Misperception of FCS (I-AA) Football

[MililaniBuckeye]

The media is having a field day with App State's win at Michigan, calling it one of the greatest (many say it's the greatest) upsets in college football history. Why? What if Central Michigan or Kent State pulled the upset? Well, it's obvious that the reason is because ASU just happens to play in the FCS subdivision (formally I-AA).

Teams at the top of the FCS are good teams...not just very good team within the FCS, but good teams overall. Now, in another thread someone pointed out that ASU had been something like 4-38 against I-A teams and all their wins were against Wake Forest (they actually have 7 wins against Wake Forest). But this is not an accurate indicator of their level. Many of those games were played well before ASU rose to where it is today. For example, they're 1-8 against South Carolina...trouble is, the last game in that series was two decades ago (1988). While they were smoked 56-6 in their only game ever against North Carolina, that was back in 1940. They're 0-3 against Va Tech, but those games were in 1979, 1981, and 1982. Even when they lost 40-17 out here in Hawaii in 2003 (I watched that game), they were only 7-4 that year and yet played UH as tough as most of the other teams that came to Honolulu that year.

When they were good, they were really good. In 1999, they gave Auburn all they could handle, 22-15 at Auburn. They played Clemson tough, 23-12, at Clemson in 1997. They played very admirably at LSU in 2005, losing only 24-0...that year, LSU beat Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and North Texas by bigger margins.

Marshall and Boise State are excellent examples of former I-AA teams making it in the upper echelon. Both teams were doubted when they made the jump. Marshall dominated the MAC from day one, going 10-3, 12-1, and 13-0 in their first three seasons, including 22-2 in conference. Boise State did have to wait until their fourth season in I-A to have a winning season (10-3 in 1999) but they've been a WAC powerhouse since 2002 (12-1, 13-1, 11-1, 9-4, and 13-0).

Bottom line is, don't knock a team just because they happen to be currently in the FCS subdivision...just ask Michigan.

 

[methomps]

I have my doubts. They did get steamrolled by Kansas in one of their championship years.

 

[Dryden]

The trouble is that you cannot predict a programs' future success based on their 1AA resume, no matter how recent.

On the one hand is the example of Marshall, which made the jump from 1AA to 1A after their national title in 1996, where they went on to dominate the MAC for their first five years in the conference. Marshall, though, had legitimate 1A caliber players -- Randy Moss, Chad Pennington, and Byron Leftwich. On the other hand is Boise St, which lost to Tress's YSU squad in the title game in '94, fell to 7-4 in their last 1AA year of '95, and went 2-10-0 in '96 in the old Big West conference, their first year in 1A. Boise St may be on the cusp of something big right now, but it has taken five coaches and ten years since their move up to do it (and two of those coaches were Houston Nutt and Dirk Koetter).

The problem I have with the App St argument is that Michigan has had obvious holes in their secondary for at least the past four years, and people on this board were suggesting that a close score wouldn't at all be a surprise. Hell, Ball St almost beat Michigan last year. I'd say Ball St beating Michigan would've been a bigger upset than App St! Michigan's defense has been terrible. App St was shut out two years ago by LSU, and dropped games against some awful North Carolina and Kansas teams, also since 2005. So, all things considered, I think people are reading too much into this win. App St is probably a middle of the road MAC team, at best.

I'll say that Michigan had better beat Oregon, since that's who they were probably practicing for last week.

 

[TooTall]

The media is having a field day with App State's win at Michigan, calling it one of the greatest (many say it's the greatest) upsets in college football history. Why? What if Central Michigan or Kent State pulled the upset? Well, it's obvious that the reason is because ASU just happens to play in the FCS subdivision (formally I-AA).

Teams at the top of the FCS are good teams...not just very good team within the FCS, but good teams overall. Now, in another thread someone pointed out that ASU had been something like 4-38 against I-A teams and all their wins were against Wake Forest (they actually have 7 wins against Wake Forest). But this is not an accurate indicator of their level. Many of those games were played well before ASU rose to where it is today. For example, they're 1-8 against South Carolina...trouble is, the last game in that series was two decades ago (1988). While they were smoked 56-6 in their only game ever against North Carolina, that was back in 1940. They're 0-3 against Va Tech, but those games were in 1979, 1981, and 1982. Even when they lost 40-17 out here in Hawaii in 2003 (I watched that game), they were only 7-4 that year and yet played UH as tough as most of the other teams that came to Honolulu that year.

