2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

[osugrad21]

Dispatch

USC controls its destiny despite slip in standings
Monday, October 23, 2006
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Michigan slipped in front of Southern California into second place in the Bowl Championship Series standings yesterday, but there?s no reason for the Trojans to worry.
USC is still a solid No. 3 behind first-place Ohio State and Michigan. And with the Buckeyes and Wolverines slated to meet Nov. 18 in Ohio Stadium, the Trojans remained in good shape to secure a spot in the BCS championship game with an undefeated regular season.
The Buckeyes, who have been No. 1 in the polls all season by a wide margin, have a BCS average of .9764 out of a possible 1.000. The Wolverines? .9451 gives them a slight edge over the Trojans (.9430).
What?s more important for the Trojans is their wide margin over fourth-place West Virginia. The unbeaten Mountaineers moved up a spot, switching places with Auburn, but their .7551 average leaves them with loads of ground to make up on the top three.
Ohio State, USC and Michigan are in control of the national championship race. If two of those teams finish the regular season unbeaten, it probably won?t matter what goes on with the teams behind them.
USC and Michigan are tied for the top spot in the computer ratings, with Ohio State third. The Trojans are second in the coaches? poll and Michigan is a close third. In the Harris poll, the positions are reversed.

 

[osugrad21]

ESPN

The Power 16

The Power 16 seems very similar to last week, but it could have been much different. Texas, Tennessee, Cal and Notre Dame all survived upset bids to stay in the rankings. Ohio State and Michigan continue to occupy the top two spots this week, followed by USC, West Virginia and Texas.

While Georgia Tech and Oregon fell out of the rankings, Rutgers and Wisconsin climbed into the Power 16.

1Ohio State (16)8-0256How much fun is it to watch Ted Ginn? The Buckeye caught one TD pass and threw another against Indiana.

2Michigan8-0235How much fun is it to watch the Wolverine defense? The Maize and Blue held Iowa to 41 yards rushing

.

3USC6-0222How much fun is it to watch the other Pac-10 teams when the Trojans have a bye?

4West Virginia7-0218How much fun is it to watch the Mountaineer offense? If Steve Slaton doesn't get you, Pat White will

.

5Texas7-1187How much fun is it to watch Colt McCoy's development? The redshirt freshman rallied the Horns in Lincoln

.

6Auburn7-1158How much fun is it to watch War Eagle VI soar onto the field at Jordan Hare Stadium? Listening to Tommy Tuberville talk about a playoff is pretty good, too

.

7Florida6-1145How much fun is it to watch Tim Tebow get excited after bulling for a first down? Think Saturday's Cocktail Party might have him extra juiced?

8Louisville7-0137How much fun will it be to watch the undefeated Cardinals play host the undefeated Mountaineers on Nov. 2?

9Tennessee6-1125How much fun is it to watch a rejuvenated Erik Ainge lead the rejuvenated Vols

?

10Clemson7-1124How much fun is it to watch James Davis and C.J. Spiller run over and around opposing defenders?

11Arkansas6-192How much fun is it to watch Felix Jones return kickoffs for the Razorbacks?

12California7-188How much fun is it to watch Marshawn Lynch drive around the field on a stadium cart after a win?

13Notre Dame6-182How much fun is it to watch Brady Quinn connect with Jeff Samardzija on a last-minute pass to give the Irish a win?

14Rutgers7-030How much fun is it to watch the Scarlet Knights play meaningful games in October?

14LSU6-230How much fun is it for the Tigers when they play in Death Valley?

16Wisconsin7-129How much fun is it to watch P.J. Hill run for the Badgers?


Others receiving votes: Boston College 18, Boise State 7 and Nebraska 3.

 

[osugrad21]

ESPN (Table would not format)

Gazing into the crystal ball to see ...

ESPN.com
First of all, before you get the e-mails ready, please remember these are just projections and a lot can -- and will -- happen between now and the bowl season. That said, Ivan Maisel and Mark Schlabach took their best shot at predicting all 32 bowls. That's no simple task considering different conference tie-ins and the fact some conference(s) undoubtedly will fall short of reaching its requirements.
So, enjoy the projections and know that everything you see here might change by the end of Saturday.

