As we acclimate ourselves to the new College Football Playoff era, we still have many questions about what the future holds.
Taking some cues from the recent past to predict the future, I took the BCS rankings from the final week of the regular seasons (post-conference championship game week) during the BCS era (1998-2013). I used the top four teams from those rankings to determine who would qualify for the College Football Playoffs in those years. For history’s sake, I used the conference that each of the team was affiliated with at that time, not where they are currently due to expansion.
The results were intriguing.
Q: How likely is it that we see two teams from the same conference in the playoffs?
Wrap your mind around this… according to the recent past, surprisingly likely. In 8 of the last 10 years of the BCS era, you would have seen at least one conference with two teams in the four-team playoff.
In fact, in 2 of those 8 years, only 2 conferences total would have been represented in the playoffs. 2008 would have pinned the the Big 12’s Oklahoma (#1) and Texas (#3) against the SEC’s Florida (#2) and Alabama (#4), and in 2006, the playoffs would have boasted Big Ten blue-bloods Ohio State (#1) and Michigan (#3) against SEC powerhouses Florida (#2) and LSU (#4). The ACC was the only Power 5 conference to not have two teams qualify for the playoffs in a single year during the BCS era.
During the BCS era, we never had three teams from the same conference finish in the top four. However... if you considered what expansion has done to college football, three current Big Ten members would have finished in the top four pre-BCS in 1995… Tommy Frazier and #1 Nebraska, Darnell Autrey and #3 Northwestern, and that year's Heisman Trophy winner Eddie George and #4 Ohio State. What a playoff that one would have been!
Q: What Power 5 conferences are most likely to be represented in the College Football Playoffs?
During the BCS era, the SEC would have had at least one representative in 13 of the 16 years (81%), including each of the last 8 years… or since Urban’s 2006 Gator team took a chomp out of our beloved Buckeyes. Expect the SEC’s run of having at least one team finish in the top four of the regular season rankings to continue, despite the south's fear of being left out this year.
The Big 12 would have had representation in 11 of the 16 years (69%) for the conference second most likely to be in the playoffs. However, the Big 12 hasn’t had a team that would have qualified for the playoffs since 2011, indicating that recent conference expansion, the downturn of blue-blood programs Texas and Oklahoma, and subsequent removal of a conference championship game has certainly hindered their chances.
Q: What Power 5 conferences are least likely to be represented in the College Football Playoffs?
Having a representative in only 5 years (31%) of the BCS era, the ACC is the least likely to have a team in the playoffs. The addition of 5-time national champion Miami (FL) has been not as fruitful for the conference as expected, as the Hurricanes haven’t finished above #8 in the final regular season BCS standings since they joined the conference in 2004. The agreement the ACC signed with Notre Dame also looks like it could hinder the conference if the Domers start going unbeaten in head-to-head match-ups against the ACC, stealing the conference's thunder and their potential spot in the College Football Playoffs.
Having representatives in two more years than the ACC during that time period is the Big Ten (44%). With the recent influx of head coaching talent to the conference (Meyer, Dantonio, Harbaugh, Franklin) and the addition of a conference championship game to help their strength of schedule, the Big Ten’s chances certainly seem to be trending upwardly for the future after a long run of futility.
Q: Would Notre Dame have forced its way into the playoffs more often than they should have due to their “brand recognition”?
Actually, they only would have qualified once during the entire BCS era… in 2012 (#1) with Manti Te’o and his fake dead girlfriend. The only other time they would have had an argument would have been in 2005 with Brady Quinn at the helm and Charlie Weis giving them a "competitive advantage". In hindsight for Domer fans, that team ended up getting waxed by our Buckeyes as a tune-up for what would be a national championship run (and Heisman run for Troy) the following year.
Q: What teams were most likely to be “In” the playoffs during the BCS years?
To no one's surprise, the usual suspects would have been Alabama (6), Ohio State (5), Oklahoma (5), USC (4), Texas (4), and Florida State (4). Because I know you are interested, Ohio State would have been “In” in 1998 (#4), 2002 (#2), 2005 (#4), 2006 (#1), 2007 (#1). The Buckeyes would have made it 6 in the undefeated 2012 season if not for being ineligible for the BCS that year due to the outcome of an NCAA investigation. In 1998, the playoffs certainly would have given the Bucks a second shot at earning the national title after having lost to Nick Saban’s Spartans late in the season.
