 61-14 bombing of Illinois, and 4 wins with 40+ points, went into a tailspin when they got to the important teams in the conference, dropping 6 of their last 7 and scoring 30 points just twice. Their turnover margin was also a pedestrian 65th nationally, and they allowed a Buckeye record 12 sacks in Columbus last year. They missed a bowl for the 2nd straight year of Stanton's tenure as a starter, prompting some to wonder whether coach John L. Smith was really the man for the job.
This season they've put up some good numbers also, but they could be in the midst of another tailspin. The Spartans are again averaging well over 400 yards per game (425.3), good for 21st nationally, and are ranked in the top 20 in rushing (194.0 ypg) awhile still putting up respectable numbers passing the ball (219 ypg, 44th nationally). They are also scoring 31.2 points per game, good for 27th nationally, so the Spartan offense has again put the numbers on the board. However, after another fast start, a good win at Pittsburgh, and a great half against Notre Dame, the Spartans have fallen apart. They gave up the big lead against the Irish, lost at home again to hapless Illinois, then looked defeated early against the Wolverines last week. Now, injured, battered, and cornered, with many people predicting the season is lost, they get one more shot at a marquis matchup in front of the home fans ... which team will show up?
Quarterbacks
QB #5 Drew Stanton (6-3, 230, SR, Harrison HS, Farmington Hills, MI)
It seems like it's been longer than 2 1/2 years that Stanton has started at Michigan State. He has put up some very good numbers, completing over 60% of his passes all 3 seasons (including so far this year), and threw for 3077 yards and 22 TDs last year. This season, he is still completing for a high percentage (62%), but his TD/INT ratio is a pedestrian 8-6, and combined with his rating of 131, the numbers are more reminiscent of his 2004 season than 2005. Still, he has some games coming up in future weeks that he can put up big numbers, and he will undoubtedly do so. One of his biggest strengths is his versatility, and this year he also ranks 2nd on the team in rushing with 302 yards, and has scored 4 rushing TDs to go with his 8 passing TDs. Thus, his dual threat ability will make him difficult to defend this year, as he has been in the past. Last year, he threw for 340 yards against the Buckeyes, but they were able to pound on him all game and hold him to 4 net rushing yards and sack him 12 times on their way to victory.
Stanton started the season with some solid performances against weaker competition, played well in a good win at Pittsburgh (including passing for 198 yards and 2 scores, and rushing for 105 yards and another), and then played one very good half against Notre Dame to stake the Spartans to a big lead. However he finished with just 115 yards passing in that game, and his 2nd half turnovers were crucial in the improbably Irish comeback. Since then, he has been ice cold, throwing for just 396 total yards (and rushing for just 56) with no passing TDs, and 2 INTs, in 2 conference losses to Illinois and Michigan. Stanton is very streaky, and will need to play better than he has all season for the Spartans to have a realistic chance this weekend. Also of significant note is that he has been sacked 11 times already this year...the Buckeyes sacked him an unbelievable school record 12 times last season in Columbus.
The backups is sophomore Brian Hoyer (#7) a good-sized kid with some potential that hasn't played much. He had some mop-up duty against Eastern Michigan, completing all 4 of his passes for 33 yards and a TD, and he entered the Illinois game in a tough spot but managed to complete 2 of 3 for 20 more yards. It's hard to know how he would perform if thrust into duty Saturday, but he appears to have some promise.
QB Rating: B+
Head-to-Head: Michigan State vs Ohio State QBs
Stanton (P/R): 101/163 (62.0%), 1187 yards, 8 TDs, 6 INTs, 132.0 rating; 69/302, 4 TDs.
Smith (P/R): 101/148 (68.2%), 1261 yards, 15 TDs, 2 INTs, 170.6 rating; 29/78, 0 TDs.