 

[sandgk]

Just looking at Schlabach's picks for the Big Ten, post Wisconsin, I'd have to say he drew up that list before Saturday's games.
Maisel has Penn State as the #4 Bowl entrant from the Big Ten. Schlabach's #4, Iowa.
As things stand now Iowa (2-3 in Big 10 play) has to face NIU, Northwestern and Wisconsin at home, and goes away to face Minnesota.
Penn State (3-2 in Big 10 play) has two away at Purdue and Wisconsin and Purdue, finishing the season with Temple and the Spartans at home.
The last two games Penn State should win, and win easily. It is entirely reasonable to say they will split the away games, making them 3-1 in the final four and 5-3 in Big 10 play.
For Iowa, absent the news about Tate I would have said they had a shot at pulling in 3 out of those last 4 games, one of which was out of Conference vs NIU. (Sole loss being to Wisconsin). This still would leave them at 4-3 in Big 10 play. That 4-3 Big 10 record might still be achieved as Northwestern and Minnesota are debatable quality opposition, but their overall record could end up 2-2 in the stretch for a season record of 7-5.
Regardless, it does not seem likely that Iowa pulls ahead of Penn State in the Big 10 for that next BCS spot, unless the Lions fall flat on their face in their games (outside of Wisconsin).

 

[osugrad21]

SI

Death Valley days

How well do you know Clemson? Here's a Tiger quiz

Posted: Tuesday October 24, 2006 11:14AM; Updated: Tuesday October 24, 2006 2:03P


In a week of very little poll movement, the big riser was Clemson, which was so impressive in its 31-7 win over Georgia Tech that I had no choice but to move it into the Top 10. Seeing as the Tigers haven't been this nationally relevant in about, oh, 25 years, it occurred to me that perhaps many of my younger readers aren't that familiar with Clemson. So, I've prepared this little "How Well Do You Know Clemson?" quiz.
1. Which is the proper pronunciation of "Clemson?"
A) Clem-sun. B) Clemz-un. C) Climpson. D) (Unintelligible)
2. Which Bowden son coaches the Tigers?
A) Tommy. B) Terry. C) Jeff. D) Francisco.
3. Before running onto the field, each Clemson player:
A) Touches Howard's Rock. B) Sings the fight song. C) Touches tailback James Davis, hoping his speed will rub off on them. D) Reminds kicker Jad Dean they still love him.
4. Clemson's last ACC title came in:
A) 1991. B) 1997. C) 2001. D) Seems like 1872.
5. What Clemson did to Georgia Tech the other night would best be described as:
A) A ruthless butt-kicking. B) A shellacking. C) A nationally televised massacre. D) One of the most impressive performances this season.
NCAA Football Power Rankings Rank LW
Team 1 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
At this point, the Buckeyes are just trying to find new ways to amuse themselves. Saturday's 44-3 drubbing of Indiana included a 38-yard touchdown pass by receiver Ted Ginn Jr., receptions by eight players and a touchdown catch by lumbering third-string tight end Jake Ballard.
Next game: Saturday vs. Minnesota.

2 2 Michigan Wolverines (8-0)
Utter shock swept through Michigan Stadium with about eight minutes left in Saturday's win over Iowa: Mike Hart had fumbled. Order was soon restored after replay officials determined Hart's knee had been down, thus extending his streak of consecutive carries without a fumble to 637.
Next game: Saturday vs. Northwestern.

3 3 West Virginia Mountaineers (7-0)
And the countdown begins. Following last Friday's 37-11 win at Connecticut, the Mountaineers have 13 days to prepare for the game their fans have only been talking about for, oh, 10 months. I haven't studied Louisville's defense in depth ... but I wonder if Rich Rodriguez will try to run the ball.
Next game: Nov. 2 at Louisville.

4 4 Florida Gators (6-1)
Get ready for a whole lot of Tim Tebow in Saturday's Georgia game. Florida coach Urban Meyer said of the freshman QB last week, "We probably didn't play him enough" in the Gators' loss to Auburn (Tebow saw just four snaps). You don't think he added some stuff during the bye week?
Next game: Saturday vs. Georgia.

5 5 Texas Longhorns (7-1)
Texas needs to be on high letdown alert this week. Following an emotional win at Nebraska, the 'Horns visit pass-happy Texas Tech, and it's no secret UT's secondary is susceptible to the pass. Baylor, which runs Mike Leach's same exact offense, threw for 300-plus on them two weeks ago.
Next game: Saturday at Texas Tech.

6 6 USC Trojans (6-0)
It's not just that the Trojans have fallen off a little -- their conference is a also lot deeper than years past. Last weekend saw Washington State knock off Oregon, Washington take Cal to overtime (USC struggled to beat the Washington schools) and UCLA nearly upset Notre Dame in South Bend.
Next game: Saturday at Oregon State.

7 7 Tennessee Volunteers (6-1)
Heisman candidate Erik Ainge finally cooled off, throwing three first-half interceptions against Alabama, but he rebounded to throw for 302 yards and lead a game-winning TD drive. Bad news for the Vols: RB LaMarcus Coker is expected to miss the next three weeks with a knee injury.
Next game: Saturday at South Carolina.

