west Virginia #1 - Recruiting Officially Irrelevant

[crazybuckfan40]

What do you guys think about Mississippi next year? It looks like they're going to pull in a top 8 recruiting class this year. Do you think they'll be a top 25 team next year?

No b/c one good recruiting class doesnt usually take a 3-8 from bad to top 25, especially in the SEC.

If they put together a couple of classes then maybe they can start thinking that.

 

[jlb1705]

mississippi was 3-8 last year. Orgeron was highly touted, but 1 decent class probably will not remedy their recent woes (4 wins in 04, tho they had 10 in 03). I honestly have not followed them enough to know.

You know, a lot of people wanna bash Eli Manning, but you gotta be a pretty damn good player to lead Ole Miss to 10 wins. Talk about turning dog shit into uhh... cubic zirconias

And for the person who made the comment about Iowa and Ewe Tee being in the top 5 last year... If Iowa was in the Big Least, they would've put up top-5 results. As for Tennessee - they still wouldn't have made a bowl game because they sucked balls.

 

[crazybuckfan40]

You know, a lot of people wanna bash Eli Manning, but you gotta be a pretty damn good player to lead Ole Miss to 10 wins. Talk about turning dog shit into uhh... cubic zirconias

And for the person who made the comment about Iowa and Ewe Tee being in the top 5 last year... If Iowa was in the Big Least, they would've put up top-5 results. As for Tennessee - they still wouldn't have made a bowl game because they sucked balls.

Well Ole Miss was a complete team that year, and had a nice senior class, but since then they havent had much.

I totally agree about Iowa having top 5 results if they were in teh big East. That is what I am trying to say.

 

[0suFan2002]

Im new to posting on the site but i think its funny that acual buckeye fans are saying what have we done to deserve #1

We deserve #1 just as much as everyone else done.

Our offense is solid and our defense insnt bad as long as our linebackers learn quickly.

WE DESERVE #1

Can i get an all day baby we #1

 

[OSUBuckeye4Life]

So is ranking WVU high.

Much like a reason why WVU is going to be ranked high b/c of their schedule, which is what I don't like.

I don't think you are getting my point. In no way am I trying to discredit WVU, I am just saying that rankings based on weak schedules are weak rankings to me.

You sound like you know a little about WVU, I honestly do not know a whole lot about them, all I know is they have a qb and rb that are good, and they play in a very weak conference. I don't think they have the talent level to be ranked a top 5 team let alone number 1. As OhcH said it is very hard to have a team of unhighly ranked recruits be that good. Much like people tried to put Iowa up there this year, b/c they had a couple nice years and a good recruiting class last year.

I agree that if they are scheduled high because of their schedule that is wrong [hence why I dont think they should be #1] but I think based off of what they have done and who they have coming back [they are rebuilding the secondary] they probably deserve a top 5-8 spot until proven otherwise. It happens every year, and I understand the resentment with a team that has a very likely chance to go undefeated in a weaker conference to start that high, but they know they HAVE to go undefeated to sniff the championship game.

What do you guys think about Mississippi next year? It looks like they're going to pull in a top 8 recruiting class this year. Do you think they'll be a top 25 team next year?

They have picked up EIGHT JUCO transfers this offseason. Depending on how much experience those players have they stand a chance to be much inproved going into next year.

 

[Oh8ch]

I agree that if they are scheduled high because of their schedule that is wrong

There seem to be two philosophies on rankings. I always felt it should be based on how good you really believe a team is. But some pollsters admittedly base it on where they think a team will finish based on their schedule. If your goal is to predict where teams will finish that is probably a wise approach. 9-2 will almost never be ranked ahead of 11-0 even if we are talking SEC versus MAC.

 

[OSUBuckeye4Life]

There seem to be two philosophies on rankings. I always felt it should be based on how good you really believe a team is. But some pollsters admittedly base it on where they think a team will finish based on their schedule. If your goal is to predict where teams will finish that is probably a wise approach. 9-2 will almost never be ranked ahead of 11-0 even if we are talking SEC versus MAC.

I mean "ranked high" instead of "scheduled high."

You would think by this day and age it would be relayed throughout the voters that the pollls should be based on talent, not guessing where they are going to finish.

I honestly think WVU is a Top 10 worthy team, and I'll admit that I give thema spot or two because of what they accomplished last year [nothing to do with the schedule though].

 

[BB73]

The only team i care about is The Ohio State University.

I admire your statement of loyalty.
:osu:

But I also care about anything in the world of college football that could prevent tOSU from gaining a spot in the National Championship game.

