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Bracketology and Selection Sunday Discussion

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So these NET rankings don't make much sense. Penn State is higher in NET than Indiana, Ohio State, and Minnesota

Nebraska is higher than Ohio State and Minnesota.

It doesn't seem like it bodes well for us if the committee places a high emphasis on NET
 
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the NET is a bit wonky. I think it is probably especially wonky in the B1G this season with how much a cluster the middle of the conference is, how certain teams did really well in the non-con but then had huge struggles in conference play (OSU, IU, Nebraska), how a team like PSU had that big OOC win again VTech and then had an absolute miserable first half of B1G play where they didn't win a game and now they are winning and winning convincingly and have added more good wins. I think OSU is probably getting a little extra NET hurt from that home loss to Illinois during that one 4 or 5-game stretch where Illinois was playing really well--basically the Illini's only stretch of good play the entire season unless you count almost beating Gonzaga.

Anyways, yeah. It wasn't just that the B1G was pretty good this year. It was also pretty weird.
 
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yeah, it's especially wacky when u look at the teams across the country that have a couple really good Q1 wins but have horrible conference records and some really bad losses to go with those records. But those Q1 wins are really inflating their overall resumes despite their overall poor records and overall seasons.
 
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Undoubtedly, Q1 wins are by far the biggest factor now. Humans are still gonna pick the teams so it's not all about the NET, but the biggest priority for a team trying to make the Dance is not having a good record or avoiding bad losses, it's getting Q1 wins.

OSU doesn't have a lot of Q1 wins but it has more than a lot of the other bubble teams this year, which is basically the only reason we are still in the discussion. It becomes a kind of ouroboros, though, because what determines what makes a Q1 win is the location of the win and the opponent's NET ranking, so the NET sort of feeds itself and I think that might be resulting in some of the weirdness of how the rankings are turning out.

After the B1G's non-con performance this year basically every B1G game became a Q1 or Q2 game. And then the teams are just playing each other and their NET rankings go swirling around each other, especially in the middle of the conference who didn't really achieve any separation from each other. Sure, PSU lost, what, ten straight B1G games? But then they start winning most of their games, including games against top of the conference teams like scUM and MD, to go with their VTech win--and blammo, their NET surges upwards. Because the NET doesn't really care as much about all those losses. It cares about that Q1 goodness.
 
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Not that I should be getting ahead of myself but I'm getting worried about scenarios where we beat Indiana and still don't get in. All it takes is for the MAC and PAC-12 tournaments to get upset winners and boom two more spots are gone.
 
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mendensa said:
yeah, it's especially wacky when u look at the teams across the country that have a couple really good Q1 wins but have horrible conference records and some really bad losses to go with those records. But those Q1 wins are really inflating their overall resumes despite their overall poor records and overall seasons.
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nomatta said:
Undoubtedly, Q1 wins are by far the biggest factor now. Humans are still gonna pick the teams so it's not all about the NET, but the biggest priority for a team trying to make the Dance is not having a good record or avoiding bad losses, it's getting Q1 wins.
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You don't say?

Jake said:
But...but...Indiana has wins over Marquette, Louisville and Michigan State!

Sure, they're 10-14 in the rest of their games but quadrant wins, baby!

This selection process is entirely geared toward getting as many Power 5 teams in as possible.
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NIT is loading up on mid-majors and low-majors this year.
Bucknell
Lipscomb
Radford
Campbell
Hofstra
Belmont
Wright St
Drake
Loyola IL
FDU
South Dakota St
These teams are all guaranteed of being in the NIT if not selected to the NCAA tourney. There are several more mids that can still get NIT auto bids if they lose in their conference tourneys. I get that it is nice to reward mid-majors for a good season, but I'm not sure how much of a reward it really is, or of the wisdom of having a tournament that is 2/3 mid-majors and low-majors. Lately there has been like 11 or 12 high majors in the 32-team field. I guess if it is more profitable than having an even 50/50 balance with high majors then it's all good, but I doubt that is the case.
 
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