8 8 Auburn Tigers (7-1)
It took until the past couple weeks for QB Brandon Cox to fully heal from injuries sustained in the Sept. 16 LSU game that hampered his throwing motion. He looked better in the Florida game, and last week against Tulane he was an impressive 16-of-19 for 212 yards and three touchdowns.
Next game: Saturday at Ole Miss.

9 13 Clemson Tigers (7-1)
I love watching James Davis and C.J. Spiller, but I have one complaint: Why so intent on imitating USC? They dubbed themselves "Thunder and Lightning" in honor of LenDale White and Reggie Bush, and Davis does the eye-black area code (404) like Bush. C'mon guys, let's brainstorm here.
Next game: Thursday at Virginia Tech.

10 12 Arkansas Razorbacks (6-1)
You know the Razorbacks are cruising when QB Casey Dick -- you remember Casey Dick -- has gotten to throw garbage-time touchdowns each of the past two weeks. Meanwhile, RBs Darren McFadden had a 70-yard touchdown and Felix Jones a 100-yard kick return against Ole Miss.
Next game: Saturday vs. Louisiana-Monroe. NCAA Football Power Rankings Rank LW
Team

11 9 Cal Golden Bears (7-1)
The Bears looked like Ohio State West after that Oregon rout, but they've come back to earth a little the past two weeks. RB Marshawn Lynch was sensational against Washington (203 total yards), but you can't let Washington's backup quarterback take you to overtime at home.
Next game: Nov. 4 vs. UCLA.

12 10 Louisville Cardinals (7-0)
Another week, another perplexing performance by the Cardinals, which put up 426 yards against Syracuse yet led by just one score (21-13) in the final minutes. One problem: Louisville's usual deep threat, WR Mario Urrutia, hasn't caught a pass longer than 15 yards the past two games.
Next game: Nov. 2 vs. West Virginia.

13 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1)
"Good teams win games like that," Charlie Weis said of the UCLA victory. No argument here. Great teams, however, don't require miracle rallies to beat the Bruins or Michigan State, don't get outgained by Purdue, don't lead Stanford 14-3 at halftime and don't lose to 47-21 to anyone.
Next game: Saturday vs. Navy.

14 14 LSU Tigers (6-2)
After watching him post yet another gaudy stat line against Fresno State, I decided, just for kicks, to figure out what JaMarcus Russell's pass efficiency rating would be taking away the Auburn and Florida games. The answer: 217.0. The Division I-A season record: 183.3 (Shaun King, 1998).
Next game: Nov. 4 at Tennessee.

15 18 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-0)
With Adrian Peterson sacked and Garrett Wolfe reeling (45 yards against Temple??), Ray Rice may soon sit atop the nation's rushing leaders. He moved into second following his most impressive performance to date, a 39-carry, 225-yard masterpiece in Rutgers' 20-10 win at Pittsburgh.
Next game: Sunday vs. Connecticut.


16 19 Boston College Golden Eagles (6-1)
Boston College has never played in a New Year's Day bowl under coach Tom O'Brien. That may be about to change. First of all, for all the hoopla surrounding Clemson, the Eagles still hold the tie-breaker in the ACC Atlantic division, but even if they slip up, they've got to be a Gator Bowl favorite.
Next game: Saturday vs. Buffalo.

17 17 Oklahoma Sooners (5-2)
Well, we learned one thing about Oklahoma's new starting running back, Allen Patrick, in Saturday's 24-3 win over Colorado: He's certainly durable. Playing in arduous conditions (30 mph winds), the Sooners handed him the ball 35 times, with Patrick gaining a modest 110 yards.
Next game: Saturday at Missouri.


18 20 Boise State Broncos (8-0)
"He's big time," declared Idaho coach Dennis Erickson after facing Boise State RB Ian Johnson (27 carries, 183 yards, four TDs) last weekend. "... You can't tackle the guy. You better have three or four guys there to tackle the guy because he's got such great vision and such great feet."
Next game: Nov. 1 vs. Fresno State.

19 21 Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-2)
I don't normally endorse moving a team up for "coming close," but after watching their last-minute 22-20 loss to Texas last weekend, I realized I didn't have the Huskers rated high enough before. Bill Callahan's team finally has some legitimate playmakers to complement steady QB Zac Taylor.
Next game: Saturday at Oklahoma State.

