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50/50 on Remaining Penn State Season

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Yertle

Yertle

Pounding out aggression, turns into obsession
I apologize if this belongs in an existing thread, but I couldn't find one that seemed appropraite.

I had a long discussion last night with a group of friends about the current situation of the Leaders Division.

Penn State 5-0
Ohio State 2-2
Wisconsin 2-2
Purdue 2-2
Illinois 2-3
Indiana 0-5

Most of the talk was about the Buckeyes' chances at reaching the title game and how one miracle (dare I say "lucky"...) pass has changed our season from a disaster to completely back in the mix. Of course, we are one Penn State loss not inflicted by Ohio State away from being in control of our destiny.

So, that brought up the obvious question: What are the odds Penn State will lose to either Nebraska or Wisconsin.

The general feeling was the odds are extremely high. They beat Indiana 16-10, for Pete's sake. HA! So, the question was changed to:

If the payout was 1/1 on whether Penn State would win another game THIS ENTIRE YEAR, would you take yes, or no? This includes the bowl game! So, yes or no, will Penn State end the season 0-4? My money would be on yes, I think Penn State won their final game of the season when Illinois' kick bounced off the upright.
 
Who they get in un-Happy Valley could make a difference.

11/12/11vs. Nebraska *University Park, Pa.TBA
11/19/11at Ohio State *Columbus, OhioTBA
11/26/11at Wisconsin TBA

Best bet is a chance beating Nebraska at home.
We'll beat them. Will be a tough game.
And Wiscy will humiliate them.
 
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I think they lose those three games, get a so-so bowl game, and win it. If they happen to win one of those games, they go to a tougher bowl game and lose it. I say they go 1-3 in the last 4 games.

My vote goes to "yes - they win another game this year". I like this vbet idea though.
 
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In order to create the odds for the 'Who beats Whom in the CCG' vBet, I had to estimate their chances of winning each game. I went with 50% at home against Nebraska, 30% at tOSU, and 20% at Wisconsin.

Using those odds, they have a 28% chance of going 0-3.
 
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BB73;2026521; said:
In order to create the odds for the 'Who beats Whom in the CCG' vBet, I had to estimate their chances of winning each game. I went with 50% at home against Nebraska, 30% at tOSU, and 20% at Wisconsin.

Using those odds, they have a 28% chance of going 0-3.
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I love the approach, and I've used it quite a bit to think through various upcoming OSU seasons. However, I think you're being generous for ole Joe Pa. You really think a team that beat Indiana 16-10 is even odds against Nebraska? I know, I know, it's in Happy Valley. But, how intimidating can "we are... penn state" and 5000 repeated lion roars really be? Zook had them on the ropes at home. Yeah, the same team that lost to Purdont a week earlier, and we beat with 1 completed pass.

I'd give Penn State 20% against Nebraska, 15% against us, and 5% against Wisconsin. This puts them at 65% going 0-3. And, I'm throwing in the bowl game in my discussion. Obviously we don't know who they're playing, so it's tough to call that one.
 
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Yertle;2026539; said:
I'd give Penn State 20% against Nebraska, 15% against us, and 5% against Wisconsin. This puts them at 65% going 0-3. And, I'm throwing in the bowl game in my discussion. Obviously we don't know who they're playing, so it's tough to call that one.
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Seems reasonable to me, except maybe I'd switch the Nebraska and Ohio State odds, but that doesn't change your 65% (or, 64.6%) chances of going 0-3. I think that if you say that they lose those three tough games (toughest three games on their Big Ten schedule), they go to a bowl game and play an inferior opponent. 80% chance to win that bowl game gives you just over 51% that they will win ONE of those games.

50/50? Don't quit your day job. Unless you want to say they only have about 77% chance of winning that bowl game....
 
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I think they'll get a victory in a bowl game, but little else.

I'm gonna love to see the combined PF and PA from the next three teams. I imagine that the three wins will be double-digit and humiliate their team and fan base.
 
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Yertle;2026539; said:
I love the approach, and I've used it quite a bit to think through various upcoming OSU seasons. However, I think you're being generous for ole Joe Pa. You really think a team that beat Indiana 16-10 is even odds against Nebraska? I know, I know, it's in Happy Valley. But, how intimidating can "we are... penn state" and 5000 repeated lion roars really be? Zook had them on the ropes at home. Yeah, the same team that lost to Purdont a week earlier, and we beat with 1 completed pass.

I'd give Penn State 20% against Nebraska, 15% against us, and 5% against Wisconsin. This puts them at 65% going 0-3. And, I'm throwing in the bowl game in my discussion. Obviously we don't know who they're playing, so it's tough to call that one.
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State Penn's defense gives them a puncher's chance. Getting Moye (sp?) back was big for them against Illinois. Nebraska is not used to playing in crappy valley (Has Taylor Martinez ever played in front of that many screaming mouth breathers?). I don't think the Nits will beat Wisconsin
 
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Woody1968;2026580; said:
Nebraska is not used to playing in crappy valley (Has Taylor Martinez ever played in front of that many screaming mouth breathers?).
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HILARIOUS!!! This will be a major wake up call for Nebraska and the fans of the B1G. More importantly, it will give them first hand knowledge of why we hate that school and her back assward, short bus riding fans.
 
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