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Reds tidbits (2010 season)

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scott91575;1748963; said:
Meh.

People forget at the time Dunn had little value and was a free agent the next year. He was making $13 million a year, and only was nothing more than a rental (a short one at that). The deal was made after the trade deadline too, which hurt some value.

Dunn was not coming back to the Reds, anyway. Most GM's in baseball would not touch Dunn with a 10 foot pole at the time. From 2006 through 2008 he had an average WAR of 1.9. That is below starter level. Plus he did not seem to want to stay in Cincy any longer.

Certainly I would take him over Gomes, but at $10,000,000 per year the Nationals overpaid for him. It paid off this year, but Dunn has been near the top if not at the top of baseball's overpaid list for the 4 years previous to this one.

If anything it sucks they didn't pull of anything prior to the trade deadline, but even then Dunn had little value. Well, either that or just hang onto him and get a draft pick. He probably would not have accepted arbitration, and it could have led to 2 draft picks.

Yet hey, the Reds still have 25 year old Dallas Buck with an ERA over 6 in the AA.
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You can make the case he's been overpaid if you go by WAR exclusively but at the top of the list is a big stretch.

Todd Helton, Vernon Wells, A Soriano, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee and Carlos Zambrano (Carlos must be spanish for overpaid) all come to mind pretty quickly as much more grossly over paid in the recent past or current year. That's just off the top of my head, I'm sure there are some I'm forgetting.
 
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The problem with the use of WAR in characterizing Adam Dunn's value to the Reds is that the Reds played him at the wrong position for his entire career, if you go solely by WAR. He may be a 1.5 WAR LF, but he's a 3.4 WAR 1B, and one of the Top 5 1Bs in the NL. Dunn would also slot in nicely as one of the top 3 or 4 DHs around for the next half-decade if he went to the AL.

Dunn's going to present HoF voters a hell of a dilemma when he wraps up his career with over 600 HRs (perhaps 700+)!

Don't blame the player because the organization was habitually stupid to keep running him out into left (discounting the argument of whether LF defense is even important to begin with).

Top 15 MLB 1B by WAR value

Joey Votto 5.5
Albert Pujols 5.2
Miguel Cabrera 5
Aubrey Huff 4.4
Kevin Youkilis 4.1
Adrian Gonzalez 4
Adam Dunn 3.4
Prince Fielder 3.3
Paul Konerko 2.8
Daric Barton 2.6
Billy Butler 2.5
Mark Teixeira 2.2
Gaby Sanchez 2.2
Mike Napoli 2.2
Ryan Howard 1.9
 
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Dryden;1749147; said:
The problem with the use of WAR in characterizing Adam Dunn's value to the Reds is that the Reds played him at the wrong position for his entire career, if you go solely by WAR. He may be a 1.5 WAR LF, but he's a 3.4 WAR 1B, and one of the Top 5 1Bs in the NL. Dunn would also slot in nicely as one of the top 3 or 4 DHs around for the next half-decade if he went to the AL.

Dunn's going to present HoF voters a hell of a dilemma when he wraps up his career with over 600 HRs (perhaps 700+)!

Don't blame the player because the organization was habitually stupid to keep running him out into left (discounting the argument of whether LF defense is even important to begin with).

Top 15 MLB 1B by WAR value

Joey Votto 5.5
Albert Pujols 5.2
Miguel Cabrera 5
Aubrey Huff 4.4
Kevin Youkilis 4.1
Adrian Gonzalez 4
Adam Dunn 3.4
Prince Fielder 3.3
Paul Konerko 2.8
Daric Barton 2.6
Billy Butler 2.5
Mark Teixeira 2.2
Gaby Sanchez 2.2
Mike Napoli 2.2
Ryan Howard 1.9
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You can't really take just this year and say "hey, he is a 3.4 WAR player at first." This is his best year since 2007. Playing first costs you .5 WAR vs. LF, and his sabermetric fielding numbers at 1st aren't much better than in left field with the Reds (last year with the Nats he was horrendous). The -.5 WAR you get for playing first makes up the difference. The simple fact is he is hitting like he did in 2004, 2005, and 2007 (he is also regressing as of late).

No matter how you want to spin it, if you went back to 2008 and looked at Adam Dunn hardly anyone would think "oh yeah, he is worth $10,000,000 a year." You get what you get with Dunn, but no matter how bad people think we let Adam Dunn go, the simple fact is he was overpaid and wasn't coming back anyway. I understand when people defend him when others bash him, but he wasn't going to be a Red after 2008 no matter what and his trade value was next to nothing.

Oh, and 700+? He would have to play until he was 40 and stay at a similar HR pace. That isn't happening. Heck, to get to 600 he needs to average 40 HR's until he is 36 (almost 37).

On top of all that, he is a .295 career BABIP player. He is at .333 this year. That is starting to show in the last month as he regressing back to mean, and even more worrisome is his walk rate is declining yet his strike out rate is as bad as ever.
 
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Jaxbuck;1749091; said:
You can make the case he's been overpaid if you go by WAR exclusively but at the top of the list is a big stretch.

Todd Helton, Vernon Wells, A Soriano, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee and Carlos Zambrano (Carlos must be spanish for overpaid) all come to mind pretty quickly as much more grossly over paid in the recent past or current year. That's just off the top of my head, I'm sure there are some I'm forgetting.
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Well, I said near if not at the top. Not all those players were overpaid up to 4 years ago (although Carlos Lee has been habitually overpaid). I am talking about 2006, 2008, and 2009. In 06 his value was close to a replacement player and he made over 7 million. In 08 he was barely at starter level and made $13,000,000. Last year he once again was not even at starter level making $8,000,000. Those years put him on the list, and I know he led some lists after his 2006 year (probably using his 2007 salary combined with 06 stats). Certainly there are other guys there too, but Adam Dunn has popped up there multiple times.
 
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Hoffman fans Ryan on three pitches to end the game with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th. Brewers win 3-2.

Last time StL had a lead in any ballgame was 35 innings ago. Good idea trading Ludwick so John Jay could play everyday. Jackasses.
 
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sounds like Chapman gonna be called up September 1

The Reds had hoped to have Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman in majors by now. But they decided to give him more time in Triple-A.

Were going to wait until Sept. 1, Walt Jocketty said. That will give him a chance to stabilize in the bullpen and get more experience. Were trying to find the right time.

Chapman will be eligible for the playoffs.

We have two extra spots because we have two players on the 60-man disabled list, Jocketty said.
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