2009 Michigan Wolverines Game Preview
written by: BB73, Buckeyeskickbuttocks, Bucklion, Bucky Katt, DaddyBigBucks, JCOSU86, and jwinslow
Date and Time
Date: Saturday, November 21st, 2009
Time: Noon ET Kick-off
Location: Michigan Stadium - "The Big House" (Ann Arbor, MI)
Constructed: 1927 (Renovated in 2008)
Seating Capacity: 106,201 (Originally 72,000)
Playing Surface: FieldTurf
Events: '1954 Tribute Uniforms', Mirror Lake, Blood Drive, Tissue and Organ Donor Drive
Broadcast Information:
TV: ABC (national): Sean McDonough (Play-by-Play) and Matt Millen (analyst) in the booth and Holly Rowe on the sidelines.
Radio: WBNS (FM 97.1 The Fan). Paul Keels will call the play-by-play with former Buckeye Jim Lachey in the booth and Marty Bannister on the sidelines. The game can also be heard on Sirius satellite radio Channel 122.
2009 Michigan Wolverines Offensive PreviewLocation: Michigan Stadium - "The Big House" (Ann Arbor, MI)
Constructed: 1927 (Renovated in 2008)
Seating Capacity: 106,201 (Originally 72,000)
Playing Surface: FieldTurf
Events: '1954 Tribute Uniforms', Mirror Lake, Blood Drive, Tissue and Organ Donor Drive
Broadcast Information:
TV: ABC (national): Sean McDonough (Play-by-Play) and Matt Millen (analyst) in the booth and Holly Rowe on the sidelines.
Radio: WBNS (FM 97.1 The Fan). Paul Keels will call the play-by-play with former Buckeye Jim Lachey in the booth and Marty Bannister on the sidelines. The game can also be heard on Sirius satellite radio Channel 122.
Returning starters: 9
The Game. Every season boils down to it. In 2009, for Michigan, the entire season rides on it. If success can be measured in record and rivalry games, then Michigan fans have not had much to cheer about all season on either count. It started off well enough, with the Wolverines pulling off a improbable come-from-behind win in the final minute over equally maligned Notre Dame and then pushing their record to 4-0 and netting them a top 25 ranking in several polls. They were 1-0 in the conference after a controversial win over Indiana after a shootout at the Big House and were thinking in terms of contending for a conference title. However, Indiana and Michigan now find themselves tied in the conference standings...at the bottom with a 1-6 record. Their only win since September was over a 3-6 FCS weakling, Delaware State. Other than their wins over unimpressive 6-4 Notre Dame and 4-7 Indiana, Michigan's FBS highlights are relegated to 2 wins over weather vane Michigan schools from the MAC West, one of which is 0-10 and the other of which is 5-6. They cannot finish .500 or even close to it in the conference, and the only way they can even be eligible for a bowl game or dodge the conference cellar with Indiana for a second straight year is to beat Ohio State on Saturday. By all accounts, it has been another miserable season for the Wolverines. Until now. The Wolverines have one singular chance to keep the second year of the Rich Rodriguez era from being an unmitigated disaster by Michigan standards, or quite frankly by any standards. And that is to take out the Buckeyes on Saturday, at home, at high noon, at the epicenter of rivalry week. One game season. Perhaps never in the history of Michigan football has this sentence carried more literal meaning than it has the past 2 years.
And then there is embattled coach Rich Rodriguez. Since Fielding Yost took over in 1901 and until Lloyd Carr retired in 2007, there had been only 10 head coaches at Michigan. Nine of those had winning records and a winning percentage of at least .600 in their first season. Only Bump Elliot (4-5) had a losing record in year one. Until Rodriguez. Of the coaches who made it to year 3, their records in year 2 were: 11-0 (Yost), 8-0-1 (Kipke), 6-2 (Crisler), 6-2-1 (Oosterbaan), 5-4 (Elliott), 9-1 (Bo), 10-2 (Moeller), and 8-4 (Carr). All therefore had winning records. Until Rodriguez...or will he not even make it to year 3? Make no mistake about it, Rodriguez will be under tremendous pressure to get the program turned around quickly and decisively next year, if he even has that chance. A win over the Buckeyes could give him something significant to build on for 2010 and might just save his job. A crushing home defeat would make this year a virtual waste and almost certainly expedite his exodus. So the coach has just as much, if not more, riding on this game as the players do.
Michigan's offense has shown significant improvement from a year ago, including stretches of highly effective play, combined with some spells of mediocrity and only sporadic signs of poor play that plagued the team for most of 2008. As the defense has been so weak, it has been up to the offense to try and carry the Wolverines, and though they've been competitive in most conference games, they have been unable to win any of their previous 6. In total yardage, they are averaging 391.4 yards per game, ranked 56th nationally. They have attained a reasonable balance, as their rushing attack averages 195.8 yards per game, which ranks an impressive 21st nationally. The passing game is averaging only 210.6 yards a game, however, ranking only 87th. Michigan is also scoring 31.3 points per contest, up 10 from their average entering last season's game and ranking 27th nationally. Michigan's total of 219 first downs is good for 33rd nationally, and their 38.5% conversion percentage on third downs ranks a respectable 55th. What has killed Michigan is their turnover margin, which is an abysmal -0.73, which ties them for 102nd nationally (Ohio State ranks 7th nationally at +1.09). They have given the ball away at far too many critical times, including 11 interceptions thrown and 12 fumbles lost. It will be interesting to see what kind of gameplan the Wolverines have for the Buckeyes, and how well they are able to execute that, but the bottom line is if they can't hang on to the football, it doesn't matter how much better the offense is than last year, it's still going to be a long Saturday for the Wolverines.
Quarterbacks
QB #5 Tate Forcier (6-1, 188, FR, Scripps Ranch HS, San Diego, CA)
QB #16 Denard Robinson (6-0, 185, FR, Deerfield Beach HS, Deerfield Beach, FL)
Tate Forcier entered the season with a cool brashness that endeared him to Michigan fans aching for a playmaker to run the offense. For the most part, he's been solid, though he has made his share of freshman mistakes as well. He started off the year by making an immediate impact, throwing for 179 yards and 3 TDs against Western Michigan in the opener. He followed that with his magical drive to beat the Irish in week 2, throwing for 240 yards and 2 TDs and rushing for 70 yards and a score in the game. After a quiet game against Eastern Michigan (68 yards passing), he threw for 184 yards and 2 TDs and ran for another as the Wolverines beat Indiana, pushing their record to 4-0. In the loss to Michigan State in the 5th game, he overcame a slow start to lead the team to 2 late scores to push the game into OT. He threw for 223 yards and 2 TDs in the game and still looked like a very solid Big Ten QB. In the Iowa game, however, he was highly ineffective to the point of being benched at the end, throwing for only 94 yards on 8 of 19 passing with an INT. After a light week of work against Delaware State, he took the field against Penn State and was again unable to move the offense, completing only 13 of 30 for 140 yards and an INT. He bounced back to throw for 257 against Illinois and for 212 yards and a TD (with a TD rushing) against Purdue, but the Wolverines still lost both games. Last week against Wisconsin, he completed a very high percentage (20/26) for 188 yards and 2 TDs, but he also rushed for -16 yards and threw a pick as the Wolverines dropped their 4th in a row and their 6th straight conference game. Forcier has been slowed by injuries, but he has persevered to still play reasonably well and he appears to have a good deal of upside if he continues to develop and stays healthy. Though he's a threat to gain big yards on a critical scramble, he's not overly effective running the ball, as he's topped the 40 yard mark only once this year on the ground. He takes quite a few sacks (24) and doesn't seem to throw deep much, both of which could be significant problems Saturday if he can't avoid the Buckeye rush or loosen the defense up with some effective shots downfield.
Fellow freshman Robinson is more of a running quarterback who has shown flashes of big play ability but has turned the ball over way, way too much to be considered a starting QB at this point. He hasn't thrown much, and when he has, it's been mostly ugly other than the Delaware State game (3/4, 85 yards, 2 TDs). He threw 2 picks in 4 attempts against Eastern Michigan (0/4), threw a critical interception at the end of the Iowa game, and hasn't topped 40 yards passing in any other game this season. On the ground, he's been effective against MAC schools (11/74 TD against Western, 3/60 2 TDs against Eastern) and Delaware State (6/54 TD), but that's about it. He had a decent game against Iowa in that regard (9/49, TD) but hasn't broken 36 yards rushing in any other Big Ten contest. It is likely that he will play on Saturday, but until he can prove he can throw the ball effectively or accurately (he was 1/5 last week against Wisconsin) the Buckeyes will be keying on the run when he is in there, and he will be relegated to running some version of the Wildcat as he has done for much of the season.
Holdover Nick Sheridan (#8) is the backup. He's played in 2 blowouts and that's about it.
QB Rating: C+
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus Ohio State QBs
Forcier: 142/243 (58.4%), 1824 yards, 12 TDs, 6 INTs, 132.8 rating; 112/230, 3 TDs
Robinson: 12/27 (44.4%), 185 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs, 96.8 rating; 59/320, 5 TDs
Pryor: 135/241 (56.0%), 1761 yards, 15 TDs, 9 INTs, 130.5 rating; 123/633, 7 TDs
Both teams have young QBs who have had their share of growing pains this season. However, Pryor has demonstrated his explosiveness running the football, has completed a good number of passes downfield for big plays, and has shown significant improvement in the past month in crunch time, indicating his increasing maturity level and his development over the course of the season. On the other side, Forcier seems to be a better fit for this offense than either of his predecessors last season, though he doesn't complete an especially high percentage of throws, doesn't throw downfield very often, and isn't as much of a consistent threat on the ground as maybe the scheme calls for. Robinson seems more of a fit in the running game, but his passing borders on atrocious much of the time and he has turned the ball over way too many times, so the defense basically knows what's coming whenever he is in the game and the Wolverines haven't really been able to overcome that. In any event, Forcier appears to be the man in Ann Arbor for the foreseeable future, but Pryor has the Buckeyes once again poised for an outright Big Ten title, which was inconceivable to many less than 2 months ago. He threw 2 TD passes in the blowout win last season, and he looks to be the leader the Buckeyes have been counting on entering this year's version of The Game.