Troy Smith is, as has been repeated here every week, in full command of the #1 team in the country. He is the unquestioned leader, has a firm grasp of the offense, utilizes the weapons around him, makes a ton of good decisions, and showed last week against the Falcons that he can still make things happen when a play breaks down. He is at the top of many Heisman lists, and has played that quality of football almost the entire season. Expect great things against a suspect defense this weekend. On the other side for the Spartans, there is no doubt that Drew Stanton will finish his career as one of the most talented QBs in school history, with some of the best numbers. His tenure as far as the team goes, however, has been more disappointing. Michigan State will be remembered more for their collapses the past 2 years than they will their wins or the gaudy offensive numbers they generated. In his 3 years, Michigan State has 2 signature wins. On the plus side for Stanton, last year's Notre Dame game was probably his best, when he produced 4 TDs in their OT win, and that will be a victory they remember for a long time in East Lansing. On the flip side, in the realm of the Big Ten conference, the other win was the 49-14 beatdown they laid at the feet of 9-0 (then #4) Wisconsin in 2004, a game that Stanton did not start, but played sparingly because of injury. In his 2+ years as the starter now (this is year 3 for him at the helm), Stanton has only beaten one Big Ten team (in a game as the starter) that finished with a winning record: 7-5 Minnesota in 2004. Every QB who passes through the Big Ten wants that one signature conference win to give everyone something to remember for years to come. Unless Penn State finds a way to gain a near-miracle upset of Michigan this weekend and goes on a big run to get to the end of the conference season 6-1, this will be his last chance to get one, as the Spartans play Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, and Minnesota (combined conference record so far is 2-7) in between those games, and Penn State will probably have enough losses that it won't qualify. Given all of that, look for Stanton to let it all hang out, in front of the home fans against the #1 team in the country, one last time. This could be Stanton at his most dangerous...it will take Saturday's game to know for sure.
Edge: Ohio State
Running Backs
RB #30 Jehuu Caulcrick (6-0, 260, JR, Clymer HS, Sherman, NY)
Caulcrick is a mauler who packs a mean wallop and loves to run over people, but he is still agile enough to bounce it outside once in a while. The unfortunate loss of Jevon Ringer to injury means he will carry most of the load the rest of the way. After a couple of average games early in the year, he bulldozed his way to 111 yards on only 8 carries against ND, scoring a TD, but since then has gained only 64 yards on 27 carries in Big Ten play, scoring a pair of TDs, giving him 6 on the year. He has caught 5 passes the last 2 games (6 overall), so he may be an outlet once in a while for Stanton Saturday also. He has scored a TD in all 5 games he has played in this year, and is one of the premier short yardage backs in the country. How much of a load he can carry for a 60 minute game between the 20s is open to debate, however, as he gained just 29 yards against Michigan last week on 14 carries.
Second on the chart now is promising redshirt freshman A. J. Jimmerson (#20) from St. Louis. He has solid size (5-10, 205) and can run with some burst. He has 17 carries for 90 yards so far, but will probably see the ball more now that Ringer is out. Most of his work came against Eastern Michigan when Caulcrick didn't play, gaining 79 yards on 10 carries. He has just 4 carries for 1 yard in conference play, but they will need him down the stretch as a change of pace (as well as a rest) for Caulcrick.
No other backs have significant carries.
RB Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Michigan State vs Ohio State RBs
Caulcrick: 64/289 yards, 6 TDs, 4.5 YPC; 6 rec/48 yards, 0 TD, 8.0 YPR
Jimmerson: 17 carries, 90 yards, 0 TDs, 5.3 YPC); no rec
Pittman: 109/628 yards, 7 TDs, 5.8 YPC; 5 rec/21 yards, 0 TDs, 4.2 YPR
C Wells: 44/180, 1 TD, 4.1 YPC; 2 rec/16 yards, 0 TDs, 8.0 YPR
This is really not a fair comparison because Caulcrick was in more of a Chris Wells role when Jevon Ringer (61 carries, 438 yards, 1 TD, 7.2 YPC) was playing as the featured back. Given those numbers were compiled before last week's Michigan game, the numbers between the two sets of backs were roughly equivalent at that time, and the Michigan State "thunder and lightning" ground game was formidable then. Still, life and football go on, and the analysis here is that Pittman continues to impress, and Wells keeps running hard and picking up 1st downs. Caulcrick is a monster to bring down, but it will be interesting to see if he can be a featured back.