When they were good, they were really good. In 1999, they gave Auburn all they could handle, 22-15 at Auburn. They played Clemson tough, 23-12, at Clemson in 1997. They played very admirably at LSU in 2005, losing only 24-0...that year, LSU beat Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and North Texas by bigger margins.

Marshall and Boise State are excellent examples of former I-AA teams making it in the upper echelon. Both teams were doubted when they made the jump. Marshall dominated the MAC from day one, going 10-3, 12-1, and 13-0 in their first three seasons, including 22-2 in conference. Boise State did have to wait until their fourth season in I-A to have a winning season (10-3 in 1999) but they've been a WAC powerhouse since 2002 (12-1, 13-1, 11-1, 9-4, and 13-0).

Bottom line is, don't knock a team just because they happen to be currently in the FCS subdivision...just ask Michigan.

I was saying the same exact thing on the way home from the OSU game, thought about calling Munch on 980!

 

[Oh8ch]

Those are all good and true points. And considering the limited resources these schools have their accomplishments are all the more credit worthy.

That said, the best team Marshall ever fielded winning at the home of a Big Ten team that was expected to contend for the title is one hell of an upset.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

I have my doubts. They did get steamrolled by Kansas in one of their championship years.

True. I'm not saying they'd move up to I-A, errr the BCS, and go 10-2. I think they'd do quite well in the MAC and maybe win their division in their first year like Marshall did in 1997 (I'd put the current ASU team at the same level as the 1996 Marshall team which won the I-AA NC the year before they jumped up to the MAC). I also had stated they could go 5-3 in the Big Ten with their current team...hell, they're 1-0 already.

People just shouldn't blow off the top teams in the FCS just because they're in the FCS.

 

[aurorabuckeye13]

Stewart Mandel made another good point about Appalachian State in an article on Si.com. Here's his entire point about it, but I think the last paragraph in the best part.

1. That property values are rising in that (NCAA Football Championship) Subdivision down the street. In the days to come, I?m guessing Appalachian State will get the full-on Good Morning America/Tonight Show treatment, and deservedly so. But to treat the Mountaineers? historic win Saturday as some sort of Hoosiers-type miracle would be to severely discredit ASU?s program and its players as well as the Division Formerly Known As I-AA in general. I?m not saying Appy State 34, Michigan 32 wasn?t a gigantic shocker. It was. I?m not saying such events are going to start becoming regular occurrences. I?m not even saying it would happen again if the two teams met again next week.

But Saturday?s result did not transpire out of thin air. It was simply the most dramatic milestone to date in a movement that began nearly 20 years ago and has seen the dispersal of talent throughout the sport, from the rise of programs like Kansas State and Wisconsin to Northwestern?s improbable Rose Bowl run in 1995 (the same year the NCAA instituted the 85-scholarship lmit) to the likes of Louisville, Rutgers, Boise State and Utah becoming nationally competitive. Now, evidently, it extends to the upper realms of I-AA. This wasn?t Butler running some frustrating, slow-down offense to upset a Maryland in the NCAA basketball tournament. And it certainly wasn?t a case of Michigan fumbling eight times or some other freak occurrence. Appalachian State simply beat the Wolverines with some seriously talented athletes.

I can think of a half-dozen BCS conference teams off the top of my head -? Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina and Baylor ?- that would be instantly better with Armanti Edwards as their quarterback or Dexter Jackson as a receiver, and there are probably far more than that. It?s still going to take the perfect confluence of events for a future I-AA team to beat a future Michigan, but it?s going to happen again sooner than later.

And that is the truth. App. St. has some very talented athletes that can compete with the best D-1 A has to offer. As for those who cite the Kansas game as their case against App. St. I say they are a much different team than they were then. Their QB Armanti Edwards was a true freshman last year and changed the face of their offense. I might be wrong but I believe that App. St. played Kansas in 2005, before Edwards was a Mountaineer. That guy is a serious talent and I said this in another thread? Armanti Edwards is a poor man?s Juice Williams and we all know how good he is and can be.

 

[TooTall]

Stewart Mandel made another good point about Appalachian State in an article on Si.com. Here's his entire point about it, but I think the last paragraph in the best part.



And that is the truth. App. St. has some very talented athletes that can compete with the best D-1 A has to offer. As for those who cite the Kansas game as their case against App. St. I say they are a much different team than they were then. Their QB Armanti Edwards was a true freshman last year and changed the face of their offense. I might be wrong but I believe that App. St. played Kansas in 2005, before Edwards was a Mountaineer. That guy is a serious talent and I said this in another thread? Armanti Edwards is a poor man?s Juice Williams and we all know how good he is and can be.

I've heard that Armani Edwards has not lost as a STARTER.

