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2013 Preseason and regular polls

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Projected Preseason AP Top 26

For the past several years I have projected the preseason AP Top 10 nearly six months in advance and I have correctly projected at least nine of the Top 10 teams each year. It is one of my more popular blogs in the off-season and last year with its overwhelming popularity I decided to expand it for the first time to 24 teams! The initial year results were stunning as all 24 teams did in fact make the AP Top 24 in August! This year I have decided to expand it yet again to 26 teams as I feel that all 26 of these teams have a great chance at making the AP Top 25 when it is released in August.

I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today?s blog that this is NOT MY preseason Top 26 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 26 to come out at the start of the season. I have also strategically projected 26 teams and not 25 because I feel one of the bottom 3-4 teams could slip due to injuries, suspensions, transfers or preseason magazine projections.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WR's is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the off-season. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly six months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from now to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc. If you want to see how I have performed with my Top 10 projections refer to my February 5 blog. Also it should be noted that a couple of teams have been moved up or down to reflect what has happened since that last blog, which includes national signing day.

Now let?s take a look at this year's projected Preseason AP Top 26 and keep in mind again these are NOT MY preseason Top 26 teams!

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No. 2 Ohio State-Despite the NCAA probation, Urban Meyer’s first season in Columbus was a smashing success finishing a perfect 12-0 and No. 3 in the final AP poll and it looks like the Buckeyes will continue to ride that momentum into 2013. First, they welcome back quarterback Braxton Miller who figures to be one of the Heisman favorites after a season in which he had 3,310 yards of total offense and will look to be improved in the passing game. He will have plenty of talent surrounding him as No. 2 rusher Carlos Hyde and their top two receivers Corey Brown and Devin Smith all return along with key offensive lineman Andrew Norwell and Jack Mewhort. The Buckeyes do have to replace their entire starting defensive line, but Meyer has done a great job of recruiting at that position in his short tenure while the D’s other stars in linebacker Ryan Shazier and cornerback Bradley Roby should help fill the void as the young lineman mature. The schedule clearly sets up for success as the non-conference features Buffalo, San Diego State, California and Florida A&M while in conference play they avoid both Nebraska and Michigan State while hosting Wisconsin and Penn State. The two toughest hurdles look to be road trips at Northwestern and at Michigan.
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Buckeyes take lead in 2013 Top 25- ESPN.com

Buckeyes take lead in 2013 Top 25
Originally Published: April 29, 2013
By Mark Schlabach | ESPN.com

The NFL draft is over, giving college football coaches around the country another reminder of the star players they'll be missing this fall.

Spring practice has finished at most college campuses, and coaches will head into the summer knowing their teams' strengths and weaknesses.

There's a new No. 1 in the third edition of the 2013 Way-Too-Early Preseason Top 25. Ohio State, which went 12-0 in coach Urban Meyer's first season, jumps two-time defending national champion Alabama for the top spot. I'm not saying the Buckeyes are a better football team than the Crimson Tide; I'm saying Ohio State has an easier path to an undefeated record this coming season.

Also moving up: Oregon, Louisville, South Carolina and Michigan.

Moving down: Stanford, Texas A&M, Florida and LSU.

Say hello to USC and Wisconsin. Say goodbye to Oregon State and Vanderbilt.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Previous rank: 3
In case you haven't noticed, Urban Meyer still hasn't lost a game as Ohio State's coach. Now, here's the scary part for the rest of the Big Ten: the Buckeyes might be more talented and face a much easier schedule in 2013 than they did last season, when they went 12-0 in Meyer's first season at OSU. Yes, the Buckeyes have to replace most of their front seven on defense, but Meyer and his staff have recruited very well to rebuild that side of the ball. Sophomore defensive ends Noah Spence and Adolphus Washington look like future stars; they combined for seven sacks in OSU's spring game. Michael Bennett and Tommy Schutt emerged as potential difference-makers on the interior defensive line, and Curtis Grant and Joshua Perry look like they might be able to help at linebacker. Quarterback Braxton Miller's work with passing guru George Whitfield also seems to be paying off; he completed 16 of 25 passes for 217 yards in the spring game. Another perfect season isn't out of the question for OSU in 2013. It doesn't play Nebraska or Michigan State during the regular season and gets Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State at home. Sure, the Buckeyes might have to defeat an SEC opponent to win a BCS National Championship, but Meyer already has proved he's capable of doing it.