Edge: Ohio State
Running Backs
TB #4 Brandon Minor (6-1, 218, SR, Varina HS, Richmond, VA)
TB #23 Carlos Brown (6-0, 210, SR, Heard County HS, Franklin, GA)
FB #24 Kevin Grady (5-9, 230, SR, East Grand Rapids HS, East Grand Rapids, MI)
FB #44 Mark Moundros (6-1, 233, JR, North Farmington HS, Farmington Hills, MI)
This is one area where the Wolverines have their share of talent, depth, and experience. Minor and Brown have done a lot of alternating as 1 and 1A this season, and each has had their share of good games. Brown has gotten the most starts with 8, though Minor has the most yards with just over 500 and the most TDs with 8. Minor's success has been sporadic, and is basically confined to 5 games: Notre Dame, Indiana, Iowa, Penn State, Purdue. Against Notre Dame, he gained 106 yards on 16 carries, scoring a TD. In the Indiana game, he gained 50 yards on 12 carries and scored a TD. Against Iowa, he rushed 22 times for 95 yards and scored 2 TDs. The Penn State game saw him gain 48 yards on 12 carries and score the team's only TD. Finally, he exploded in the Purdue game, having his best game by far as he carried 19 times for 154 yards and scored 3 TDs. In the other 6 Michigan games to this point, his high is only 26 yards on the ground (last week against Wisconsin) and he has no TDs. When he is on, he is a big and powerful back who can barrel between the tackles and has a nice acceleration when he hits the hole. He is no threat out of the backfield at all, having caught only one pass this year. Brown has also gained the bulk of his yards in only 4 games: Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Illinois. Against Western he gained 54 yards on 10 carries, and against Eastern he had 13 carries for 187 yards and 2 TDs. He gained 83 yards on 11 carries with a TD and caught a 61 yard pass TD against Indiana, and he carried 25 times for 94 yards and a TD against Illinois. Other than those 4 games, his high is 35 yards against Penn State. So, both backs have had their share of relatively good games, but both have also disappeared in stretches as well. It will be interesting to see which back (if either) is featured on Saturday, as both are seniors and have a good deal of experience. In last year's game, Minor had 14 carries for 67 yards and a TD, whereas Minor had 3 carries for 3 yards and caught one of the team's 8 total completions...if that is anything to go on. Reports are Minor is doubtful for the game as well, so it could be Brown's show this Saturday.
Backing up Minor and Brown is sophomore Michael Shaw (#20) who carried 12 times for 41 yards in last year's game. In 2009, he's been limited in his duty, starting two games and gaining 178 yards and scoring 2 TDs on only 35 carries. Other than the early season blowouts, he hasn't gotten much work. One player to keep an eye on though is freshman Vincent Smith (#2). Though he is listed as 4th on the depth chart, he appears to be an explosive scatback (5-6, 168) with some real upside both rushing and catching the football, and his workload has increased in recent games. He rushed for 166 yards and a TD in his first significant action against Delaware State, and last week against Wisconsin he carried 8 times for 28 yards and caught 7 passes for 54 yards and a TD, so he could very well be a significant part of the gameplan this weekend. Much like freshmen backs at Wisconsin and Minnesota, he appears to be a player in the conference to keep an eye on going forward.
At fullback, Grady and Moundros are solid players who can block and also handle the football once in a great while. Grady had 8 carries for 73 yards and a score against Delaware State, but has only 2 other carries and 3 receptions all season. Moundros has no catches or carries this season. Both players have similar size and can be effective blocking in the interior.
RB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus Ohio State RBs
Minor: 96/502 yards, 8 TDs, 5.2 YPC; 1 rec/1 yard, 0 TDs, 1.0 YPR
Brown: 81/480 yards, 4 TDs, 5.9 YPC; 9 rec/126 yards, 1 TD, 14.0 YPR
Saine: 119/610 yards, 3 TDs, 5.1 YPC; 14 rec/164 yards, 1 TD, 11.7 YPR
Herron: 120/462 yards, 7 TDs, 3.9 YPC; 6 rec/31 yards, 0 TDs, 5.2 YPR
Though Minor and Brown have some talent, neither Wolverine back has really been able to get it going consistently, with each player showing flashes of brilliance one game and then being replaced by someone else entirely in another. Minor seems to run the hardest of the bunch, particularly between the tackles, though Brown has some tough runs as well and may have a bit more speed. Shaw, a converted WR, has quite a bit of speed, so his carries are sporadic and often hit or miss. Smith is the wild card and the most intriguing player of the bunch, though he would face quite an upgrade in competition this weekend. On the flip side, Buckeye and Wolverine fans alike know that Chris Wells beat Michigan like a rented mule, and the Buckeyes will miss his 134 yards and a TD from last season and his 222 yards and 2 TDs on 39 carries the year before. Injuries and inconsistent blocking have prevented either Buckeye back from establishing Wellsian dominance thus far this season, but both appear to be healthy at just the right time for a big close to the season. Herron burned Michigan for 80 yards and 2 TDs last year on just 8 carries, so he will have a great deal of confidence going in. Saine has quietly established himself as a weapon for the Buckeyes carrying and catching the football, and his versatility and playmaking will also come in handy this weekend. Both teams have quality players with some depth and a good deal of experience, but give the Buckeyes a slight edge for more consistency while healthy and more success against the opposition in recent years. The one-two combination of Herron and Saine is slightly more complete and slightly more dangerous than Minor and Brown, but watch out for Smith as well. If Minor can't play, it will also hurt the Wolverines.
Edge: Ohio State
Wide Receivers
WR-X #13 Greg Mathews (6-3, 209, SR, Edgewater HS, Orlando, FL)
WR-Y #9 Martavious Odoms (5-9, 172, SO, Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
WR-Y #12 Roy Roundtree (6-0, 170, FR, Trotwood-Madison HS, Trotwood, OH)
WR-Z #22 Junior Hemmingway (6-1, 220, SO, Conway HS, Conway, SC)
This is another veteran group with some experience that could help the Wolverines stay competitive on Saturday. All 4 of these players bring something a little different to the table, and collectively this is a pretty decent group. Of the 8 passes Michigan completed in last season's game, Odoms caught 5 (for 37 yards) and had a carry for 8 yards. He has 22 catches for 272 yards thus far in 2009 after leading the team last season with 49 catches for 443 yards. He has been out the past 3 games with an injury, but he was relatively productive while he was in the lineup, as he started the first 8 games. His highlights include 3 catches for 40 yards and a TD against Indiana, 5 for 40 against Michigan State, and 4 for 76 against Iowa. His small frame helps him slip past defenders to get open downfield, though his YPR is more reflective of a possession style receiver. Also, in his 2 years, he has caught 71 passes but has scored only 1 career TD, which borders on amazing. Mathews is a bigger, more physical receiver who has 10 starts this season. After catching 5 passes for 68 yards and a TD against Notre Dame, he went 4 games without a catch, but he has come on recently, catching 7 passes for 70 yards against Penn State and 4 for 53 last weekend against Wisconsin. He's been a steady if unspectacular contributor (39, 35 receptions the past 2 seasons) throughout his career. Hemmingway has been the other consistent starter, with 9 on the season. He caught 5 passes for 103 yards in the opener, but has been inconsistent since then, catching 2 passes for 87 yards against Illinois but not doing much else. He is a tall and physical receiver who could create some matchup problems, but he has not been able to create much separation this season.
Ohio product Roundtree appears to be the most explosive of the bunch, as his speed and agility can create matchup problems for opposing secondaries. After barely playing at all in the first 8 games, he has started the past 3 and has blown out of the gate in all of them. The past 3 weeks, he has 4 catches for 92 yards against Illinois, 10 for 126 yards and a TD against Purdue, and 7 for 56 yards and a TD against Wisconsin. He gets open all over the field and has quickly established himself as the most dangerous receiver for the Wolverines. Sophomore Darryl Stonum (#22) has also been a spot starter, with 3 on the year. He has 12 catches for 189 yards and a TD, roughly equal to last year's production. He caught 5 passes for 97 yards and a TD against Michigan State and chipped in 4 for 54 yards against Notre Dame, so he cannot be discounted as a threat in this offense. Sophomore Kelvin Grady (#19) and senior LaTerryal Savoy (#82) round out the primary chart. Savoy has caught at least a pass in each of the past 5 games, so he is likely to see the field in what could be his last college game.
WR Rating: C+
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus Ohio State WRs
Roundtree: 23 catches, 318 yards, 3 TDs, 13.8 YPR
Mathews: 23 catches, 285 yards, 1 TD, 12.4 YPR
Odoms: 22 catches, 272 yards, 1 TD, 12.4 YPR
Hemmingway: 15 catches, 263 yards, 2 TDs, 17.5 YPR
Posey: 47 catches, 689 yards, 7 TDs, 14.7 YPR
Sanzenbacher: 26 catches, 495 yards, 6 TDs, 19.0 YPR
Carter: 13 catches, 176 yards, 1 TD, 13.5 YPR
Small: 15 catches, 175 yards, 0 TDs, 11.7 YPR
No one stands out here in terms of numbers for the Wolverines. This is a relatively experienced group of Michigan receivers, but none of the upperclassmen have set themselves apart or become the big time threat that the Wolverines needed during the meat of conference play. Roundtree has quickly established himself as an explosive weapon though, so perhaps the Wolverines have a brighter future in that regard. As a group they have not found the end zone much, something that underlies part of the problem for the Wolverine offense to get the big play and get the ball downfield. The Buckeyes are a young group, but the receivers have established themselves as big play threats and Posey in particular should be honored at the end of the season with conference recognition. His role in the vertical passing game keeps defenses honest and makes it very difficult to play against the Pryor run threat. Sanzenbacher has also emerged as a threat for the offense this season, and this combination should terrorize defenses as Pryor develops his reads and progressions and if the line continues to block better, allowing plays to open up downfield. Carter has also emerged as a future star. Roundtree is the only player that really scares opposing defenses, so despite the experience and depth, the Buckeyes get the edge on playmaking and production.
Edge: Ohio State
Tight Ends
TE #86 Kevin Koger (6-4, 249, SO, Whitmer HS, Toledo, OH)
Koger is another young player who could develop into a good player at a position that has seen Michigan produce quite a few good players in the recent past. He has 16 receptions for 220 yards and 2 TDs thus far, which is in line with what most of the receivers have produced. He is a big and physical presence who can get open over the middle, though he has had a tendency to drop critical passes this season. Backups Martell Webb (#80) and Brandon Moore (#88) play some in 2 TE sets, but are not real receiving threats.
TE Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus Ohio State TEs
Koger: 16 catches, 220 yards, 2 TDs, 13.8 YPR
Ballard: 13 catches, 126 yards, 0 TDs, 9.7 YPR
Koger is a younger player who looks like he could develop into a good one if he continues to progress with his blocking and he develops surer hands. For the Buckeyes, they do not utilize their TE in the passing game much, but Ballard has been a credible blocker and occasional contributor in the passing game. Given the extensive experience edge, the Buckeyes come out slightly ahead here.