Then again, we all know how well Michigan deals with mobile QB's!

 

[starBUCKS]

True. I'm not saying they'd move up to I-A, errr the BCS, and go 10-2. I think they'd do quite well in the MAC and maybe win their division in their first year like Marshall did in 1997 (I'd put the current ASU team at the same level as the 1996 Marshall team which won the I-AA NC the year before they jumped up to the MAC). I also had stated they could go 5-3 in the Big Ten with their current team...hell, they're 1-0 already.

People just shouldn't blow off the top teams in the FCS just because they're in the FCS.

I really couldn't see them going 5-3 in the Big 10. scUM was blindsided and unprepared. Our bottom dwellers Indiana, Minnesota and Northwestern may play them close. But I don't think they could beat Iowa, Purdue, MSU or Illinois. Let alone PSU, Wisky, OSU let alone scUM again.

 

[Oh8ch]

I can think of a half-dozen BCS conference teams off the top of my head -? Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina and Baylor ?- that would be instantly better with Armanti Edwards as their quarterback or Dexter Jackson as a receiver

Another factor in all of this is the spread as an equalizer. To play smash mouth football you need some big hosses up front. But as WVU and other schools have shown just two gifted athletes can move a program up dramatically.

 

[Mike80]

I really couldn't see them going 5-3 in the Big 10. scUM was blindsided and unprepared. Our bottom dwellers Indiana, Minnesota and Northwestern may play them close. But I don't think they could beat Iowa, Purdue, MSU or Illinois. Let alone PSU, Wisky, OSU let alone scUM again.

Indiana and Northwestern would be able to win their games. Both coaching staffs get their players ready to play (hence the difference between Northwestern's opening game last year and this year).

What happened Saturday was the confluence of a mobile QB who got hot (which Michigan didn't have a prayer at stopping), a distracted and disinterested Michigan team playing very poorly and a timely (for App State) injury to Mike Hart that might've kept him from getting 300 yards on the ground.

Lightning struck. It will probably happen again although it might take 50 years or it might not.

 

[TooTall]

Indiana and Northwestern would be able to win their games. Both coaching staffs get their players ready to play (hence the difference between Northwestern's opening game last year and this year).

What happened Saturday was the confluence of a mobile QB who got hot hot hot! (which Michigan didn't have a prayer at stopping), a distracted and disinterested Michigan team playing very poorly and a timely (for App State) injury to Mike Hart that might've kept him from getting 300 yards on the ground.

Lightning struck. It will probably happen again although it might take 50 years or it might not.

Fixed your post for ya!

 

[Dryden]

That said, the best team Marshall ever fielded winning at the home of a Big Ten team that was expected to contend for the title is one hell of an upset.

Those Marshall teams that were QB'ed by Leftwich and Pennington would've hung 40 on Michigan's secondary with Carr/English at the helm. Go back and look at Michigan's PF/PA splits game by game since 1998. They've given up 30+ points in a game A LOT for a program that garners 'elite' status ... usually three or four times a season (twice as many times compared to OSU just since 2001, when JT took over).

Lloyd Carr has been head coach of UM since 1995. Does anyone realize he's only won five bowl games in 13 chances? In the five bowl W's he's earned, his team needed to score 30+ to win three of them, because the D still gave up 30+. The only bowl team he's ever shut down was that Ryan Leaf-lead Washington squad in '97. That's the only defense he's ever had, and he inherited that one from Gary Moeller. For crying out loud, alcoholics recruit better DBs than Carr does!!!

The surprise isn't that App St beat #5 ranked Michigan. The surprise was that Michigan was ever ranked #5 to begin with.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

I really couldn't see them going 5-3 in the Big 10. scUM was blindsided and unprepared. Our bottom dwellers Indiana, Minnesota and Northwestern may play them close. But I don't think they could beat Iowa, Purdue, MSU or Illinois. Let alone PSU, Wisky, OSU let alone scUM again.

Folks were doubting that Marshall would do well in the MAC, but they went 7-1 in their first year. Yeah, the MAC is not the Big Ten, but I'm not saying ASU would go 7-1 in the Big Ten. The only teams in the Big Ten that should clearly handle ASU are Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan (and we saw what happened). ASU would handle Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, and Northwestern, and could hang with the rest (Iowa, Penn State, Purdue, and Michigan State).

As for being Michigan being blind-sided and unprepared, that's no excuse...that's all on them.

 

[OSUsushichic]

NC State beat ASU last year 23-10. NCSU only won 3 games last year (and lost to Akron).

Different year, but still.