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Juniors leaving early - speculation thread

I don't see where these kids have any obligation whatsoever to their school or coach. If they are candidates for the pros it is pretty clear they have made a contribution to the school and the coaches 7 figure salary that far outweighs the value of the education they were provided.

Nobody ever questions someone like R J Coleman (nor am I) who received the same benefits with almost zero on the field contribution.

As for being ready - I was blown away to see Youboty projected as a first rounder, but that is where he is. I have been a buckeye fan all my life, but for a couple of million I will shave my head and have a Michigan helmet tattoed to my scalp. I owe it to my family.

All that said, it does make life hell for the HC. Ideally you lose four or five starters on each side of the ball each year. Not knowing who might be leaving early makes it tough to plan. (I can only imagine what DBs we might have been in on had we known a year ago we would be starting over in the backfield.)

What has really been frustrating is to never be able to get a D like last year on the field at the same time as the O we will have next season. (On the other hand, it is great that we don't have to play with last years O and next years D.)

But the good news is this. At every position where we are losing someone we have a young stud just waiting for an opportunity. These are mostly kids with two or three years in the program. Get out of Austin alive and that National Championship is right there for the taking - and with a D that could easily return 7 or 8 starters in 2007.

And finally, we have one thing next year we haven't had since 2003. Our DC is coming back - and he is a good one.
 
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SI

1/19

Winners and losers of the exodus

Which teams were most affected by draft decisions?

Posted: Wednesday January 18, 2006 10:57AM; Updated: Wednesday January 18, 2006 8:49PM

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Loser: Ohio State

Losing Santonio Holmes was one thing -- the junior, who will likely be the first receiver taken, was long assumed to be going pro. The Buckeyes still have a solid returning receiving corps with Ted Ginn Jr., Anthony Gonzalez and Roy Hall. The defections that really hurt were those of cornerback Ashton Youboty and safety Donte Whitner, both borderline first-rounders. OSU, already faced with replacing all three starting linebackers, lost its entire secondary as well.
The buzz out of the Fiesta Bowl, where Troy Smith and the Buckeyes put up 617 yards in a win over Notre Dame, was that OSU would be a logical preseason No. 1 headed into next season, but you don't see a whole lot of preseason No. 1s with two returning starters on defense. Coach Jim Tressel does have, however, some promising youngsters in the secondary. Freshman cornerback Malcolm Jenkins was the third-leading tackler in the Fiesta Bowl, and safety Jamario O'Neal was one of the nation's top recruits a year ago.

I saw this on SI.com the other day, and I can't say I disagree. :(
 
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Winning a national championship is always the goal and dream of every college team.
And winning the Super Bowl is the pinnacle of the sport, and I don't expect Ohio State will be playing in the Super Bowl anytime soon.

These kids have the choice between playing another year of college ball for nothing, or playing in the NFL for millions. Youboty and Whitner will make some good coin in the jump, and they can do so while they're healthy and not coming off a severe McGahee-like knee injury. If you can take the money, you take the money -- that's what these young men have been preparing for since they were five or six years old.

Youboty and Whitner were both early enrolls, near graduation and felt as though they were part of this years' senior class, so it was their time to move on. I don't suspect for a second that they ever had any less desire to win a national championship than Mike Doss or any other returning senior.

EDIT: I would point out though that this was expected of Youboty. It was probably surprising in the context that it was a bad year for Ashton overall, but not surprising he'd leave early. He had made it known from Day 1 of his recruitment that he wanted to be a DB at Ohio State because Ohio State is the place to play CB if you want to go to the pros.
 
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People keep forgetting about the effect that the cap on rookie salary/bonus that is going into effect next draft had on many kid's choices. If that cap wasn't taking place you'd see a lot fewer juniors taking a chance and jumping ship...
 
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i think that the final total was 56 underclassmen. That is almost two full rounds in the draft and is an insane number. No doubt that the potential rookie cap had much to do with it but those that return could be rewarded with an "inflated" salary due to a more shallow draft. I doubt if many agents were mentioning this to their prospective clients
 
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Just took a close look at what has happened to USC.