Edge: Ohio State
Offensive Line
LT #71 Mark Ortmann (6-7, 284, SR, Klein HS, Klein, TX)
LG #52 Stephen Schilling (6-5, 304, JR, Bellevue HS, Bellevue, WA)
C #60 David Moosman (6-5, 286, JR, Libertyville HS, Libertyville, IL)
RG #65 Patrick Omameh (6-4, 276, FR, St. Francis DeSales HS, Columbus, OH)
RT #79 Perry Dorrestein (6-7, 306, JR, Plainfield Central HS, Plainfield, IL)
The line has been all over the place in 2009 due to injuries and ineffective play. The loss of Molk as the anchor in the middle has really hindered the Wolverines, as they won their first 3 games and were competitive against Penn State as long as he was in there. In his absence, the line has faltered, both to find someone to replace him and in general. The left side of the line continues to be a point of stability for the Wolverines, as Ortmann and Schilling have started every game. Ortmann started 9 games at LT last season, and he also has started at RT and LG in his career. He is a bit undersized for a tackle, but he has good mobility and his height gives him good leverage. Schilling is perhaps the best player of the group. He entered 2009 having already been a 2 year starter, and he has switched over from the RT spot to man LG this season. He has good power and is a very effective run blocker on the interior, but obviously has the versatility to play the tackle spots as well. He missed the Ohio State game last year due to injury, so he will be eager to get out there Saturday. Moosman started all 12 games at RG last season, and in the first 3 games this year, he was effective there as well. Sadly, he is not much of a center, and his switch to the middle after Molk's injury has been painful to watch as he has tried in vain to adjust to the shotgun snap. He's dribbled many snaps back to Forcier and has gunned a few past him as well, including the infamous snap during the Penn State game that went for a safety out of the end zone. What is lost is that he is actually an effective run blocker with good agility, and if he can switch back to guard in the future, he will be a solid player for the Wolverines. The right side of the line has been a mess. 4 different players have started at RG. Ohio product Omameh has started the previous 2 and seems to have the job. The coaches seem happy with his development, and he is another smaller, more agile lineman that fits the newer Michigan mold. He seems to have plenty of upside. The RT position has also been in flux. Dorrestein has made 7 starts over the course of the season, despite not beginning the season in the lineup. He had previous starting experience last season at LT and RT and was the primary backup at both tackle spots in 2008. He is a big, physical lineman who is more in the traditional Michigan model. He has been dealing with injuries late in the season.
The backups include a variety of players with game experience, including several who have starts in their career. Dorrestein (#79) is the primary backup at LT. Program veteran senior Tim McAvoy (#62, 6-6, 291) has a half dozen starts at the guard spots in his career and now is the primary backup at C. Sophomore Mark Huyge (#72, 6-6, 288) is the primary backup at RT and has starts at both RT (4) and RG (5) this season. He is versatile and has plenty of experience, so he is a capable backup. At guard, junior John Ferrara (#74, 6-4, 279) started last year's Ohio State game at LG, one of his 5 starts on the season in 2008. This year, he made one start at RG and continues to serve as a backup there. A pair of freshmen, Elliott Mealer (#57, 6-6, 299) and Ricky Barnum (#56, 6-2, 275) man the LG spot but play sparingly there.
OL Rating: C+
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus Ohio State OL
The Wolverines have a reasonably good run blocking line, but they have given up 26 sacks and have been inadequate blocking in the passing game. They also couldn't produce a yard in 4 tries against Illinois, which led to an implosion and the continued downward spiral of the Michigan season. The loss of David Molk has really hurt this unit, and they have not been able to compensate for it either at center or along the line as a whole. The flux on the right side has also been disruptive. For the Buckeyes, the line is finally beginning to impose their will in the running game after a long stretch of criticism. The Buckeye unit is finally gelling and appears to be playing at their highest level to date, a testament to their work ethic and their desire to improve over the course of the season. The Buckeye front 7 is ferocious, and should cause plenty of problems for the Wolverine line on Saturday. This Michigan unit is improved from last year, but not enough to result in a consistently high level of play.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Offensive Analysis
The Wolverines have several veteran players at key positions, but none have stood out as being especially high quality. This offense appears to still be a significant work in progress despite the improved production; and it is the freshmen...Forcier, Robinson, Smith, Roundtree...who really hold the key to the long term success of this scheme (not to mention this coach) in their hands. The upperclassmen like Brown, Minor, Mathews, Ortmann, and Schilling have been solid contributors but have not achieved the level of success as many of their predecessors at Michigan had. As for this game itself, the Wolverines will have to establish a ground attack early with Brown or Minor, and then try and get the ball downfield to Roundtree and play a solid 60 minute, turnover-free football game. That might open up some opportunities for completions on the wings, provided Forcier has the time and ability to deliver the ball quickly and on target. Grabbing some turnovers wouldn't hut them either, and they had better protect the ball carefully against the Buckeyes, who are constantly itching to set their offense up with a short field and watch Pryor work his magic or the backs pound the opponent into oblivion...if they don't score themselves, that is. It is again a daunting task, finishing the season against one of the nation's best defenses with a fledgling offense that has struggled most of the year in a game that has postseason implications for Michigan, but it is what the Wolverines are faced with. Look for them to pull out all the stops, use every player available, and do everything they can to be competitive in this, the only football game they could truly hang their collective hats on if they manage to salvage a win, given Notre Dame's implosion this year. If they do not win, or at least produce a competitive product, the 2009 season will go down as another disaster, and fans and alumni alike will all be wondering how much better the prospects for 2010 really are.
Overall Offensive Rating: B-
2009 Michigan Wolverines Defensive PreviewAnd then there is embattled coach Rich Rodriguez. Since Fielding Yost took over in 1901 and until Lloyd Carr retired in 2007, there had been only 10 head coaches at Michigan. Nine of those had winning records and a winning percentage of at least .600 in their first season. Only Bump Elliot (4-5) had a losing record in year one. Until Rodriguez. Of the coaches who made it to year 3, their records in year 2 were: 11-0 (Yost), 8-0-1 (Kipke), 6-2 (Crisler), 6-2-1 (Oosterbaan), 5-4 (Elliott), 9-1 (Bo), 10-2 (Moeller), and 8-4 (Carr). All therefore had winning records. Until Rodriguez...or will he not even make it to year 3? Make no mistake about it, Rodriguez will be under tremendous pressure to get the program turned around quickly and decisively next year, if he even has that chance. A win over the Buckeyes could give him something significant to build on for 2010 and might just save his job. A crushing home defeat would make this year a virtual waste and almost certainly expedite his exodus. So the coach has just as much, if not more, riding on this game as the players do.
Michigan's offense has shown significant improvement from a year ago, including stretches of highly effective play, combined with some spells of mediocrity and only sporadic signs of poor play that plagued the team for most of 2008. As the defense has been so weak, it has been up to the offense to try and carry the Wolverines, and though they've been competitive in most conference games, they have been unable to win any of their previous 6. In total yardage, they are averaging 391.4 yards per game, ranked 56th nationally. They have attained a reasonable balance, as their rushing attack averages 195.8 yards per game, which ranks an impressive 21st nationally. The passing game is averaging only 210.6 yards a game, however, ranking only 87th. Michigan is also scoring 31.3 points per contest, up 10 from their average entering last season's game and ranking 27th nationally. Michigan's total of 219 first downs is good for 33rd nationally, and their 38.5% conversion percentage on third downs ranks a respectable 55th. What has killed Michigan is their turnover margin, which is an abysmal -0.73, which ties them for 102nd nationally (Ohio State ranks 7th nationally at +1.09). They have given the ball away at far too many critical times, including 11 interceptions thrown and 12 fumbles lost. It will be interesting to see what kind of gameplan the Wolverines have for the Buckeyes, and how well they are able to execute that, but the bottom line is if they can't hang on to the football, it doesn't matter how much better the offense is than last year, it's still going to be a long Saturday for the Wolverines.
Quarterbacks
QB #5 Tate Forcier (6-1, 188, FR, Scripps Ranch HS, San Diego, CA)
QB #16 Denard Robinson (6-0, 185, FR, Deerfield Beach HS, Deerfield Beach, FL)
Tate Forcier entered the season with a cool brashness that endeared him to Michigan fans aching for a playmaker to run the offense. For the most part, he's been solid, though he has made his share of freshman mistakes as well. He started off the year by making an immediate impact, throwing for 179 yards and 3 TDs against Western Michigan in the opener. He followed that with his magical drive to beat the Irish in week 2, throwing for 240 yards and 2 TDs and rushing for 70 yards and a score in the game. After a quiet game against Eastern Michigan (68 yards passing), he threw for 184 yards and 2 TDs and ran for another as the Wolverines beat Indiana, pushing their record to 4-0. In the loss to Michigan State in the 5th game, he overcame a slow start to lead the team to 2 late scores to push the game into OT. He threw for 223 yards and 2 TDs in the game and still looked like a very solid Big Ten QB. In the Iowa game, however, he was highly ineffective to the point of being benched at the end, throwing for only 94 yards on 8 of 19 passing with an INT. After a light week of work against Delaware State, he took the field against Penn State and was again unable to move the offense, completing only 13 of 30 for 140 yards and an INT. He bounced back to throw for 257 against Illinois and for 212 yards and a TD (with a TD rushing) against Purdue, but the Wolverines still lost both games. Last week against Wisconsin, he completed a very high percentage (20/26) for 188 yards and 2 TDs, but he also rushed for -16 yards and threw a pick as the Wolverines dropped their 4th in a row and their 6th straight conference game. Forcier has been slowed by injuries, but he has persevered to still play reasonably well and he appears to have a good deal of upside if he continues to develop and stays healthy. Though he's a threat to gain big yards on a critical scramble, he's not overly effective running the ball, as he's topped the 40 yard mark only once this year on the ground. He takes quite a few sacks (24) and doesn't seem to throw deep much, both of which could be significant problems Saturday if he can't avoid the Buckeye rush or loosen the defense up with some effective shots downfield.
Fellow freshman Robinson is more of a running quarterback who has shown flashes of big play ability but has turned the ball over way, way too much to be considered a starting QB at this point. He hasn't thrown much, and when he has, it's been mostly ugly other than the Delaware State game (3/4, 85 yards, 2 TDs). He threw 2 picks in 4 attempts against Eastern Michigan (0/4), threw a critical interception at the end of the Iowa game, and hasn't topped 40 yards passing in any other game this season. On the ground, he's been effective against MAC schools (11/74 TD against Western, 3/60 2 TDs against Eastern) and Delaware State (6/54 TD), but that's about it. He had a decent game against Iowa in that regard (9/49, TD) but hasn't broken 36 yards rushing in any other Big Ten contest. It is likely that he will play on Saturday, but until he can prove he can throw the ball effectively or accurately (he was 1/5 last week against Wisconsin) the Buckeyes will be keying on the run when he is in there, and he will be relegated to running some version of the Wildcat as he has done for much of the season.
Holdover Nick Sheridan (#8) is the backup. He's played in 2 blowouts and that's about it.
QB Rating: C+
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus Ohio State QBs
Forcier: 142/243 (58.4%), 1824 yards, 12 TDs, 6 INTs, 132.8 rating; 112/230, 3 TDs
Robinson: 12/27 (44.4%), 185 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs, 96.8 rating; 59/320, 5 TDs
Pryor: 135/241 (56.0%), 1761 yards, 15 TDs, 9 INTs, 130.5 rating; 123/633, 7 TDs
Both teams have young QBs who have had their share of growing pains this season. However, Pryor has demonstrated his explosiveness running the football, has completed a good number of passes downfield for big plays, and has shown significant improvement in the past month in crunch time, indicating his increasing maturity level and his development over the course of the season. On the other side, Forcier seems to be a better fit for this offense than either of his predecessors last season, though he doesn't complete an especially high percentage of throws, doesn't throw downfield very often, and isn't as much of a consistent threat on the ground as maybe the scheme calls for. Robinson seems more of a fit in the running game, but his passing borders on atrocious much of the time and he has turned the ball over way too many times, so the defense basically knows what's coming whenever he is in the game and the Wolverines haven't really been able to overcome that. In any event, Forcier appears to be the man in Ann Arbor for the foreseeable future, but Pryor has the Buckeyes once again poised for an outright Big Ten title, which was inconceivable to many less than 2 months ago. He threw 2 TD passes in the blowout win last season, and he looks to be the leader the Buckeyes have been counting on entering this year's version of The Game.
