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Most Likely to Lose?

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Yertle

Yertle

Pounding out aggression, turns into obsession
I was arguing with some work guys today about who is the most likely of the 6 undefeateds to lose one of their remaining games. For simplicity, let's not even worry about Fresno and NIU. That leaves Bama, FSU, OSU, and Baylor. Taking off my scarlet glasses, I tried to fairly judge who is most likely to lose.

Remaining schedules:
1. Bama: Miss St (4-5), Chattanooga... yeah, those powerful SEC non-conference schedules... (8-2), Auburn (9-1), SEC CCG (Miss, USC?)
2. FSU: Syracuse (5-4), Idaho... again, making OSU's schedule look pretty good (1-9), Florida (4-5), ACC CCG (V tech?)
3. THE OSU: Illinois (3-6), Indiana (4-5), Michgan (6-3), B1G CCG (MSU/Neb?)
4. Baylor: Texas Tech (7-3), Ok State (8-1), TCU (4-6), Texas (7-2)

Going by my gut, I'd say Bama has the tougest road and FSU has the easiest. I truly feel very underwhelmed with FSU but I have touble seeing a loss. I am also underwhelmed wih Baylor, and I see Ok St giving them troubles. And maybe (dare I say) Texas. I think Ohio State is also over-rated (sorry, but I told you I was taking off the glasses), but I don't see a loss on this schedule, unless MSU shuts us down. My list of likelihood these teams win out:

1. FSU
2. OSU
3. Bama
4. Baylor

Nothing against Bama... I think they are the best team in the country. Just stating that their road is the toughest relative to their level of play. But, I'd bet if we play in the NCG, it's against FSU. Maybe this would be a good poll. Don't know. But, everyone here at work thinks the Bucks are most likely to lose.
 
I wouldn't be at all surprised of Baylor, Bama, and FSU lose in that order.
And then we see a media meltdown as they argue over whether 'Bama or FSU deserve the shot, with 'Bama eventually winning on the basis of "7 NCGs" (ironically after an entire year of saying that our two-season long win streak shouldn't count for anything)
 
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Playing opponents with a pulse increases chance for a loss. If you agree with that statement then look at it like this;

Baylor: 3 decent opponents left
Bama: 2 decent opponents left in Auburn and SEC CG
OSU: 1 decent opponent left in B1G CG (if its Sparty)
FSU: 0 Decent opponents left (unless Florida can somehow unfuck themselves for one day)

Odds have to be on a FSU vs OSU NCG.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Playing opponents with a pulse increases chance for a loss. If you agree with that statement then look at it like this;

Baylor: 3 decent opponents left
Bama: 2 decent opponents left in Auburn and SEC CG
OSU: 1 decent opponent left in B1G CG (if its Sparty)
FSU: 0 Decent opponents left (unless Florida can somehow unfuck themselves for one day)

Odds have to be on a FSU vs OSU NCG.
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Agree with this.

That said, bring on the CHAOS!!!
 
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BUCKYLE said:
FSU loses to UF by two. Had a chance to win but the FG sailed wide...right.
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Love the attitude, Kyle. But, the sad fact is that this Buckeye team, coached by the best Coach in all of CFB is going to be 25-0 under his reign and will yet to play for a National Championship.

I never thought that I would see the day whereby a College Football team named "THE Ohio State Buckeyes" would be on a 25 game win streak and NOT be playing for a NC. But, thats whats gonna happen.

Peace
 
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kujirakira said:
I wouldn't be at all surprised of Baylor, Bama, and FSU lose in that order.
And then we see a media meltdown as they argue over whether 'Bama or FSU deserve the shot, with 'Bama eventually winning on the basis of "7 NCGs" (ironically after an entire year of saying that our two-season long win streak shouldn't count for anything)
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I'd love to see all 3 of them lose and then watch ESPiN shit itself over who should go between Stanford and Bama.
 
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Answer: Bama

What if a QB would suffer an injury? I'm obviously not wishing for it to happen, but what happens if FSU would be up 35-0 over whoever in the ACC bludgeoning game and he gets hit and say breaks a leg? FSU is certainly not a top 2 team without him. What if it would happen against the Gators? How much would they have to beat a lame duck opponent in that same ACC game by? I imagine you could ask the same thing about Bama.
 
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HorseshoeFetish said:
Answer: Bama

What if a QB would suffer an injury? I'm obviously not wishing for it to happen, but what happens if FSU would be up 35-0 over whoever in the ACC bludgeoning game and he gets hit and say breaks a leg? FSU is certainly not a top 2 team without him. What if it would happen against the Gators? How much would they have to beat a lame duck opponent in that same ACC game by? I imagine you could ask the same thing about Bama.
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Bama losing their qb would probably mean little as they are a strong run based team with play action as the second option. Fsu is pass heavy spread team. But both have great defenses. Osu is the best of both worlds, with a great defense, and a very balanced offense with arguably tje best 2nd string qb in the nation
 
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I want Bama so bad, so I hope that FSU somehow loses to Florida or to Va Tech in their CCG. I think we're going to need some November magic down in SEC country though, as I don't see anyone beating FSU. I highly doubt Mississippi State can pull off the upset, but maybe Auburn can.

Who do you think matches up best with Bama in the SECCG? I think it's South Carolina but they need a little help from the rest of the conference because Mizzou is in the drivers seat.
 
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Our friends in Vegas say this;

Odds to win BCS CG
Bama +125
FSU +170
Baylor +700
OSU +850

I'm quite surprised by the Baylor line.

BTW Jameis Winston is -420 to win the Heisman.
 
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MaxBuck said:
Losing McCarron would be a death blow to Bama's national championship hopes. He's a lot more important to that team than most people realize.
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I wouldn't go near that far for mccarron. Hes a very good game manager and fits the Alabama offense, but make no mistake, theyre a power run team. That's why they have 2 RBs with well over a 1000yds, and a qb that has only 20tds and less than 270 pass attempts. And on top of that they have one of the top 3 o lines as well, ans only ask for their qb to handoff and manage games.
If FSU lost Winston, then that'd be a deathblow! He has almost the bulk of the offensive stats and they have an average run game.
 
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