(For shits and giggles, Ohio State would have also been “In” in 1995 & 1996 as well, both at the #4 spot.)
The most impressive run/potential dynasty would have been Alabama qualifying for the playoffs in 5 out of 6 years between 2008 and 2013 (plus qualifying for the CFP in 2014). The only year they wouldn’t have been “In” during that stretch was in 2010, where they finished outside of the top 10 and rival Auburn won the national championship with Cam Newton.
Also, for the record, 27 different universities would have made the playoffs during the BCS era, with the Big 12 & SEC each boasting 6 unique schools during that time.
Q: Would a team from a non-Power 5 conference have made the College Football Playoffs during the BCS era?
Yes, but it might not be the team that first came to your mind. Despite their grumblings during this past year’s chase, the "Little Sisters of the Poor" themselves, TCU, would have qualified for the playoffs in back-to-back years for the Mountain West in 2009 (#4) and 2010 (#3). Fellow mid-majors Boise State (WAC) finished the regular season as high as #6 in 2009 and Utah (MWC) finished #6 in both 2004 (with Urban Meyer) and 2008.
TCU’s two Playoff appearances during the BCS era would have been as many as football blue-bloods M*ch*g*n (2003, 2006), Virginia Tech (1999, 2007), and Nebraska (1999, 2001) had during the same time period... and 1 more appearance than each of Notre Dame (2012), Georgia (2002), Tennessee (1998), & Penn State (2005).
Q: Other than TCU’s 2-year run, would the Playoffs have been a “blue-blood only” club during the BCS era?
Despite recent national perception being swayed by the incessant whining of Big 12 coaches, the playoffs wouldn’t have been run only by blue-blood programs.
Upstart fellow Big 12 member Oklahoma State (#3) would have made a deep run at a national title in 2011 despite being upset by Offensive Coordinator Tom Herman’s Iowa State Cyclones, later proving their mettle by winning a nail biter against then #4 Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl.
Another Big 12 member Kansas State (#3) would have made an appearance in the playoffs during the initial year of the BCS in 1998.
In 2001, the year that really started the calls for a switch to a playoff model, would have seen #3 Colorado and Joey Harrington’s #4 Oregon team (pre-Chip Kelly’s offense) in the running for a national title.
Michigan State shed its “Sparty” nature to defeat Ohio State in the B1G championship game in 2013 to finish the regular season #4 in the BCS standings.
And finally, the #3 Cincinnati Bearcats finished the 2009 season undefeated before being taken to the woodshed by Meyer and Tebow’s Florida Gators in the 2010 Sugar Bowl. No more complaints, Bears and Horned Frogs. You get there by merit, not by what's on the front of your jersey.
Q: How has the downfall and eventual demise of the Big East affected college football?
This might be surprising, but the Big East was a huge factor in the BCS in its early years, having a team play in 3 of the first 5 BCS Championship games and would have had a team in 4 of the first 5 playoffs: 1999 Virginia Tech (#2), 2000 Miami (#3), 2001 Miami (#1), and 2002 Miami (#1).
After Miami and Virginia Tech left for the ACC in 2004 and Boston College followed suit the next year, the conference was never the same and did not command the respect it once had. Only once after that 2004 expansion season would a Big East team had made the playoffs... the above mentioned 2009 Cincinnati Bearcats. Neither Virginia Tech or Miami have fared quite as well since entering the ACC, though Virginia Tech would have made the playoffs in 2007 (#3) in their new conference.
Q: Would teams and conferences have grumbled about not making the top 4 the same way they grumbled about not making the top 2 during the BCS era?
It’s inevitable. Even if they expanded it to 8, there would still be teams at #9 and #10 telling the world that they got the short end of the stick.
However, I think there wouldn’t have been as much grumbling and politicking as you might think there might have been. In an astounding 11 of the 16 years BCS era, the ACC didn’t have a current member at that time finish in the top 6 (!) of the final regular season BCS standings, let alone the top 4. The Big Ten had 8 such years during that span where they didn’t have a team finish in the top 6, as did each of the other Power 5 conferences at least twice... even the mighty SEC (2000, 2005).
Q: Now, since you brought it up, what would the playoffs have looked like during the BCS era if we had an 8-TEAM playoff??