Edge: Ohio State
Running Backs
TB #4 Brandon Minor (6-1, 218, SR, Varina HS, Richmond, VA)
TB #23 Carlos Brown (6-0, 210, SR, Heard County HS, Franklin, GA)
FB #24 Kevin Grady (5-9, 230, SR, East Grand Rapids HS, East Grand Rapids, MI)
FB #44 Mark Moundros (6-1, 233, JR, North Farmington HS, Farmington Hills, MI)
This is one area where the Wolverines have their share of talent, depth, and experience. Minor and Brown have done a lot of alternating as 1 and 1A this season, and each has had their share of good games. Brown has gotten the most starts with 8, though Minor has the most yards with just over 500 and the most TDs with 8. Minor's success has been sporadic, and is basically confined to 5 games: Notre Dame, Indiana, Iowa, Penn State, Purdue. Against Notre Dame, he gained 106 yards on 16 carries, scoring a TD. In the Indiana game, he gained 50 yards on 12 carries and scored a TD. Against Iowa, he rushed 22 times for 95 yards and scored 2 TDs. The Penn State game saw him gain 48 yards on 12 carries and score the team's only TD. Finally, he exploded in the Purdue game, having his best game by far as he carried 19 times for 154 yards and scored 3 TDs. In the other 6 Michigan games to this point, his high is only 26 yards on the ground (last week against Wisconsin) and he has no TDs. When he is on, he is a big and powerful back who can barrel between the tackles and has a nice acceleration when he hits the hole. He is no threat out of the backfield at all, having caught only one pass this year. Brown has also gained the bulk of his yards in only 4 games: Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Illinois. Against Western he gained 54 yards on 10 carries, and against Eastern he had 13 carries for 187 yards and 2 TDs. He gained 83 yards on 11 carries with a TD and caught a 61 yard pass TD against Indiana, and he carried 25 times for 94 yards and a TD against Illinois. Other than those 4 games, his high is 35 yards against Penn State. So, both backs have had their share of relatively good games, but both have also disappeared in stretches as well. It will be interesting to see which back (if either) is featured on Saturday, as both are seniors and have a good deal of experience. In last year's game, Minor had 14 carries for 67 yards and a TD, whereas Minor had 3 carries for 3 yards and caught one of the team's 8 total completions...if that is anything to go on. Reports are Minor is doubtful for the game as well, so it could be Brown's show this Saturday.
Backing up Minor and Brown is sophomore Michael Shaw (#20) who carried 12 times for 41 yards in last year's game. In 2009, he's been limited in his duty, starting two games and gaining 178 yards and scoring 2 TDs on only 35 carries. Other than the early season blowouts, he hasn't gotten much work. One player to keep an eye on though is freshman Vincent Smith (#2). Though he is listed as 4th on the depth chart, he appears to be an explosive scatback (5-6, 168) with some real upside both rushing and catching the football, and his workload has increased in recent games. He rushed for 166 yards and a TD in his first significant action against Delaware State, and last week against Wisconsin he carried 8 times for 28 yards and caught 7 passes for 54 yards and a TD, so he could very well be a significant part of the gameplan this weekend. Much like freshmen backs at Wisconsin and Minnesota, he appears to be a player in the conference to keep an eye on going forward.
At fullback, Grady and Moundros are solid players who can block and also handle the football once in a great while. Grady had 8 carries for 73 yards and a score against Delaware State, but has only 2 other carries and 3 receptions all season. Moundros has no catches or carries this season. Both players have similar size and can be effective blocking in the interior.
RB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus Ohio State RBs
Minor: 96/502 yards, 8 TDs, 5.2 YPC; 1 rec/1 yard, 0 TDs, 1.0 YPR
Brown: 81/480 yards, 4 TDs, 5.9 YPC; 9 rec/126 yards, 1 TD, 14.0 YPR
Saine: 119/610 yards, 3 TDs, 5.1 YPC; 14 rec/164 yards, 1 TD, 11.7 YPR
Herron: 120/462 yards, 7 TDs, 3.9 YPC; 6 rec/31 yards, 0 TDs, 5.2 YPR
Though Minor and Brown have some talent, neither Wolverine back has really been able to get it going consistently, with each player showing flashes of brilliance one game and then being replaced by someone else entirely in another. Minor seems to run the hardest of the bunch, particularly between the tackles, though Brown has some tough runs as well and may have a bit more speed. Shaw, a converted WR, has quite a bit of speed, so his carries are sporadic and often hit or miss. Smith is the wild card and the most intriguing player of the bunch, though he would face quite an upgrade in competition this weekend. On the flip side, Buckeye and Wolverine fans alike know that Chris Wells beat Michigan like a rented mule, and the Buckeyes will miss his 134 yards and a TD from last season and his 222 yards and 2 TDs on 39 carries the year before. Injuries and inconsistent blocking have prevented either Buckeye back from establishing Wellsian dominance thus far this season, but both appear to be healthy at just the right time for a big close to the season. Herron burned Michigan for 80 yards and 2 TDs last year on just 8 carries, so he will have a great deal of confidence going in. Saine has quietly established himself as a weapon for the Buckeyes carrying and catching the football, and his versatility and playmaking will also come in handy this weekend. Both teams have quality players with some depth and a good deal of experience, but give the Buckeyes a slight edge for more consistency while healthy and more success against the opposition in recent years. The one-two combination of Herron and Saine is slightly more complete and slightly more dangerous than Minor and Brown, but watch out for Smith as well. If Minor can't play, it will also hurt the Wolverines.
Edge: Ohio State
Wide Receivers
WR-X #13 Greg Mathews (6-3, 209, SR, Edgewater HS, Orlando, FL)
WR-Y #9 Martavious Odoms (5-9, 172, SO, Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
WR-Y #12 Roy Roundtree (6-0, 170, FR, Trotwood-Madison HS, Trotwood, OH)
WR-Z #22 Junior Hemmingway (6-1, 220, SO, Conway HS, Conway, SC)
This is another veteran group with some experience that could help the Wolverines stay competitive on Saturday. All 4 of these players bring something a little different to the table, and collectively this is a pretty decent group. Of the 8 passes Michigan completed in last season's game, Odoms caught 5 (for 37 yards) and had a carry for 8 yards. He has 22 catches for 272 yards thus far in 2009 after leading the team last season with 49 catches for 443 yards. He has been out the past 3 games with an injury, but he was relatively productive while he was in the lineup, as he started the first 8 games. His highlights include 3 catches for 40 yards and a TD against Indiana, 5 for 40 against Michigan State, and 4 for 76 against Iowa. His small frame helps him slip past defenders to get open downfield, though his YPR is more reflective of a possession style receiver. Also, in his 2 years, he has caught 71 passes but has scored only 1 career TD, which borders on amazing. Mathews is a bigger, more physical receiver who has 10 starts this season. After catching 5 passes for 68 yards and a TD against Notre Dame, he went 4 games without a catch, but he has come on recently, catching 7 passes for 70 yards against Penn State and 4 for 53 last weekend against Wisconsin. He's been a steady if unspectacular contributor (39, 35 receptions the past 2 seasons) throughout his career. Hemmingway has been the other consistent starter, with 9 on the season. He caught 5 passes for 103 yards in the opener, but has been inconsistent since then, catching 2 passes for 87 yards against Illinois but not doing much else. He is a tall and physical receiver who could create some matchup problems, but he has not been able to create much separation this season.
Ohio product Roundtree appears to be the most explosive of the bunch, as his speed and agility can create matchup problems for opposing secondaries. After barely playing at all in the first 8 games, he has started the past 3 and has blown out of the gate in all of them. The past 3 weeks, he has 4 catches for 92 yards against Illinois, 10 for 126 yards and a TD against Purdue, and 7 for 56 yards and a TD against Wisconsin. He gets open all over the field and has quickly established himself as the most dangerous receiver for the Wolverines. Sophomore Darryl Stonum (#22) has also been a spot starter, with 3 on the year. He has 12 catches for 189 yards and a TD, roughly equal to last year's production. He caught 5 passes for 97 yards and a TD against Michigan State and chipped in 4 for 54 yards against Notre Dame, so he cannot be discounted as a threat in this offense. Sophomore Kelvin Grady (#19) and senior LaTerryal Savoy (#82) round out the primary chart. Savoy has caught at least a pass in each of the past 5 games, so he is likely to see the field in what could be his last college game.
WR Rating: C+
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus Ohio State WRs
Roundtree: 23 catches, 318 yards, 3 TDs, 13.8 YPR
Mathews: 23 catches, 285 yards, 1 TD, 12.4 YPR
Odoms: 22 catches, 272 yards, 1 TD, 12.4 YPR
Hemmingway: 15 catches, 263 yards, 2 TDs, 17.5 YPR
Posey: 47 catches, 689 yards, 7 TDs, 14.7 YPR
Sanzenbacher: 26 catches, 495 yards, 6 TDs, 19.0 YPR
Carter: 13 catches, 176 yards, 1 TD, 13.5 YPR
Small: 15 catches, 175 yards, 0 TDs, 11.7 YPR
No one stands out here in terms of numbers for the Wolverines. This is a relatively experienced group of Michigan receivers, but none of the upperclassmen have set themselves apart or become the big time threat that the Wolverines needed during the meat of conference play. Roundtree has quickly established himself as an explosive weapon though, so perhaps the Wolverines have a brighter future in that regard. As a group they have not found the end zone much, something that underlies part of the problem for the Wolverine offense to get the big play and get the ball downfield. The Buckeyes are a young group, but the receivers have established themselves as big play threats and Posey in particular should be honored at the end of the season with conference recognition. His role in the vertical passing game keeps defenses honest and makes it very difficult to play against the Pryor run threat. Sanzenbacher has also emerged as a threat for the offense this season, and this combination should terrorize defenses as Pryor develops his reads and progressions and if the line continues to block better, allowing plays to open up downfield. Carter has also emerged as a future star. Roundtree is the only player that really scares opposing defenses, so despite the experience and depth, the Buckeyes get the edge on playmaking and production.
Edge: Ohio State
Tight Ends
TE #86 Kevin Koger (6-4, 249, SO, Whitmer HS, Toledo, OH)
Koger is another young player who could develop into a good player at a position that has seen Michigan produce quite a few good players in the recent past. He has 16 receptions for 220 yards and 2 TDs thus far, which is in line with what most of the receivers have produced. He is a big and physical presence who can get open over the middle, though he has had a tendency to drop critical passes this season. Backups Martell Webb (#80) and Brandon Moore (#88) play some in 2 TE sets, but are not real receiving threats.
