Oversigning (capacity 25, everyone welcome! maybe)

[Gatorubet]

Again, let's discuss Bama. There's quite a wide gulf between Bama and Florida from what we've seen, whereas LSU seems to be closer to the former.

What is your reaction to these articles and breakdowns?

You quoted the negative. I'll post the "positive" quotes and then respond.

In some cases, the players who took these scholarships say they didn't feel pressured. Charles Hoke, a former Alabama offensive lineman who took a medical scholarship in 2008 because of a shoulder problem, said the choice was left entirely up to him and was based on the many conversations he had with the team's doctors and trainers over the course of his junior year.

Kirschman said the school offered in the summer of 2009 to pay for his graduate degree in business?an offer he accepted?and that he still gets some of the same perks as players. "I still get game tickets, which is nice," he says.
Mr. Kirschman said the decision to take the medical scholarship was ultimately his, and that he decided to do it to open up a scholarship for the good of the team. But he said he felt he was pressured. "It was pushed," he said.

In August 2009, Jeramie Griffin, a redshirt sophomore running back at Alabama, tore an anterior cruciate ligament in his knee during a practice?an injury that kept him out for that season. After undergoing surgery, he said, "I came back in the spring and I was OK."

Mr. Griffin said he doesn't contest the results of the physical and said it was "basically my decision" to forgo the rest of his playing career.

So. Is Nicky trying to rid Bama of anyone who is not a potential starter? Seems clear that he is. Was there a medical justification for the medical release or just b.s. made up by Saban? It seems that it is unclear and needs a case by case basis review. A doctor(s) signed off on it, so unless they don't value a license I would suspect it is not completely fabricated. It is also true that a student athlete can say whatever he wants about his medical situation not being as bad, but that the university is prohibited from commenting on anything having to do with a medical status. I would assume that some players have an ax to grind and a bias in being asked to separate from the team. It would be a crushing blow to the social and self esteem status of a 20-21 year old. So while you have to take what they say with a grain of salt, the fact that they did not speak negatively of the decision may be just the loyalty to the team and coach and former players. My problem is that my world at work consists of taking and defending and attacking statements made by people when their self interests are involved, so I have jaded attitude about taking any statement - let alone one not under oath - as true on its face. All bias is not intentionally false, some is just human nature.

So my take is that Nick is using the medical exemptions as a tool to weed out some kids who would stay under other coaches, and to also weed out some kids who should be weeded out. I think that the "looseness" in the rules leads to this, see the texting versus calling issue a few years back.

So one question that comes to mind is this: are other coaches keeping kids in the program who may legally me weeded out under the rules because of a sense of loyalty and repayment to a kid for hard work, and that is why they are not weeded out, or are the other coaches not having the injuries Bama has?

I think no way is Bama seeing more injuries. So I think that Bama is likely playing within the grey area of the rules, but that Nick is just much more of an asshole than most coaches - and one who has little regard for the work and effort put in my less than stellar players, and thus not a guy who has the players' interests at the top of his list of things to worry about. All of the kids, even the ones bitching, admitted that it was their decision. I'm sure than they were pressured in various ways, but then again, they all signed the docs saying that they agreed with the doctors, even the ones who now complain.

I have no problem with a limit on the number of medical shirts that can be used in any given year - or two - or three year period, which should easily take care of Lil Nicky's loop hole.

 

[Diego-Bucks]

Bull [Mark May]. Utter bull [Mark May]. Your thinking assumes that every one of the LOI signees were qualified, and that the number of spots among the present team would remain constant. You assume there were no academic casualties among them (either within the recruiting class or the team itself.) You statement fails to account for guys getting hurt, guys going pro, guys leaving the program, guys being dismissed for cause for criminal or discipline problems, etc.

I understand that you "find it hard to believe". But somebody, somewhere, should have those stats. And it will go your way and reveal a huge amount of kids launched for no reason but to better the SEC teams, or you will find that after all is said and done it is not that big a deal.

But we do not know. So it is fine to have an opinion, and fine to have a working hypothesis, but do not expect everyone to adopt that as truth when not only is the basic assumption about the number of kids replaced in SEC squad not proven, but the general assumption that oversigning lead to success is actually disproved - if the statistics on who does it and the results of that practice as success in the win loss column are correct.