They are now returning 3 starters on O and 5 on D.

As for all important 'Senior Leadership' they will have one senior on either side of the ball who started this year.
 
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No doubt that the potential rookie cap had much to do with it but those that return could be rewarded with an "inflated" salary due to a more shallow draft. I doubt if many agents were mentioning this to their prospective clients
The key word being 'potential' rookie cap. There is no new CBA yet, so the looming signing bonus cap is all just speculation.
 
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http://www.sgvtribune.com/sports/ci_3393973
<table align="center" bgcolor="" border="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td>Decisions must be made
<!--subtitle--> USC players have until Sunday to decide on futures
<!--top author info--> <table align="center" border="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="articleByline"> <!-- overline--> By Billy Witz and Scott Wolf Staff Writers </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="articleBody" align="center" border="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td colspan="3" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" class="articleBody" align="left"> LOS ANGELES - At first glance, it would seem to be an easy decision for Winston Justice. If the USC offensive tackle gives up his senior season to enter the NFL, he'll probably be drafted somewhere in the middle of the first round, where he could reasonably expect a signing bonus upwards of $7 million. There are other incentives, too. Justice would relish the chance to test himself against professionals, he'd be happy to leave school at the same time as several friends, and he has the blessing of his parents, who originally had pushed him to finish his degree.
But it has not been an easy decision for Justice, nor for several other USC football players forced to decide their futures before Sunday's deadline for underclassmen to declare themselves eligible for the NFL draft.
LenDale White on Wednesday announced his decision to leave the Trojans early for the NFL. Reggie Bush is expected to do the same today. Justice, safety Darnell Bing and guard Fred Matua also are expected to leave early. Only receiver Steve Smith is expected to stick around for the 2006 season.
Only one school has had as many as four underclassmen drafted - Florida in 2002, when cornerback Lito Sheppard was drafted in the first round and tackle Mike Pearson and receivers Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney were chosen in the second.
The Trojans would likely have three juniors drafted in the first round: Bush, White and Justice, and if he goes, Bing could go anywhere from late in the first round to early in the third. Smith is considered a possible third-round pick.
"It's a tug of war," said agent Jerome Stanley, a USC graduate who represents former Trojans star Keyshawn Johnson. "Every kid in the last 30 days has thought at one point he was leaving. And at one point, he has had a counter thought. Even Reggie Bush at some point, even for a moment, thought. `What if I come back?"'
If Justice were to return, the athletic department's formidable publicity machine would push him for the Outland Trophy, he'd be given the opportunity to switch from right tackle to the left side, and if he works his way into a top five pick next year, he could expect to more than double his signing bonus.
The toughest part of leaving is telling USC coach Pete Carroll, who is leaning heavily on Justice to stay. It is a conversation Justice has put off for three days now.
"Pete Carroll has been a super coach and a mentor to my son," said Gary Justice, Winston's father. "Pete has been the kind of coach that when he recommends something, it's hard to turn down."
Carroll has been relying heavily on his power of persuasion in recent days, hoping to convince a talented group of underclassmen to return next season.
A year ago, quarterback Matt Leinart, prompted in part by a need for elbow surgery, returned. Linebacker Lofa Tatupu, who hoped to support his family, surprised just as many people by leaving.
"You look at other guys at your position group and how you stack yourself," said defensive end Lawrence Jackson, a third-year sophomore who briefly considered leaving. "Why go out if you have guys like Tamba Hali (Penn State) or Elvis Dumervil (Louisville)? They proved themselves over the course of time. You have to be real with yourself.
"LenDale and Reggie started and played for three years. If you can't get a good evaluation off that, you never will."
While the NFL provides a preliminary assessment of any underclassman's draft stock who requests it, players must declare their intentions more than three months before the late April draft. In that span, players will work out at the NFL Combine or their school, and will also have interviews with teams interested in drafting them - all things that can impact where they're chosen.