TE Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus Ohio State TEs
Koger: 16 catches, 220 yards, 2 TDs, 13.8 YPR
Ballard: 13 catches, 126 yards, 0 TDs, 9.7 YPR
Koger is a younger player who looks like he could develop into a good one if he continues to progress with his blocking and he develops surer hands. For the Buckeyes, they do not utilize their TE in the passing game much, but Ballard has been a credible blocker and occasional contributor in the passing game. Given the extensive experience edge, the Buckeyes come out slightly ahead here.
Edge: Ohio State
Offensive Line
LT #71 Mark Ortmann (6-7, 284, SR, Klein HS, Klein, TX)
LG #52 Stephen Schilling (6-5, 304, JR, Bellevue HS, Bellevue, WA)
C #60 David Moosman (6-5, 286, JR, Libertyville HS, Libertyville, IL)
RG #65 Patrick Omameh (6-4, 276, FR, St. Francis DeSales HS, Columbus, OH)
RT #79 Perry Dorrestein (6-7, 306, JR, Plainfield Central HS, Plainfield, IL)
The line has been all over the place in 2009 due to injuries and ineffective play. The loss of Molk as the anchor in the middle has really hindered the Wolverines, as they won their first 3 games and were competitive against Penn State as long as he was in there. In his absence, the line has faltered, both to find someone to replace him and in general. The left side of the line continues to be a point of stability for the Wolverines, as Ortmann and Schilling have started every game. Ortmann started 9 games at LT last season, and he also has started at RT and LG in his career. He is a bit undersized for a tackle, but he has good mobility and his height gives him good leverage. Schilling is perhaps the best player of the group. He entered 2009 having already been a 2 year starter, and he has switched over from the RT spot to man LG this season. He has good power and is a very effective run blocker on the interior, but obviously has the versatility to play the tackle spots as well. He missed the Ohio State game last year due to injury, so he will be eager to get out there Saturday. Moosman started all 12 games at RG last season, and in the first 3 games this year, he was effective there as well. Sadly, he is not much of a center, and his switch to the middle after Molk's injury has been painful to watch as he has tried in vain to adjust to the shotgun snap. He's dribbled many snaps back to Forcier and has gunned a few past him as well, including the infamous snap during the Penn State game that went for a safety out of the end zone. What is lost is that he is actually an effective run blocker with good agility, and if he can switch back to guard in the future, he will be a solid player for the Wolverines. The right side of the line has been a mess. 4 different players have started at RG. Ohio product Omameh has started the previous 2 and seems to have the job. The coaches seem happy with his development, and he is another smaller, more agile lineman that fits the newer Michigan mold. He seems to have plenty of upside. The RT position has also been in flux. Dorrestein has made 7 starts over the course of the season, despite not beginning the season in the lineup. He had previous starting experience last season at LT and RT and was the primary backup at both tackle spots in 2008. He is a big, physical lineman who is more in the traditional Michigan model. He has been dealing with injuries late in the season.
The backups include a variety of players with game experience, including several who have starts in their career. Dorrestein (#79) is the primary backup at LT. Program veteran senior Tim McAvoy (#62, 6-6, 291) has a half dozen starts at the guard spots in his career and now is the primary backup at C. Sophomore Mark Huyge (#72, 6-6, 288) is the primary backup at RT and has starts at both RT (4) and RG (5) this season. He is versatile and has plenty of experience, so he is a capable backup. At guard, junior John Ferrara (#74, 6-4, 279) started last year's Ohio State game at LG, one of his 5 starts on the season in 2008. This year, he made one start at RG and continues to serve as a backup there. A pair of freshmen, Elliott Mealer (#57, 6-6, 299) and Ricky Barnum (#56, 6-2, 275) man the LG spot but play sparingly there.
OL Rating: C+
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus Ohio State OL
The Wolverines have a reasonably good run blocking line, but they have given up 26 sacks and have been inadequate blocking in the passing game. They also couldn't produce a yard in 4 tries against Illinois, which led to an implosion and the continued downward spiral of the Michigan season. The loss of David Molk has really hurt this unit, and they have not been able to compensate for it either at center or along the line as a whole. The flux on the right side has also been disruptive. For the Buckeyes, the line is finally beginning to impose their will in the running game after a long stretch of criticism. The Buckeye unit is finally gelling and appears to be playing at their highest level to date, a testament to their work ethic and their desire to improve over the course of the season. The Buckeye front 7 is ferocious, and should cause plenty of problems for the Wolverine line on Saturday. This Michigan unit is improved from last year, but not enough to result in a consistently high level of play.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Offensive Analysis
The Wolverines have several veteran players at key positions, but none have stood out as being especially high quality. This offense appears to still be a significant work in progress despite the improved production; and it is the freshmen...Forcier, Robinson, Smith, Roundtree...who really hold the key to the long term success of this scheme (not to mention this coach) in their hands. The upperclassmen like Brown, Minor, Mathews, Ortmann, and Schilling have been solid contributors but have not achieved the level of success as many of their predecessors at Michigan had. As for this game itself, the Wolverines will have to establish a ground attack early with Brown or Minor, and then try and get the ball downfield to Roundtree and play a solid 60 minute, turnover-free football game. That might open up some opportunities for completions on the wings, provided Forcier has the time and ability to deliver the ball quickly and on target. Grabbing some turnovers wouldn't hut them either, and they had better protect the ball carefully against the Buckeyes, who are constantly itching to set their offense up with a short field and watch Pryor work his magic or the backs pound the opponent into oblivion...if they don't score themselves, that is. It is again a daunting task, finishing the season against one of the nation's best defenses with a fledgling offense that has struggled most of the year in a game that has postseason implications for Michigan, but it is what the Wolverines are faced with. Look for them to pull out all the stops, use every player available, and do everything they can to be competitive in this, the only football game they could truly hang their collective hats on if they manage to salvage a win, given Notre Dame's implosion this year. If they do not win, or at least produce a competitive product, the 2009 season will go down as another disaster, and fans and alumni alike will all be wondering how much better the prospects for 2010 really are.
Overall Offensive Rating: B-
Returning Starters: 5
For the third season in a row, Michigan is under the direction of a first year coordinator on the defensive side of the ball. After struggling to make stops in 2008, head coach Rich Rodriguez hired former Syracuse head man, Greg Robinson. Prior to taking the Syracuse job (2005-2008), Robinson was a co-defensive coordinator under Mack Brown at Texas (2004) where he also had responsibility for the linebackers. He brings with him NFL experience as well, as prior to returning to college in 2004 he was the defensive coordinator for the Jets (1994), Broncos (1995-2000) and Chiefs (2001-2003). He also coached D-Line with the Jets from 1990 to 1993. A former linebacker at Bakersfield Community College (1970-71) and Pacific (1972-73), Robinson began his coaching career at the latter in 1975. In 1977 Robinson took a position at Cal State Fullerton, before then moving on to the ACC's North Carolina State for two season (1980-81). He then went back west to coach UCLA's D-line from 1982 - 1988 where he helped the Bruins win 3 Rose Bowls (1982, 83, 85). In 1989 he was UCLA's offensive coordinator.
Stats.......|Score..|Tot.Yds..|Rush..|Pass..|INT.| Fum.|Sack.|1stD..|3rd D..|.PCT..|Red Zone.|.PCT.|RZ TDs.|PCT.|TOF..|
Michigan....|.28.1..|..400.2..|164.7.|235.5.|.10.| .5..|.19..|.215..|64-168.|.38%..|.37-42...|.88%.|.23-43.|55%.|33:38|
Ohio State..|.12.4..|..258.3..|.83.7.|174.5.|.19.|..9..|.28..|.161..|50-159.|.31%..|.16-20...|.80%.|.12-20.|60%.|29:32|
* TOF = Time on Field (Opponent's T.O.P)
Once one of the Big Ten's most consistent and formidable units, the Wolverines have struggled in recent years and to the dismay of Michigan fans those struggles continue in 2009. Teams have had little trouble establishing the run against Michigan's 3-4 front, gashing the Wolverines for 164.7 yards per contest at 4.3 yards per carry. The Buckeyes, conversely, have continued to improve their rushing numbers each week after starting the season against run heavy Navy. Despite affording teams 19 TDs from their ground game, Michigan's pass defense has also been suspect, allowing 12.3 yards per reception and 17 TDs. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, limit oppoosing teams to 10 yards per reception and have yielded only 9 passing scores all season. It doesn't get better for Michigan when it comes to creating turnovers, as they have only 15 all season. The Buckeyes better than number with their 19 INTs, but have also gained 9 loose footballs. As the statistics attest, Michigan has also struggled creating pressure on the QB, having a scant 19 sacks compared to Ohio State's 28. As discussed below, the bulk of Michigan's backfiled presence comes from one man (Brandon Graham) while the Buckeyes are able to get as many as 12 or 13 involved.
To say it's been a tough year for Michigan's defense is an understatement. There is a signifigant lack of depth available to Robinson, and Michigan has started as many as 2 walk-ons in games as a result. While there is some next level talent, most notably Graham, the overall "feel" of the unit is that it is small and slow. These words seem harsh, but are an unfortunate reality for the 2009 unit. As the final indicator of this state of affairs, consider that Michigan yields 1 point for every 14.2 yards given up (or 1 TD per 99.4) and 1 point per ever 2.5 plays run against them (17.4 plays per TD). The Buckeyes, on the other hand, require 20.9 yards per point (146.2 per TD) and 5.2 plays (36.1 per TD). All that said, this being The Game, you might throw all the numbers out the window. Michigan will have to play much better than they have throughout 2009, but they should be amped up and ready to go as they attempt to stop Ohio State's 5-game win steak against them.
Stats.......|Score..|Tot.Yds..|Rush..|Pass..|INT.| Fum.|Sack.|1stD..|3rd D..|.PCT..|Red Zone.|.PCT.|RZ TDs.|PCT.|TOF..|
Michigan....|.28.1..|..400.2..|164.7.|235.5.|.10.| .5..|.19..|.215..|64-168.|.38%..|.37-42...|.88%.|.23-43.|55%.|33:38|
Ohio State..|.12.4..|..258.3..|.83.7.|174.5.|.19.|..9..|.28..|.161..|50-159.|.31%..|.16-20...|.80%.|.12-20.|60%.|29:32|
* TOF = Time on Field (Opponent's T.O.P)
Once one of the Big Ten's most consistent and formidable units, the Wolverines have struggled in recent years and to the dismay of Michigan fans those struggles continue in 2009. Teams have had little trouble establishing the run against Michigan's 3-4 front, gashing the Wolverines for 164.7 yards per contest at 4.3 yards per carry. The Buckeyes, conversely, have continued to improve their rushing numbers each week after starting the season against run heavy Navy. Despite affording teams 19 TDs from their ground game, Michigan's pass defense has also been suspect, allowing 12.3 yards per reception and 17 TDs. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, limit oppoosing teams to 10 yards per reception and have yielded only 9 passing scores all season. It doesn't get better for Michigan when it comes to creating turnovers, as they have only 15 all season. The Buckeyes better than number with their 19 INTs, but have also gained 9 loose footballs. As the statistics attest, Michigan has also struggled creating pressure on the QB, having a scant 19 sacks compared to Ohio State's 28. As discussed below, the bulk of Michigan's backfiled presence comes from one man (Brandon Graham) while the Buckeyes are able to get as many as 12 or 13 involved.
