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Scenarios for Final 2022 CFP Rankings

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BB73

BB73

Loves Buckeye History
Staff member
Bookie
'16 & '17 Upset Contest Winner
OK, this attempts to predict how the committee will rank teams at the end of the year. It does NOT try to predict the outcomes of the remaining games or which scenarios will actually occur. But if you have a scenario in mind that includes all the results, scrolling the numbered list from top down until you find teams that match your results will find what I'm guessing will be the 4 seeds, in order.

I am listing the resumes of each team based on the following criteria: A good win is against an FBS team with no more than 3 losses, a close win is any game within 8 points, overtime games are indicated, and large margins of victory are listed if the opponent is a ‘good’ team as previously defined. Sorry, the # of close wins for UNC messes up my formatting.

The only current 2-loss teams included are LSU and Alabama. The only current 1-loss team excluded is Coastal Carolina.

TeamRemaining gamesGood WinsLossesOther Close wins
Georgia@Ky, Ga Tech, LSUOregon(+46), Tenn - Mizzou
tOSU@Md, TTUN, CCGND, @Penn St - -
TTUNIllini, @ tOSU, no CCGPenn St - Maryland
TCU@Baylor, Ia St, CCGOkla St(OT), Kans St - @SMU, Kans, @Tex
Tennessee@S. Car., @Vandy@LSU(+27), Bama@Georgia(-14)@Pitt(OT), Fla
USC@UCLA, ND, CCG@Oregon St(+3)@Utah(-1)Arizona, Cal
LSUUAB, @aTm, UGAMiss(+25), Bama(OT)FSU(-1), Tenn(-27)@Aub, @Ark
ClemsonMiaFL, S. Car., @UNC@Fla St(+6)@ND(-21)@Wake(OT), Syr(+6)
AlabamaAustin Peay, AuburnOle Miss(+6)@Tenn(-3), @LSU(OT)@Tex(+1), aTm(+4)
TeamRemaining gamesGood WinsLossesOther Close wins
N. CarolinaGa Tech, NC St, Clemson@Duke(+3)ND(-13)@AppSt(+2), @GaSt(+7), @MiaFL(+3), @Va(+3), @Wake(+2)
I had to avoid scenarios which are extremely unlikely, like Georgia beating LSU but losing to both Ky and Ga Tech, or tOSU winning The Game but losing both at Maryland and in the CCG.

NOTE - most scenarios cannot co-exist, so the first 4 teams and Tennessee are believed to control their own destiny. And UGA is believed to be in the top-4 if they beat Ky and Ga Tech, even if they lose to LSU.

#01. UGA undefeated thru CCG
#02. tOSU undefeated thru CCG
#03. TTUN undefeated thru CCG (mutually exclusive with #02)
#04. TCU undefeated thru CCG
#05. UGA with 1 loss, even if it’s to LSU in CCG (head-to-head over Tenn)
#06. Tenn wins out, no CCG
#07. tOSU 1-loss to Md, wins CCG
#08. TTUN 1-loss to Illini, wins CCG
#09. USC wins out over UCLA, ND, and CCG (possible revenge over Utah)
#10. LSU wins out with CCG over UGA
#11. tOSU with 1-loss and no CCG win
#12. TTUN with 1 loss and no CCG win
#13. Clemson wins out with CCG over UNC
#14. Bama wins out, has 2 losses, no CCG
#15. TCU with a loss but a CCG win
#15. UNC wins out with CCG win over Clemson
#16. TCU with 1 loss in the CCG

Alabama’s can only end up with one good win, over Ole Miss, who has no good wins of their own. They’re toast.

USC need to win out and have TCU lose, I think they’d end up ahead of every 1-loss non conference champion except Tennessee.

I think Georgia is the only team that could pick up a loss and still be reasonably safe to get in.
 
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I think 2 SEC teams are getting in at this point, just to be seen what combo of Georgia, Tennessee & LSU it is.

USC might have a fighting chance if put up against Tennessee. But I think they'd take Tennessee based on USC's loss being worse and USC having no wins as good as Bama. The UGA Tennessee game was of course in no way close, but it was close enough on the scoreboard to keep Tennessee easily within striking distance of the top 4. That garbage 4th quarter TD they scored was really big for them in retaining position.
 
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LordJeffBuck said:
Looks like a very good chance that we'll see #1 Georgia, #2 Ohio State (or Michigan), #3 Tennessee, and #4 Michigan (or Ohio State) in the CFP.
Click to expand...
A loss by TCU, a loss by USC, and Georgia over LSU will result in that as long as tOSU and TTUN don’t lose outside The Game.

I don’t think the Clemson-UNC winner or 2-loss Bama is going to jump the team that drops The Game. But I think an undefeated TCU certainly gets in, 1-loss Tennessee would get in, and a 1-loss USC would be next up, ahead of a B1G team without a CCG win.
 
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BB73 said:
A loss by TCU, a loss by USC, and Georgia over LSU will result in that as long as tOSU and TTUN don’t lose outside The Game.

I don’t think the Clemson-UNC winner or 2-loss Bama is going to jump the team that drops The Game. But I think an undefeated TCU certainly gets in, 1-loss Tennessee would get in, and a 1-loss USC would be next up, ahead of a B1G team without a CCG win.
Click to expand...

Agree completely with the only stipulation that if the Buckeyes hang a hundred on them they will have to take the Rose Bowl consolation prize
 
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BB73 said:
tOSU@Md, TTUN, CCGND, @Penn St - - TTUNIllini, @ tOSU, no CCGPenn St - Maryland[/TABLE]
.
Click to expand...

Hmmmm, yeah Maryland pushed Michigan to the very end. Wouldn't it be fair to state that the Buckeye's game with Penn State was close? Penn State held a lead from half time to the middle of the 4th quarter. It was only that burst of scores that began with something like 7 minutes left in the game that made it look like a blowout.
 
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Call me crazy, but I don't see Michigan getting into the CFP unless they beat OSU and win the B1G title game.
A loss in either of those games and their strength of schedule knocks them too far down. UT would have a better resume at that point (for that matter, so would Souther Cal)
 
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BigWoof31 said:
Call me crazy, but I don't see Michigan getting into the CFP unless they beat OSU and win the B1G title game.
A loss in either of those games and their strength of schedule knocks them too far down. UT would have a better resume at that point (for that matter, so would Souther Cal)
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The rest of the CFP field is so bad, that there's a strong argument for a "quality loss" for Michigan if they keep it close enough. And I think they'd rather do that then let a 3rd SEC team in.

This is 2007 all over again in terms of a proper set of candidates, except there might be 1 strong option in UGA.
 
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cincibuck said:
Hmmmm, yeah Maryland pushed Michigan to the very end. Wouldn't it be fair to state that the Buckeye's game with Penn State was close? Penn State held a lead from half time to the middle of the 4th quarter. It was only that burst of scores that began with something like 7 minutes left in the game that made it look like a blowout.
Click to expand...
I only used final scores to determine close games. It gets into a gray area to do anything else, such as Kent State missing a 2-point conversion that would have made their contest against Georgia a 1-score game in the 4th quarter.
 
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