Big Wins!
As I mentioned yesterday when evaluating "big name" coaches and their losses, there is "win-side" data which should also be taken in to consideration when contemplating the replacement of Jim Tressel as head coach at Ohio State which some frustrated fans have been calling for. But, not just any win. The problem these fans have with Tressel, again, is failure to win the "big game" and not a failure to win against teams the Buckeyes should beat. That is to say, as demonstrated in yesterday's analysis, the Buckeyes defeat those teams they should beat nearly 100% of the time - the losses to Illinois 2007 and probably 2004 Northwestern being the only occasions it has occurred since 2002. True, Ohio State fans feel like the Buckeyes should never lose, but in fairness to reality, sometimes the Buckeyes aren't the better team on the field on some particular Saturdays, or are at least pretty close to the talent on the other team, ie Texas 2005.
In any case, the following evaluates the "big game" records of three coaches; Coach Tressel, Coach Carroll, and Coach Meyer. Other Championship winning coaches from yesterday's posts have not been considered for several reasons, some owing to my time to research the issue and some owing to the relevance of doing so, since the hire of Les Miles or Mack Brown, for example, seems remote at best.
The "loss side" data can be found Here. As you will read, "Win" is a lot easier for this author to spell than was the word "lose."
What is a "Big Game?"
A "big game" for purposes of this analysis are any game which was played against a team which was in the top 10 of the AP ranking the week played, or is a rivalry game regardless of the rival's record or rank at the time. The Data set of games was from the beginning of 2002 - September 12, 2009. In choosing the "big game" line, there are some games which, while quite big, did not make the cut, for example Ohio State v. Penn State 2005 (Penn State was rated 16 at the time). There are other games which ended up being listed, despite the fact that it was hardly considered a "must see" game even when played - for example - Florida v. Kentucky 2007. But, a line had to be drawn, and I drew it at "top 10."
To be sure, there are other ways to consider what is a big game. For example, when Utah played Texas A&M in 2003 and 2004, it's quite probable that Utes fans considered the games "biggies." None-the-less, those games were not considered here. For what it's worth, Utah split the series with TAMU 1-1 in those seasons. I discarded these games not because there is "less value" in Utah playing against, say California (2003 - a Utah win, 31-24), but because we're considering a replacement coach at Ohio State, not a "mid major" program. In other words, beating Cal is nice when you're at Utah and doing so helps you get recognition as an "up and coming" coach. But, it's not quite as big as #1 Ohio State facing #2 Texas, or #2 USC v. #1 Oklahoma. Part of coaching is dealing with pre-game hype. Cal - Utah didn't have it. Florida - LSU did. Regardless, this is the decision I made in defining the line and have now so disclosed.
Likewise, I had to pick rivals for the coaches considered. For Ohio State it was easy, the rival is Michigan and there is no other. Period.
For USC, there was a decision to make as between UCLA and Notre Dame. I settled on UCLA being the "bigger" rival because UCLA and USC both compete in the same conference (PAC 10), despite the fact that the Notre Dame - USC rivalry, first played in 1926, is 3 years older than USC - UCLA (1929). Of course, choosing between UCLA and ND teams is something of a grab bag anyway as each has fielded some pretty bad teams in recent memory. USC has been significantly better than both for the bulk of the data set considered and while different, I doubt calling ND the chief rival instead of UCLA would result in particularly different information.
Finally, Florida has several games which might be considered "rivalry games" including games against out of conference foe, Florida State, and in conference foes, Georgia and Tennessee. As with USC, the in conference game(s) were considered "more important" than out of conference contests for rivalry purposes. Beyond that, Georgia - Florida was chosen owing to it having the longer history, albeit just 1 year. "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" was first played in 1915, while "The Third Saturday in September" began in 1916. Though not considered, it also weighs in Georgia's favor that the Bulldogs tended to be the more significant foe for Florida than did the Vols in the data set.
Urban Meyer has coached at three schools in the data set, Florida, Utah and Bowling Green State University. In choosing rivals for Utah, I settled on Utah - BYU instead of Utah - Utah State because BYU and Utah are in the same conference (MWC), even though the Utah - Utah State rivalry (The Battle of the Brothers) spans back to 1892, while the Deseret First Duel began in 1922. For what it's worth, Utah State was 3-9 in 2003 and 3-8 in 2004 when Meyer faced them. Bowling Green's rival was also easy to determine, and is Toledo.
That being said, let's have a look at some numbers.
As I mentioned yesterday when evaluating "big name" coaches and their losses, there is "win-side" data which should also be taken in to consideration when contemplating the replacement of Jim Tressel as head coach at Ohio State which some frustrated fans have been calling for. But, not just any win. The problem these fans have with Tressel, again, is failure to win the "big game" and not a failure to win against teams the Buckeyes should beat. That is to say, as demonstrated in yesterday's analysis, the Buckeyes defeat those teams they should beat nearly 100% of the time - the losses to Illinois 2007 and probably 2004 Northwestern being the only occasions it has occurred since 2002. True, Ohio State fans feel like the Buckeyes should never lose, but in fairness to reality, sometimes the Buckeyes aren't the better team on the field on some particular Saturdays, or are at least pretty close to the talent on the other team, ie Texas 2005.
In any case, the following evaluates the "big game" records of three coaches; Coach Tressel, Coach Carroll, and Coach Meyer. Other Championship winning coaches from yesterday's posts have not been considered for several reasons, some owing to my time to research the issue and some owing to the relevance of doing so, since the hire of Les Miles or Mack Brown, for example, seems remote at best.
The "loss side" data can be found Here. As you will read, "Win" is a lot easier for this author to spell than was the word "lose."
What is a "Big Game?"
A "big game" for purposes of this analysis are any game which was played against a team which was in the top 10 of the AP ranking the week played, or is a rivalry game regardless of the rival's record or rank at the time. The Data set of games was from the beginning of 2002 - September 12, 2009. In choosing the "big game" line, there are some games which, while quite big, did not make the cut, for example Ohio State v. Penn State 2005 (Penn State was rated 16 at the time). There are other games which ended up being listed, despite the fact that it was hardly considered a "must see" game even when played - for example - Florida v. Kentucky 2007. But, a line had to be drawn, and I drew it at "top 10."
To be sure, there are other ways to consider what is a big game. For example, when Utah played Texas A&M in 2003 and 2004, it's quite probable that Utes fans considered the games "biggies." None-the-less, those games were not considered here. For what it's worth, Utah split the series with TAMU 1-1 in those seasons. I discarded these games not because there is "less value" in Utah playing against, say California (2003 - a Utah win, 31-24), but because we're considering a replacement coach at Ohio State, not a "mid major" program. In other words, beating Cal is nice when you're at Utah and doing so helps you get recognition as an "up and coming" coach. But, it's not quite as big as #1 Ohio State facing #2 Texas, or #2 USC v. #1 Oklahoma. Part of coaching is dealing with pre-game hype. Cal - Utah didn't have it. Florida - LSU did. Regardless, this is the decision I made in defining the line and have now so disclosed.
Likewise, I had to pick rivals for the coaches considered. For Ohio State it was easy, the rival is Michigan and there is no other. Period.
For USC, there was a decision to make as between UCLA and Notre Dame. I settled on UCLA being the "bigger" rival because UCLA and USC both compete in the same conference (PAC 10), despite the fact that the Notre Dame - USC rivalry, first played in 1926, is 3 years older than USC - UCLA (1929). Of course, choosing between UCLA and ND teams is something of a grab bag anyway as each has fielded some pretty bad teams in recent memory. USC has been significantly better than both for the bulk of the data set considered and while different, I doubt calling ND the chief rival instead of UCLA would result in particularly different information.
Finally, Florida has several games which might be considered "rivalry games" including games against out of conference foe, Florida State, and in conference foes, Georgia and Tennessee. As with USC, the in conference game(s) were considered "more important" than out of conference contests for rivalry purposes. Beyond that, Georgia - Florida was chosen owing to it having the longer history, albeit just 1 year. "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" was first played in 1915, while "The Third Saturday in September" began in 1916. Though not considered, it also weighs in Georgia's favor that the Bulldogs tended to be the more significant foe for Florida than did the Vols in the data set.
Urban Meyer has coached at three schools in the data set, Florida, Utah and Bowling Green State University. In choosing rivals for Utah, I settled on Utah - BYU instead of Utah - Utah State because BYU and Utah are in the same conference (MWC), even though the Utah - Utah State rivalry (The Battle of the Brothers) spans back to 1892, while the Deseret First Duel began in 1922. For what it's worth, Utah State was 3-9 in 2003 and 3-8 in 2004 when Meyer faced them. Bowling Green's rival was also easy to determine, and is Toledo.
That being said, let's have a look at some numbers.