To say it's been a tough year for Michigan's defense is an understatement. There is a signifigant lack of depth available to Robinson, and Michigan has started as many as 2 walk-ons in games as a result. While there is some next level talent, most notably Graham, the overall "feel" of the unit is that it is small and slow. These words seem harsh, but are an unfortunate reality for the 2009 unit. As the final indicator of this state of affairs, consider that Michigan yields 1 point for every 14.2 yards given up (or 1 TD per 99.4) and 1 point per ever 2.5 plays run against them (17.4 plays per TD). The Buckeyes, on the other hand, require 20.9 yards per point (146.2 per TD) and 5.2 plays (36.1 per TD). All that said, this being The Game, you might throw all the numbers out the window. Michigan will have to play much better than they have throughout 2009, but they should be amped up and ready to go as they attempt to stop Ohio State's 5-game win steak against them.
Defensive Line
DE #55 Brandon Graham (6-2, 263, Sr.)
DT #53 Ryan Van Bergen (6-6, 271, So.)
NT #68 Mike Martin (6-2, 292, So.)
If you've only watched 5 minutes of Michigan football this season, you already know that DE Brandon Graham is "the real deal." For all of the struggles this season none of the blame can be laid on his very able shoulders. Graham ran a 10.9 100 in high school, so he's got the speed. He's also established this season, as the line's premier threat, that he's got the strength to battle through double and triple teams. Even while he's keyed on, he's put up excellent numbers in this his final go around. He has made 51 tackles, 21 of which have been behind the LOS and 8.5 of which have been sacks. He also has one of Michigan's fumble recoveries. Van Bergen provides the bulk and has shown good hustle. He is the line's (and team's) second most likely Wolverine to get to the QB and has improved on his freshman campaign which saw only limited action. He has 38 tackles, 6.5 for loss with 5 sacks and a fumble recovery. Rounding out the front 3 is Martin. Martin doesn't necessarily have a typical 3-4 lineman build at 271 and is probably better suited for a 4-3 look. Nonetheless, he can get off the ball well and can cause disruption in the offensive backfield. Second among linemen with 46 tackles, he also has 7.5 TFLs and a sack.
Ends: #39 Will Heininger (6-6, 261, So.), #99 Adam Patterson (6-3, 263, Jr.), and tackles: #92 Greg Banks (6-4, 266, Jr.), #95 Renaldo Sagesse (6-4, 279, Jr.), or #73 William Campbell (6-5, 318, Fr.) provide depth. True freshman Will Campbell is probably the most talented of the resevers and is also one of the few linemen with the bulk to succeed on the interior. While only a freshman, he will see action on Saturday as he has in 10 of 11 games this season. His potential has yet to translate into numbers as he has just 3 tackles with 1 for loss this season. The most productive reserve has been Heininger but he is well behind the starting group with just 10 tackles in 11 games with half a sack. Sagesse has 8 tackles with 2 for loss, while Banks has 4 and Patterson 1.
DL Rating: D+
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU DL
If it were not for Graham the D-Line grade would have to be lower. You can't give up nearly 170 yards a game on the ground and provide inconsistent pressure on the QB and be considered among the elite or even the "average." Graham is excellent, but he cannot do it all. The Buckeyes front 4 has been a consistent force all season long and is widely considered one of the best lines in the nation. While teams can focus on Graham, Ohio State opponents have to account for each of Cam Heyward, Thad Gibson, and Doug Worthington. None of those three have comparable numbers with Graham, but as a group provide far more options and causes for concern. As for depth, the Buckeyes enjoy far more productivity and can rotate as many as 13 linemen in, even in meaningful situations. The Wolverines simply do not enjoy the same luxury in 2009.
Edge: Ohio State
Linebackers
OLB #88 Craig Roh (6-4, 238, Fr.)
MLB #45 Obi Ezeh (6-2, 243, Jr.)
WLB #8 Jonas Mouton (6-2, 228, Jr.)
SLB #3 Stevie Brown (6-0, 211, Sr.)
Though somewhat maligned in his Wolverine career, the LBs are lead by Brown who plays a hybrid safety/linebacker position. Brown can bring the wood and is the team's leader in tackles this season with 73, but the historical knock on him has been his struggles when the ball is in the air. He has been productive in getting behind the LOS with 8 TFLs (second on the team) and a sack and has also recorded an 18 yard INT. Coming into 2009 Ezeh was the team's returning tackles leader by a wide margin. But, as Wolverine fans know, he also missed quite a few as he found himself out of position far too often. Still, with prototypical size, he's got potential. If he's able to put it all together can expect a look from the league. In this, his junior campaign, he has 69 tackles 5 for loss and a fumble recovery. Mouton had health issues the first part of his career, but has been in the lineup since missing the start against Utah in the '08 opener. He's got good athleticism and toughness and has shown improvement as a Wolverine. He is seventh on the team in tackles with 55, 3 coming for loss, and also has a fumble recovery and 1 pick. Roh is a true Freshman and has played reasonably well considering. The former Arizona HS player of the year, he came to Michigan as the nation's No. 8 defensive end (Scout). He's played in 10 of 11 games and has 30 tackles, 7.5 for loss with 2 sacks and a pick.
Reserve LBs include: #58 Brandon Herron (6-2, 220, So.), #81 Steve Watson (6-4, 257, So.), #42 J.B. Fitzgerald (6-3, 232, So.), #25 Kenny Demens (6-1, 236, r-Fr.), #52 Kevin Leach (6-1, 206, So.), #4 Brandon Smith (6-3, 209, r-Fr.), #23 Floyd Simmons (5-10, 190, r-Fr.), and #27 Mike Jones (6-2, 203, Fr.). The most productive reserve is Leach, a walk-on player from Kentwood Michigan, who has 36 tackles, 1 for loss (sack) and a pick. Herron was a solid recruit two years ago, moves well and can make the stop, but needs to become a more consistent contributor. He has 19 tackles, 1 for loss with a pick. Big things are expected of Fitzgerald who played well in spring ball while Mouton recovered from shoulder surgery. He will surely see the field against Ohio State, as he's played in all 11 games this season making 15 tackles with 3 for loss. Smith has 14 tackles in 10 games and if was in on Wisconsin's first series last week. Demens has also played in every game, but has only 7 tackles, while Simmons has played in 8 and has 5 stops, one for loss. Jones has 3 tackles in 6 games.
LB Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU LBs
Tackling has been an issue with Michigan's LB corps for a couple of seasons now and they still need to be more consistent in this area. As the D-Line has struggled, the LBs have done little to slow down opposing ground games while also struggling in coverage, particularly down the middle of the field. The Buckeyes LBs have been playing lights out for the bulk of the season lead by Ross Homan and Brian Rolle. The former leads the team with 4 INTs and tackles, while the latter is just two behind with 82. Michigan's LB corps is probably faster on the whole than in the recent past, but the Buckeyes still enjoy the edge on that score nonetheless. There is a ton of LBs in the rotation for Michigan, but behind the starters only a walk-on has been particularly productive. The Buckeyes are assisted by superior line play and have recorded more stops as a result. Overall the Buckeyes are more consistent tacklers and won't be burned in coverage very often, while the Wolverines need to see improvement in both areas.
Edge: Ohio State
Secondary
LCB 6 Donovan Warren (6-0, 185, Jr.)
SS 32 Jordan Kovacs (5-10, 194, r-Fr.)
FS 40 Mike Williams (5-11, 188, So.)
RCB 29 Troy Woolfolk (6-0, 193, Jr.)
Warren is the closest thing Michigan has to a lock-down corner but has a history of being a little too passive when the ball's in the air. Still, he leads the Wolverines with 4 INTs this season and may have put some of those earlier issues behind him. Warren is a good tackler and is 4th on the team in that category with 59. Woolfolk is the son of former Michigan great Butch Woolfolk who brings enough speed to cover a wide range of the field. He was a special teamer in 2008, but with the loss of Boubacar Cissosko has been asked to take up the slack. He has 39 tackles in 2009. Williams saw action in 9 games last season as a reserve safety and led the team with 11 special teams tackles. Perhaps owing more to depth issues than his skill, Williams has been pressed into service this season and has responded with 56 tackles with 1 for loss. Getting the start at strong safety is walk-on Jordan Kovacs, the son of a former Michigan DB Louis. While he is probably just a place holder for Vlad Emilien, Kovacs has continued to play well enough that he's kept his starting job. In fact, among all secondary players it is Kovacs who leads the group in tackles with 66, 4.5 for loss. He also has an INT, but he cannot be relied on in most passing situations to lock it down.
Corners: #14 Teric Jones (5-8, 193, Fr.), #2 J.T. Turner (6-2, 187, Fr.), #12 J.T. Floyd (6-0, 183, Fr.), and safeties: #31 Jared Van Slyke (6-3, 197, So.), and #5 Vladimir Emilien (6-1, 198, Fr.) back up the starting secondary. Depth is a serious issue for Michigan's secondary as the continued start of Kovacs attests. The leader among the reserves in terms of productivity is Floyd, who has 14 tackles in 8 games. Meanwhile, Jones has just 7 stops. Both Turner and Emilien come to Michigan with potential and promise, but neither has made their mark. Emilien has 1 tackle in 5 games, while Turner is listed as Donovan's backup but has not yet played and is a likely redshirt. Rounding out the secondary depth chart is Van Slyke who has 2 tackles in 8 games.
DB Rating: C-
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU DBs
There's no way to sugar coat it. Michigan's secondary has been a liability for years now. This year's group is desperately thin, but has thankfully managed to stay reasonably healthy even though they suffered a blow when Cissosko was dismissed from the team. Too often there are gaping holes for receivers to settle into, and they are too frequently gashed up the middle. The Buckeye secondary has been solid all year long and sports next level talent at each of the 4 positions. Likewise, there is simply more quality depth, as the Buckeyes have two players - Andre Amos and Anderson Russell - with starting expierence coming off the bench. Unlike the Wolverines who have patched together a secondary built out of necessity, the Buckeyes' unit has been assembled through internal competition. Turner and Emilien both represent talent waiting in the wings for the Wolverines, but they do little to help them in the 2009 meeting between the schools.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Defensive Analysis
Even Michigan fans are beginning to wonder exactly why head coach Rich Rodriguez seems so disinterested in putting together a strong defense. Suffering 3 coordinator changes in as many seasons isn't helping matters, and even though Greg Robinson has the coaching pedigree, he has been unable to make improvements over a dreadful unit last season. There are serious depth issues on the defensive side of the ball, and too many starters who have either failed to reach their potential, or have and just don't have enough of it. That sounds harsh, and it is, but Michigan's defense has a long, long way to go before it becomes the sort of imposing units of old. Brandon Graham is outstanding, but even when he dominates, there are simply too many areas which competent offenses can exploit. It will be interesting to see which Ohio State offense shows up this Saturday. The one which is willing to throw the ball down field and show some flash, or the one that is simply designed to keep the ball in Ohio State's hands, jamming the ball down the field with designs on a 17-10 type win. Tressel has played it both ways in the Michigan series, and either strategy stands as good a chance of being successful in Ann Arbor this week.