To be honest, it sounds like looking for excuses to explain why the SEC has been so successful to the detriment of other conferences, including your own. And that, of course, is just my homer SEC opinion. I grant you that I am not unbiased.

I consider myself somewhat of a scientist so I wanted to see what I could come up with. Skip ahead to the "Summary" to avoid length.

This is a working hypothesis given the 85 scholarship limit and the known available current budget for the Alabama Crimson Tide for the 2011 recruiting season.

Availability of scholarships is at 10 seniors and 4 early departing NFL juniors for 14 scholarships. Alabama is currently set to accept at least 22 LOIs, but this will probably number closer to 26.

Prediction: Among the 22-26 incoming freshmen LOIs there will be acadamic casualities and non-quals. No big deal, happens often enough. Lets say the number is 4 incoming freshmen fail to qualify. That gives us a number of 18-22 LOIs to place into 14 scholarships. I believe that Saban shall ask the lowest rated 2011 LOIs, say the 2-stars and 3-stars to grey shirt. Lets say that another 2 players get knocked off the class. We won't hear about that greyshirt situation before NLOID. Saban shall not state the intention to greyshirt until they player has signed a contract. That leaves us between 16-20 freshmen LOIs to fill in 14 available scholarships. Alabama's roster shall once again need attrition to occur in order to get under the 85-man limit.

This is where my hypothesis comes in: the roster attrition will not come to bear fruit until after spring football practice and before that August 26th date. The attrition will take the form of medical hardship injuries that are mostly unverifiable (requires player to disclose information to media), transfers from non-starting athletes, aka the "non-contributors" and more academic casualties.

The critical set of criteria that bears success to this hypothesis is the post-spring football and pre- August 26th scholarship date. If the attrition were more consistently random in nature, then the form of attrition should be distrubuted randomly in the calendar year. We would hear about academic casualties and career-ending injuries throughout the course of the university's academic and athletic calendar.

Additionally, I am already predicting medical hardship exemptions for Alabama players with no prior knowledge of the player, injury or depth chart situation. I am going to work under the premise that the medical hardship exemption shall go towards a player(s) that is currently not slated to be in the Crimson Tide's 2-deep. If the injury (and subsequent doctor's evaluation of the viability of medical hardship) were truly random, we should see equal distribution of starters and also the "non-contributers". I predict that we shall not see random distribution in either the calendar year, nor the depth chart of the players in question. Further, I shall work under the premise that we shall see some form of medical hardship waiver granted by Alabama, when if it were truly random (i.e. the nature of the catastrophic injury were random) then it would have to conform more within probability of injury (nearly impossible to actually quantify, but one could plausibly use well-published NFL injury records to compare between "career-ending injuries") and would inherently be less predictable than the criteria I have selected.

*Note* this article shows the vagueness of the medical hardship non-counter rule, it's mostly up to the treating physician paid by the university to determine the viability of the hardship request
http://www.collegeathletictrainer.org/newsletter/article.php?article=2

In summary:
1. Alabama will have "over-signed" their 2011 class by X number (even after greyshirts and academic casualties).
2. Alabama will need attrition on the roster in order to meet the 85 scholarship threshold.
3. The attrition will not occur until the dates between Spring football and August 26th or whatever the final roster authorization date is.
4. The roster attrition will take the shape of medical hardship non-counters of "non-contributors", transfer's of non-contributers and academic casualties.
5. The roster attrition will not be random as it is predictable to a limited set of dates, it is predicting that catastrophic injuries shall happen (or in this case, the injuries shall be deemed catastrophic career-enders by a Crimson Tide staff member), and it is limited to a specific number of players defined here-in as "non-contributors".

It's not the most scientific thing I've come up with. It will be incredibily difficult to link in a correlative factor of competitive advantage associated with "over-signing". I can make plausible arguments of competitive advantage and my opponent can dismiss them with just as plausible of arguments. But the ability to shed the roster of quantifiable "non-contributors" through the above practice is where most opponents to the practice will attempt to make their case that such an advantage exists.

 

[chance]

Wait - there are individual programs in the SEC?

Wow barely into 2011 and we already have the post of the year.

 

[Gatorubet]

This is a working hypothesis given the 85 scholarship limit and the known available current budget for the Alabama Crimson Tide for the 2011 recruiting season.

