The Indians are certainly not “all in” for 2020. I think that’s a good thing. The whole season is a few positive tests away from stopping/ending at any time. Spending player capital now vs. being competitive for future seasons? They made the right choice.
Lindor “good as gone?” Of course he is. How many players have the Indians kept past their being eligible for free agency in the past, say, 25 years? The only real question is whether they keep him for all or part of 2021 and I think there are some good reasons to believe that Frankie is traded before next season.
First reason for a Frankie trade: uncertain baseball economy. The Indians have stated that they face “extraordinary” losses for 2020. Plus, there’s the obvious question of whether MLB allows fans in the stadiums next year. The college and NFL games, if there really are (m)any played, will be watched carefully by MLB to give an indication if that’s possible. The Indians were experiencing lowering attendance trends before the pandemic. It seems irrational to expect that 2021 would reverse that, particularly when the pandemic impact on Ohio’s economy is considered.
And don’t forget that the Tribe has been aggressively cutting player payroll since 2018. From roughly $175M for 2018 to $100M, before pandemic proration adjustments, for 2020. The Clevinger trade is a clear sign that direction will continue through 2021. Other possible 2021 player losses for more salary cutback: Carlos Santana (‘21 team option $17.5M, $.5M buyout) and Brad Hand (‘21 team option $10M). Plus Cesar Hernandez (‘20 base $6.25M, before pandemic adjustment) is a free agent after 2020.
Another factor that should influence a Frankie trade is that the collective bargaining agreement with the MLBPA expires after the 2021 season. That agreement currently allows teams to receive draft pick compensation for free agents lost if those free agents are given a Qualifying Offer by their team. While the Indians have rarely used the QO option in recent years, the chance of keeping Frankie through the 2021 season and then getting a high compensation draft pick might be tempting. However, during negotiations a few months ago for the restart of the 2020 season one of the proposals allegedly made by MLB was to ditch the QO process after the ‘20 season to create more free agent opportunities for players. It wasn’t adopted for 2020, but if QO was on the table this year it will definitely be back on the table for the new CBA negotiations.
Are the Indians willing to pay Frankie what looks to be over 20% of their total player ‘21 payroll, run the risk that he gets hurt and can’t be traded during the season, and take the chance that they could get nothing back via QO? Maybe. They didn’t make a QO to Michael Brantley, Andrew Miller, Jason Kipnis, and others who left as free agents. Different economics in those years and players who were not considered by many to be among the top 10 in the game.
So, the interesting thing, I think if Lindor's contract was to expire this year (and the Indians didn't trade him) I think they would probably QO him, and it might be in Lindor's best interest to take it... I guess once we get the lay of the land in Dec/January we might know that answer.
The Indians aren't the only team that will take a massive loss... and last offseason, teams were finally throwing big $ at (some) FA's.... not really relating to Lindor, I am curious to see what the market situation is... it gets complicated for Lindor too, Cory Seager, Xavier Baez are going to be FA's too... Carlos Correa I think maybe as well (but he's never healthy).. the Red Sox would probably like to move Xander Boegarts (I can't ever spell that kids name)
As for Santana, My guess is... as a larger picture, there will be a lot of club option/marginal FA guys that re-up for one year with their current teams cheap... Not saying he will necessarily but, I have a hard time believing the market for guys like him at 17mm will be there. (Cesar Hernandez at 6.25, not a bad deal at all), I just feel like the teams that are borderline postseason teams this year will be quite happy to try to be borderline again next season if they can do it for the same $.
Random: Anyone feel like Reyes and to a lesser extent Naylor were Travis Hafner pickups... (Where the Rangers had Texiera and Blalock -- plus Arod, etc and the dude just couldn't play a position well enough... if anyone is bored, this is back when I used to actually follow baseball, go look and see the lineup the Rangers finished last place with in 2003.... then look at the pitching staff.... woooo weee what a greasefire). So, my concern here is that Naylor can't actually play a position, which is fucked up enough, but, that doesn't fly in Terry Francona land... although, how well have 75 really athletic OF's that can't hit gone? So so at best. Problem is, too many of those guys isn't good. Hafner really handcuffed the Tribe because he literally couldn't play 1B. Naylor's history in the OF, is... bad, lets hope its due to lack of reps. (Shitty part is, and of course a lot of other teams will have this problem in various ways, we only get to see him for 25 odd games... where if this Trade was July 31 in a normai season, its like 60.)
Well, whatever, we're trending toward at least 3 postseason games, so... there's that I guess.