20 15 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-2)
Can you imagine what Calvin Johnson's numbers would be if he didn't play in a run-first offense and with the nation's 65th-rated passer? Reggie Ball failed to connect even once with the receiver on Saturday night, prompting ESPN analyst Todd Blackledge to yell during one replay, "GET HIM THE BALL."
Next game: Saturday vs. Miami.

 

[osugrad21]

Link

[FONT=Verdana, Helvetica, Arial]BCS folks must be sweating[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Helvetica, Arial]Wednesday, Oct 25, 2006[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Helvetica, Arial]By Harry King

LITTLE ROCK - Unbiased in public, the BCS honchos probably meet privately in a room of cardinal and gold.

The people in charge of the national championship game desperately need USC to finish the regular season unbeaten. Otherwise, they are in for another salvo of criticism.

Whether the West Virginia-Louisville winner finishes unbeaten or whether the Michigan-Ohio State winner is the only 12-0 in the country, it will be time to hunker down. If it's a 12-0 vs. an 11-1 on Jan. 8, the people in charge will want the tarnished one to have national star power. For that reason, they could become big fans of a school with a splendid academic reputation and a not-so-fearsome nickname.

I'm talking about Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights. If things fall right, or wrong from the BCS perspective, the boys will need Rutgers to beat the winner of West Virginia-Louisville.

In the BCS rankings, here's the latest:

Ohio State, Michigan, USC and West Virginia are ranked 1-4 and each is unbeaten. Once-beaten Texas is No. 5 and unbeaten Louisville is No. 6.

The Ohio State-Michigan game on Nov. 18 is already being trumpeted as the ultimate and there will be gasps if either is less than 11-0. Given that, the winner is in the title game.

The need is for a No. 2 and that's where it gets sticky.

An unbeaten USC vs. either of the Big Ten teams would knock 'em dead, a can't miss for football fans. But, the Trojans have had some close calls and they still have at least two legitimate challenges - Nov. 18 vs. California and Nov. 25 vs. Notre Dame. Each has lost once and each is in the top 10 in the BCS.

For the squirm of it, let's say USC loses one of those games. In that case, the winner of Louisville-West Virginia on Nov. 2 would be in position to play for the national championship if it posts 12-0. For that reason, the BCS people might want to sing along:

"March, men of Rutgers,

Down the field today,

March to another score,

Foward to the fray"

Rutgers plays Louisville on Nov. 9 and West Virginia on Dec. 2.

If the Cardinals or the Mountaineers finish unbeaten, the critics can choose sides - complain about the snubbing of a 12-0 team or the inclusion of a 12-0 team from the Big East.

Just Saturday, driving home from Fayetteville, one of the experts on ESPN said Louisville would have already lost three or four times if it was in the SEC. That's a bit harsh, but the strength of schedule argument is a no-risk proposition. Louisville and West Virginia have no control over the fact that they are in the Big East, a league where UConn, Syracuse and others are part of the national scene, but in basketball.

To many, Louisville is basketball coach Rick Pitino or Denny Crum. The Cardinals' best known football alum might be Johnny Unitas of 50-something years ago. Coincidentally, he is in the NFL Hall of Fame with West Virginia's best-ever, linebacker Sam Huff.

The Cardinals have had a nice run under Bobby Petrino the past few years, but a 10-1 Louisville had to settle for the Liberty Bowl after the 2004 season and Memphis is a far cry from Glendale, Ariz.

West Virginia was unbeaten in both 1988 and 1993 and did play in a national championship game, losing the Fiesta Bowl to Notre Dame after the '88 season.

The school's one-year rushing record is held by the not-so-familiar Avon Cobourne, and he's only four years removed from Morgantown. At USC, the single-season rushing leaders are named O.J., Reggie, and Marcus.

The lack of history is not a condemnation of Louisville or West Virginia, just a note about marketability.

For something to ponder, imagine that the Ohio State-Michigan winner is the only unbeaten team in the country and that their game was a double overtime classic, 35-34. Can you spell R-E-M-A-T-C-H?
[/FONT]

 

[Buckeye86]

Anyone see Weis bitching on sports center about how they got jumped in the BCS by a team that played the "exact same game" (meaning they came from behind for the win I assume, even though Texas was on the road, against a much higher quality opponent) and a team that didn't play (Louisville I think).

Like Notre Dame doesn't get enough unfair advantages in the BCS as it is. I'll tell you why you got jumped fatass, you barely beat a shitty UCLA team at home. I can't stand Notre Dame or their coach more and more every day.

If Notre Dame played the eight teams ahead of them in the BCS, they would get crushed against six of the teams and I would put my money on West Virginia and Louisville to win too.