Well… that would be a question for another time...
Taking some cues from the recent past to predict the future, I took the BCS rankings from the final week of the regular seasons (post-conference championship game week) during the BCS era (1998-2013). I used the top four teams from those rankings to determine who would qualify for the College Football Playoffs in those years. For history’s sake, I used the conference that each of the team was affiliated with at that time, not where they are currently due to expansion.
The results were intriguing.
Q: How likely is it that we see two teams from the same conference in the playoffs?
Wrap your mind around this… according to the recent past, surprisingly likely. In 8 of the last 10 years of the BCS era, you would have seen at least one conference with two teams in the four-team playoff.
In fact, in 2 of those 8 years, only 2 conferences total would have been represented in the playoffs. 2008 would have pinned the the Big 12’s Oklahoma (#1) and Texas (#3) against the SEC’s Florida (#2) and Alabama (#4), and in 2006, the playoffs would have boasted Big Ten blue-bloods Ohio State (#1) and Michigan (#3) against SEC powerhouses Florida (#2) and LSU (#4). The ACC was the only Power 5 conference to not have two teams qualify for the playoffs in a single year during the BCS era.
During the BCS era, we never had three teams from the same conference finish in the top four. However... if you considered what expansion has done to college football, three current Big Ten members would have finished in the top four pre-BCS in 1995… Tommy Frazier and #1 Nebraska, Darnell Autrey and #3 Northwestern, and that year's Heisman Trophy winner Eddie George and #4 Ohio State. What a playoff that one would have been!
Q: What Power 5 conferences are most likely to be represented in the College Football Playoffs?
During the BCS era, the SEC would have had at least one representative in 13 of the 16 years (81%), including each of the last 8 years… or since Urban’s 2006 Gator team took a chomp out of our beloved Buckeyes. Expect the SEC’s run of having at least one team finish in the top four of the regular season rankings to continue, despite the south's fear of being left out this year.
The Big 12 would have had representation in 11 of the 16 years (69%) for the conference second most likely to be in the playoffs. However, the Big 12 hasn’t had a team that would have qualified for the playoffs since 2011, indicating that recent conference expansion, the downturn of blue-blood programs Texas and Oklahoma, and subsequent removal of a conference championship game has certainly hindered their chances.
Q: What Power 5 conferences are least likely to be represented in the College Football Playoffs?
Having a representative in only 5 years (31%) of the BCS era, the ACC is the least likely to have a team in the playoffs. The addition of 5-time national champion Miami (FL) has been not as fruitful for the conference as expected, as the Hurricanes haven’t finished above #8 in the final regular season BCS standings since they joined the conference in 2004. The agreement the ACC signed with Notre Dame also looks like it could hinder the conference if the Domers start going unbeaten in head-to-head match-ups against the ACC, stealing the conference's thunder and their potential spot in the College Football Playoffs.
Having representatives in two more years than the ACC during that time period is the Big Ten (44%). With the recent influx of head coaching talent to the conference (Meyer, Dantonio, Harbaugh, Franklin) and the addition of a conference championship game to help their strength of schedule, the Big Ten’s chances certainly seem to be trending upwardly for the future after a long run of futility.
Q: Would Notre Dame have forced its way into the playoffs more often than they should have due to their “brand recognition”?
Actually, they only would have qualified once during the entire BCS era… in 2012 (#1) with Manti Te’o and his fake dead girlfriend. The only other time they would have had an argument would have been in 2005 with Brady Quinn at the helm and Charlie Weis giving them a "competitive advantage". In hindsight for Domer fans, that team ended up getting waxed by our Buckeyes as a tune-up for what would be a national championship run (and Heisman run for Troy) the following year.
Q: What teams were most likely to be “In” the playoffs during the BCS years?
To no one's surprise, the usual suspects would have been Alabama (6), Ohio State (5), Oklahoma (5), USC (4), Texas (4), and Florida State (4). Because I know you are interested, Ohio State would have been “In” in 1998 (#4), 2002 (#2), 2005 (#4), 2006 (#1), 2007 (#1). The Buckeyes would have made it 6 in the undefeated 2012 season if not for being ineligible for the BCS that year due to the outcome of an NCAA investigation. In 1998, the playoffs certainly would have given the Bucks a second shot at earning the national title after having lost to Nick Saban’s Spartans late in the season.