"Right now it's halftime," said agent Jamal Tooson, who represents former USC defensive end Kenechi Udeze, a projected No. 9 pick who fell to 20th when doctors discovered a shoulder injury at the NFL Combine.
"Once a player declares, they look at every game a guy has played and they start to factor in injuries, some of which they may not find out about until the combine."
The difference in money for high draft picks can be immense. Braylon Edwards, chosen third overall by Cleveland in 2005, received $20 million in guaranteed money. Mike Williams, the former USC receiver chosen 10th by Detroit, got a deal worth $10 million guaranteed.
Carroll uses Udeze and Williams as examples when he talks to his team, saying they would have benefited by returning to school, but Williams disagrees.
"The fact remains the same with me whether I came out or not," he said. "Braylon Edwards still ran faster. Troy Williamson (a receiver chosen seventh by Minnesota) would still run faster than me.
"Nobody really knows what will happen in the draft. Coach Carroll is not a GM. Nobody knows how it will play out until the commissioner calls your name."
Returning to school is not without its drawbacks, either. From an economic point of view, how much does a player need to improve his stock to earn back the money he didn't receive by staying in school? Also, by going back to school the player is one year further removed from free agency. Then there is the risk of injury.
Chicago Bears defensive end Adewale Ogunleye was projected as a borderline first-round pick at Indiana in 2000 but chose to return for his senior season. Midway through it, he blew out a knee and went undrafted.
"If I had it to do over again, I'd have left," said Ogunleye, who became a Pro Bowl player and earned a new contract. "But I can't complain. It made me understand very early that this is a business. One minute you're on top and then nobody cares about you."
And at USC right now, it is very much about business.
Considering that Bush and Leinart are likely to be among the top few picks, and that USC could have as many as five players chosen in the first round, there was somewhere in the neighborhood of $75 million in signing bonuses alone running around the practice fields at USC. The total value of the contracts could triple that.
If the standard cut for an agent is 3 percent, that's at least several million dollars in commissions to be had.
This led to competition that one veteran agent described as "out of control." Said another agent, who spoke on the condition of anonymity: "Most agents are ethical, but there's a lot that aren't ethical. Since there's so much money out there to get, some people have crossed the line to get it."
Neither agent would elaborate and said they knew of no instances where players were given money or anything that would violate NCAA rules.
However, that was one concern this fall when administrators banned agents from practice. Another was that so many of USC's best players are underclassmen. The more that return, the better the Trojans' prospects next season.
"There's no reason they should be able to (attend practice)," Carroll said. "They are not necessary at this stage. They'll do everything they can to make kids think otherwise. We'll give (players) everything they could possibly need. We'll do it without asking for fees. Our perspective is much clearer. We're acting in their best interests."
Some players and many agents believe Carroll is acting out of self-interest when he says players can earn more money by returning for their senior seasons, as he did with Leinart.
"Does Coach Carroll say he's wrong if Matt isn't the No. 1 pick now? " said Williams, who was forced to sit out last season when a court ruling allowing him to enter the NFL after his sophomore season was reversed."
Carroll recently brought in two former NFL personnel directors, Pat Kirwan and Joe Mendes, to counsel USC players on the draft. Kirwan, a close friend of Carroll who speaks to the Trojans on the subject each year, met individually with Bush, Justice and Bing.
However, some players privately questioned the reliability of the advice. Kirwan received a commission worth at least $120,000 from agent David Dunn for steering Carson Palmer to him three years ago. Kirwan has said he no longer has such agreements with agents.
</td></tr></tbody> </table>
 
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scout.com (free)

1/23/06

Nice article on Juniors leaving early by Charles Babb.

Perfect example from that article and how crucial it can be to stay for you senior year and shore up your draft position, even by 5-10 positions:

A.J. Hawk probably would have been a middle to late first round selection in 2005, but by staying he probably earned himself another $25,000,000 to $30,000,000. That’s not too shabby.
 
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