That includes preseason polls, recruiting, all players declaring for the NFL, and a few other things.

 

[crazybuckfan40]

I agree that if they are scheduled high because of their schedule that is wrong [hence why I dont think they should be #1] but I think based off of what they have done and who they have coming back [they are rebuilding the secondary] they probably deserve a top 5-8 spot until proven otherwise. It happens every year, and I understand the resentment with a team that has a very likely chance to go undefeated in a weaker conference to start that high, but they know they HAVE to go undefeated to sniff the championship game.

Ok so I went and took a look at what they have for next year.

Offense: Yes they have a very nice rushing attack, but where is the passing game. White only had 828 yds. passing, with 8 tds to 5 ints.

This year they snuck up on people being under the radar, and having these freshmen come in. Next year they arent going to do that. Teams will stack the box and make them throw. Also their leading reciever graduated, and the next best had like 200 yds. While it is great to have a very good rb/qb combo, you have to have other things.

Defense: They lose about their whole secondary and from the looks of it they are banking on incoming freshmen to sure up their secondary. Their top two guys are Ryan Brinson and Robert Williams. Both guys we took passes on. Those are also their only two guys that are rated anything higher than 2 stars. I know stars don't mean anything, but all two stars isnt a way of building a NC type team.

Also if you missed the first half of the sugar bowl and just watched the second half you will see that UGA just had their way with that defense. Shockley had all day to throw, and if not for that gutsy call, UGA would of went down and scored at the end. Even the WV fans bash their d-line saying they are too slow.

I can't find their schedule, but I know they play @ Louisville, which will be a very tough game having a young secondary and no pass rush. They probably play at Va Tech considering they played them at home this year. I think they play at Mississippi st. which is never an easy place to play, even know they are down.

And most of all teams like this usually can't handle all the hype. Much like in 04 when people were picking them to be top notch, I don't even know if they finished in the top 25.

Too many people are buying into that bowl hype and saying they return their qb and rb, but even by reading thier board for about 30 minutes I still don't know another player on their team, besides a couple incoming recruits.

I say 9-3 season and maybe top 15 ranking.

 

[OSUBuckeye4Life]

Ok so I went and took a look at what they have for next year.

Offense: Yes they have a very nice rushing attack, but where is the passing game. White only had 828 yds. passing, with 8 tds to 5 ints.

This year they snuck up on people being under the radar, and having these freshmen come in. Next year they arent going to do that. Teams will stack the box and make them throw. Also their leading reciever graduated, and the next best had like 200 yds. While it is great to have a very good rb/qb combo, you have to have other things.

Defense: They lose about their whole secondary and from the looks of it they are banking on incoming freshmen to sure up their secondary. Their top two guys are Ryan Brinson and Robert Williams. Both guys we took passes on. Those are also their only two guys that are rated anything higher than 2 stars. I know stars don't mean anything, but all two stars isnt a way of building a NC type team.

Also if you missed the first half of the sugar bowl and just watched the second half you will see that UGA just had their way with that defense. Shockley had all day to throw, and if not for that gutsy call, UGA would of went down and scored at the end. Even the WV fans bash their d-line saying they are too slow.

I can't find their schedule, but I know they play @ Louisville, which will be a very tough game having a young secondary and no pass rush. They probably play at Va Tech considering they played them at home this year. I think they play at Mississippi st. which is never an easy place to play, even know they are down.

And most of all teams like this usually can't handle all the hype. Much like in 04 when people were picking them to be top notch, I don't even know if they finished in the top 25.

Too many people are buying into that bowl hype and saying they return their qb and rb, but even by reading thier board for about 30 minutes I still don't know another player on their team, besides a couple incoming recruits.

I say 9-3 season and maybe top 15 ranking.

If this is in fact the case than why do you mind them being #1? They'll oviously fall under such inadequecies right?

They dont play Va. Tech this year, it was replaced by Marshall.

Last year was supposed to be a "rebuilding" year for WVU and you see what happened.....they are going into this year better, on paper, than they where last year.

True they didn't pass much, but noone could stop the rushing attack. You watched the Sugar Bowl and I'm sure you saw that Pat White connected when he needed to, and should only get better at it as time goes on.

If you watched them during the season you'd know guys like Addae, Lorello, Schmitt, etc.

I have faith in RR until proven otherwise, so again, no #1 by any means, but top 5-7 is reasonable.

 

[crazybuckfan40]

If this is in fact the case than why do you mind them being #1? They'll oviously fall under such inadequecies right?