Availability of scholarships is at 10 seniors and 4 early departing NFL juniors for 14 scholarships. Alabama is currently set to accept at least 22 LOIs, but this will probably number closer to 26.

Prediction: Among the 22-26 incoming freshmen LOIs there will be acadamic casualities and non-quals. No big deal, happens often enough. Lets say the number is 4 incoming freshmen fail to qualify. That gives us a number of 18-22 LOIs to place into 14 scholarships. I believe that Saban shall ask the lowest rated 2011 LOIs, say the 2-stars and 3-stars to grey shirt. Lets say that another 2 players get knocked off the class. We won't hear about that greyshirt situation before NLOID. Saban shall not state the intention to greyshirt until they player has signed a contract. That leaves us between 16-20 freshmen LOIs to fill in 14 available scholarships. Alabama's roster shall once again need attrition to occur in order to get under the 85-man limit.

This is where my hypothesis comes in: the roster attrition will not come to bear fruit until after spring football practice and before that August 26th date. The attrition will take the form of medical hardship injuries that are mostly unverifiable (requires player to disclose information to media), transfers from non-starting athletes, aka the "non-contributors" and more academic casualties.

The critical set of criteria that bears success to this hypothesis is the post-spring football and pre- August 26th scholarship date. If the attrition were more consistently random in nature, then the form of attrition should be distrubuted randomly in the calendar year. We would hear about academic casualties and career-ending injuries throughout the course of the university's academic and athletic calendar.

Additionally, I am already predicting medical hardship exemptions for Alabama players with no prior knowledge of the player, injury or depth chart situation. I am going to work under the premise that the medical hardship exemption shall go towards a player(s) that is currently not slated to be in the Crimson Tide's 2-deep. If the injury (and subsequent doctor's evaluation of the viability of medical hardship) were truly random, we should see equal distribution of starters and also the "non-contributers". I predict that we shall not see random distribution in either the calendar year, nor the depth chart of the players in question. Further, I shall work under the premise that we shall see some form of medical hardship waiver granted by Alabama, when if it were truly random (i.e. the nature of the catastrophic injury were random) then it would have to conform more within probability of injury (nearly impossible to actually quantify, but one could plausibly use well-published NFL injury records to compare between "career-ending injuries") and would inherently be less predictable than the criteria I have selected.

*Note* this article shows the vagueness of the medical hardship non-counter rule, it's mostly up to the treating physician paid by the university to determine the viability of the hardship request
http://www.collegeathletictrainer.org/newsletter/article.php?article=2

In summary:
1. Alabama will have "over-signed" their 2011 class by X number (even after greyshirts and academic casualties).
2. Alabama will need attrition on the roster in order to meet the 85 scholarship threshold.
3. The attrition will not occur until the dates between Spring football and August 26th or whatever the final roster authorization date is.
4. The roster attrition will take the shape of medical hardship non-counters of "non-contributors", transfer's of non-contributers and academic casualties.
5. The roster attrition will not be random as it is predictable to a limited set of dates, it is predicting that catastrophic injuries shall happen (or in this case, the injuries shall be deemed catastrophic career-enders by a Crimson Tide staff member), and it is limited to a specific number of players defined here-in as "non-contributors".

I'm in agreement with about everything you say here generally, although I don't follow the 'Phants enough to know the certainty of the Tide numbers...so the "X" is the question. Will they continue with large LOI numbers.

It's not the most scientific thing I've come up with. It will be incredibily difficult to link in a correlative factor of competitive advantage associated with "over-signing". I can make plausible arguments of competitive advantage and my opponent can dismiss them with just as plausible of arguments. But the ability to shed the roster of quantifiable "non-contributors" through the above practice is where most opponents to the practice will attempt to make their case that such an advantage exists.

Agree with you totally.

 

[Gatorubet]

Wow barely into 2011 and we already have the post of the year.

To be fair, I can see why you'd not want to have anything to do with Indiana. :p

 

[Gatorubet]

Obviously I did miss it.

Care to give it to me again?

But since someone like Saban is doing it, you have to think that he thinks he is doing it to better his program. So if it is not an advantage, he sure thinks it is an advantage. I never said that getting better was not the reason for it being done. I have just never seen any data supporting a connection to oversigning and on the field success within programs (or between conferences.)

