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Game Thread Iowa at tOSU, Homecoming, Oct 19, 3:30 ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN2

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Zurp said:
First, I think Ohio State WILL end Iowa's streak.
Second, I really hope that Urban Meyer doesn't get obsessed with this fact. Call the plays that give your team the best chance to win the game. Don't worry about a streak that is worth exactly nothing. If you're up 42-10 late in the third quarter, THEN you can do whatever is necessary to score a rushing touchdown. But until then, I don't want to see Ohio State get stuffed on 3 rushing attempts inside the 5, only to settle for field goals.
Third, has Iowa faced a dual-threat quarterback this year?
Click to expand...

Be sure to send the coaches a list of all the things you don't want to see, so they don't get too obsessed with rushing TD's.
 
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Ohio State opens a bit rusty after the week off, giving up an easy early touchdown and Iowa gets another in garbage time.

Wisconsin had comparable rushing defensive stats. So, despite 192 yards rushing on the night, the Buckeyes did not score a rushing touchdown. That said, the Buckeyes are practicing against a defense that is giving up less yards than Iowa or Wisconsin.

I think that the Buckeyes will score between 35 and 42, call it 38, with at least two touchdowns from rushing. Getting into Iowa's head may open up a few opportunities for passing touchdowns inside the 5 yard line.

Iowa will be stymied in this game, scoring 14-17 points, I think.
 
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Here's my contribution as a Buckeye Planet stathead!

Please note that the rank (out of 125 FBS teams) and data are calculated by Football Outsiders.

Code: 
                OHIO STATE            IOWA 

S&P+            18    241.1           30    230.9
FEI             20    0.177           30    .124
Off F/+         16    12.0%           74    -3.6%
Def F/+         27    8.9%            15    14.4%
ST F/+          4     4.2%            34    1.3%

Based on the data provided, Ohio State should be able to hold a major edge with their offensive game, especially with Carlos Hype at full strength. We all know that Hyde was suspended in the first three games, which negatively impacted Ohio State's ranks, offensively and defensively. Hyde is a huge factor when it comes to picking up the first downs and keeping the defensive side off the field.

Ohio State holds a huge advantage with their special teams play, ranking in Top 5 nationally. Iowa did have a big day with several returns for TDs against...Western Michigan, but that won't be happening against the Buckeyes, based on the stats. Special teams should be a game-changing factor in Ohio State's favor.

Ohio State has the tendency to start slow on defense to evolve into an imposing defensive unit. If last year is an example with the same coaching staff, then Ohio State should slowly rise up in Def F/+ to Top 10 at best, Top 15 at worst. The remaining games on their schedule should point to a positive trend.

Iowa's Def F/+ looks better than Ohio State, but they haven't played Northwestern and Wisconsin yet while Ohio State did. Iowa still has Nebraska and Michigan left to play and that may impact their overachieving defensive rankings. They will game plan to stop the run and force Braxton to pass the ball, but his passing arsenal will open up the running lanes, but I am sure Ohio State will be able to run the ball against Iowa's front seven without any regards.

Out of Iowa's played opponents, Michigan State is an acceptable representative of Ohio State's defense, which they gave up 14 points on the road. Northern Illinois is a mediocre representative of Ohio State's offense, which they scored 30 points on the road. That's the closest representation of how the game may play out, due to this comparative analysis.

In a Buckeye nutshell, the bettors should make a killing with Ohio State's spread of 17 points. Injuries withstanding, Iowa will struggle mightily with their below average offense against the upcoming Silver Bullets. Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde will click better together than they did during the first half against Northwestern. I am predicting a ratio of 200+ rushing yards and 250+ passing yards. Kenny G should get some playing time as well. All in all, the Hawkeyes are not going back to Iowa City without giving up some rushing touchdowns.

My statistical prediction: Ohio State 45, Iowa 16

If you want more information on what each statistical category means, then you can expand the quote box at the bottom.

Beginning with the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.
Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

Source: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus
Click to expand...
 
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I am guessing an absolute thrashing occurs. I don't have anything to add really, Iowa hasn't beat a solid opponent and that is a fact. Hell, my mighty Idaho Vandals almost took down Northern Illinois! We roll up yards in every way imaginable, shut their offense down after the 1st quarter, and cruise to a 42-14 victory.

See...I don't always foresee a close one :biggrin:
 
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