This preview feels "harsh," almost mean spirited, but the plain fact is Michigan's defense will have to play unlike it has all season - indeed, unlike it has for 2 seasons or more running - to stand much of a chance of keeping Michigan in the game. As mentioned above, this is The Game, and it's always possible that emotions enable greatness for 60 minutes. It is possible. But, on paper, this one isn't close and may depend more on Tressel's game plan going in. Michigan's offense has certainly improved over last year's dismal unit, so there is some chance that the Buckeyes come out quickly and try to build a 2 or 3 score lead before pounding away on the ground. If it looks like the defense will be able to keep the Wolverine O in check - as Penn State did, for example - the Buckeyes will likely button it up early. Even then, the Buckeyes have gained over 200 on the ground for 4 straight games, and seem poised to reach that number again this Saturday.
Overall Defensive Rating: C-
2009 Michigan Wolverines Special Teams PreviewDE #55 Brandon Graham (6-2, 263, Sr.)
DT #53 Ryan Van Bergen (6-6, 271, So.)
NT #68 Mike Martin (6-2, 292, So.)
If you've only watched 5 minutes of Michigan football this season, you already know that DE Brandon Graham is "the real deal." For all of the struggles this season none of the blame can be laid on his very able shoulders. Graham ran a 10.9 100 in high school, so he's got the speed. He's also established this season, as the line's premier threat, that he's got the strength to battle through double and triple teams. Even while he's keyed on, he's put up excellent numbers in this his final go around. He has made 51 tackles, 21 of which have been behind the LOS and 8.5 of which have been sacks. He also has one of Michigan's fumble recoveries. Van Bergen provides the bulk and has shown good hustle. He is the line's (and team's) second most likely Wolverine to get to the QB and has improved on his freshman campaign which saw only limited action. He has 38 tackles, 6.5 for loss with 5 sacks and a fumble recovery. Rounding out the front 3 is Martin. Martin doesn't necessarily have a typical 3-4 lineman build at 271 and is probably better suited for a 4-3 look. Nonetheless, he can get off the ball well and can cause disruption in the offensive backfield. Second among linemen with 46 tackles, he also has 7.5 TFLs and a sack.
Ends: #39 Will Heininger (6-6, 261, So.), #99 Adam Patterson (6-3, 263, Jr.), and tackles: #92 Greg Banks (6-4, 266, Jr.), #95 Renaldo Sagesse (6-4, 279, Jr.), or #73 William Campbell (6-5, 318, Fr.) provide depth. True freshman Will Campbell is probably the most talented of the resevers and is also one of the few linemen with the bulk to succeed on the interior. While only a freshman, he will see action on Saturday as he has in 10 of 11 games this season. His potential has yet to translate into numbers as he has just 3 tackles with 1 for loss this season. The most productive reserve has been Heininger but he is well behind the starting group with just 10 tackles in 11 games with half a sack. Sagesse has 8 tackles with 2 for loss, while Banks has 4 and Patterson 1.
DL Rating: D+
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU DL
If it were not for Graham the D-Line grade would have to be lower. You can't give up nearly 170 yards a game on the ground and provide inconsistent pressure on the QB and be considered among the elite or even the "average." Graham is excellent, but he cannot do it all. The Buckeyes front 4 has been a consistent force all season long and is widely considered one of the best lines in the nation. While teams can focus on Graham, Ohio State opponents have to account for each of Cam Heyward, Thad Gibson, and Doug Worthington. None of those three have comparable numbers with Graham, but as a group provide far more options and causes for concern. As for depth, the Buckeyes enjoy far more productivity and can rotate as many as 13 linemen in, even in meaningful situations. The Wolverines simply do not enjoy the same luxury in 2009.
Edge: Ohio State
Linebackers
OLB #88 Craig Roh (6-4, 238, Fr.)
MLB #45 Obi Ezeh (6-2, 243, Jr.)
WLB #8 Jonas Mouton (6-2, 228, Jr.)
SLB #3 Stevie Brown (6-0, 211, Sr.)
Though somewhat maligned in his Wolverine career, the LBs are lead by Brown who plays a hybrid safety/linebacker position. Brown can bring the wood and is the team's leader in tackles this season with 73, but the historical knock on him has been his struggles when the ball is in the air. He has been productive in getting behind the LOS with 8 TFLs (second on the team) and a sack and has also recorded an 18 yard INT. Coming into 2009 Ezeh was the team's returning tackles leader by a wide margin. But, as Wolverine fans know, he also missed quite a few as he found himself out of position far too often. Still, with prototypical size, he's got potential. If he's able to put it all together can expect a look from the league. In this, his junior campaign, he has 69 tackles 5 for loss and a fumble recovery. Mouton had health issues the first part of his career, but has been in the lineup since missing the start against Utah in the '08 opener. He's got good athleticism and toughness and has shown improvement as a Wolverine. He is seventh on the team in tackles with 55, 3 coming for loss, and also has a fumble recovery and 1 pick. Roh is a true Freshman and has played reasonably well considering. The former Arizona HS player of the year, he came to Michigan as the nation's No. 8 defensive end (Scout). He's played in 10 of 11 games and has 30 tackles, 7.5 for loss with 2 sacks and a pick.
Reserve LBs include: #58 Brandon Herron (6-2, 220, So.), #81 Steve Watson (6-4, 257, So.), #42 J.B. Fitzgerald (6-3, 232, So.), #25 Kenny Demens (6-1, 236, r-Fr.), #52 Kevin Leach (6-1, 206, So.), #4 Brandon Smith (6-3, 209, r-Fr.), #23 Floyd Simmons (5-10, 190, r-Fr.), and #27 Mike Jones (6-2, 203, Fr.). The most productive reserve is Leach, a walk-on player from Kentwood Michigan, who has 36 tackles, 1 for loss (sack) and a pick. Herron was a solid recruit two years ago, moves well and can make the stop, but needs to become a more consistent contributor. He has 19 tackles, 1 for loss with a pick. Big things are expected of Fitzgerald who played well in spring ball while Mouton recovered from shoulder surgery. He will surely see the field against Ohio State, as he's played in all 11 games this season making 15 tackles with 3 for loss. Smith has 14 tackles in 10 games and if was in on Wisconsin's first series last week. Demens has also played in every game, but has only 7 tackles, while Simmons has played in 8 and has 5 stops, one for loss. Jones has 3 tackles in 6 games.
LB Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU LBs
Tackling has been an issue with Michigan's LB corps for a couple of seasons now and they still need to be more consistent in this area. As the D-Line has struggled, the LBs have done little to slow down opposing ground games while also struggling in coverage, particularly down the middle of the field. The Buckeyes LBs have been playing lights out for the bulk of the season lead by Ross Homan and Brian Rolle. The former leads the team with 4 INTs and tackles, while the latter is just two behind with 82. Michigan's LB corps is probably faster on the whole than in the recent past, but the Buckeyes still enjoy the edge on that score nonetheless. There is a ton of LBs in the rotation for Michigan, but behind the starters only a walk-on has been particularly productive. The Buckeyes are assisted by superior line play and have recorded more stops as a result. Overall the Buckeyes are more consistent tacklers and won't be burned in coverage very often, while the Wolverines need to see improvement in both areas.
Edge: Ohio State
Secondary
LCB 6 Donovan Warren (6-0, 185, Jr.)
SS 32 Jordan Kovacs (5-10, 194, r-Fr.)
FS 40 Mike Williams (5-11, 188, So.)
RCB 29 Troy Woolfolk (6-0, 193, Jr.)
Warren is the closest thing Michigan has to a lock-down corner but has a history of being a little too passive when the ball's in the air. Still, he leads the Wolverines with 4 INTs this season and may have put some of those earlier issues behind him. Warren is a good tackler and is 4th on the team in that category with 59. Woolfolk is the son of former Michigan great Butch Woolfolk who brings enough speed to cover a wide range of the field. He was a special teamer in 2008, but with the loss of Boubacar Cissosko has been asked to take up the slack. He has 39 tackles in 2009. Williams saw action in 9 games last season as a reserve safety and led the team with 11 special teams tackles. Perhaps owing more to depth issues than his skill, Williams has been pressed into service this season and has responded with 56 tackles with 1 for loss. Getting the start at strong safety is walk-on Jordan Kovacs, the son of a former Michigan DB Louis. While he is probably just a place holder for Vlad Emilien, Kovacs has continued to play well enough that he's kept his starting job. In fact, among all secondary players it is Kovacs who leads the group in tackles with 66, 4.5 for loss. He also has an INT, but he cannot be relied on in most passing situations to lock it down.
Corners: #14 Teric Jones (5-8, 193, Fr.), #2 J.T. Turner (6-2, 187, Fr.), #12 J.T. Floyd (6-0, 183, Fr.), and safeties: #31 Jared Van Slyke (6-3, 197, So.), and #5 Vladimir Emilien (6-1, 198, Fr.) back up the starting secondary. Depth is a serious issue for Michigan's secondary as the continued start of Kovacs attests. The leader among the reserves in terms of productivity is Floyd, who has 14 tackles in 8 games. Meanwhile, Jones has just 7 stops. Both Turner and Emilien come to Michigan with potential and promise, but neither has made their mark. Emilien has 1 tackle in 5 games, while Turner is listed as Donovan's backup but has not yet played and is a likely redshirt. Rounding out the secondary depth chart is Van Slyke who has 2 tackles in 8 games.
DB Rating: C-
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU DBs
There's no way to sugar coat it. Michigan's secondary has been a liability for years now. This year's group is desperately thin, but has thankfully managed to stay reasonably healthy even though they suffered a blow when Cissosko was dismissed from the team. Too often there are gaping holes for receivers to settle into, and they are too frequently gashed up the middle. The Buckeye secondary has been solid all year long and sports next level talent at each of the 4 positions. Likewise, there is simply more quality depth, as the Buckeyes have two players - Andre Amos and Anderson Russell - with starting expierence coming off the bench. Unlike the Wolverines who have patched together a secondary built out of necessity, the Buckeyes' unit has been assembled through internal competition. Turner and Emilien both represent talent waiting in the wings for the Wolverines, but they do little to help them in the 2009 meeting between the schools.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Defensive Analysis
Even Michigan fans are beginning to wonder exactly why head coach Rich Rodriguez seems so disinterested in putting together a strong defense. Suffering 3 coordinator changes in as many seasons isn't helping matters, and even though Greg Robinson has the coaching pedigree, he has been unable to make improvements over a dreadful unit last season. There are serious depth issues on the defensive side of the ball, and too many starters who have either failed to reach their potential, or have and just don't have enough of it. That sounds harsh, and it is, but Michigan's defense has a long, long way to go before it becomes the sort of imposing units of old. Brandon Graham is outstanding, but even when he dominates, there are simply too many areas which competent offenses can exploit. It will be interesting to see which Ohio State offense shows up this Saturday. The one which is willing to throw the ball down field and show some flash, or the one that is simply designed to keep the ball in Ohio State's hands, jamming the ball down the field with designs on a 17-10 type win. Tressel has played it both ways in the Michigan series, and either strategy stands as good a chance of being successful in Ann Arbor this week.