Part of that post Jax. Then again, Al Davis really, truly thought Russell would be a great QB, so what a coach does thinking it is a great idea is not the end all, be all.

 

[jwinslow]

To be fair, I can see why you'd not want to have anything to do with Indiana. :p

You shut your mouth. An extra home game every two years (at bargain prices) is a delight.

 

[jwinslow]

So have your opinions changed regarding Alabama, or were you aware of those issues and simply defending the broad brush against the conference?

 

[JBaney45]

Wait - there are individual programs in the SEC?

Negative, as seen by this photo I took at the 2008 BCS championship game:

One of those 2 is indeed female fyi

 

[sandgk]

One of those 2 is indeed female fyi

Well, generally, Auburn is 'Bama's bitch.

 

[Gatorubet]

So have your opinions changed regarding Alabama, or were you aware of those issues and simply defending the broad brush against the conference?

That Alabama would sell it soul to the devil to get better.....but that a review of Hell's records showed that Bama had sold their soul five times already, so Saban's offer was refused???

Yeah. Bama is full goose crazy. See the "We got 12" t-shirts.

Am I defending the broad brush against the conference? Yeah. Do I think that our BCS success is due to our cheating our way into the winner's circle? No.

I think the SEC and the states that the schools are located in care far more about their football's team's success than the fans in most of the other conferences. We (SEC schools) - as a fan base - have more devoted and crazed fans than any other conference. It is childish in many respects, the way the huge number of folks follow their schools and live and die with every win or loss.

Your fans would fit in well from that perspective. Y'all are well informed, and passionate about the results of every game. Your heroes are icons. But most SEC fans are not only caring who wins their team's games, they will watch Vandy play Kentucky on TV...just because..

Let us not get into the SEC chant thing again here. But think about this: if that is a sign of how seriously they take the success of their freaking conference, then imagine how seriously they take the success of their own program. So seriously that any grey area will be exploited to gain any advantage. Hell, the Big-10 has had one program represent it in the history of the BCSNC. The state of Alabama has had two BCSNC winners!

The Auburn-Bama competition is akin to The Game participants from a hate standpoint, but both of the participants are not only in the same conference, they both are from the same freaking state!!!!! They want to beat their rivals any way they can - and Auburn and Bama are the most likely candidates to be stretching the envelope - or breaking the rules - than any programs in the SEC. So that is my opinion about Bama.

 

[Gatorubet]

Negative, as seen by this photo I took at the 2008 BCS championship game:

One of those 2 is indeed female fyi

Grad and Win will verify that Lil UBet and I wore Gator gear to the game. (they were out of SEC polos when I tried to get one )

 

[BB73]

That Alabama would sell it soul to the devil to get better.....but that a review of Hell's records showed that Bama had sold their soul five times already, so Saban's offer was refused???

Yeah. Bama is full goose crazy. See the "We got 12" t-shirts.

Am I defending the broad brush against the conference? Yeah. Do I think that our BCS success is due to our cheating our way into the winner's circle? No.

I think the SEC and the states that the schools are located in care far more about their football's team's success than the fans in most of the other conferences. We (SEC schools) - as a fan base - have more devoted and crazed fans than any other conference. It is childish in many respects, the way the huge number of folks follow their schools and live and die with every win or loss.

Your fans would fit in well from that perspective. Y'all are well informed, and passionate about the results of every game. Your heroes are icons. But most SEC fans are not only caring who wins their team's games, they will watch Vandy play Kentucky on TV...just because..

That sentence is borderline insulting to me.

I think that there are a great many of us Buckeye fans that watch a lot more college football than the typical SEC fan. I believe that many SEC fans watch very few games that don't involve SEC teams, partly due to a feeling that non-SEC games don't matter.

 

[osugrad21]

Grad and Win will verify that Lil UBet and I wore Gator gear to the game. (they were out of SEC polos when I tried to get one )

...and your son did also. I never could catch that nifty handshake you had going with the Arkansas fans though....insult the other program, handshake, sullen nod, two chest pats, S-E-C chant.

Strange.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

That sentence is borderline insulting to me.

I think that there are a great many of us Buckeye fans that watch a lot more college football than the typical SEC fan. I believe that many SEC fans watch very few games that don't involve SEC teams, partly due to a feeling that non-SEC games don't matter.

You hardly watch any football. :p