mross34
Rock, Flag, and Eagle
tOSU's 2008 "Magic Number"
I started talking about this last week in BB73's nice thread about tOSU's NCG chances. But since I'm from New Jersey, and because all people from New Jersey are self-important, I'm starting my own thread. Bada bing, bada boom, it's done.
So the win over Wisconsin took a year or two off of my life, but it's a win nonetheless. Before I take a look at where we're at after this past weekend, I'd like to make a small change to my number from last week.
Last week I said we needed 33 losses to occur for us to have a pretty good chance at the title game. I'm going back and making an amendment to that and saying that we need 34. However unlikely it may be, if Notre Dame wins out and beats USC in the process, they'd probably go into the title game over a 1-loss Buckeye squad. I think UNC, Va. Tech, and Cincinnati all would get left out with 1 loss over a Buckeye team with the same number of losses. With two of these games under our control (Northwestern and Penn State), the magic number going into last week should have been 32 and not 31.
On to this past weekend's action.
First off, let's take a look at the 6 "win-win" games I mentioned last week between two teams that tOSU both needs to lose (home team in CAPS).
ALABAMA 17, Kentucky 14
Missouri 52, NEBRASKA 17
Texas 38, COLORADO 14
Texas Tech 58, KANSAS STATE 28
SOUTHERN CAL 44, Oregon 10
VANDERBILT 14, Auburn 13
All in all, these games didn't turn out too well. A few chances for home underdogs to do us a favor and not coming through. Kentucky had a chance to knock one of the legs out from under Bama, who had looked invincible until this week, and didn't come through. On the bright side, I think the best possible way for USC to lose is another sleepwalking type game against a heavy underdog like they did with OrSU. A loss to Oregon at home would have made our loss to USC look that much worse.
Pleasant surprises? (Keep in mind I wrote the first post after the USF loss and the Utah win)
NORTH CAROLINA 38, UConn 12
Not like any of us actually thought UConn was an actual player in the NCG hunt, but the Big East is weak enough that they could have tiptoed their way into the NCG ahead of us had they somehow finished unbeaten. On a side note, how about Butch Davis at UNC. He's doing a phenomenal job and they're a tipped ball against Miami away from being a top 15 team and smack in the middle of this discussion.
Close calls?
Kansas 35, IOWA STATE 33
Knocking Kansas out of the NCG picture entirely would have been nice, but I don't think they're a true player anyway.
Magic Number?
Going into Friday's games, I said the magic number was 25. With the UConn loss, and the addition of Notre Dame to the list, the number stays just there.
This week's slate?
3 games "win-win" games tOSU needs both teams to lose in.
Texas-Oklahoma (at the Cotton Bowl) - Texas still has to play Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Kansas after this game. I'll be pulling for them as I don't think they can make it through those 4 games and the Big 12 CCG without dropping two.
Oklahoma State at Missouri - Missouri scares me; Oklahoma State does not. Advantage Missouri. I'll be pulling for the Cowboys in this one.
LSU at Florida - Florida already has one loss and with what I've seen from them this year, I'm not tremendously impressed. I'll be pulling for Florida to pull off the upset and give LSU it's first loss of the year.
So at the very least, tOSU's magic number will be dropped to 22.
Potential Upsets?
1) ASU at USC - This is ASU's superbowl. They we're a supposed top 15 team coming into this year, and now with 3 losses, this and the Arizona games are the only two games left that matter. With USC's tendency to sleepwalk after big games, this could be one to watch. Of course, if USC shows up before the 4th quarter, this game is a blowout.
2) Vanderbilt at Mississippi State - I'm not sold on Vanderbilt. I know the defense is good, but so is MSU's. The Bulldogs held Auburn to 3 points last time they played at home
3) Colorado at Kansas - Kansas struggled mightily with Iowa State. Colorado is a much better offensive football team than Iowa State. I would have this at number 1, but I'm not sure how much of an upset it really is.
The Bucks?
Another week, another win, and we looked a little better than last week, when considering the competition. Beanie is Beanie and Pryor is showing he might be a little more like Vince Young than even initially thought. The kid is clearly a winner.
This week I have a feeling the 'Shoe is gonna be several notches higher in terms of intensity than we've seen all season. I think we handle Purdue.
OSU 34, Purdue 17.
Stay tuned. If we keep getting a little better every week, and the card fall into place, we might have a very special season on our hands.