This preview feels "harsh," almost mean spirited, but the plain fact is Michigan's defense will have to play unlike it has all season - indeed, unlike it has for 2 seasons or more running - to stand much of a chance of keeping Michigan in the game. As mentioned above, this is The Game, and it's always possible that emotions enable greatness for 60 minutes. It is possible. But, on paper, this one isn't close and may depend more on Tressel's game plan going in. Michigan's offense has certainly improved over last year's dismal unit, so there is some chance that the Buckeyes come out quickly and try to build a 2 or 3 score lead before pounding away on the ground. If it looks like the defense will be able to keep the Wolverine O in check - as Penn State did, for example - the Buckeyes will likely button it up early. Even then, the Buckeyes have gained over 200 on the ground for 4 straight games, and seem poised to reach that number again this Saturday.
Overall Defensive Rating: C-
Michigan
P #41 Zoltan Mesko (6-5, 231, Sr., Twinsburg HS, Twinsburg, OH)
PK #92 Jason Olesnavage (6-5, 213, Sr., Ferndale HS, Ferndale, MI)
PR #21 Junior Hemingway (6-1, 220, So., Conway HS, Conway, SC)
PR #9 Martavious Odoms (5-9, 172, So., Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
PR #13 Greg Mathews (6-3, 209, Sr., Edgewater HS, Orlando, FL)
KR #22 Darryl Stonum (6-2, 196, So., Dulles HS, Stafford, TX)
KR #23 Carlos Brown (6-0, 210, Sr., Heard County HS, Franklin, GA)
KR #19 Kelvin Grady (5-9, 168, So., East Grand Rapids HS, Grand Rapids, MI)
KR #2 Vincent Smith (5-6, 168, Fr., Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
LS #91 Tom Pomarico (6-4, 245, So., Lumen Chrisi HS, Jackson, MI)
Hldr #41 Zoltan Mesko (6-5, 231, Sr., Twinsburg HS, Twinsburg, OH)
Ohio State
P #48 Jon Thoma (6-2, 201, Sr., St. Thomas Aquinas HS, Louisville, OH)
PK #23 Devin Barclay (5-11, 195, Jr., McDonough HS, Annapolis, MD)
PR #82 Ray Small (5-11, 180, Sr., Glenville HS, Cleveland, OH)
PR #12 Dane Sanzenbacher (5-11, 175, Jr., Central Catholic HS, Toledo, OH)
PR #8 DeVier Posey (6-3, 205, So., LaSalle HS, Cincinnati, OH)
KR #7 Lamaar Thomas (5-11, 186, So., Friendly HS, Ft. Washington, MD)
KR #82 Ray Small (5-11, 180, Sr., Glenville HS, Cleveland, OH)
KR #3 Brandon Saine (6-1, 217, Jr., Piqua HS, Piqua, OH)
LS #96 Jake McQuaide (6-2, 219, Jr., Elder HS, Cincinnati, OH)
Hldr #48 Jon Thoma (6-2, 201, Sr., St. Thomas Aquinas HS, Louisville, OH)
The Michigan Wolverines have played solid special teams during the course of this season. Statistically they match up well with Ohio State. But statistics can be thrown out of the window when these two teams play. Expect the Special Teams play to be hard-hitting. A mistake here or there by either team could end up being a deciding factor.
ST Rating: B+
Head-to-Head When Michigan Punts: Mesko vs. Small/Sanzenbacher/Posey
Zoltan Mesko is a talented 5th year senior who will be playing on Sundays next year. He ranks among the top punters in the nation statistically and has done more than his fair share to help the Wolverine offense with good field position. The Buckeyes have struggled somewhat in the punt return department, but as usual, the potential to bust one is there on every given play.
Edge: Michigan
Head-to-Head When Michigan Kicks Off: Olesnavage vs. Thomas/Small/Saine
Olesnavage has a decent leg as evidenced by the 12 touchbacks recorded by the Michigan kickoff defense team. The Buckeye returners have slipped a little bit as of late, but still have had a great season overall. Going with Ohio State on this one.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head When Ohio State Punts: Thoma vs. Hemingway/Odoms/Matthews
Despite Thoma's meltdown of last week, he has had a solid season. The punt return defense team has only allowed 15 yards all year long. That is pretty impressive when considering all the explosive speed they have faced.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head When Ohio State Kicks Off: Barclay vs. Stonum/Brown/Grady/Smith
Barclay made good on all of his kicks last week against Iowa, save for the TD return, and that was a result of missed tackles more than his leg. The Wolverines have a lot of experience returning kicks, having an incredible 51 returns on the year. This will be a close battle.
Edge: Even
Overall Special Teams Analysis
Michigan is solid across the board in special teams and so is Ohio State. If the Wolverines' offense and defense step up and OSU has another special teams implosion like last week, the Blue will like their chances. Just don't bet the house that a Tressel-coached special team unit will not be prepared against Michigan.
Overall Special Teams Rating: B+
PredictionsP #41 Zoltan Mesko (6-5, 231, Sr., Twinsburg HS, Twinsburg, OH)
PK #92 Jason Olesnavage (6-5, 213, Sr., Ferndale HS, Ferndale, MI)
PR #21 Junior Hemingway (6-1, 220, So., Conway HS, Conway, SC)
PR #9 Martavious Odoms (5-9, 172, So., Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
PR #13 Greg Mathews (6-3, 209, Sr., Edgewater HS, Orlando, FL)
KR #22 Darryl Stonum (6-2, 196, So., Dulles HS, Stafford, TX)
KR #23 Carlos Brown (6-0, 210, Sr., Heard County HS, Franklin, GA)
KR #19 Kelvin Grady (5-9, 168, So., East Grand Rapids HS, Grand Rapids, MI)
KR #2 Vincent Smith (5-6, 168, Fr., Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
LS #91 Tom Pomarico (6-4, 245, So., Lumen Chrisi HS, Jackson, MI)
Hldr #41 Zoltan Mesko (6-5, 231, Sr., Twinsburg HS, Twinsburg, OH)
Ohio State
P #48 Jon Thoma (6-2, 201, Sr., St. Thomas Aquinas HS, Louisville, OH)
PK #23 Devin Barclay (5-11, 195, Jr., McDonough HS, Annapolis, MD)
PR #82 Ray Small (5-11, 180, Sr., Glenville HS, Cleveland, OH)
PR #12 Dane Sanzenbacher (5-11, 175, Jr., Central Catholic HS, Toledo, OH)
PR #8 DeVier Posey (6-3, 205, So., LaSalle HS, Cincinnati, OH)
KR #7 Lamaar Thomas (5-11, 186, So., Friendly HS, Ft. Washington, MD)
KR #82 Ray Small (5-11, 180, Sr., Glenville HS, Cleveland, OH)
KR #3 Brandon Saine (6-1, 217, Jr., Piqua HS, Piqua, OH)
LS #96 Jake McQuaide (6-2, 219, Jr., Elder HS, Cincinnati, OH)
Hldr #48 Jon Thoma (6-2, 201, Sr., St. Thomas Aquinas HS, Louisville, OH)
The Michigan Wolverines have played solid special teams during the course of this season. Statistically they match up well with Ohio State. But statistics can be thrown out of the window when these two teams play. Expect the Special Teams play to be hard-hitting. A mistake here or there by either team could end up being a deciding factor.
ST Rating: B+
Head-to-Head When Michigan Punts: Mesko vs. Small/Sanzenbacher/Posey
Zoltan Mesko is a talented 5th year senior who will be playing on Sundays next year. He ranks among the top punters in the nation statistically and has done more than his fair share to help the Wolverine offense with good field position. The Buckeyes have struggled somewhat in the punt return department, but as usual, the potential to bust one is there on every given play.
Edge: Michigan
Head-to-Head When Michigan Kicks Off: Olesnavage vs. Thomas/Small/Saine
Olesnavage has a decent leg as evidenced by the 12 touchbacks recorded by the Michigan kickoff defense team. The Buckeye returners have slipped a little bit as of late, but still have had a great season overall. Going with Ohio State on this one.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head When Ohio State Punts: Thoma vs. Hemingway/Odoms/Matthews
Despite Thoma's meltdown of last week, he has had a solid season. The punt return defense team has only allowed 15 yards all year long. That is pretty impressive when considering all the explosive speed they have faced.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head When Ohio State Kicks Off: Barclay vs. Stonum/Brown/Grady/Smith
Barclay made good on all of his kicks last week against Iowa, save for the TD return, and that was a result of missed tackles more than his leg. The Wolverines have a lot of experience returning kicks, having an incredible 51 returns on the year. This will be a close battle.
Edge: Even
Overall Special Teams Analysis
Michigan is solid across the board in special teams and so is Ohio State. If the Wolverines' offense and defense step up and OSU has another special teams implosion like last week, the Blue will like their chances. Just don't bet the house that a Tressel-coached special team unit will not be prepared against Michigan.
Overall Special Teams Rating: B+
BB73's prediction: 27-13, Ohio State
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 38-10, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 31-20, Ohio State
Bucky Katt's prediction: 24-13, Ohio State
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 38-13, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: ??-??. Ohio State
JCOSU86's prediction: 38-17, Ohio State
Low score wins the year long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual scores versus predicted scores. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)
Previous Game's Results (tOSU 27, Iowa 24, OT)
(171) BB73's prediction: 23-6, Ohio State (22 + 149 last week = 171)
(183) Bucky Katt's prediction: 20-6, Ohio State (25 + 158 last week = 183)
(200) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 34-7, Ohio State (24 + 176 last week = 200)
(210) Bucklion's prediction: 27-6, Ohio State (18 + 192 last week = 210)
(216) JCOSU86's prediction: 31-3, Ohio State (25 + 191 last week = 216)
(218) jwinslow's prediction: 31-17, Ohio State (11 + 207 last week = 218)
(262) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: xx-xx, Ohio State (25 + 237 last week = 262)
Adjusted scores for weeks missed. Participant must take the highest score from the week they missed.
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 38-10, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 31-20, Ohio State
Bucky Katt's prediction: 24-13, Ohio State
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 38-13, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: ??-??. Ohio State
JCOSU86's prediction: 38-17, Ohio State
Low score wins the year long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual scores versus predicted scores. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)
Previous Game's Results (tOSU 27, Iowa 24, OT)
(171) BB73's prediction: 23-6, Ohio State (22 + 149 last week = 171)
(183) Bucky Katt's prediction: 20-6, Ohio State (25 + 158 last week = 183)
(200) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 34-7, Ohio State (24 + 176 last week = 200)
(210) Bucklion's prediction: 27-6, Ohio State (18 + 192 last week = 210)
(216) JCOSU86's prediction: 31-3, Ohio State (25 + 191 last week = 216)
(218) jwinslow's prediction: 31-17, Ohio State (11 + 207 last week = 218)
(262) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: xx-xx, Ohio State (25 + 237 last week = 262)
Adjusted scores for weeks missed. Participant must take the highest score from the week they missed.
