2010 tOSU Offense Discussion

[scarletngray]

Chuck and duck offense for Wiscy? Let's see. Wiscy backs their CBs ten yards off so the quick out should be there all day. They will cheat to Posey so Sanz and the other WR could have some plays.
And depending on how close to the LOS their safetys play, TP could have room for short, first down making runs.
What role will Stoney play in this scheme? Attack the safetys playing run close to the LOS?
How about some run plays to the edge? Or a misdirection play or two. CBs will be ten yards away and not a factor.

OSU 23 Bucky 19 Lots of field goals.
?
Do we finally get a kick return for a TD?

Yes, I am predicting that the BUCKS will have either a punt return or kickoff return for a TD. You heard it here first...

:osu:

 

[rocketman]

Not that it really matters but we're 8 weeks into the season and sitting at 6th nationally in scoring offense. From 2006 to 2009 we finished 8th, 41st, 43rd, and 49th respectively. Not too bad...

 

[Tlangs]

Not that it really matters but we're 8 weeks into the season and sitting at 6th nationally in scoring offense. From 2006 to 2009 we finished 8th, 41st, 43rd, and 49th respectively. Not too bad...

and yet this could be the team that misses a BCS game.... :(

 

[1926Buckeyes]

and yet this could be the team that misses a BCS game.... :(

True it's possible, but I think the game at Iowa is looking better and better for OSU. I think they upset MSU and it'll be tough then for them to get up for a 3rd big time game in a row, even if it's at home.

Also, this offense is going to be more run heavy (IMO) against Iowa than it was against Wisconsin. No doubt Pryor throws ~20-25 passes, but I don't see them opening the game with three straight passes and I think that will do wonders. Establish the run game as was done against Purdue and make the defense choose who to stop. Then gradually unleash Pryor and have a big 2nd quarter, which seems to be the best scoring quarter for the offense this year.

Boom and Hall will be very important in regards to OSU's success against Iowa and if they get to a BCS bowl, in that game as well. Pryor is close, but not quite there where he can dictate an elite defense and get 300+ total yards away form home.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Not that it really matters but we're 8 weeks into the season and sitting at 6th nationally in scoring offense. From 2006 to 2009 we finished 8th, 41st, 43rd, and 49th respectively. Not too bad...

Against Miami, Illinois and Wisconsin: 22 ppg
Against Marshall, OU, EMU, IU and Purdue: 49.6 ppg

The national rank is nice but a little misleading.

Miami is still the only "good" defense they have scored a lot more than the the opponents defensive average against.

 

[Meyer]

Actually Jax we are averaging 26 vs. Wisky, Illinois, and Miami....

36 plus 24 plus 18= 78

78/3= 26

 

[Jaxbuck]

Actually Jax we are averaging 26 vs. Wisky, Illinois, and Miami....

36 plus 24 plus 18= 78

78/3= 26

my bad

 

[rocketman]

Ahem...

Not that it really matters...

Our offense vs. legit competition isn't exactly something to write home about.

 

[Meyer]

my bad

its not ok haha just kidding i dont care just helping out

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

BB73 and I were talking a few weeks ago about red zone offense and the statistical measure of it. I posted a rebuttal to something Cinci said in the rankings thread, but figured the info was germane here. So, here goes...

Here are the rankings of how many points a team scores per red zone appearance. So, if a team is in the RZ 4 times, kicks 4 FGs, it'll be 3.00. If they score 2 TDs (and get their extra points) and nothing else, it'll also be 3.50. And so on.

(the first number represents "traditional" red zone ranks (according to NCAA site))