 

[CookyPuss]

Anyone see Weis bitching on sports center about how they got jumped in the BCS by a team that played the "exact same game" (meaning they came from behind for the win I assume, even though Texas was on the road, against a much higher quality opponent) and a team that didn't play (Louisville I think).
quote]

You mean this guy:

Can you say seperated at birth?

 

[Thump]

Weis questions why Notre Dame is slipping in polls

Associated Press





SOUTH BEND, Ind. -- Charlie Weis isn't sure Notre Dame is a top 10-caliber team.


"One of the teams [Tennessee] that jumped us had the same game that we had. Another team [Florida] that jumped us wasn't even playing. They were home eating cheeseburgers and they end up jumping us. That befuddles me." -- Charlie Weis



He's convinced, though, the 11th-ranked Fighting Irish didn't deserve to be jumped in the polls and the Bowl Championship Series Standings after a last-minute win over UCLA.

"One of the teams [Tennessee] that jumped us had the same game that we had. They're down, they're playing at home and they win by a field goal," Weis said Tuesday. "Another team [Florida] that jumped us wasn't even playing. They were home eating cheeseburgers and they end up jumping us. That befuddles me."

Clemson jumped ahead of Notre Dame in The Associated Press Top 25 poll with a 31-7 victory over Georgia Tech, a team the Irish struggled to beat 14-10 in the season opener. The Irish dropped two spots to No. 10 in the coaches' poll after Florida, which had a bye, and Tennessee, which came back from seven points down to beat Alabama 16-13 with a touchdown with 3:28 left, moved ahead of the Irish.

Texas, which needed a 22-yard field goal to beat Nebraska 22-20 with 23 seconds left, passed the Irish in the BCS standings, dropping the Irish to No. 9.

"Tell me how that works?" Weis said. "Maybe I'm just stupid. Tell me how that works?"

It was the second time this season the Irish dropped in the polls following a win. After beating Georgia Tech, they fell from No. 2 to No 4 in the AP and from third to fifth in the coaches' poll. They also fell from No. 8 to No. 9 in the AP poll on their off week two weeks ago.

Weis, though, said the biggest concern for the Irish isn't the polls. He said they simply need to keep winning. They can clinch a spot in a BCS bowl -- and the $4.5 million that comes with it -- by finishing eighth or better in the final standings.

They still have an outside shot of making it to the national championship game -- but Weis admits they would need a lot of luck and help, especially with their next four games coming against the three military academies and North Carolina (1-6) before closing the regular season at USC.

"Let's be very practical here. Would I love for Notre Dame to play for the national championship this year? Absolutely," he said. "Is it a chance that it happens? Yeah, there's a chance. Because any team with one loss has a chance of playing for it."

But no team in recent memory has been beaten like the Irish were in their 47-21 loss to Michigan and come back and won a championship. The Irish not only have a bad loss, but they also have two near-misses in come-from-behind victories over Michigan State and UCLA. The offensive line has struggled repeatedly and the defense has given up many big plays.
Should the Irish be ranked in the top 10?

"I think we'll know that in about five weeks," he said. "We might be a top-five team in five weeks. But ask me that at the end of November. Because right now I couldn't answer that question."

 

[Jaxbuck]

"Tell me how that works?" Weis said. "Maybe I'm just stupid. Tell me how that works?"

Simple. You started out vastly overrated and the pollsters are making adjustments. You should be 4-3 but are 6-1. Take what luck your getting and shut the fuck up fat boy.

ND should be a 10-15 ranked team at best.

 

[Thump]

Simple. You started out vastly overrated and the pollsters are making adjustments. You should be 4-3 but are 6-1. Take what luck your getting and shut the fuck up fat boy.

ND should be a 10-15 ranked team at best.

Great stuff Jax!!

 

[Yertle]

13 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1)
"Good teams win games like that," Charlie Weis said of the UCLA victory. No argument here. Great teams, however, don't require miracle rallies to beat the Bruins or Michigan State, don't get outgained by Purdue, don't lead Stanford 14-3 at halftime and don't lose to 47-21 to anyone.
Next game: Saturday vs. Navy.


Perfectly said.

 

[Dryden]

This was posted in one of the ND threads elsewhere, but it requires repeating here in case you missed it:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=gallo/061025

 

[Mike80]

If Notre Dame played the eight teams ahead of them in the BCS, they would get crushed against six of the teams and I would put my money on West Virginia and Louisville to win too.

ND is 9th in the BCS. Anyone higher would smoke them, including Louisville and West Virginia.

But looking just behind them, you have Cal at 10, Tennessee at 11 and Clemson at 12....

I don't think ND would be favored in any game against any of those 3 teams....

 

[rocketman]

New coaches and AP polls out: