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- Thread starter OHSportsFan
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mendensa
Legend
Sorry, slight oversight. Giving them too much credit, I guess. Looking ahead and feeling optimistic or maybe just praying they find a way. My bad. One time that I don't mind being wrong....lol. It just strengthens my argument. ONLY 2 QUALITY WINS on their schedule thus far. Does everyone think they are comfortably in or am I completely off my rocker?
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mendensa
Legend
Yeah, that was before back to back losses to MSU and UM. We were all talking a 6 seed in the NCAA's two weeks ago. With a potential loss to Wisconsin on the horizon, and sprinkle in another "L" in the regular season and/or post-season and it's looking sketchy all of a sudden. If they finish at 10 or under losses they are in, they get to 11 losses and that 11th is in the 1st rd of the conference tourney and they are treading water as one of the last four in or out.
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buckeyesin07
Veni. Vidi. Vici.
I think this is right, except I think the loss numbers stated above apply to regular season losses. In other words, OSU is in a very good spot to get a bid right now, sitting at 19-8 overall, and 8-6 in conference. Split the remaining 4 games (3 of which are at home), and OSU is in at 21-10 overall, 10-8 in conference, regardless of what they do in the BTT. Go 1-3 in those 4 games, and things get really dicey at 20-11 overall and 9-9 in conference, especially if they top that off with an early exit in the BTT.
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Bulls-Eye
Senior
If Ohio State loses two of their last four and finish 21-10/10-8 with their only "quality" wins being IU and Maryland at home, I will be VERY nervous come Selection Sunday. They will have proven they cannot beat anyone with a pulse away from Columbus, and will have lost 5 games to Iowa, Purdue, and Michigan. Their resume would be paper thin with an RPI probably in the 50's (currently 45).
The more I think of it, I'd be almost shocked if they made the tournament with that resume, unless they won two or more games in the B1G tournament.
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buckeyesin07
Veni. Vidi. Vici.
This isn't 10 years ago when good teams were on the bubble and left out--with 68 teams now in the tournament, some teams that are decent at best get in each year. 21-10 with a beat-down win against Maryland, an easy win against Indiana, and a blowout win against Illinois (a bubble team) will be good enough. I'm not saying that's an impressive resume, but you don't need an impressive resume anymore to get into the tournament.
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mendensa
Legend
But if you don't have an impressive resume (show the ability to beat any quality teams) you allow the committee to nit-pick and every year it seems they weigh their criteria for getting in a little differently. The two constants: quality wins and non-con scheduling. OSU has neither working in their favor. Although against an unimpressive looking NE team, last night was convincing. Another couple of those and they are a lock. I just had a hard time automatically putting them in, buckeyesin07, at 21-11 and losing 5 of last 7, with a loss in the 1st round of the Big 10 tourney. That would have be a dreadful and unworthy finish for any team trying to get in.
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HenryMuto
Legend
They really don't look at the margin of victory it's pretty much win or lose situation. Ohio State by most accounts is an 8 seed right now. So while pretty safe if they really needed those last couple wins vs Purdue and Penn State to feel secure. If they lose to Wisky then in the 1st round of the Big 10 tourney against a team like Northwestern or Michigan or Minnesota then you could be looking at 9/10 seed situation. I think they are pretty much a lock but the seeding could use some work. Beat Wisky then win a couple games in the Big 10 tourney and get to the semis then maybe just maybe they can get to the 6 line similar to how they got to the 6 line last year making the semis but the difference last year they got a huge win on the road at Wisky and had a couple other decent road wins this year we got nothing on the road so maybe 7 seed is our ceiling without making the Big 10 Finals.
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If Scott/Thompson/Russell can play efficiently and score the ball, I think Ohio State has a good shot at beating Wisconsin.
Look at virtually all of Wisconsin's recent games - anyone with decent guard play has given them fits. Maryland beat them with one guard going off (Dez Wells) and ensuring the rest of Wisconsin's team struggled other than Kaminsky.
Kaminsky is going to get his points. The key is limiting his other teammates from getting double digits.
BTW this is why Wisconsin probably won't win a National Title this year - their guard play is average at best.
Look at virtually all of Wisconsin's recent games - anyone with decent guard play has given them fits. Maryland beat them with one guard going off (Dez Wells) and ensuring the rest of Wisconsin's team struggled other than Kaminsky.
Kaminsky is going to get his points. The key is limiting his other teammates from getting double digits.
BTW this is why Wisconsin probably won't win a National Title this year - their guard play is average at best.
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BuckeyeMafia
A Leaf on the Wind
Ohio State is definitely tournament bound, no questions there. I think this Wisconsin game and the subsequent Big Ten tournament will determine how far they go in the actual tournament. Seeding is monumental this year, especially when you consider the fact that the top 8 ranked teams (likely your 1 and 2 seeds) have no more than 3 losses each. Lunardi currently has Ohio State as an 8 seed in Kentucky's region. If they were to beat the 9 seed, they'd be an... unenviable position, at best. The best case scenario is a convincing win over Wisconsin and Big Ten tournament champs. I think that would vault them into the 6 seed and give them a winnable third round (second round) game against a 3 seed.
You've got to beat the best to be the best, yada yada yada, but I think the NCAA is extremely top heavy this year. I would be absolutely shocked if Ohio State made it beyond the Elite Eight, and even that is a stretch. I think their current seeding is a damning proposition, so even if they were to lose badly to Wisconsin and drop their first BTT game, they'd be better off as a 10 or 11 seed than an 8 or 9 seed. You do not want Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, or Villanova, and Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, and Wichita State aren't much better.
You've got to beat the best to be the best, yada yada yada, but I think the NCAA is extremely top heavy this year. I would be absolutely shocked if Ohio State made it beyond the Elite Eight, and even that is a stretch. I think their current seeding is a damning proposition, so even if they were to lose badly to Wisconsin and drop their first BTT game, they'd be better off as a 10 or 11 seed than an 8 or 9 seed. You do not want Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, or Villanova, and Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, and Wichita State aren't much better.
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