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Hmmm indeed...

Doug Lesmerises ‏@PDBuckeyes

Hmm. http://ESPN.com happened to redo early top 25 for '13, move Ohio State to No. 1 same day 3 OSU night games on ABC/ESPN announced
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After all the bitching we do about the way Ohio State and the B1G are covered in relation to other programs and conferences it would be nice if the Buckeyes were back to enjoying Most Favored Nation status once more, even if the reasons are transparent and a bit flimsy.

On the other hand, I can't help but be wary of four-lettered sports and entertainment networks bearing gifts.
 
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AuTX Buckeye;2333482; said:
I refuse to give ESPN any clicks... but those of you who aren't opposed please post what they said about A&M so I can smack talk my friend :)
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Here you go
6. Texas A&M Aggies

Previous rank: 4
Sure, SEC opponents might be more prepared to slow down Aggies quarterback Johnny Manziel in his second season in the league. But shouldn't Johnny Football be more prepared to run the Aggies' spread offense in his second year as a starter, too? With perhaps the country's deepest stable of running backs and receiver Mike Evans coming back, the Aggies aren't going to have problems scoring points this coming season. Freshman receiver Ja'Quay Williams and tight end Cameron Clear also look like they'll be able to help right away. There wasn't much of a transition this spring after offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury left to become Texas Tech's new coach. But defensive coordinator Mark Snyder has to replace seven starters, including star linebacker Sean Porter and defensive lineman Damontre Moore. Junior college transfer Tommy Sanders should take over Porter's spot, and Snyder hopes Julien Obioha, Brandon Alexander and Tyrell Taylor can emerge as consistent pass-rushers.
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Zurp;2333481; said:
Who is this "ESPN" guy and why does he think he'll gain my favor for putting Ohio State at #1? Besides, any poll that doesn't have Alabama #1, and another 7 SEC teams included in the top 10 can't be worth the paper its written on.
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Obviously you're kidding, but the first part about Alabama not being #1 is actually silly. Any team who's won 3 out of the last 4 NC, while also raking in top 5 recruiting classes, and also returns their senior 3 year starting QB, should be #1. OSU should be #2.
 
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UpNorth_Buckeye;2333493; said:
Obviously you're kidding, but the first part about Alabama not being #1 is actually silly. Any team who's won 3 out of the last 4 NC, while also raking in top 5 recruiting classes, and also returns their senior 3 year starting QB, should be #1. OSU should be #2.
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To be fair to Schlabach, he did say:

I'm not saying the Buckeyes are a better football team than the Crimson Tide; I'm saying Ohio State has an easier path to an undefeated record this coming season.
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No doubt that Alabama is the most talented team in the country...the question is whether they will be the best team and will they make it to the NCG.
 
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UpNorth_Buckeye;2333493; said:
Obviously you're kidding, but the first part about Alabama not being #1 is actually silly. Any team who's won 3 out of the last 4 NC, while also raking in top 5 recruiting classes, and also returns their senior 3 year starting QB, should be #1. OSU should be #2.
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Yeah Bama locks and reloads but its hard seeing them repeating their dominance this season when they lost almost their entire OL to the NFL...they were as dominant as any OL I've seen at the college level and you can't just replace that. Now they have big names back like McCarron, Cooper, Yeldon, and other big recruits are coming in, but everything hinges on the OL development. That is a big question mark. Then they had Milliner, Williams, Nico Johnson, etc. get drafted on defense and DePriest just brook his foot (not sure how soon he will be back). We have our question marks to be sure but not as many as they do and not even close to the same strength of schedule. I can see the argument.
 
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UpNorth_Buckeye;2333493; said:
Obviously you're kidding, but the first part about Alabama not being #1 is actually silly. Any team who's won 3 out of the last 4 NC, while also raking in top 5 recruiting classes, and also returns their senior 3 year starting QB, should be #1. OSU should be #2.
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I was joking that 8 SEC teams TRULY belong in the Top 10. I was also joking about whether I put any merit in this, or any other preseason ranking. I could give 14 hoots who the #1 team is, Ohio State or otherwise. However, if I had to care, I'd say that Alabama should be #1, as far as the best team goes. But they also have a tougher schedule (in my IMO) and have a bigger target on their backs. Ohio State has the easier road to the BCS NCG. Based on that, maybe they deserve to be #1.

Meh - again... 14 hoots.
 
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