(For shits and giggles, Ohio State would have also been “In” in 1995 & 1996 as well, both at the #4 spot.)
The most impressive run/potential dynasty would have been Alabama qualifying for the playoffs in 5 out of 6 years between 2008 and 2013 (plus qualifying for the CFP in 2014). The only year they wouldn’t have been “In” during that stretch was in 2010, where they finished outside of the top 10 and rival Auburn won the national championship with Cam Newton.
Also, for the record, 27 different universities would have made the playoffs during the BCS era, with the Big 12 & SEC each boasting 6 unique schools during that time.
Q: Would a team from a non-Power 5 conference have made the College Football Playoffs during the BCS era?
Yes, but it might not be the team that first came to your mind. Despite their grumblings during this past year’s chase, the "Little Sisters of the Poor" themselves, TCU, would have qualified for the playoffs in back-to-back years for the Mountain West in 2009 (#4) and 2010 (#3). Fellow mid-majors Boise State (WAC) finished the regular season as high as #6 in 2009 and Utah (MWC) finished #6 in both 2004 (with Urban Meyer) and 2008.
TCU’s two Playoff appearances during the BCS era would have been as many as football blue-bloods M*ch*g*n (2003, 2006), Virginia Tech (1999, 2007), and Nebraska (1999, 2001) had during the same time period... and 1 more appearance than each of Notre Dame (2012), Georgia (2002), Tennessee (1998), & Penn State (2005).
Q: Other than TCU’s 2-year run, would the Playoffs have been a “blue-blood only” club during the BCS era?
Despite recent national perception being swayed by the incessant whining of Big 12 coaches, the playoffs wouldn’t have been run only by blue-blood programs.
Upstart fellow Big 12 member Oklahoma State (#3) would have made a deep run at a national title in 2011 despite being upset by Offensive Coordinator Tom Herman’s Iowa State Cyclones, later proving their mettle by winning a nail biter against then #4 Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl.
Another Big 12 member Kansas State (#3) would have made an appearance in the playoffs during the initial year of the BCS in 1998.
In 2001, the year that really started the calls for a switch to a playoff model, would have seen #3 Colorado and Joey Harrington’s #4 Oregon team (pre-Chip Kelly’s offense) in the running for a national title.
Michigan State shed its “Sparty” nature to defeat Ohio State in the B1G championship game in 2013 to finish the regular season #4 in the BCS standings.
And finally, the #3 Cincinnati Bearcats finished the 2009 season undefeated before being taken to the woodshed by Meyer and Tebow’s Florida Gators in the 2010 Sugar Bowl. No more complaints, Bears and Horned Frogs. You get there by merit, not by what's on the front of your jersey.
Q: How has the downfall and eventual demise of the Big East affected college football?
This might be surprising, but the Big East was a huge factor in the BCS in its early years, having a team play in 3 of the first 5 BCS Championship games and would have had a team in 4 of the first 5 playoffs: 1999 Virginia Tech (#2), 2000 Miami (#3), 2001 Miami (#1), and 2002 Miami (#1).
After Miami and Virginia Tech left for the ACC in 2004 and Boston College followed suit the next year, the conference was never the same and did not command the respect it once had. Only once after that 2004 expansion season would a Big East team had made the playoffs... the above mentioned 2009 Cincinnati Bearcats. Neither Virginia Tech or Miami have fared quite as well since entering the ACC, though Virginia Tech would have made the playoffs in 2007 (#3) in their new conference.
Q: Would teams and conferences have grumbled about not making the top 4 the same way they grumbled about not making the top 2 during the BCS era?
It’s inevitable. Even if they expanded it to 8, there would still be teams at #9 and #10 telling the world that they got the short end of the stick.
However, I think there wouldn’t have been as much grumbling and politicking as you might think there might have been. In an astounding 11 of the 16 years BCS era, the ACC didn’t have a current member at that time finish in the top 6 (!) of the final regular season BCS standings, let alone the top 4. The Big Ten had 8 such years during that span where they didn’t have a team finish in the top 6, as did each of the other Power 5 conferences at least twice... even the mighty SEC (2000, 2005).
Q: Now, since you brought it up, what would the playoffs have looked like during the BCS era if we had an 8-TEAM playoff??
Well… that would be a question for another time...
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