They dont play Va. Tech this year, it was replaced by Marshall.

Last year was supposed to be a "rebuilding" year for WVU and you see what happened.....they are going into this year better, on paper, than they where last year.

True they didn't pass much, but noone could stop the rushing attack. You watched the Sugar Bowl and I'm sure you saw that Pat White connected when he needed to, and should only get better at it as time goes on.

If you watched them during the season you'd know guys like Addae, Lorello, Schmitt, etc.

I have faith in RR until proven otherwise, so again, no #1 by any means, but top 5-7 is reasonable.

Well what a bunch of pussies take thier rival off thier schedule b/c they want an easy schedule.

Just b/c things look better on paper, that doesnt mean things are going to turn out better.

Also like I said WVU snuck up on people b/c they had a couple of young guys, that teams didnt know how to defend. You think teams in the big east are already preparing for them you are crazy. last year not so much, b/c teams didnt expect much, next year they are going to be the team that they are all putting up on the pedestal. We will see how many times they get knocked down.

I guess we are just going to agree to disagree on this one.

 

[OSUBuckeye4Life]

Well what a bunch of pussies take thier rival off thier schedule b/c they want an easy schedule.

Just b/c things look better on paper, that doesnt mean things are going to turn out better.

Also like I said WVU snuck up on people b/c they had a couple of young guys, that teams didnt know how to defend. You think teams in the big east are already preparing for them you are crazy. last year not so much, b/c teams didnt expect much, next year they are going to be the team that they are all putting up on the pedestal. We will see how many times they get knocked down.

I guess we are just going to agree to disagree on this one.

We agree more than you think.

I agree with you that they aren't a #1 team.

I agree with you that they are going to lose around 2 games this year.

I agree with you that they snuck up on people.

I agree that "on paper" doesn't hold much weight.

I just think they have earned the right to be moved from a top 10 position.

Oh and I think Va. Tech didn't want WVU on the schedule, not the other way around.....I'm not sure though.

 

[sandgk]

I agree that if they are scheduled high because of their schedule that is wrong [hence why I dont think they should be #1] but I think based off of what they have done and who they have coming back [they are rebuilding the secondary] they probably deserve a top 5-8 spot until proven otherwise.

ASIDE - Well you've softened your position since the inception of this thread. You had them first as deserving a #5, then 5-8, ok, now you have them as a top 10 team as I am writing this. If this was the stock exchange OSUBuckeye4Life you'd be buying puts on options for the 'Eers

And Oh8ch's point is also valid, what we have here are two competing philosophies. The question becomes, which one is really the more valid of the two?

Philosophy 1 - Ranked based on likelihood of doing well, regardless of conference strength and OOC opposition.

Philosophy 2 - Ranked on basis of strength and quality of the squad, the quality (not weakness) of the opposition it faces and the likelihood of having a strong winning season.

And, it is fair to note that both approaches should also include an assessment of the returning depth, plus any outside or internal changes that positively and negatively impact a team. Plus, because the computer ratings remain part of the BCS, which incorporate strength of schedule that should be part of your overall projection - notably, it is this factor that is, in my opinion, given the least weight by anyone (like Forde) putting the 'Eers at the top of their rankings.

So with that in mind how do the two divergent approaches treat the different contenders for a top 25 2006 season?

Lets start with some of the commonly applicable factors, and as this thread is prompted by Forde's irrationally exuberant placement of the 'Eers at #1 I will begin with that team. I think the rest I'll have a shot at later - maybe (just sheer laziness on my part, I know).

WVU -
Returning Depth Offense - Eight returning starters. Key losses - WR Myles, LT Garrett, RT Justice (positions at tackles likely filled by red-shirt freshmen Figner & Bassler, WR likely filled by shuffling the receiving corps).
Returning Depth Defense - Six returning starters by my count. Key losses NT Hunter, FS Addae, BS Lorello, BCB McCann, FCB Mims - positions filled by Soph or Frosh for the most part. Best unit returning - LB Corps.
Special Teams - WVa also loses the services of their senior Punter and
Strength of Schedule - Relatively weak, gigs at Louisville and at Pittsburgh look to be their toughest road games, hosted Maryland and South Florida potential upsets in Morgantown. early season upset possible at Miss State - though that's a stretch.

OK - let's look at one key game - at Louisville and consider what that game entails. I am for the sake of argument going to assume that WVa gets through the order till Louisville unscathed.

