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Coronavirus (COVID-19) is too exciting for adults to discuss (CLOSED)

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AKAK said:
Alright so... I couldn't find the original article from earlier this month but I think this is the study...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

Abstract in part:




Then in the course of searching for that, I found this:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/30/health/t-cells-coronavirus-study-wellness/index.html



So, I dunno how much you guys have been posting it here, but a lot of the immunity discussion has been shifting to T cells so, in the top one is a Singapore study where they ID that there are T-Cells in the population resistant to COVID 19, including SARS outbreak survivors who have memory T Cells from 17 years ago....


THen the next one is a study in Germany that puts the prevalence of said T-Cells at up to 35% (small sample size).

A good long while back I posted something similar about antibodies prevalence in Asia offering at least limited immunity based on exposure to SARS and other coronaviruses.

Now, why quote that along with the vaccine.

So, I think once the vaccine rolls out, the R naught will drop pretty quickly well below 1, because I think there's a pretty wide set of factors other than just 70% of people taking it...

So, first is, what is the population prevalence going to be by the end of the year... (I'm being kind of hypothetical here so if you don't like the numbers I'm good with that, not my point, big guesstimating)

If there are 7 million cases by the end of the year, CDC is saying we might only be catching 1 in 10 cases due to early issue, assyms etc... that by itself would be close to 20%... I think its high and we will see what more robust seroprevalence tests return, but at some point this part become important, even at 15% (These guys here estimate the undercount at a wonderfully wide 6 to 24 times... so if you're super optimistic 24 times 4 million is a big number https://www.the-scientist.com/news-...dy-in-us-shows-vast-covid-19-undercount-67762) And this data is old right now but that NYC test put it at 23%, now of course nearly everywhere else is a long way from the NYC infections per X people, and I think we'd prefer not to get there but... maybe slowly places catch up.

Then you have these TCell immunity factors - Is 35% right? I dunno, but even if its 15% - there's another big chunk (and largely the point here is there shouldn't be much, if any overlap between those groups)

But for giggles, let's say with those 2 things you already have 30% of people with some meaningful protection...that's a big deal.

(obviously there's a whole lot of "we don't know which people already have protection" that's going on, so you don't get to say, just give some other 30% the vaccine, but what you will have is 30% of the people who may not run to the front of the line, probably don't actually need it, and you get to 60% a lot quicker that way)

Anyway, I'm having a mostly rotten day so, if I don't respond to comments on this, nothing personal, I probably shouldn't be posting at all.
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First: hope your day improves

There are many studies discussing SARS-CoV-2 immune response; the one you cite is similar to what I was quoting, but not identical. Still, things appear to be looking up.
 
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Bucklion said:
In fairness, there were solid leads on SARS, they just weren’t pursued because the virus “went away”. There is also a promising vaccine for MERS in clinical trials now, it’s just been overshadowed by COVID.
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It only took them eight years to develop a "promising" MERS vaccine that hasn't even completed clinical trials. I'd love to be more optimistic about the development of a highly-effective vaccine that can be provided to the masses soon, but I'm not.
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
I'm assuming you're replying to the "And this here is where you get people saying this is all a conspiracy to permanently control people's behavior" portion of my post. Ever hear of the term "mission creep"?
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Yes, but I don't see how that applies here. If the ominous "they" are powerful enough to get you to do something actually beneficial to their interests, they don't need a trial run of getting everybody to wear masks.
 
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BuckeyeNation27 said:
Yes, but I don't see how that applies here. If the ominous "they" are powerful enough to get you to do something actually beneficial to their interests, they don't need a trial run of getting everybody to wear masks.
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It's more about behavioral control, and a pandemic is the absolute perfect scenario in which an entity can see what it can get away with, i.e., what the masses will tolerate, in the name of what the entity deems the greater good.
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
It's more about behavioral control, and a pandemic is the absolute perfect scenario in which an entity can see what it can get away with, i.e., what the masses will tolerate, in the name of what the entity deems the greater good.
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In a similar vein, high-profile terrorist attacks create fertile soil for additional social control. I'm curious as to what you think about having to take your shoes off in airport security lines or, for that matter, whether the creation of the Department of Homeland Security and the TSA was an appropriate reaction to 9/11.
 
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Jagdaddy said:
In a similar vein, high-profile terrorist attacks create fertile soil for additional social control. I'm curious as to what you think about having to take your shoes off in airport security lines or, for that matter, whether the creation of the Department of Homeland Security and the TSA was an appropriate reaction to 9/11.
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I don't recall any requirements to keep your shoes off once you got past screening...in fact the only time you had to remove them was right before you stepped through The Magic Portal. So, the other 99.999% of your life, you're free to wear your shoes whenever and where ever you want. I do think the Patriot Act was/is way too broad an over-reach.
 
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Taosman said:
"Social Control" conspiracy talk is just BS. We have seen how much people listen to the government now with large groups of people having parties after being warned not to. Yeah that will work.
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The "groups of people having parties" constitute about 0.001% of the general population. And even when they do they face actions from local authorities or general societal chastisement.
 
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Wasn't sure this should go here or the Poli thread. Mods, feel free to move.

Dutch Government Will Not Mandate Masks, Says ‘No Proven Effectiveness’

At first, I looked at their overall case to death rate and it wasn't good...actually, it was bad (11.4%). But upon further review, looking at the case and death graphs, despite the fact that daily cases have nearly exactly quadrupled from Jul 1 (when the government announced an easing of lockdown measures to include restaurants and public gatherings if people maintain a 1.5 meter (five foot) physical distance) to Jul 29 (62 cases to 247 cases), the daily death rates remained at nearly zero throughout (in fact the SDMA for any day in that period was never higher than 3). So, either they're hiding deaths or they're right about the masks.
 
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