7 Southern California 6.04
5 TCU 5.95
15 Wisconsin 5.90
28 South Carolina 5.85
15 UCF 5.83
8 Kansas St. 5.83
3 East Carolina 5.71
15 Arkansas 5.70
2 Oklahoma St. 5.70
28 Army 5.67
19 Kentucky 5.66
36 Iowa 5.63
52 Michigan 5.58
5 California 5.57
8 Ohio St. 5.48
41 Oregon St. 5.48
47 SMU 5.46
19 Houston 5.46
8 Florida St. 5.44
8 Stanford 5.43
19 Utah 5.42
8 Washington 5.41
47 Ohio 5.41
28 Boise St. 5.41
41 Air Force 5.34
8 Georgia Tech 5.31
36 Oregon 5.29
28 Arkansas St. 5.28
28 Auburn 5.23
68 Clemson 5.22
59 Middle Tenn. 5.22
68 Oklahoma 5.22
19 Idaho 5.21
19 Virginia Tech 5.21
19 Utah St. 5.21
47 Western Ky. 5.20
36 Fresno St. 5.19
52 Nevada 5.19
59 Maryland 5.17
28 Iowa St. 5.13
28 North Carolina 5.12
1 Memphis 5.11
75 Eastern Mich. 5.10
52 UTEP 5.10
15 Minnesota 5.10
19 Georgia 5.08
41 Mississippi 5.07
41 Texas A&M 5.07
75 Marshall 5.07
36 Michigan St. 5.06
19 Connecticut 5.04
66 FIU 5.00
28 Rice 4.96
52 Cincinnati 4.96
47 Kent St. 4.95
52 Tulsa 4.95
68 Western Mich. 4.94
19 Missouri 4.91
75 Texas Tech 4.91
59 Wake Forest 4.89
80 Nebraska 4.88
91 Arizona 4.87
106 Florida 4.87
59 Alabama 4.86
3 Illinois 4.83
8 Duke 4.83
47 Indiana 4.82
52 Tulane 4.80
80 Bowling Green 4.79
112 La.-Lafayette 4.71
103 Mississippi St. 4.68
103 Navy 4.68
59 UNLV 4.67
59 Notre Dame 4.63
87 Toledo 4.63
87 West Virginia 4.63
59 Northern Ill. 4.62
68 Northwestern 4.61
91 Miami (FL) 4.61
87 South Fla. 4.61
101 Colorado 4.58
41 Pittsburgh 4.57
80 Vanderbilt 4.57
68 Southern Miss. 4.56
52 BYU 4.56
98 UCLA 4.56
66 Hawaii 4.55
68 Purdue 4.52
41 San Diego St. 4.52
80 Louisiana Tech 4.50
112 Washington St. 4.50
101 Temple 4.46
106 Central Mich. 4.45
106 Virginia 4.43
106 New Mexico 4.36
98 Akron 4.35
68 Syracuse 4.33
91 Troy 4.32
80 Ball St. 4.32
98 North Carolina St 4.26
36 Colorado St. 4.22
75 North Texas 4.15
91 Louisville 4.14
114 La.-Monroe 4.13
80 LSU 4.11
87 Texas 4.09
80 Baylor 4.06
116 Kansas 4.04
91 Fla. Atlantic 3.85
118 UAB 3.81
118 Wyoming 3.81
91 Miami (OH) 3.81
106 New Mexico St 3.80
115 Arizona St. 3.76
75 San Jose 3.67
103 Rutgers 3.65
106 Penn St. 3.64
91 Boston College 3.59
116 Tennessee 3.59
120 Buffalo 3.42

Some interesting things in there - a lot of Big Ten teams towards the top (Wiscy, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State) SEC is lead by South Carolina and Kentucky... Auburn is well back, and Alabama even more so. Etc.

 

[BigJim]

Here are the rankings of how many points a team scores per red zone appearance. So, if a team is in the RZ 4 times, kicks 4 FGs, it'll be 3.00. If they score 2 TDs (and get their extra points) and nothing else, it'll also be 3.50. And so on.

(the first number represents "traditional" red zone ranks (according to NCAA site))

Nice... What exactly is the "traditional" red zone rank based on? I always wondered why they wouldn't just use points per appearance like you did. Makes so much more sense.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

Nice... What exactly is the "traditional" red zone rank based on? I always wondered why they wouldn't just use points per appearance like you did. Makes so much more sense.

I think the traditional ranking is a simple percentage of number of scores (any score, TD or FG) in number of opportunity. So, Ohio State has 40 scores in 44 opps, or 91 % RZ offense. But, as you know, that 91% doesn't really tell you much. 40FG in 44 trips wouldn't be as good as 40TDs in 44 attempts, but the 91% would look the same.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I think the traditional ranking is a simple percentage of number of scores (any score, TD or FG) in number of opportunity. So, Ohio State has 40 scores in 44 opps, or 91 % RZ offense. But, as you know, that 91% doesn't really tell you much. 40FG in 44 trips wouldn't be as good as 40TDs in 44 attempts, but the 91% would look the same.

I think one minior inference I could see making from this is the skill of a teams FG kicker. If they are good in the traditional ranking but poor in ppa ranking a person could infer A) the kicker is good B) the offense sucks C) the playcalling in the RZ sucks D) some combination of A-C.

The opposite would seem more clear cut. Our friends from up north for instance are 58th in the traditional measure but almost top 10% of all CFB in the ppa measure. I don't think there is any doubt that is an indictment on the ability of their FG team.

All in all though, the bottom teams in ppa are essentially the bottom teams in the traditional measure and same for the top teams. I think the ppa approach is a better indicator but it still tells you the same basic story. I like the ppa as it gives you a clear range of what is good, bad and ugly and where on the curve a certain team falls.

If you were using it to handicap a game however you would need to keep in mind the DBB model of differential performance. A great PPA number means less than seeing how far above, or below, it was than the opponents average.

 

[Taosman]

We are starting to have an identity on offense now. And it's looking like a mostly I formation offense which I just love. Same look all the time but ability to run lots of different stuff.

 

[matcar]

We are starting to have an identity on offense now. And it's looking like a mostly I formation offense which I just love. Same look all the time but ability to run lots of different stuff.

I'll need to see it against Iowa to believe that is our identity, but if it IS our identity, and we do it well, I think that would spell trouble for any opponent. This would open up even more opportunities for play-action...and TP has done a lot of damage off of play-action.