Edge: Ohio State
Wide Receivers
WR #15 Kerry Reed (6-2, 198, SR, Coffeyville CC)
WR #32 Jerramy Scott (5-10, 186, SR, Dwyer HS, Jupiter, FL)
WR #12 T. J. Williams (6-3, 184, FR, Fork Union Military Academy)
Stanton has spread the ball around nicely in the passing game this year, and several players have played key roles. Reed leads the team with 26 catches for 334 yards and 4 TDs. He cracked the 100 yard barrier against Pittsburgh, scored 2 TDs against Notre Dame, and has caught 8 balls in conference play, so he has played well against solid competition. Scott, last season's leading returning receiver with 722 yards on 49 catches, has been less involved in 2006 thus far, catching 16 passes for 240 yards. He has caught just 2 passes in each of the last 3 games, though those were good for 56 yards last week against Michigan.
Williams has just 7 catches for 76 yards and a TD thus far (including 4 for 53 2 weeks ago against Illinois), and is listed as starting in place of Matt Trannon, the team's second leading receiver with 25 catches for 274 yards and 2 TDs, who was carried off the field last week against the Wolverines and has been battling injuries even before that. Smith was on record saying he thought it was a sprain, but Trannon is not listed at all on the chart this week. If Trannon somehow can go, his size (6-6, 235) makes him a tough matchup for any defensive back. Williams dropped an easy TD last week, so if it is his spot, he will have to step up big time this week for the Spartans.
The other backups are sophomores Ryan Allison (#82) and Devin Thomas (#10), and veteran junior Terry Love (#18). Love is the only one with significant contributions so far, as he has 8 catches for 130 yards to this point, and caught 4 passes for 57 yards last week. Thomas has one catch, and Allison has zero.
WR Rating: B+
Head-to-Head: Michigan State vs Ohio State WRs
Reed: 26 catches, 334 yards, 4 TDs, 12.8 YPR
Scott: 16 catches, 240 yards, 0 TDs, 15.0 YPR
Williams: 7 catches, 76 yards, 1 TD, 10.9 YPR
(Trannon: 25 catches, 274 yards, 2 TDs, 11.0 YPR)
Ginn Jr.: 33 catches, 459 yards, 6 TDs, 13.9 YPR
Gonzalez: 27 catches, 404 yards, 4 TDs, 15.0 YPR
Robiskie: 12 catches, 149 yards, 2 TDs, 12.4 YPR
This comparison is a lot more intriguing if Trannon is involved. His size makes for a tough matchup in the red zone, and the speed of Reed and Scott are a nice compliment to that. Williams dropped a sure TD in the first quarter last week, and looks a bit shaky. On the flip side, Ginn continues to make his share of big plays, and Gonzalez is one of the most reliable receivers in the country. The new "underrated Gonzalez" we had in the past couple of years might be Robiskie, who has run some nice routes and made some tough catches, and looks to be a dependable 3rd option when it counts. The Spartan corps is good, but the Buckeyes are a little better.
Edge: Ohio State
Tight Ends
TE #81 Dwayne Holmes (6-0, 277, SO, Ford HS, Detroit, MI)
Here is an area where the Spartans have good players, and Coach John L. Smith is, well, pretty much at his weirdest. The starter for most of the season has been Kellen Davis (#80), a very solid player with good size (6-6, 253) and good range in the passing game. He had 5 catches for 48 yards and a TD through the first 5 games, and he set up a TD with an important catch in the Illinois game. Then, last week, he and 3rd string player Eric Andino (#48) didn't play at all, instead the coaches opting for backup Holmes and 4th stringer and backup tackle Rocco Cironi (#57), and no explanation of any kind was given for the change. Asked about injury, Smith said only "I can't get into that". Oooooookay. Now there is a 5th player, Kyle Sackrider (#87) listed as the backup this week to Holmes on the official chart. In any event, for his part Holmes is a monster who is a good blocker and can also catch passes, as he caught 2 for 22 yards against the Wolverines last week. This position (whoever plays) will probably be pivotal to keep some pressure off Stanton, either by catching passes downfield or staying in and blocking.
TE Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Michigan State vs Ohio State TEs
Davis: 5 catches, 48 yards, 1 TD, 9.6 YPR
Nicol: 7 rec, 55 yards, 1 TD, 7.9 YPR
Well, uh, what to say? It's hard to have any idea who will actually play here this week, but either Davis or Holmes can certainly be effective. Nicol caught a TD against Bowling Green last week, but he has not been a significant part of the offense in the crucial games to this point. Given the size and depth the Spartans have, they get the edge here (assuming any of those players get in the game).
Edge: Michigan State
Offensive Line
LT #66 Mike Gyetvai (6-7, 307, JR, Sandwich Secondary, Old Castle, ON, Canada)
LG #75 Pete Clifford (6-7, 300, JR, Bridgton Academy, Salem, NH)
C #74 Kyle Cook (6-3, 295, SR, Dakota HS, Macomb, MI)
RG #73 Roland Martin (6-5, 325, SO, Harper HS, Chicago, IL)
RT #79 Jesse Miller (6-6, 306, SO, Somerville HS, Somerville, NJ)
This is a solid line that offers a combination of youth and experience. One thing that jumps out about this group across the board is not just the size, but the height. 4 of the players are at least 6-5, and that leverage will make life difficult for any defensive line. Clifford is the one surprise to see in the starting lineup, as he started just 1 of the first 5 games. Center Cook is probably the best of the group, and the pair of sophomores on the right side look promising. This line will need to protect Stanton much better than they did in this game last season, and with 11 sacks allowed already, they need to shore up this week. This group is good at run-blocking, but the strategy will probably change at least somewhat with Caulcrick as the featured back as opposed to Ringer, and last week's 29-yard performance shows that there is a transition yet to be made there.
The backups are tackle (and apparently occasional TE) Cironi (#57), tackle Brendon Moss (#64), guards Kenny Shane (#71) and Mike Bacon (#60), and center John Masters (#54). Of those, Masters and Shane have seen the most significant time, and could work into the rotation Saturday.
OL Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Michigan State vs Ohio State OL
Both teams offer a good combination of size, agility, and experience. The Buckeyes are bigger, the Spartans are taller, and both groups are very capable run blockers. The pass blocking will be key, as the 12 sacks Stanton took last season is probably fresh in everyone's mind. Whichever QB gets the best protection will obviously have best chance to succeed...however it is probably more important for the Spartan line to play at a higher level. This is a good battle, but again, the track record of the Buckeyes gives them the edge.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Offensive Analysis
This offense has put up monster numbers with Stanton at the helm, and will in all likelihood have similar accomplishments by the end of this season as well. The Spartans started fast last year against the Buckeyes, and had the kick not been blocked and returned at the end of the first half, who knows what would have happened. Unfortunately for Smith that is a familiar refrain during his tenure, but in all fairness it dates back to well before he got there too. It is difficult to know exactly how to gauge this offense, as there are always impressive numbers overall, but the team goes through phases of awful play and relative collapse...but then can spring to like at any time, as evidenced by the Wisconsin game in 2004. They can also steamroll once they get going, as demonstrated in the first month of last season. The first half of the Notre Dame game showed how potently dangerous this group can be, but the time since has shown how they can be a shell of themselves when things are going bad. As discussed above, this is probably Stanton's last shot at that signature conference win, and it happens to be 1) at home, and 2) against the #1 team in the country, and 3) against a team that they had some success against for a half last season. This could be the last chance to save the season for the Spartans, or at the very least the last chance to preserve the possibility of a decent finish and an upper-level bowl game. A drop to 0-3 in conference play will not spell doom necessarily because of the following 4 games, but it would drop the team to 3-4 overall and who knows what effect that would have on the fragile psyche of the program. In other words, this team is angry, banged up, desperate, and this could be their last hurrah...expect them to play like a cornered and wounded animal, and expect nothing less than their very best effort, which, as seen a few times previously, means they can be very, very dangerous. This is a good group when they are clicking...the Buckeyes could find themselves with their hands full.
Overall Offensive Rating: B+
2006 Michigan State Spartans Defensive Preview
Returning Starters: 6
The meltdown in the land of Sparty has already begun. It happened a week or two earlier this season, but nonetheless it has occurred. MSU has come off a 3 game span that has seen them go from undefeated, to one of the bottom teams in the Big Ten. It all started with the 4th quarter implosion against Notre Dame, and has carried into this week. Everyone should write off this MSU team, at least on paper. But logic tells you that they are going to play OSU tight, at least they will if the Buckeyes play flat like they did last week against Bowling Green. The worst thing that the Buckeyes could do is buy into the hype at this moment in time. It would be an easy thing to do, especially considering the fact that they ran through a gauntlet in September that turned them from a possible title contender into the front runner. It's hard get to the top, but when you've arrived, it gets even harder to remain in that position. The road over the next few weeks will not be as easy as some think it will be. It starts this week with a game that I think will be a bit closer than anticipated in East Lansing. Listed below is where Michigan State stands in a handful of the major defensive categories in the Big Ten.
Scoring Defense: 25.7 Points per game (8th in Big Ten)
Rushing Defense: 124.3 Yards per game (5th in Big Ten)
Passing Defense: 209.8 YPG (8th in Big Ten)
Total Defense: 334.2 YPG (7th in Big Ten)
Sacks: 7 (11th in Big Ten)
Interceptions: 5 (Tied for last in Big Ten)
Red Zone Defense: Opponents have come away with points 15 out of 15 times that they have entered MSU?s 20 yardline. 9 have been for touchdowns, with the other 6 being field goals. MSU is last in the Big Ten in this category.
Defensive Line
DE: # 19 JUSTIN KERSHAW (6-4, 254, SO)
DT: # 92 CLIFTON RYAN (6-2, 302, SR)
DT: # 99 OGEMDI NWAGBUO (6-4, 297, JR)
DE: # 51 ERVIN BALDWIN (6-2, 252, JR)
Leading the way on the defensive line for the Spartans will by senior defensive tackle Clifton Ryan. On the season Ryan has 19 tackles, including 4.5 for a loss, along with a team high 3 sacks. He also leads the team with a very respectable 13 QB hurries. Ryan is a force from his tackle spot, he can be very disruptive at times. He'll give the Buckeyes trouble on the inside, hopefully they can contain him a little better than they did the BG defensive line. The other tackle for the Spartans will be junior Ogemdi Nwagbuo (try saying that 3 time fast). Nwagbuo has 11 tackles and 2 quarterback hurries this season. Of the two tackles, he is the weaker link.
Getting the start at one of the defensive end spots will be junior Ervin Baldwin. Baldwin has 12 tackles on the season, 3.5 of those have been for a loss. Baldwin also has 2 sacks, 7 QB hurries, an interception, along with a blocked kick. Baldwin is a juco transfer who has really become a steady performer along the defensive front for the Spartans. He?s a bit undersized, but plays a steady brand of football. Sophomore Justin Kershaw will get the nod at the other defensive end position. So far this season Kershaw has 16 tackles, along with 3 QB hurries.
DL Rating: C+
Overall DL Analysis
As a defensive coach you hope that you can say that your unit plays hard, and that they make big plays. I?m not too sure that is the case with this bunch that MSU features along their front 4. They are last in the Big Ten in sacks, and haven't been effective at stopping anyone inside of their red zone. Clifton Ryan is the only guy who really worries me, he is very active from his tackle spot. Also keep an eye on Baldwin, he has the ability to come off the end and get to Smith in this ballgame. Hopefully the Buckeye offensive line gives a better showing this week, if not this MSU line will look better than they really are.
Head-to-Head: Michigan State vs Ohio State DL
Ohio State?s front 4 have really developed into a disruptive defensive line, especially against the pass. The biggest surprise this season has been the emergence of Gholsten. He is becoming an absolute beast, and has about as much athleticism as any end in the country. Couple that with the best tackle duo in the country (hopefully Patterson is alright this week), and you have one hell of a defensive front. Michigan State doesn't really have anyone outside of Ryan that seems to be an impact player. The clear advantage in this category goes to Ohio State.
Edge: Ohio State
Linebackers
OLB: # 41 DAVID HERRON JR. (6-1, 245, SR)
MLB: # 43 KALEB THORNHILL (6-1, 239, JR)
OLB: # 27 SIRDAREAN ADAMS (6-0, 230, JR)
Michigan State is led at the linebacker position by senior Warren Harding alum David Herron Jr. From his outside spot, Herron is 2nd on the team with 36 tackles, including 2.5 for a loss this season. Herron also has a forced fumble, as well as an interception in his senior campaign. Herron is the leader of the Michigan State front 7. He has been a solid performer for several years for the Spartans. He's not flashy, but is a very stable piece of the MSU defense. The other outside linebacker slot will be occupied by junior Sirdarean Adams. On the season Adams has 22 tackles, including 2 for a loss. Adams also has 2 pass breakups, an interception, along with a QB hurry. Leading the way in the middle for the Spartains will be junior Kaleb Thornhill. Thornhill has 31 tackles, along with 3 pass breakups this season. Thornhill has good size, as well as a decent amount of range from the middle. He seems to get caught up in traffic a bit too much, that is probably his biggest weakness. Pittman will definitely test his range when he breaks a run or two to the outside this week.
LB Rating: C+
Overall LB Analysis
I hate to sound like a broken record here, but again I find myself unimpressed with another section of the Michigan State defense. Last week against their archrival Michigan, this unit only managed a total of 1 tackle for a loss, along with a pass breakup. Not exactly earth shattering numbers there, especially in a game where you expect your guys to be fired up and playing with a lot of heart. This unit will be the key to the game for Michigan State If Pittman and Wells can run the ball for large chunks of landscape, and these guys don't make any big plays, Ohio State will roll in a big fashion in East Lansing.
Head-to-Head: Michigan State vs Ohio State LBs
Ohio State continues to be a bit of a work in progress from a linebacker standpoint. Laurinaitis is a Butkus award nominee, no need to go into any more detail about him. After the little animal, I am a bit concerned with the fact that no one else has stepped up into a more dominant role consistently. Freeman has shown flashes of greatness, but he's not there yet. Homan will also be a very good one, but the light hasn't clicked on yet for him on the field. The most concerning part of this unit (with the exception of Laurinaitis) is them getting caught up in traffic, and having to play uphill instead of downhill. This will change with experience, but this unit is still a work in progress. How do they compare to the Spartans unit at this moment? I'd say that they are still much better than MSU. Laurinaitis is enough to tip the scale, but I also like OSU's speed over the Spartans. I'm just waiting for the light to click on with the other two LB spots for the Buckeyes, when it does this unit will be among the best in the country. The edge goes to OSU here.
Edge: Ohio State
Secondary
CB: # 29 GREG COOPER (5-11, 186, SR)
SS: # 3 NEHEMIAH WARRICK (6-1, 203, JR)
FS: # 21 OTIS WILEY (6-2, 209, SO)
CB: # 9 DEMOND WILLIAMS (5-9, 174, SR)
Leading the way for the Spartans in the secondary will be sophomore free safety Otis Wiley. Wiley leads the Spartans with a total of 46 tackles, including 5 for a loss, and a sack. Wiley also has 5 broken up passes, and a forced fumble. Wiley is the best athlete in this MSU secondary, and he is also the youngest. He is very solid in run support, but reacts a bit slowly against the pass. MSU likes to blitz him, so keep an eye on him coming off the outside, or possibly even up the the middle in an attempt to generate pressure on Smith. Getting the start at strong safety this week for the Spartans will be junior Nehemiah Warrick. Warrick has a total of 35 tackles on the season, including 1 for a loss. Warrick has also broken up 2 passes so far this season.
Getting the start at one of the cornerback spots will be senior Demond Williams. On the season Williams has a total of 17 tackles, along with 6 pass breakups. He leads with team with 2 interceptions. Williams is a bit short, but has very good speed. He has pretty decent ball skills, but is at a major disadvantage in jump situations. Don't be surprised to see the Buckeyes throw a jump ball in his direction as this game unfolds. The other corner for the Spartans will be senior Greg Cooper. On the season Cooper has 19 tackles and a pass breakup. Cooper has a bit more size, but doesn't have the speed that Williams possesses. He could be a vulnerability for the Spartans against a high octane OSU passing attack.
DB Rating: C-
Overall DB Analysis
This secondary has given up a league high 15 touchdown passes this season. They are tied for last in the Big Ten with 5 interceptions on the season. Just to put it into a bit more perspective, their 5 interceptions are 1 more than Laurinaitis has alone this season. Quite frankly, this is not a good unit. The only playmaker is free safety Otis Wiley, and he does most of his damage close to the line of scrimmage. There is no one on the unit who can match up man to man with Ginn or Gonzalez. Against Notre Dame they surrendered 5 touchdown passes. Against Michigan they surrendered 2 touchdown passes to Manningham early on in that contest. This unit is vulnerable, Troy Smith has a chance to have a Heisman like performance against them.
Head-to-Head: Michigan State vs Ohio State DBs
OSU is tied for the lead nationally with 12 interceptions, MSU is tied for last in the Big Ten with 5 picks. OSU has two potential All Big Ten performers (Jenkins, Mitchell), Michigan State has none. No need to further elaborate, the clear edge goes to the Buckeyes here.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Defensive Analysis
This Michigan State has underperformed up to this point in the season, which is nothing new if you have followed college football over the last decade or two. They don't have anyone who is going to generate any post season awards, with the exception of maybe Clifton Ryan. They have been horrible in the red zone, and have been poor at defending the pass. Couple that with an anemic pass rush, and you get a feeling for what OSU could do to this defense this weekend. Unfortunately things don't always work out this way, I'm under the impression that this one will either go one of two ways. Either MSU will come out with swagger, and confidence, and challenge OSU down to the wire. Or, they will come out and fall into a hole early, and roll over against the Buckeyes. Time will tell what scenario pans out, if I was a betting man I'd go with the 2nd thought. Something about this game does scare me a bit, probably the fact that Michigan State has nothing to lose at the moment. Regardless, the run toward perfection continues this weekend for the Buckeyes with a solid win over a inconsistent Michigan State squad.
Overall Defensive Rating: C
2006 Michigan State Spartans Special Teams Preview
Returning Starters: 1
John L. Smith will be remembered for having 10 men on the field to attempt a field goal just before halftime in Columbus last year. The subsequent block and touchdown return dramatically turned the game in tOSU's favor. MSU's 5 of 16 mark on attempted field goals last year indicated that they had some problems even when 11 players lined up for a kick. But this year, freshman Brett Swenson from Ft. Lauderdale has been an effective field goal kicker.
Michigan State has a very good, experienced punter and a solid coverage squad. They are not able to put kickoffs into the end zone on a consistent basis, however, so they may be vulnerable in that area. Their return men are good, but don't strike fear into their opponents.
Special Teams
P #8 Brandon Fields (6-5 216 SR)*
PK #14 Brett Swenson (5-8 151 FR)
PK #15 Todd Boleski (6-6 214 SO)
PR #18 Terry Love (5-11 172 JR)
KR #9 Demond Williams (5-9, 175 SR)*
LS #56 Brian Bury (6-0 255 SR)
* = Returning Starter
Kicking Game
The Spartans returned Brandon Fields at punter, who has bounced back from a down year in 2005 (41.6 average) to once again become a contender for the Ray Guy award. Fields is averaging 46.1 yards on 23 punts, with 7 of those being inside the 20-yard line, with 4 touchbacks. Opponents have only managed 51 yards on 6 punt returns, resulting in an excellent net average of 40.4. His longest effort was a 73-yarder against the Fighting Irish. In the past, he sometimes had trouble with outkicking his coverage, but that hasn't happened this year despite his high average.
Swenson has connected on 7 of 9 field goals this year, but hasn't yet proved he can consistently hit from distance. His longest of 43-yards is his only made FG over 35 yards; his misses were from 51 in the opener and from 33 in Ann Arbor last week.
Boleski is included as a second PK since he handles most of the kickoff duties (Fields has done it 3 times, including an on-sides attempt last week). Only 10 of Boleski's 34 kickoffs have been touchbacks. Opponents are averaging 22.6 yards on kickoff returns, with the overall average being the 26-yard line for starting a drive.
Kicking Rating: A-
Head-to-Head: Michigan State vs Ohio State Kickers
Fields has a slight edge over Trapasso in punting, and Swenson has performed at least as well as Pettrey, who had some problems early but as been effective over the past few games. Pettrey's consistency in booting kickoffs into the endzone gives Ohio State an advantage in that area.
Edge: Michigan State
Return Game
Terry Love is a wide receiver who is a returning starter on the punt return unit. He has been the only Spartan to return a punt this season, and has a net of 80 yards on 9 atempts. That includes a loss of 12 early in the year and a 22-yard effort in Ann Arbor last week. He can be dangerous if he gets on open field.
Javon Ringer returned 4 kickoffs for 85 yards early in the season, but an injury has sidelined him for the remainder of 2006. Demond Williams has been the only one to return kickoffs in the last 4 games, totalling 257 yards on 13 attempts, for a 19.8 average. Although potentially dangerous, his 37-yarder against Notre Dame is his only return over 27 yards.
Return Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Michigan State vs Ohio State Returners
The threat of Ginn is still enough to intimidate opponents. While Michigan State's return game is good, the Buckeyes have more potential to hit the home run.
Edge: Ohio State - Both coverage units have done a good job in avoiding the huge play, but Ginn gives the Buckeyes the greater threat to break one big.
Overall Special Teams Analysis
The Spartans seem to be much improved in the kicking game this year. Both their punting and field goal kicking have much better numbers than last year. Fields give them the opportunity to play a field position game and flip the field with a huge punt. Their lack of deep kickoffs should provide Ohio State with some opportunites to gain good starting field position. While Ohio State is still waiting for Ginn to break the long one, the threat gives the Buckeyes the advantage in the return game.
Overall Special Teams Rating: B+
Predictions
BB73's prediction: 34-17, Ohio State
BuckeyeRyn's prediction: 31-13, Ohio State
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 38-10, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 31-20, Ohio State
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 45-16, Ohio State
daddyphatsac's prediction: 27-17, Ohio State
Deety's prediction: ??-??, Ohio State
FKAGobucks877's prediction: ??-??, Ohio State
]jwinslow's prediction: 34-21, Ohio State
LordJeffBuck's prediction: 44-14, Ohio State
osugrad21's prediction: 28-10, Ohio State
OSUsushichic's prediction: 28-13, Ohio State
PrincessPeach's prediction: 38-17, Ohio State
3yardsandacloud's prediction: 35-14, Ohio State
Last Week's Results (OSU 35 - Bowling Green 7)
Low score wins the year long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual score versus predicted score. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)
(57) FKAGobucks877's prediction: 33-16, Ohio State (DNP = 0 + 57 last week) DNP 1 week
(58) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 42-3, Ohio State (7 + 4 = 11 + 47 last week)
(67) BB73's prediction: 38-10, Ohio State (3 + 3 = 6 + 61 last week)
(68) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 49-13, Ohio State (14 + 6 = 20 + 48 last week) DNP 2 weeks
(69) BuckeyeRyn's prediction: 42-13, Ohio State (7 + 6 = 13 + 56 last week)
(75) OSUsushichic's prediction: 48-6, Ohio State (13 + 1 = 14 + 61 last week)
(75) Deety's prediction: 45-10, Ohio State (10 + 3 = 13 + 62 last week)
(78) PrincessPeach's prediction: 42-10, Ohio State (7 + 3 = 10 + 68 last week)
(79) Bucklion's prediction: 45-13, Ohio State (10 + 6 = 16 + 63 last week)
(79) jwinslow's prediction: 42-10, Ohio State (7 + 3 = 10 + 69 last week) DNP 1 week
(87) daddyphatsac's prediction: 41-6, Ohio State (6 + 1 = 7 + 80 last week)
(92) osugrad21's prediction: 45-17, Ohio State (10 + 10 = 20 + 72 last week)
(93) LordJeffBuck's prediction: 45-7, Ohio State (10 + 0 = 10 + 83 last week)
(96) 3yardsandacloud's prediction: 56-9, Ohio State (21 + 2 = 23 + 73 last week)
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