I started talking about this last week in BB73's nice thread about tOSU's NCG chances. But since I'm from New Jersey, and because all people from New Jersey are self-important, I'm starting my own thread. Bada bing, bada boom, it's done.
So the win over Wisconsin took a year or two off of my life, but it's a win nonetheless. Before I take a look at where we're at after this past weekend, I'd like to make a small change to my number from last week.
Last week I said we needed 33 losses to occur for us to have a pretty good chance at the title game. I'm going back and making an amendment to that and saying that we need 34. However unlikely it may be, if Notre Dame wins out and beats USC in the process, they'd probably go into the title game over a 1-loss Buckeye squad. I think UNC, Va. Tech, and Cincinnati all would get left out with 1 loss over a Buckeye team with the same number of losses. With two of these games under our control (Northwestern and Penn State), the magic number going into last week should have been 32 and not 31.
On to this past weekend's action.
First off, let's take a look at the 6 "win-win" games I mentioned last week between two teams that tOSU both needs to lose (home team in CAPS).
ALABAMA 17, Kentucky 14
Missouri 52, NEBRASKA 17
Texas 38, COLORADO 14
Texas Tech 58, KANSAS STATE 28
SOUTHERN CAL 44, Oregon 10
VANDERBILT 14, Auburn 13
All in all, these games didn't turn out too well. A few chances for home underdogs to do us a favor and not coming through. Kentucky had a chance to knock one of the legs out from under Bama, who had looked invincible until this week, and didn't come through. On the bright side, I think the best possible way for USC to lose is another sleepwalking type game against a heavy underdog like they did with OrSU. A loss to Oregon at home would have made our loss to USC look that much worse.
Pleasant surprises? (Keep in mind I wrote the first post after the USF loss and the Utah win)
NORTH CAROLINA 38, UConn 12
Not like any of us actually thought UConn was an actual player in the NCG hunt, but the Big East is weak enough that they could have tiptoed their way into the NCG ahead of us had they somehow finished unbeaten. On a side note, how about Butch Davis at UNC. He's doing a phenomenal job and they're a tipped ball against Miami away from being a top 15 team and smack in the middle of this discussion.
Close calls?
Kansas 35, IOWA STATE 33
Knocking Kansas out of the NCG picture entirely would have been nice, but I don't think they're a true player anyway.
Magic Number?
Going into Friday's games, I said the magic number was 25. With the UConn loss, and the addition of Notre Dame to the list, the number stays just there.
This week's slate?
3 games "win-win" games tOSU needs both teams to lose in.
Texas-Oklahoma (at the Cotton Bowl) - Texas still has to play Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Kansas after this game. I'll be pulling for them as I don't think they can make it through those 4 games and the Big 12 CCG without dropping two.
Oklahoma State at Missouri - Missouri scares me; Oklahoma State does not. Advantage Missouri. I'll be pulling for the Cowboys in this one.
LSU at Florida - Florida already has one loss and with what I've seen from them this year, I'm not tremendously impressed. I'll be pulling for Florida to pull off the upset and give LSU it's first loss of the year.
So at the very least, tOSU's magic number will be dropped to 22.
Potential Upsets?
1) ASU at USC - This is ASU's superbowl. They we're a supposed top 15 team coming into this year, and now with 3 losses, this and the Arizona games are the only two games left that matter. With USC's tendency to sleepwalk after big games, this could be one to watch. Of course, if USC shows up before the 4th quarter, this game is a blowout.
2) Vanderbilt at Mississippi State - I'm not sold on Vanderbilt. I know the defense is good, but so is MSU's. The Bulldogs held Auburn to 3 points last time they played at home
3) Colorado at Kansas - Kansas struggled mightily with Iowa State. Colorado is a much better offensive football team than Iowa State. I would have this at number 1, but I'm not sure how much of an upset it really is.
The Bucks?
Another week, another win, and we looked a little better than last week, when considering the competition. Beanie is Beanie and Pryor is showing he might be a little more like Vince Young than even initially thought. The kid is clearly a winner.
This week I have a feeling the 'Shoe is gonna be several notches higher in terms of intensity than we've seen all season. I think we handle Purdue.
OSU 34, Purdue 17.
Stay tuned. If we keep getting a little better every week, and the card fall into place, we might have a very special season on our hands.
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