Louisville has some key losses to graduation Dumervil in particular is a special player that is replaced, likely by Junior Zach Anderson. DT I believe Stanley departs and here the replacement is a Redshirt Freshman. DE Rimpsey is gone, replaced by Soph Cox, I think they lose their Will LB and SS, with sophomores stepping into the breach. (Class designations 2005 year). A huge boost comes from the election by Michael Bush to return for his Senior year, though both OL guards and the Left Tackle may require some shuffling. Brohm's health has to be proven, but if he returns at 100% they still have a good combination of weapons on Offense.

Now how do they look to stack up?

On Defense last year WVa was reasonably stout against the run (rush D was 15th), yet already questionable against the pass (pass D was 34th).
On Offense Louisville had reasonably good rushing numbers (30th rank) and very good through the air (13th rank), overall they got a 9th rank on Offense.
With the returning LB corp they may hope to stifle Louisville's rushing attack with the returning and elusive Bush. Conversely, the almost complete attrition in the 'Eers defensive backfield will likely have Brohm and the receiving corps from Lousiville salivating. (Plus that cannot help bolster confidence for a repeated ability to prevent the run, especially if Louisville rushes Bush round the end). I would say this match-up favors Louisville's offense. Add in the home field advantage the 'Eer D may be looking out of sync much of the day.

On Offense last year WVa had a very good rushing rank (4th in nation), though an anaemic aerial attack - 115th overall.
On Defense last year Lousiville had a reasonable rushing D (20th in the nation), and a moderately effective Pass defense (46th nationally).
The key question to me for this match-up is whether the 'Eers can play ball control on Offense and do so all game. They will almost certainly still lean on a robust running game, though the losses of both O-line tackles to redshirt Freshmen leaves one question mark over their ability to repeat last years exemplary rushing performance. If Louisville gets a lead in this game (and I strongly suspect that they will, being on home turf and having enough returners) then the 'Eers will be forced out of their comfort zone - and into the air. As good as White was on the ground he was clearly still a work in progress in the passing game. True, he did better in the Sugar Bowl with an 11/14 120 yd outing that netted one TD - the best thing about which were the throws early that got between the GA safeties. Once the Bulldogs woke up though WVa reverted to form and the rush once again became favored.

No matter how I try and weigh WVa as a likely winner of this key Big East match-up I still favor Lousiville as coming out on top.

The remainder of the 'Eers schedule will feature only one remaining "tough" game, at Pittsburgh, which by my estimation they will enter with at least one loss on their record. Meanwhile Louisville may lose more OOC games, yet end up winning the Big East. However, consider this "what-if"

Louisville has scheduled Kentucky as its warm-up, which will be played at home. An in-state rivalry, Big East vs SEC - they win this they get props for SOS, especially as an opener, not much granted but it gets better. Two gigs vs Middle TN State and Temple (creme-puffs, easy wins). Lousiville then faces Miami FL at home, should they win out there - then they get serious props.

So by my estimation WVa loses to Louisville, and the Birds may end up winning the Big Least, though possibly with a poorer overall record - still Lousiville snatches the Big Least BCS auto-bid.

Because of the SOS factor WVa was already on shaky ground vis-a-vis the BCS. Losing the Big Least title would deprive them of the auto-bid. Having poor SOS, well that may drop them into a lesser New Year's bowl at best. You know what happens to teams that go where they didn't want to in bowl games? They get dispirited, they often lose. Net result you could easily have WVa as one of lowest rank X-2 teams after the bowl games are done. Perhaps in, perhaps out of the top 10.

Lastly, even if my analysis and estimation is too critical of the 'Eers, consider this.

Say they go X-0 through the regular season. Undefeated. Because of their relatively weak SOS they will not get the Sagarin points to boost them into top 2 status. No BCS championship game for the 'Eers. Outside looking in like Auburn, or Iowa or others in the past. Matched up against a true top 4-5 team most likely in their BCS bowl game look for the 'Eers to have tough sledding. Finishing X-1 and possibly top 5-10.

Which, as I recall is where this started.

Long and short of it Forde is full of shit.

 

[OSUBuckeye4Life]

ASIDE - Well you've softened your position since the inception of this thread. You had them first as deserving a #5, then 5-8, ok, now you have them as a top 10 team as I am writing this. If this was the stock exchange OSUBuckeye4Life you'd be buying puts on options for the 'Eers

LOL.

I'm still for #5...but I personally feel they'll be anywhere from 5-8.

I think teams like Ohio State, Texas, USC, LSU, Notre Dame, *insert 1-2 others* will probably be put above them.

 

[sandgk]

Great OSUBuckeye4Life - so what's your take on the 2 scenarios for a blemished 'Eer season?